Mutual Events in the Cold Classical Transneptunian Binary System Sila and Nunam

Hubble Space Telescope observations between 2001 and 2010 resolved the binary components of the Cold Classical transneptunian object (79360) Sila-Nunam (provisionally designated 1997 CS29). From these observations we have determined the circular, retrograde mutual orbit of Nunam relative to Sila with a period of 12.50995 \pm 0.00036 days and a semimajor axis of 2777 \pm 19 km. A multi-year season of mutual events, in which the two near-equal brightness bodies alternate in passing in front of one another as seen from Earth, is in progress right now, and on 2011 Feb. 1 UT, one such event was observed from two different telescopes. The mutual event season offers a rich opportunity to learn much more about this barely-resolvable binary system, potentially including component sizes, colors, shapes, and albedo patterns. The low eccentricity of the orbit and a photometric lightcurve that appears to coincide with the orbital period are consistent with a system that is tidally locked and synchronized, like the Pluto-Charon system. The orbital period and semimajor axis imply a system mass of (10.84 \pm 0.22) \times 10^18 kg, which can be combined with a size estimate based on Spitzer and Herschel thermal infrared observations to infer an average bulk density of 0.72 +0.37 -0.23 g cm^-3, comparable to the very low bulk densities estimated for small transneptunian binaries of other dynamical classes.Comment: In press in Icaru

Health inequalities, fundamental causes and power:Towards the practice of good theory

Reducing health inequalities remains a challenge for policy makers across the world. Beginning from Lewin’s famous dictum that “there is nothing as practical as a good theory”, this paper begins from an appreciative discussion of ‘fundamental cause theory’, emphasizing the elegance of its theoretical encapsulation of the challenge, the relevance of its critical focus for action, and its potential to support the practical mobilisation of knowledge in generating change. Moreover, it is argued that recent developments in the theory, provide an opportunity for further theoretical development focused more clearly on the concept of power (Dickie et al. 2015). A critical focus on power as the essential element in maintaining, increasing or reducing social and economic inequalities – including health inequalities – can both enhance the coherence of the theory, and also enhance the capacity to challenge the roots of health inequalities at different levels and scales. This paper provides an initial contribution by proposing a framework to help to identify the most important sources, forms and positions of power, as well as the social spaces in which they operate. Subsequent work could usefully test, elaborate and adapt this framework, or indeed ultimately replace it with something better, to help focus actions to reduce inequalities

Detecting the Dependent Evolution of Biosequences

A probabilistic graphical model is developed in order to detect the dependent evolution between different sites in biological sequences. Given a multiple sequence alignment for each molecule of interest and a phylogenetic tree, the model can predict potential interactions within or between nucleic acids and proteins. Initial validation of the model is carried out using tRNA sequence data. The model is able to accurately identify the secondary structure of tRNA as well as several known tertiary interactions

Photometric and spectroscopic evolution of the interacting transient at 2016jbu(Gaia16cfr)

We present the results from a high-cadence, multiwavelength observation campaign of AT 2016jbu (aka Gaia16cfr), an interacting transient. This data set complements the current literature by adding higher cadence as well as extended coverage of the light-curve evolution and late-time spectroscopic evolution. Photometric coverage reveals that AT 2016jbu underwent significant photometric variability followed by two luminous events, the latter of which reached an absolute magnitude of MV ∼-18.5 mag. This is similar to the transient SN 2009ip whose nature is still debated. Spectra are dominated by narrow emission lines and show a blue continuum during the peak of the second event. AT 2016jbu shows signatures of a complex, non-homogeneous circumstellar material (CSM). We see slowly evolving asymmetric hydrogen line profiles, with velocities of 500 km s-1 seen in narrow emission features from a slow-moving CSM, and up to 10 000 km s-1 seen in broad absorption from some high-velocity material. Late-time spectra (∼+1 yr) show a lack of forbidden emission lines expected from a core-collapse supernova and are dominated by strong emission from H, He i, and Ca ii. Strong asymmetric emission features, a bumpy light curve, and continually evolving spectra suggest an inhibit nebular phase. We compare the evolution of H α among SN 2009ip-like transients and find possible evidence for orientation angle effects. The light-curve evolution of AT 2016jbu suggests similar, but not identical, circumstellar environments to other SN 2009ip-like transients

Progenitor, environment, and modelling of the interacting transient AT 2016jbu (Gaia16cfr)

We present the bolometric light curve, identification and analysis of the progenitor candidate, and preliminary modelling of AT 2016jbu (Gaia16cfr). We find a progenitor consistent with a ∼22-25 M⊙ yellow hypergiant surrounded by a dusty circumstellar shell, in agreement with what has been previously reported. We see evidence for significant photometric variability in the progenitor, as well as strong Hα emission consistent with pre-existing circumstellar material. The age of the environment, as well as the resolved stellar population surrounding AT 2016jbu, supports a progenitor age of >10 Myr, consistent with a progenitor mass of ∼22 M⊙. A joint analysis of the velocity evolution of AT 2016jbu and the photospheric radius inferred from the bolometric light curve shows the transient is consistent with two successive outbursts/explosions. The first outburst ejected material with velocity ∼650 km s-1, while the second, more energetic event ejected material at ∼4500 km s-1. Whether the latter is the core collapse of the progenitor remains uncertain. We place a limit on the ejected 56Ni mass of <0.016 M⊙. Using the Binary Population And Spectral Synthesis (BPASS) code, we explore a wide range of possible progenitor systems and find that the majority of these are in binaries, some of which are undergoing mass transfer or common-envelope evolution immediately prior to explosion. Finally, we use the SuperNova Explosion Code (SNEC) to demonstrate that the low-energy explosions within some of these binary systems, together with sufficient circumstellar material, can reproduce the overall morphology of the light curve of AT 2016jbu

Reporting guideline for the early stage clinical evaluation of decision support systems driven by artificial intelligence: DECIDE-AI

A growing number of artificial intelligence (AI)-based clinical decision support systems are showing promising performance in preclinical, in silico, evaluation, but few have yet demonstrated real benefit to patient care. Early stage clinical evaluation is important to assess an AI system’s actual clinical performance at small scale, ensure its safety, evaluate the human factors surrounding its use, and pave the way to further large scale trials. However, the reporting of these early studies remains inadequate. The present statement provides a multistakeholder, consensus-based reporting guideline for the Developmental and Exploratory Clinical Investigations of DEcision support systems driven by Artificial Intelligence (DECIDE-AI). We conducted a two round, modified Delphi process to collect and analyse expert opinion on the reporting of early clinical evaluation of AI systems. Experts were recruited from 20 predefined stakeholder categories. The final composition and wording of the guideline was determined at a virtual consensus meeting. The checklist and the Explanation & Elaboration (E&E) sections were refined based on feedback from a qualitative evaluation process. 123 experts participated in the first round of Delphi, 138 in the second, 16 in the consensus meeting, and 16 in the qualitative evaluation. The DECIDE-AI reporting guideline comprises 17 AI specific reporting items (made of 28 subitems) and 10 generic reporting items, with an E&E paragraph provided for each. Through consultation and consensus with a range of stakeholders, we have developed a guideline comprising key items that should be reported in early stage clinical studies of AI-based decision support systems in healthcare. By providing an actionable checklist of minimal reporting items, the DECIDE-AI guideline will facilitate the appraisal of these studies and replicability of their findings

Reducing the environmental impact of surgery on a global scale: systematic review and co-prioritization with healthcare workers in 132 countries

Background Healthcare cannot achieve net-zero carbon without addressing operating theatres. The aim of this study was to prioritize feasible interventions to reduce the environmental impact of operating theatres. Methods This study adopted a four-phase Delphi consensus co-prioritization methodology. In phase 1, a systematic review of published interventions and global consultation of perioperative healthcare professionals were used to longlist interventions. In phase 2, iterative thematic analysis consolidated comparable interventions into a shortlist. In phase 3, the shortlist was co-prioritized based on patient and clinician views on acceptability, feasibility, and safety. In phase 4, ranked lists of interventions were presented by their relevance to high-income countries and low–middle-income countries. Results In phase 1, 43 interventions were identified, which had low uptake in practice according to 3042 professionals globally. In phase 2, a shortlist of 15 intervention domains was generated. In phase 3, interventions were deemed acceptable for more than 90 per cent of patients except for reducing general anaesthesia (84 per cent) and re-sterilization of ‘single-use’ consumables (86 per cent). In phase 4, the top three shortlisted interventions for high-income countries were: introducing recycling; reducing use of anaesthetic gases; and appropriate clinical waste processing. In phase 4, the top three shortlisted interventions for low–middle-income countries were: introducing reusable surgical devices; reducing use of consumables; and reducing the use of general anaesthesia. Conclusion This is a step toward environmentally sustainable operating environments with actionable interventions applicable to both high– and low–middle–income countries