Simple individual-based models effectively represent Afrotropical forest bird movement in complex landscapes

Reliable estimates of dispersal rates between habitat patches (i.e. functional connectivity) are critical for predicting long-term effects of habitat fragmentation on population persistence. Connectivity measures are frequently derived from least cost path or graph-based approaches, despite the fact that these methods make biologically unrealistic assumptions. Individual-based models (IBMs) have been proposed as an alternative as they allow modelling movement behaviour in response to landscape resistance. However, IBMs typically require excessive data to be useful for management. Here, we test the extent to which an IBM requiring only an uncomplicated set of movement rules [the 'stochastic movement simulator' (SMS)] can predict animal movement behaviour in real-world landscapes. Movement behaviour of two forest birds, the Cabanis's greenbul Phyllastrephus cabanisi (a forest specialist) and the white-starred robin Pogonocichla stellata (a habitat generalist), across an Afrotropical matrix was simulated using SMS. Predictions from SMS were evaluated against a set of detailed movement paths collected by radiotracking homing individuals. SMS was capable of generating credible predictions of bird movement, although simulations were sensitive to the cost values and the movement rules specified. Model performance was generally highest when movement was simulated across low-contrasting cost surfaces and when virtual individuals were assigned low directional persistence and limited perceptual range. SMS better predicted movements of the habitat specialist than the habitat generalist, which highlights its potential to model functional connectivity when species movements are affected by the matrix. Synthesis and applications. Modelling the dispersal process with greater biological realism is likely to be critical for improving our predictive capability regarding functional connectivity and population persistence. For more realistic models to be widely applied, it is vital that their application is not overly complicated or data demanding. Here, we show that given relatively basic understanding of a species' dispersal ecology, the stochastic movement simulator represents a promising tool for estimating connectivity, which can help improve the design of functional ecological networks aimed at successful species conservation

Theory of disk accretion onto supermassive black holes

Accretion onto supermassive black holes produces both the dramatic phenomena associated with active galactic nuclei and the underwhelming displays seen in the Galactic Center and most other nearby galaxies. I review selected aspects of the current theoretical understanding of black hole accretion, emphasizing the role of magnetohydrodynamic turbulence and gravitational instabilities in driving the actual accretion and the importance of the efficacy of cooling in determining the structure and observational appearance of the accretion flow. Ongoing investigations into the dynamics of the plunging region, the origin of variability in the accretion process, and the evolution of warped, twisted, or eccentric disks are summarized.Comment: Mostly introductory review, to appear in "Supermassive black holes in the distant Universe", ed. A.J. Barger, Kluwer Academic Publishers, in pres

Does publication bias inflate the apparent efficacy of psychological treatment for major depressive disorder? A systematic review and meta-analysis of US national institutes of health-funded trials

Background The efficacy of antidepressant medication has been shown empirically to be overestimated due to publication bias, but this has only been inferred statistically with regard to psychological treatment for depression. We assessed directly the extent of study publication bias in trials examining the efficacy of psychological treatment for depression. Methods and Findings We identified US National Institutes of Health grants awarded to fund randomized clinical trials comparing psychological treatment to control conditions or other treatments in patients diagnosed with major depressive disorder for the period 1972–2008, and we determined whether those grants led to publications. For studies that were not published, data were requested from investigators and included in the meta-analyses. Thirteen (23.6%) of the 55 funded grants that began trials did not result in publications, and two others never started. Among comparisons to control conditions, adding unpublished studies (Hedges’ g = 0.20; CI95% -0.11~0.51; k = 6) to published studies (g = 0.52; 0.37~0.68; k = 20) reduced the psychotherapy effect size point estimate (g = 0.39; 0.08~0.70) by 25%. Moreover, these findings may overestimate the "true" effect of psychological treatment for depression as outcome reporting bias could not be examined quantitatively. Conclusion The efficacy of psychological interventions for depression has been overestimated in the published literature, just as it has been for pharmacotherapy. Both are efficacious but not to the extent that the published literature would suggest. Funding agencies and journals should archive both original protocols and raw data from treatment trials to allow the detection and correction of outcome reporting bias. Clinicians, guidelines developers, and decision makers should be aware that the published literature overestimates the effects of the predominant treatments for depression

Activation of inflammatory responses in human U937 macrophages by particulate matter collected from dairy farms: an in vitro expression analysis of pro-inflammatory markers

Abstract Background The purpose of the present study was to investigate activation of inflammatory markers in human macrophages derived from the U937 cell line after exposure to particulate matter (PM) collected on dairy farms in California and to identify the most potent components of the PM. Methods PM from different dairies were collected and tested to induce an inflammatory response determined by the expression of various pro-inflammatory genes, such as Interleukin (IL)-8, in U937 derived macrophages. Gel shift and luciferase reporter assays were performed to examine the activation of nuclear factor kappa-light-chain-enhancer of activated B cells (NF-κB) and Toll-like-receptor 4 (TLR4). Results Macrophage exposure to PM derived from dairy farms significantly activated expression of pro-inflammatory genes, including IL-8, cyclooxygenase 2 and Tumor necrosis factor-alpha, which are hallmarks of inflammation. Acute phase proteins, such as serum amyloid A and IL-6, were also significantly upregulated in macrophages treated with PM from dairies. Coarse PM fractions demonstrated more pro-inflammatory activity on an equal-dose basis than fine PM. Urban PM collected from the same region as the dairy farms was associated with a lower concentration of endotoxin and produced significantly less IL-8 expression compared to PM collected on the dairy farms. Conclusion The present study provides evidence that the endotoxin components of the particles collected on dairies play a major role in mediating an inflammatory response through activation of TLR4 and NF-κB signaling

A review of patients who suddenly deteriorate in the presence of paramedics

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>The report of the Ministerial Review of Trauma and Emergency Services in Victoria, Australia, recommended that paramedics be permitted to divert to the closest hospital in incidences of life threatening situations prior to and during transport. An audit of patients that suddenly deteriorated in paramedic care was recommended by the Ministerial Review. The objective of the study was to identify the number and outcome of patients who suddenly deteriorated in the presence of paramedics.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>A retrospective cohort study of trauma patients who suddenly deteriorated in the presence of paramedics during 2002. As there was no standard definition, sudden deterioration was defined using a predetermined set of physiological criteria. Patient care record data of patients who suddenly deteriorated were compared with the State Trauma Registry to determine those who sustained hospital defined major trauma. Patient care records where hospital bypass was undertaken were identified and analysed. Ethics committee approval was obtained.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>There were 2,893 patients that suddenly deteriorated according to predefined criteria. 2,687 (5.1% of the total trauma patients for 2002) were suitable for further analysis. The majority of patients had a sudden decrease in BP (n = 2,463) with 4.3% having hospital defined major trauma. For patients with a sudden decrease in conscious state or a total GCS score of less than 13 (n = 77), 37.7% had hospital defined major trauma; and a sudden increase/decrease in pulse rate and sudden decrease in BP (n = 65), 26.2% had hospital defined major trauma. Only 28 documented incidents of hospital bypass were identified.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>This study suggests that the incidents of patients suddenly deteriorating in the presence of paramedics are low and the incidence of hospital bypass is not well documented.</p

Validating Five Questions of Antiretroviral Nonadherence in a Public-Sector Treatment Program in Rural South Africa

Simple questions are the most commonly used measures of antiretroviral treatment (ART) adherence in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), but rarely validated. We administered five adherence questions in a public-sector primary care clinic in rural South Africa: 7-day recall of missed doses, 7-day recall of late doses, a six-level Likert item, a 30-day visual analogue scale of the proportion of doses missed, and recall of the time when an ART dose was last missed. We estimated question sensitivity and specificity in detecting immunologic (or virologic) failure assessed within 45 days of the adherence question date. Of 165 individuals, 7% had immunologic failure; 137 individuals had viral loads with 9% failure detected. The Likert item performed best for immunologic failure with sensitivity/specificity of 100%/5% (when defining nonadherence as self-reported adherence less than -excellent-), 42%/55% (less than -very good-), and 25%/95% (less than -good-). The remaining questions had sensitivities <=17%, even when the least strict cutoffs defined nonadherence. When we stratified the analysis by gender, age, or education, question performance was not substantially better in any of the subsamples in comparison to the total sample. Five commonly used adherence questions performed poorly in identifying patients with treatment failure in a public-sector ART program in SSA. Valid adherence measurement instruments are urgently required to identify patients needing treatment support and those most at risk of treatment failure. Available estimates of ART adherence in SSA are mostly based on studies using adherence questions. It is thus unlikely that our understanding of ART adherence in the region is correct.Peer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/90502/1/apc-2E2010-2E0257.pd

Genetic characterization of Yug Bogdanovac virus

We present pyrosequencing data and phylogenetic analysis for the full genome of Yug Bogdanovac virus (YBV), a member of the Vesicular stomatitis virus serogroup of the Rhabdoviridae isolated from a pool of Phlebotomus perfiliewi sandflies collected in Serbia in 1976. YBV shows very low nucleotide identities to other members of the Vesicular stomatitis virus serogroup and does not contain a reading frame for C&prime;/C proteins