Effets des changements climatiques sur la performance à long terme des chaussées souples au Québec - Volet 2 : effet de l'augmentation de la température en hiver et d'une hausse du nombre d'épisode de redoux hivernaux

Les changements climatiques attendus pour les prochaines décennies auront des impacts non négligeables sur la performance à long terme des réseaux routiers québécois, notamment durant la période hivernale. Cette étude a pour objectif de quantifier l’effet des changements climatiques attendus en hiver, c’est-à-dire les effets d’une diminution de l’indice de gel et d’une hausse du nombre d’épisodes de redoux hivernaux. Tout d’abord, un adoucissement des températures hivernales aura un impact positif en réduisant l’endommagement des chaussées causé par les phénomènes de soulèvement au gel. Une augmentation de durée de vie relative de 6 à 17 % est attendue pour l’horizon climatique [2011-2040]. De plus, une méthode d’ajustement de l’indice de gel utilisé en conception a également été établie pour adapter les futures chaussées à des hivers moins rigoureux. Par la suite, l’effet d’une augmentation du nombre de redoux hivernaux aura des effets négatifs sur les chaussées en occasionnant une augmentation de l’endommagement par déformation permanente dans la couche de fondation granulaire et par fatigue dans la couche de béton bitumineux. Des essais triaxiaux ont été réalisés pour évaluer la performance en déformation permanente de différents types de MG-20 soumis à une répétition de redoux hivernaux. Ces essais ont ensuite été validés par des essais effectués à l’aide d’un simulateur de charge roulante. Il a été possible de conclure que, pour l’horizon climatique [2011-2040], les chaussées flexibles au Québec subiront une perte de durée de vie relative variant de 7 à 13 % en déformations permanentes. Concernant l’endommagement par fatigue, la perte de durée de vie relative attendue varie de 5 à 8 %. Finalement, certaines méthodes de mitigation sont proposées afin d’adapter les réseaux routiers aux changements climatiques.In the coming decades climate change will have significant impacts on the long-term performance of the road network of Quebec, particularly during winter period. This study quantifies the effect of climate change expected in winter, precisely the effect of a decrease in the freezing index and an increase in the number of episodes of winter thaws. Firstly milder winter temperatures will have a positive impact by reducing pavement damage caused by frost heaves. Increased duration of life of about 6-17% is expected for climate horizon [2011-2040]. In addition, an adjustment of the freezing index has also been established to adapt construction of future pavement structure to less severe winters. Thereafter, the effect of an increase in the number of winter thaws events will have a negative impact on pavements increasing damages by permanent deformation in the granular base and by fatigue in the asphalt concrete layer. Triaxial tests were conducted to evaluate the performance on permanent deformation of different types of MG-20 subjected to repeated winter thaws. These tests were then validated using a small-scale heavy vehicle simulator. It was possible to conclude that, for the climate horizon [2011-2040], flexible pavements in Quebec will suffer a loss of lifetime ranging from 7 to 13% in permanent deformation. Regarding the fatigue damage, we expect a reduction of lifetime from 5 to 8%. Finally, some mitigation methods are proposed to adapt road networks to climate change

Chiropractic management of patients post-disc arthroplasty: eight case reports

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>When conservative therapies for low back pain (LBP) are not effective, elective surgery may be proposed to these patients. Over the last 20 years, a new technology, disc replacement, has become increasingly popular because it is believed to maintain or restore the integrity of spinal movement and minimize the side-effects compared to fusion. Although disc replacement may relieve a patient from pain and related disability, soreness and stiffness of the lumbopelvic region seem to be common aftermaths of the surgery. This prospective case series was undertaken to identify and describe potential adverse events of lumbar spinal manipulation, a common therapy for low back pain, in a group of patients with symptoms after disc prostheses.</p> <p>Cases presentation</p> <p>Eight patients who underwent lumbar spine total disc replacement were referred by an orthopaedic surgeon for chiropractic treatments. These patients had 1 or 2 total lumbar disc replacements and were considered stable according to the surgical protocol but presented persistent, post-surgical, non-specific LBP or pelvic pain. They were treated with lumbar spine side posture manipulations only and received 8 to 10 chiropractic treatments based on the clinical evolution and the chiropractor's judgment. Outcome measures included benign, self-limiting, and serious adverse events after low back spinal manipulative therapy. The Oswestry Disability Index, a pain scale and the fear avoidance belief questionnaire were administered to respectively assess disability, pain and fear avoidance belief about work and physical activity. This prospective case series comprised 8 patients who all had at least 1 total disc replacement at the L4/L5 or L5/S1 level and described persistent post-surgical LBP interfering with their daily activities. Commonly-reported side-effects of a benign nature included increased pain and/or stiffness of short duration in nearly half of the chiropractic treatment period. No major or irreversible complication was noted.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>During the short treatment period, no major complication was encountered by the patients. Moreover, the benign side-effects reported after lumbar spine manipulation were similar in nature and duration to those frequently experienced by the general population.</p

Adiabatic reduction near a bifurcation in stochastically modulated systems

We re-examine the procedure of adiabatic elimination of fast relaxing variables near a bifurcation point when some of the parameters of the system are stochastically modulated. Approximate stationary solutions of the Fokker-Planck equation are obtained near threshold for the pitchfork and transcritical bifurcations. Stochastic resonance between fast variables and random modulation may shift the effective bifurcation point by an amount proportional to the intensity of the fluctuations. We also find that fluctuations of the fast variables above threshold are not always Gaussian and centered around the (deterministic) center manifold as was previously believed. Numerical solutions obtained for a few illustrative examples support these conclusions.Comment: RevTeX, 19 pages and 16 figure

Comparing the cost-effectiveness of two- and three-dose schedules of human papillomavirus vaccination: a transmission-dynamic modelling study.

BACKGROUND: Recent evidence suggests that two doses of HPV vaccines may be as protective as three doses in the short-term. We estimated the incremental cost-effectiveness of two- and three-dose schedules of girls-only and girls & boys HPV vaccination programmes in Canada. METHODS: We used HPV-ADVISE, an individual-based transmission-dynamic model of multi-type HPV infection and diseases (anogenital warts, and cancers of the cervix, vulva, vagina, anus, penis and oropharynx). We conducted the analysis from the health payer perspective, with a 70-year time horizon and 3% discount rate, and performed extensive sensitivity analyses, including duration of vaccine protection and vaccine cost. FINDINGS: Assuming 80% coverage and a vaccine cost per dose of $85, two-dose girls-only vaccination (vs. no vaccination) produced cost/quality-adjusted life-year (QALY)-gained varying between$7900-24,300. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of giving the third dose to girls (vs. two doses) was below $40,000/QALY-gained when: (i) three doses provide longer protection than two doses and (ii) two-dose protection was shorter than 30 years. Vaccinating boys (with two or three doses) was not cost-effective (vs. girls-only vaccination) under most scenarios investigated. INTERPRETATION: Two-dose HPV vaccination is likely to be cost-effective if its duration of protection is at least 10 years. A third dose of HPV vaccine is unlikely to be cost-effective if two-dose duration of protection is longer than 30 years. Finally, two-dose girls & boys HPV vaccination is unlikely to be cost-effective unless the cost per dose for boys is substantially lower than the cost for girls

Insights on post-breeding movements from a northeastern population of Canada Warblers (Cardellina canadensis)

ABSTRACT : The study of migratory songbird transition periods, such as the post-breeding period, is complex because birds undertake different types of movements that vary in space and time. Nonetheless, it is important to understand the extent and duration of the territory and specific sites use to identify human activities likely to affect the species’ survival. Individuals from different regional populations may exhibit specific movements during the various phases of their annual cycle, and therefore conservation actions must be adapted. We studied a population of Canada Warblers (Cardellina canadensis) from the Saguenay region of Quebec, Canada, in the northeastern part of the species’ breeding range. We used a coordinated radio-telemetry network (Motus) to determine the residence time within the breeding territory, dates and times of departure, and early fall migration routes of 18 adult birds. We expected individuals to leave by mid-August and to migrate through the eastern flyway, along the Atlantic Coast. Six tracked individuals remained on their breeding territory until early September, corresponding to a residence time of approximately 90 days. These individuals left just after sunset on their day of departure. Twelve individuals departed earlier, and in the daytime, before the end of August; their earlier departure was likely for a purpose other than migration. Nine individuals were detected outside their breeding territory along the Atlantic migratory flyway: four migrated through the Great Lakes region, one in the Great Appalachian Valley, three along the Atlantic Coast or coastal plain, and one with an undetermined route. Our results suggest that adult Canada Warblers remain in the Saguenay region longer than expected, and that, although some individuals remain close to their breeding territory during the post-breeding period, others may use surrounding territories prior to initiating their fall migration. Our results will allow regional conservation managers to recommend that regional industry postpone the timing of certain activities that could negatively affect the species’ survival. Our study highlights the importance of fine-scale studies focused on specific periods of migratory songbird annual cycles to fill important knowledge gaps for understanding of the ecology of their species. RÉSUMÉ : L'étude des périodes de transition de passereaux migrateurs, comme la période post-nuptiale, est complexe car les oiseaux entreprennent différents types de déplacements qui varient dans l'espace et le temps. Néanmoins, il est important de comprendre l'étendue et la durée de l'utilisation du territoire et de sites spécifiques pour qu'on puisse déterminer quelles activités humaines sont susceptibles d'affecter la survie de l'espèce. Les individus de différentes populations régionales peuvent présenter des déplacements spécifiques au cours des diverses étapes de leur cycle annuel, et les activités de conservation doivent donc être adaptées. Nous avons étudié une population de Parulines du Canada (Cardellina canadensis) de la région du Saguenay au Québec, Canada, située dans la partie nord-est de l'aire de nidification de l'espèce. Nous avons utilisé un réseau coordonné de radiotélémétrie (Motus) pour déterminer le temps de résidence dans le territoire de nidification, les dates et les heures de départ, et les routes de migration au début de l'automne de 18 oiseaux adultes. Nous nous attendions à ce que les individus quittent à la mi-août et migrent par la voie de migration de l'est, le long de la côte atlantique. Six individus sont restés sur leur territoire de nidification jusqu'à début septembre, soit un temps de résidence d'environ 90 jours. Ces individus ont quitté juste après le coucher du soleil le jour de leur départ. Douze individus sont partis plus tôt, et de jour, avant la fin du mois d'août; leur départ précoce avait sans doute un but autre que la migration. Neuf individus ont été détectés en dehors de leur territoire de nidification le long de la voie de migration de l'Atlantique : quatre ont migré par la région des Grands Lacs, un dans la vallée des Appalaches, trois le long de la côte atlantique ou de la plaine côtière, et un dont nous n'avons pu déterminer l'itinéraire. Nos résultats indiquent que les Parulines du Canada adultes restent dans la région du Saguenay plus longtemps que prévu et que, bien que certains individus restent à proximité de leur territoire de nidification pendant la période postnuptiale, d'autres peuvent utiliser des territoires environnants avant d'entreprendre leur migration automnale. Nos résultats vont permettre aux gestionnaires de la conservation de recommander à l'industrie régionale de reporter le moment d'activités qui pourraient nuire à la survie de l'espèce. Nous soulignons l'importance de mener des études à l'échelle fine visant des périodes spécifiques du cycle annuel des passereaux migrateurs afin de combler les lacunes importantes dans la compréhension de l'écologie de ceux-ci

Snow Buntings Maintain Winter-Level Cold Endurance While Migrating to the High Arctic

Arctic breeding songbirds migrate early in the spring and can face winter environments requiring cold endurance throughout their journey. One such species, the snow bunting (Plectrophenax nivalis), is known for its significant thermogenic capacity. Empirical studies suggest that buntings can indeed maintain winter cold acclimatization into the migratory and breeding phenotypes when kept captive on their wintering grounds. This capacity could be advantageous not only for migrating in a cold environment, but also for facing unpredictable Arctic weather on arrival and during preparation for breeding. However, migration also typically leads to declines in the sizes of several body components linked to metabolic performance. As such, buntings could also experience some loss of cold endurance as they migrate. Here, we aimed to determine whether free-living snow buntings maintain a cold acclimatized phenotype during spring migration. Using a multi-year dataset, we compared body composition (body mass, fat stores, and pectoralis muscle thickness), oxygen carrying capacity (hematocrit) and metabolic performance (thermogenic capacity – Msum and maintenance energy expenditure – BMR) of birds captured on their wintering grounds (January–February, Rimouski, QC, 48°N) and during pre-breeding (April–May) in the Arctic (Alert, NU, 82°). Our results show that body mass, fat stores and Msum were similar between the two stages, while hematocrit and pectoralis muscle thickness were lower in pre-breeding birds than in wintering individuals. These results suggest that although tissue degradation during migration may affect flight muscle size, buntings are able to maintain cold endurance (i.e., Msum) up to their Arctic breeding grounds. However, BMR was higher during pre-breeding than during winter, suggesting higher maintenance costs in the Arctic

Long-term performance of flexible pavement structures in a changing climate

Abstract: Climate changes may cause an increase of precipitation in the Province of Quebec over the next decades. As the performance of flexible pavement structures is closely related to moisture content of soils and aggregates, these structures can be considered vulnerable to climate changes. In order to quantify the effect of future precipitations increase on the pavement service life, this research project was based on a three steps approach: 1) Establishment of a relationship between precipitations and water content in the subgrade layers; 2) Establishment of the relationship between soils water content and soils mechanical properties, quantified with the resilient modulus and the permanent deformation behaviour; 3) Quantification of the effect of increased precipitations on pavement life, based on modification of their mechanical behaviour due to water content increase. For the example considered in this paper, it was found that the service life of pavement structures submitted to future climate may present a service life reaching 0.72 times the service of actual pavement structures. These results vary depending on the soil and damage types considered. Long-term performance of flexible pavement structures in a changing climat

Optimal human papillomavirus vaccination strategies to prevent cervical cancer in low-income and middle-income countries in the context of limited resources: a mathematical modelling analysis

Introduction of human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccination has been slow in low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs) because of resource constraints and worldwide shortage of vaccine supplies. To help inform WHO recommendations, we modelled various HPV vaccination strategies to examine the optimal use of limited vaccine supplies and best allocation of scarce resources in LMICs in the context of the WHO global call to eliminate cervical cancer as a public health problem. Methods In this mathematical modelling analysis, we developed HPV-ADVISE LMIC, a transmission-dynamic model of HPV infection and diseases calibrated to four LMICs: India, Vietnam, Uganda, and Nigeria. For different vaccination strategies that encompassed use of a nine-valent vaccine (or a two-valent or four-valent vaccine assuming high cross-protection), we estimated three outcomes: reduction in the age-standardised rate of cervical cancer, number of doses needed to prevent one case of cervical cancer (NNV; as a measure of efficiency), and the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER; in 2017 international $per disability-adjusted life-year [DALY] averted). We examined different vaccination strategies by varying the ages of routine HPV vaccination and number of age cohorts vaccinated, the population targeted, and the number of doses used. In our base case, we assumed 100 Findings We predicted that HPV vaccination could lead to cervical cancer elimination in Vietnam, India, and Nigeria, but not in Uganda. Compared with no vaccination, strategies that involved vaccinating girls aged 9-14 years with two doses were predicted to be the most efficient and cost-effective in all four LMICs. NNV ranged from 78 to 381 and ICER ranged from$28 per DALY averted to $1406 per DALY averted depending on the country. The most efficient and cost-effective strategies were routine vaccination of girls aged 14 years, with or without a later switch to routine vaccination of girls aged 9 years, and routine vaccination of girls aged 9 years with a 5-year extended interval between doses and a catch-up programme at age 14 years. Vaccinating boys (aged 9-14 years) or women aged 18 years or older resulted in substantially higher NNVs and ICERs. Interpretation We identified two strategies that could maximise efforts to prevent cervical cancer in LMICs given constraints on vaccine supplies and costs and that would allow a maximum of LMICs to introduce HPV vaccination. Funding World Health Organization, Canadian Institute of Health Research, Fonds de recherche du Québec-Santé, Compute Canada, PATH, and The Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. Translations For the French and Spanish translations of the abstract see Supplementary Materials section