The performance of FLake in the Met Office Unified Model

We present results from the coupling of FLake to the Met Office Unified Model (MetUM). The coupling and initialisation are first described, and the results of testing the coupled model in local and global model configurations are presented. These show that FLake has a small statistical impact on screen temperature, but has the potential to modify the weather in the vicinity of areas of significant inland water. Examination of FLake lake ice has revealed that the behaviour of lakes in the coupled model is unrealistic in some areas of significant sub-grid orography. Tests of various modifications to ameliorate this behaviour are presented. The results indicate which of the possible model changes best improve the annual cycle of lake ice. As FLake has been developed and tuned entirely outside the Unified Model system, these results can be interpreted as a useful objective measure of the performance of the Unified Model in terms of its near-surface characteristics

Northern Eurasia Future Initiative (NEFI): facing the challenges and pathways of global change in the 21st century

During the past several decades, the Earth system has changed significantly, especially across Northern Eurasia. Changes in the socio-economic conditions of the larger countries in the region have also resulted in a variety of regional environmental changes that can have global consequences. The Northern Eurasia Future Initiative (NEFI) has been designed as an essential continuation of the Northern Eurasia Earth Science Partnership Initiative (NEESPI), which was launched in 2004. NEESPI sought to elucidate all aspects of ongoing environmental change, to inform societies and, thus, to better prepare societies for future developments. A key principle of NEFI is that these developments must now be secured through science-based strategies co-designed with regional decision makers to lead their societies to prosperity in the face of environmental and institutional challenges. NEESPI scientific research, data, and models have created a solid knowledge base to support the NEFI program. This paper presents the NEFI research vision consensus based on that knowledge. It provides the reader with samples of recent accomplishments in regional studies and formulates new NEFI science questions. To address these questions, nine research foci are identified and their selections are briefly justified. These foci include: warming of the Arctic; changing frequency, pattern, and intensity of extreme and inclement environmental conditions; retreat of the cryosphere; changes in terrestrial water cycles; changes in the biosphere; pressures on land-use; changes in infrastructure; societal actions in response to environmental change; and quantification of Northern Eurasia's role in the global Earth system. Powerful feedbacks between the Earth and human systems in Northern Eurasia (e.g., mega-fires, droughts, depletion of the cryosphere essential for water supply, retreat of sea ice) result from past and current human activities (e.g., large scale water withdrawals, land use and governance change) and potentially restrict or provide new opportunities for future human activities. Therefore, we propose that Integrated Assessment Models are needed as the final stage of global change assessment. The overarching goal of this NEFI modeling effort will enable evaluation of economic decisions in response to changing environmental conditions and justification of mitigation and adaptation efforts

Active layer thickness and permafrost area projections for the 21st century

Abstract Permafrost warming leads to greenhouse gas release to the atmosphere, resulting in a positive feedback to climate change. Earth >system models indicate that more than 80% of the near-surface permafrost is projected to disappear by the end of this century, but with a high degree of uncertainty. Here, we apply the Stefan solution to estimate permafrost degradation under future emission scenarios. We find that the most severe future scenario is likely to lead to only a 14% decrease in area extent of the near-surface permafrost at 3.5 m depth, and an area extent decrease of 1.3% at a depth of 6.0 m. Relative to active layer thickness increases from historical simulations, we find a less than 30% deepening for most permafrost regions by the end of this century. These results imply that the Stefan solution provides near-surface permafrost area extent degradation estimates that are substantially lower than directly projected by models

Is Agricultural Biotechnology Part of Sustainable Agriculture? Different Views in Switzerland and New Zealand

Most countries claim to be committed to sustainable agriculture. Yet, the meaning of the term 'sustainable agriculture' is largely shaped by influential stakeholders in the public debate and their respective agendas. The resulting national policies to promote sustainability may therefore not always be conducive to improving the economic, social, and environmental conditions of the farming sector. Two recent surveys on sustainable agriculture conducted with stakeholders in Switzerland and New Zealand highlight how such political interests and attitudes determine the role of technology in promoting sustainable agriculture