Multi-Scale Simulation Modeling for Prevention and Public Health Management of Diabetes in Pregnancy and Sequelae

Diabetes in pregnancy (DIP) is an increasing public health priority in the Australian Capital Territory, particularly due to its impact on risk for developing Type 2 diabetes. While earlier diagnostic screening results in greater capacity for early detection and treatment, such benefits must be balanced with the greater demands this imposes on public health services. To address such planning challenges, a multi-scale hybrid simulation model of DIP was built to explore the interaction of risk factors and capture the dynamics underlying the development of DIP. The impact of interventions on health outcomes at the physiological, health service and population level is measured. Of particular central significance in the model is a compartmental model representing the underlying physiological regulation of glycemic status based on beta-cell dynamics and insulin resistance. The model also simulated the dynamics of continuous BMI evolution, glycemic status change during pregnancy and diabetes classification driven by the individual-level physiological model. We further modeled public health service pathways providing diagnosis and care for DIP to explore the optimization of resource use during service delivery. The model was extensively calibrated against empirical data.Comment: 10 pages, SBP-BRiMS 201

Physical activity, smoking, and genetic predisposition to obesity in people from Pakistan:the PROMIS study

Background: Multiple genetic variants have been reliably associated with obesity-related traits in Europeans, but little is known about their associations and interactions with lifestyle factors in South Asians. Methods: In 16,157 Pakistani adults (8232 controls; 7925 diagnosed with myocardial infarction [MI]) enrolled in the PROMIS Study, we tested whether: a) BMI-associated loci, individually or in aggregate (as a genetic risk score - GRS), are associated with BMI; b) physical activity and smoking modify the association of these loci with BMI. Analyses were adjusted for age, age(2), sex, MI (yes/no), and population substructure. Results: Of 95 SNPs studied here, 73 showed directionally consistent effects on BMI as reported in Europeans. Each additional BMI-raising allele of the GRS was associated with 0.04 (SE = 0.01) kg/m(2) higher BMI (P = 4.5 x 10(-14)). We observed nominal evidence of interactions of CLIP1 rs11583200 (P-interaction = 0.014), CADM2 rs13078960 (P-interaction = 0.037) and GALNT10 rs7715256 (P-interaction = 0.048) with physical activity, and PTBP2 rs11165643 (P-interaction = 0.045), HIP1 rs1167827 (P-interaction = 0.015), C6orf106 rs205262 (P-interaction = 0.032) and GRID1 rs7899106 (P-interaction = 0.043) with smoking on BMI. Conclusions: Most BMI-associated loci have directionally consistent effects on BMI in Pakistanis and Europeans. There were suggestive interactions of established BMI-related SNPs with smoking or physical activity

Statistical power considerations in genotype-based recall randomized controlled trials

Randomized controlled trials (RCT) are often underpowered for validating gene-treatment interactions. Using published data from the Diabetes Prevention Program (DPP), we examined power in conventional and genotype-based recall (GBR) trials. We calculated sample size and statistical power for genemetformin interactions (vs. placebo) using incidence rates, gene-drug interaction effect estimates and allele frequencies reported in the DPP for the rs8065082 SLC47A1 variant, a metformin transported encoding locus. We then calculated statistical power for interactions between genetic risk scores (GRS), metformin treatment and intensive lifestyle intervention (ILI) given a range of sampling frames, clinical trial sample sizes, interaction effect estimates, and allele frequencies; outcomes were type 2 diabetes incidence (time-to-event) and change in small LDL particles (continuous outcome). Thereafter, we compared two recruitment frameworks: GBR (participants recruited from the extremes of a GRS distribution) and conventional sampling (participants recruited without explicit emphasis on genetic characteristics). We further examined the influence of outcome measurement error on statistical power. Under most simulated scenarios, GBR trials have substantially higher power to observe gene-drug and gene-lifestyle interactions than same-sized conventional RCTs. GBR trials are becoming popular for validation of gene-treatment interactions; our analyses illustrate the strengths and weaknesses of this design

Independent associations of physical activity and cardiorespiratory fitness with metabolic risk factors in children: the European youth heart study

Udgivelsesdato: septemberAIMS/HYPOTHESIS: High levels of cardiorespiratory fitness (CRF) and physical activity (PA) are associated with a favourable metabolic risk profile. However, there has been no thorough exploration of the independent contributions of cardiorespiratory fitness and subcomponents of activity (total PA, time spent sedentary, and time spent in light, moderate and vigorous intensity PA) to metabolic risk factors in children and the relative importance of these factors. METHODS: We performed a population-based, cross-sectional study in 9- to 10- and 15- to 16-year-old boys and girls from three regions of Europe (n = 1709). We examined the independent associations of subcomponents of PA and CRF with metabolic risk factors (waist circumference, BP, fasting glucose, insulin, triacylglycerol and HDL-cholesterol levels). Clustered metabolic risk was expressed as a continuously distributed score calculated as the average of the standardised values of the six subcomponents. RESULTS: CRF (standardised beta = -0.09, 95% CI -0.12, -0.06), total PA (standardised beta = -0.08, 95% CI -0.10, -0.05) and all other subcomponents of PA were significantly associated with clustered metabolic risk. After excluding waist circumference from the summary score and further adjustment for waist circumference as a confounding factor, the magnitude of the association between CRF and clustered metabolic risk was attenuated (standardised beta = -0.05, 95% CI -0.08, -0.02), whereas the association with total PA was unchanged (standardised beta = -0.08 95% CI -0.10, -0.05). CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATION: PA and CRF are separately and independently associated with individual and clustered metabolic risk factors in children. The association between CRF and clustered risk is partly mediated or confounded by adiposity, whereas the association between activity and clustered risk is independent of adiposity. Our results suggest that fitness and activity affect metabolic risk through different pathways

Postprandial Responses to a Standardised Meal in Hypertension: The Mediatory Role of Visceral Fat Mass

Postprandial insulinaemia, triglyceridaemia and measures of inflammation are thought to be more closely associated with cardiovascular risk than fasting measures. Although hypertension is associated with altered fasting metabolism, it is unknown as to what extent postprandial lipaemic and inflammatory metabolic responses differ between hypertensive and normotensive individuals. Linear models adjusting for age, sex, body mass index (BMI), visceral fat mass (VFM) and multiple testing (false discovery rate), were used to investigate whether hypertensive cases and normotensive controls had different fasting and postprandial (in response to two standardised test meal challenges) lipaemic, glycaemic, insulinaemic, and inflammatory (glycoprotein acetylation (GlycA)) responses in 989 participants from the ZOE PREDICT-1 nutritional intervention study. Compared to normotensive controls, hypertensive individuals had significantly higher fasting and postprandial insulin, triglycerides, and markers of inflammation after adjusting for age, sex, and BMI (effect size: Beta (Standard Error) ranging from 0.17 (0.08), p = 0.04 for peak insulin to 0.29 (0.08), p = 4.4 × 10−4 for peak GlycA). No difference was seen for postprandial glucose. When further adjusting for VFM effects were attenuated. Causal mediation analysis suggests that 36% of the variance in postprandial insulin response and 33.8% of variance in postprandial triglyceride response were mediated by VFM. Hypertensive individuals have different postprandial insulinaemic and lipaemic responses compared to normotensive controls and this is partially mediated by visceral fat mass. Consequently, reducing VFM should be a key focus of health interventions in hypertension

Mediterranean diet and type 2 diabetes risk in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC) study: the InterAct project.

OBJECTIVE: To study the association between adherence to the Mediterranean dietary pattern (MDP) and risk of developing type 2 diabetes, across European countries. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: We established a case-cohort study including 11,994 incident type 2 diabetic case subjects and a stratified subcohort of 15,798 participants selected from a total cohort of 340,234 participants with 3.99 million person-years of follow-up, from eight European cohorts participating in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC) study. The relative Mediterranean diet score (rMED) (score range 0-18) was used to assess adherence to MDP on the basis of reported consumption of nine dietary components characteristic of the Mediterranean diet. Cox proportional hazards regression, modified for the case-cohort design, was used to estimate the association between rMED and risk of type 2 diabetes, adjusting for confounders. RESULTS: The multiple adjusted hazard ratios of type 2 diabetes among individuals with medium (rMED 7-10 points) and high adherence to MDP (rMED 11-18 points) were 0.93 (95% CI 0.86-1.01) and 0.88 (0.79-0.97), respectively, compared with individuals with low adherence to MDP (0-6 points) (P for trend 0.013). The association between rMED and type 2 diabetes was attenuated in people <50 years of age, in obese participants, and when the alcohol, meat, and olive oil components were excluded from the score. CONCLUSIONS: In this large prospective study, adherence to the MDP, as defined by rMED, was associated with a small reduction in the risk of developing type 2 diabetes in this European population

Interactions of dietary whole-grain intake with fasting glucose- and insulin-related genetic loci in individuals of European descent: a meta-analysis of 14 cohort studies.

OBJECTIVE: Whole-grain foods are touted for multiple health benefits, including enhancing insulin sensitivity and reducing type 2 diabetes risk. Recent genome-wide association studies (GWAS) have identified several single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) associated with fasting glucose and insulin concentrations in individuals free of diabetes. We tested the hypothesis that whole-grain food intake and genetic variation interact to influence concentrations of fasting glucose and insulin. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: Via meta-analysis of data from 14 cohorts comprising ∼ 48,000 participants of European descent, we studied interactions of whole-grain intake with loci previously associated in GWAS with fasting glucose (16 loci) and/or insulin (2 loci) concentrations. For tests of interaction, we considered a P value <0.0028 (0.05 of 18 tests) as statistically significant. RESULTS: Greater whole-grain food intake was associated with lower fasting glucose and insulin concentrations independent of demographics, other dietary and lifestyle factors, and BMI (β [95% CI] per 1-serving-greater whole-grain intake: -0.009 mmol/l glucose [-0.013 to -0.005], P < 0.0001 and -0.011 pmol/l [ln] insulin [-0.015 to -0.007], P = 0.0003). No interactions met our multiple testing-adjusted statistical significance threshold. The strongest SNP interaction with whole-grain intake was rs780094 (GCKR) for fasting insulin (P = 0.006), where greater whole-grain intake was associated with a smaller reduction in fasting insulin concentrations in those with the insulin-raising allele. CONCLUSIONS: Our results support the favorable association of whole-grain intake with fasting glucose and insulin and suggest a potential interaction between variation in GCKR and whole-grain intake in influencing fasting insulin concentrations

Structural, thermal and dissolution properties of MgO- and CaO-containing borophosphate glasses: effect of Fe2O3 addition

This paper investigated manufacture of high-durability phosphate glass fibres for biomedical applications. Five different borophosphate glass formulations in the systems of 45P2O5–5B2O3–5Na2O–(29 − x)CaO–16MgO–(x)Fe2O3 and 45P2O5–5B2O3–5Na2O–24CaO–(21 − x)MgO–(x)Fe2O3 where x = 5, 8 and 11 mol% were produced via melt quenching. The compositions and amorphous nature of the glasses were confirmed by ICP-MS and XRD, respectively. FTIR results indicated depolymerisation of the phosphate chains with a decrease in Q2 units with increasing Fe2O3 content. DSC analyses showed an increase in Tg by ~5 °C with an increment of 3 mol% in Fe2O3 content. The thermal properties were also used to calculate processing window (i.e. Tc,ons—Tg) and another parameter, Kgl, to determine the suitability for fibre drawing directly from melt, which equals (Tc,ons—Tg)/(Tl—Tc,ons). The degradation study conducted in PBS solution at 37 °C showed a decrease of 25–47% in degradation rate with increasing Fe2O3 content. This confirmed that the chemical durability of the glasses had increased, which was suggested to be due to Fe2O3 addition. Furthermore, the density measured via Archimedes method revealed a linear increase with increasing Fe2O3 content