Valuing landslide risk reduction programs in the Italian Alps: the effect of visual information on preference stability

Climate change has increased the frequency and intensity of weather-related natural hazards everywhere. In particular, mountain areas with dense human settlements, such as the Italian Alps, stand to suffer the costliest consequences from landslides. Options for risk management policies are currently being debated among residents and decision makers. Preference analysis of residents for risk reduction programs is hence needed to inform the policy debate. We use discrete choice experiments to investigate the social demand for landslide protection projects. Given the importance of information in public good valuation via surveys, we explore the effect of specific visual information on the stability of preference estimates. In our survey, we elicit preferences before and after providing respondents with scientific-based information, based on visual simulations of possible events. This enables us to measure information effects. Choice data are used to estimate a Mixed Logit (MXL) model in WTP space to obtain robust estimates of marginal willingness-to-pay (mWTP) estimates and control for the effect of information. Mapping posterior individual specific mWTP estimates provide additional policy implications. Overall, we found the mWTP estimates to be dependent on information

Computing Inferences for Large-Scale Continuous-Time Markov Chains by Combining Lumping with Imprecision

If the state space of a homogeneous continuous-time Markov chain is too large, making inferences - here limited to determining marginal or limit expectations - becomes computationally infeasible. Fortunately, the state space of such a chain is usually too detailed for the inferences we are interested in, in the sense that a less detailed - smaller - state space suffices to unambiguously formalise the inference. However, in general this so-called lumped state space inhibits computing exact inferences because the corresponding dynamics are unknown and/or intractable to obtain. We address this issue by considering an imprecise continuous-time Markov chain. In this way, we are able to provide guaranteed lower and upper bounds for the inferences of interest, without suffering from the curse of dimensionality.Comment: 9th International Conference on Soft Methods in Probability and Statistics (SMPS 2018

Ecosystem services' values and improved revenue collection for regional protected areas.

The management of conservation areas is a costly enterprise, especially vulnerable to budget cutting when austerity measures are being considered. Optimal spatial taxation dictates that tax-payers contribute proportionally to the benefits they receive. This paper provides a framework to derive spatially varied benefit estimates for ecosystem services produced in Natura 2000 protected areas of Lombardy (Italy). These may be used as a framework for spatially optimised taxation to improve the efficiency of public funding. In the process we used non-market valuation techniques, as well as benefit functions’ transfer

Paleomagnestism of the Santa Victoria Group in the Mojotoro Range, Salta: Contributions to the paleogeographic position of Pampia in Early Paleozoic

Sedimentologic magnetofabric paleomagnetic studies were carried out on the early Ordovician La Pedrera Formation (Santa Victoria Group) in the Mojotoro Range Salta province. These studies aim at contributing to a better knowledge on the paleogeographic position of the Pampia block in the Early Paleozoic in relation to the Gondwana supercontinent. Oriented samples were collected from 12 sites distributed in three localities. These outcrops consist of middle to proximal shelf deposits of mainly quarzitic composition. Studies on the anisotropy of magnetic susceptibility (AMS) suggest a depositional fabric in one of these localities meanwhile some tectonic influence cannot be ruled out in the magnetic fabric found in the other two. The paleomagnetic analysis permitted to determine a characteristic magnetic remanence carried by hematite at all twelve sites. From the virtual geomagnetic poles computed at each site a paleomagnetic pole was obtained for the Santa Victoria Group at these localities which is located at 340,4°E 38,3°N A95=8,8°. This pole position suggests that any of the three localities underwent significant tectonic rotations due to the Andean orogeny or pre-vious tectonic events. However, it presents a somewhat lower than expected paleolatitude in comparison to coeval reference poles for Gondwana. Studies of oriented isothermal remanent magnetization suggest that this difference should not be due to inclination errors. On the other hand, the paleomagnetic pole for the Santa Victoria Group disagrees with those previously obtained for the middle to upper Cambrian Mesón Group and the lowermost Ordovician Santa Rosita Formation, to the north of our study localities but still in the same region. These discrepancies can be explained either by the presence of Andean local tectonic rotations around vertical axes in the localities to the north of our study zone or by considering that the hypothetical displacement of Pampia along the Río de la Plata craton margin was already over, or nearly so, by the Early Ordovician

Computing inferences for large-scale continuous-time Markov chains by combining lumping with imprecision

If the state space of a homogeneous continuous-time Markov chain is too large, making inferences—here limited to determining marginal or limit expectations—becomes computationally infeasible. Fortunately, the state space of such a chain is usually too detailed for the inferences we are interested in, in the sense that a less detailed—smaller—state space suffices to unambiguously formalise the inference. However, in general this so-called lumped state space inhibits computing exact inferences because the corresponding dynamics are unknown and/or intractable to obtain. We address this issue by considering an imprecise continuous-time Markov chain. In this way, we are able to provide guaranteed lower and upper bounds for the inferences of interest, without suffering from the curse of dimensionality

Identification of maladaptive behavioural patterns in response to extreme weather events

Human behaviour has gained recognition as a critical factor in addressing climate change and its impacts. With extreme weather events posing risks to vulnerable communities, understanding cognitive processes driving behaviours becomes essential for effective risk communication. This study focuses on the 2018 "Vaia" storm, which brought unprecedented precipitation and wind velocity to the mountainous regions of North-eastern Italy. Drawing upon the Protection Motivation Theory (PMT) framework, we employ probabilistic models to identify distinct groups with similar behavioural profiles. By administering a web-based survey to 1500 residents affected by the event, we find that threat appraisal is more influential in shaping protective behaviours than coping appraisal. Our findings indicate that by enhancing coping appraisals and discouraging non-protective measures, we can actively mitigate maladaptive responses and promote the adoption of effective adaptation strategies

Methodologies synthesis

This deliverable deals with the modelling and analysis of interdependencies between critical infrastructures, focussing attention on two interdependent infrastructures studied in the context of CRUTIAL: the electric power infrastructure and the information infrastructures supporting management, control and maintenance functionality. The main objectives are: 1) investigate the main challenges to be addressed for the analysis and modelling of interdependencies, 2) review the modelling methodologies and tools that can be used to address these challenges and support the evaluation of the impact of interdependencies on the dependability and resilience of the service delivered to the users, and 3) present the preliminary directions investigated so far by the CRUTIAL consortium for describing and modelling interdependencies

Foam-Mat Freeze-Drying of Blueberry Juice by Using Trehalose-β-Lactoglobulin and Trehalose-Bovine Serum Albumin as Matrices

This study aimed to evaluate the effect of pure protein compounds and trehalose incorporated into blueberry juice for foam-mat freeze-drying on the foam and powder properties. Foam-mat freeze-drying (FMFD) of blueberry juice was tested at − 55 °C for 24 h. Matrices used were trehalose + β-lactoglobulin (T3BL1) and trehalose + bovine serum albumin (T3A1) and compared with maltodextrin + whey protein isolate (M3W1). Physicochemical properties of foam and powder, e.g., foam stability, foam density, moisture, rehydration time, color, particle morphology, total phenolic, and anthocyanins (total and individuals), were investigated. T3BL1 and T3A1 had more stable foam than M3W1. However, overrun of T3BL1 and T3A1 foamed were inferior to the M3W1 sample. The M3W1 sample recovered 79% powder (dry weight) and was superior to others. Rehydration time of powdered T3BL1 and T3A1, with bulk densities of 0.55–0.60 g cm−3, was the fastest (34–36 s). The blueberry powders of M3W1 showed more irregular particle size and shape, while the samples with trehalose and pure proteins generated particles of more uniform size with obvious pores. T3BL1 and T3A1 showed less redness (a*) values than the M3W1 product. All samples were considered pure red due to hue values < 90. M3W1 was superior in total phenolic content (TPC) and total monomeric anthocyanins (TMA) compared with both samples made with trehalose + β-lactoglobulin and trehalose+bovine serum albumin. Delphinidin-3-glucoside (Del3Gl) concentration was found to be higher in M3W1. Also, M3W1 had higher cyanidin-3-glucoside (Cyn3Gl) and malvidin-3-glucoside (Mal3Gl) concentration. M3W1 also prevented the degradation of these bioactive compounds better than the other FMFD samples. The use of pure proteins and trehalose as matrices in the FMFD process had little advantage compared with maltodextrin/whey protein isolate. Thus, maltodextrin/whey protein isolate seems an ideal matrix for the manufacture of FMFD blueberry