Long-term outcomes and predictive ability of non-invasive scoring systems in patients with non-alcoholic fatty liver disease

[Background & Aims] Non-invasive scoring systems (NSS) are used to identify patients with non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) who are at risk of advanced fibrosis, but their reliability in predicting long-term outcomes for hepatic/extrahepatic complications or death and their concordance in cross-sectional and longitudinal risk stratification remain uncertain.[Methods] The most common NSS (NFS, FIB-4, BARD, APRI) and the Hepamet fibrosis score (HFS) were assessed in 1,173 European patients with NAFLD from tertiary centres. Performance for fibrosis risk stratification and for the prediction of long-term hepatic/extrahepatic events, hepatocarcinoma (HCC) and overall mortality were evaluated in terms of AUC and Harrell’s c-index. For longitudinal data, NSS-based Cox proportional hazard models were trained on the whole cohort with repeated 5-fold cross-validation, sampling for testing from the 607 patients with all NSS available.[Results] Cross-sectional analysis revealed HFS as the best performer for the identification of significant (F0-1 vs. F2-4, AUC = 0.758) and advanced (F0-2 vs. F3-4, AUC = 0.805) fibrosis, while NFS and FIB-4 showed the best performance for detecting histological cirrhosis (range AUCs 0.85-0.88). Considering longitudinal data (follow-up between 62 and 110 months), NFS and FIB-4 were the best at predicting liver-related events (c-indices>0.7), NFS for HCC (c-index = 0.9 on average), and FIB-4 and HFS for overall mortality (c-indices >0.8). All NSS showed limited performance (c-indices <0.7) for extrahepatic events.[Conclusions] Overall, NFS, HFS and FIB-4 outperformed APRI and BARD for both cross-sectional identification of fibrosis and prediction of long-term outcomes, confirming that they are useful tools for the clinical management of patients with NAFLD at increased risk of fibrosis and liver-related complications or death.[Lay summary] Non-invasive scoring systems are increasingly being used in patients with non-alcoholic fatty liver disease to identify those at risk of advanced fibrosis and hence clinical complications. Herein, we compared various non-invasive scoring systems and identified those that were best at identifying risk, as well as those that were best for the prediction of long-term outcomes, such as liver-related events, liver cancer and death.This study has been supported by the EPoS (Elucidating Pathways of Steatohepatitis) consortium funded by the Horizon 2020 Framework Program of the European Union under Grant Agreement 634413 and the Newcastle NIHR Biomedical Research Centre. The authors are contributing members of The European NAFLD Registry. The study was also supported by the Italian Ministry of Health, grant RF-2016-02364358 (Ricerca Finalizzata, Ministero della Salute), and the Italian Ministry for Education, University and Research (Ministero dell’Istruzione, dell’Università e della Ricerca - MIUR) under the programme “Dipartimenti di Eccellenza 2018 – 2022” Project code D15D18000410001.Peer reviewe

Interaction between Lifestyle Changes and PNPLA3 Genotype in NAFLD Patients during the COVID-19 Lockdown

The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) lockdown dramatically changed people’s lifestyles. Diet, physical activity, and the PNPLA3 gene are known risk factors for non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD). Aim: To evaluate changes in metabolic and hepatic disease in NAFLD patients after the COVID-19 lockdown. Three hundred and fifty seven NAFLD patients were enrolled, all previously instructed to follow a Mediterranean diet (MD). Anthropometric, metabolic, and laboratory data were collected before the COVID-19 lockdown in Italy and 6 months apart, along with ultrasound (US) steatosis grading and information about adherence to MD and physical activity (PA). In 188 patients, PNPLA3 genotyping was performed. After the lockdown, 48% of patients gained weight, while 16% had a worsened steatosis grade. Weight gain was associated with poor adherence to MD (p = 0.005), reduced PA (p = 0.03), and increased prevalence of PNPLA3 GG (p = 0.04). At multivariate analysis (corrected for age, sex, MD, PA, and PNPLA3 GG), only PNPLA3 remained independently associated with weight gain (p = 0.04), which was also associated with worsened glycemia (p = 0.002) and transaminases (p = 0.02). During lockdown, due to a dramatic change in lifestyles, half of our cohort of NAFLD patients gained weight, with a worsening of metabolic and hepatologic features. Interestingly, the PNPLA3 GG genotype nullified the effect of lifestyle and emerged as an independent risk factor for weight gain, opening new perspectives in NAFLD patient care

Long-term outcomes and predictive ability of non-invasive scoring systems in patients with non-alcoholic fatty liver disease

Background &amp; Aims: Non-invasive scoring systems (NSS) are used to identify patients with non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) who are at risk of advanced fibrosis, but their reliability in predicting long-term outcomes for hepatic/extrahepatic complications or death and their concordance in cross-sectional and longitudinal risk stratification remain uncertain. Methods: The most common NSS (NFS, FIB-4, BARD, APRI) and the Hepamet fibrosis score (HFS) were assessed in 1,173 European patients with NAFLD from tertiary centres. Performance for fibrosis risk stratification and for the prediction of long-term hepatic/extrahepatic events, hepatocarcinoma (HCC) and overall mortality were evaluated in terms of AUC and Harrell's c-index. For longitudinal data, NSS-based Cox proportional hazard models were trained on the whole cohort with repeated 5-fold cross-validation, sampling for testing from the 607 patients with all NSS available. Results: Cross-sectional analysis revealed HFS as the best performer for the identification of significant (F0-1 vs. F2-4, AUC = 0.758) and advanced (F0-2 vs. F3-4, AUC = 0.805) fibrosis, while NFS and FIB-4 showed the best performance for detecting histological cirrhosis (range AUCs 0.85-0.88). Considering longitudinal data (follow-up between 62 and 110 months), NFS and FIB-4 were the best at predicting liver-related events (c-indices&gt;0.7), NFS for HCC (c-index = 0.9 on average), and FIB-4 and HFS for overall mortality (c-indices &gt;0.8). All NSS showed limited performance (c-indices &lt;0.7) for extrahepatic events. Conclusions: Overall, NFS, HFS and FIB-4 outperformed APRI and BARD for both cross-sectional identification of fibrosis and prediction of long-term outcomes, confirming that they are useful tools for the clinical management of patients with NAFLD at increased risk of fibrosis and liver-related complications or death. Lay summary: Non-invasive scoring systems are increasingly being used in patients with non-alcoholic fatty liver disease to identify those at risk of advanced fibrosis and hence clinical complications. Herein, we compared various non-invasive scoring systems and identified those that were best at identifying risk, as well as those that were best for the prediction of long-term outcomes, such as liver-related events, liver cancer and death

Caucasian lean subjects with non-alcoholic fatty liver disease share long-term prognosis of non-lean: time for reappraisal of BMI-driven approach?

[Objective] The full phenotypic expression of non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) in lean subjects is incompletely characterised. We aimed to investigate prevalence, characteristics and long-term prognosis of Caucasian lean subjects with NAFLD.[Design] The study cohort comprises 1339 biopsy-proven NAFLD subjects from four countries (Italy, UK, Spain and Australia), stratified into lean and non-lean (body mass index (BMI) 10 483 person-years), 4.7% of lean vs 7.7% of non-lean patients reported liver-related events (p=0.37). No difference in survival was observed compared with non-lean NAFLD (p=0.069).[Conclusions] Caucasian lean subjects with NAFLD may progress to advanced liver disease, develop metabolic comorbidities and experience cardiovascular disease (CVD) as well as liver-related mortality, independent of longitudinal progression to obesity and PNPLA3 genotype. These patients represent one end of a wide spectrum of phenotypic expression of NAFLD where the disease manifests at lower overall BMI thresholds. [Lay summary] NAFLD may affect and progress in both obese and lean individuals. Lean subjects are predominantly males, have a younger age at diagnosis and are more prevalent in some geographic areas. During the follow-up, lean subjects can develop hepatic and extrahepatic disease, including metabolic comorbidities, in the absence of weight gain. These patients represent one end of a wide spectrum of phenotypic expression of NAFLD.This study has been supported by the EPoS (Elucidating Pathways of Steatohepatitis) consortium funded by the Horizon 2020 Framework Program of the European Union under Grant Agreement 634413 and the Newcastle NIHR Biomedical Research Centre. The authors are contributing members of The European NAFLD Registry. The study was also supported by the Italian Ministry of Health, grant RF-2016-02364358 (Ricerca Finalizzata, Ministero della Salute). ME and JG are supported by the Robert W. Storr Bequest to the Sydney Medical Foundation, University of Sydney; a National Health and Medical Research Council of Australia (NHMRC) Program Grant (APP1053206, APP1149976) and Project grants (APP1107178 and APP1108422).Peer reviewe

Appropriateness of prescription of oral anticoagulant therapy in acutely hospitalized older people with atrial fibrillation. Secondary analysis of the SIM-AF cluster randomized clinical trial

Aims: To assess the appropriateness of oral anticoagulant (OAC) prescription and its associated factors in acutely hospitalized elderly patients. Methods: Data were obtained from the prospective phase of SIM-AF (SIMulation-based technologies to improve the appropriate use of oral anticoagulants in hospitalized elderly patients with Atrial Fibrillation) randomized controlled trial, aimed to test whether an educational intervention improved OAC prescription, compared to current clinical practice, in internal medicine wards. In this secondary analysis, appropriateness of OAC prescription was assessed at hospital admission and discharge. Results: For 246 patients, no significant differences were found between arms (odds ratio 1.38, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.84\u20132.28) in terms of appropriateness of OAC prescription. Globally, 92 patients (37.4%, 95% CI = 31.6\u201343.6%) were inappropriately prescribed or not prescribed at hospital discharge. Among 51 patients inappropriately prescribed, 82% showed errors on dosage, being mainly under-dosed (n = 29, 56.9%), and among 41 inappropriately not prescribed, 98% were taking an antiplatelet drug. Factors independently associated with a lower probability of appropriateness at discharge were those related to a higher risk of bleeding (older age, higher levels of aspartate aminotransferase, history of falls, alcohol consumption) and antiplatelet prescription at admission. The prescription of OACs at admission was the strongest predictor of appropriateness at discharge (odds ratio = 7.43, 95% CI = 4.04\u201313.73). Conclusions: A high proportion of hospitalized older patients with AF remains inappropriately prescribed or nonprescribed with OACs. The management of these patients at hospital admission is the strongest predictor of prescription appropriateness at discharge