Small sample power of tests of normality when the alternative is an alpha-stable distribution

This paper is a Monte-Carlo study of the small sample power of six tests of a normality hypotheses when the alternative is an alpha-stable distribution with param- eter values similar to those estimated for monthly total returns on equity indices. In these circumstances a sample size of 2oo is required to detect departures from normality. In most cases only small samples of consistent monthly data on such to- tal returns are available and these are not sufficient to differentiate between normal and alpha-stable distributions.

Maximum Likelihood Estimates of Regression Coefficients with alpha-stable residuals and Day of Week effects in Total Returns on Equity Indices

This Paper summarizes the theory of Maximum Likelihood Estimation of regressions with alpha-stable residuals. Day of week effects in returns on equity indices, adjusted for dividends (total returns) are estimated and tested using this and traditional OLS methodology. I find that the alpha-stable methodology is feasible. There are some differences in the results from the two methodologies. The conclusion remains that if individual coefficients are of interest and the residuals have fat tails and a possible alpha-stable distribution, the results can be checked for robustness using methods such as those employed here.alpha stable distribution, regression, day of week effects

A RATS subroutine to implement the Chow-Lin distribution/interpolation procedure

This paper describes a RATS (www.estima.com) routine to implement the Chow Lin (1971) procedure for the best linear unbiased distribution and interpolation of time series by related series. Various versions of this procedure have been used in the Bank to distribute/interpolate annual to quarterly time series. One particular use of the routine described here has been to derive quarterly national accounts that have been used to estimate a quarterly macro model of the Irish economy and in various other research studies in the Bank. A zip archive containing a pdf version of the paper, the RATS routine, a sample program and data is available for download. The archive was created using Info-ZIP’s WIZ (http://www.info-zip.org/pub/infozip/WiZ.html) and may be expanded using this program or similar program.

Inflation and Money Growth - Evidence from a Multi-Country Data-Set

Using a multi-country data set strong correlation are found between average growth rates of monetary aggregates and average inflation. The correlation remains strong when countries with higher average inflation rates are removed from the sample. These results confirm the strong correlation found in the traditional literature but contradict those in De Grauwe and Polan (2001) who, in a recent analysis, find that the strong link vanishes when higher inflation countries are excluded. Further analysis confirms the unit response and bears out the value of monetary aggregates as an input to the making of monetary policy.

Market Risk: An introduction to the concept & analytics of Value-at-risk.

In recent years the concept of Value-at-risk has achieved prominence among risk managers for the purpose of market risk measurement and control. Spurred by the increasing complexity and volume of trade in derivatives, and by the numerous headline cases of institutions sustaining enormous losses from their derivatives activities, risk managers have acknowledged the need for a unified risk measurement and management strategy. Furthermore, the regulatory authorities, recognising the systemic threat posed by the growth and complexity of derivatives trading, moved swiftly to address this problem. As a result, the European Union approved EC/93/6, "The Capital Adequacy Directive", which mandates financial institutions to quantify and measure risk on an aggregate basis and to set aside capital to cover potential losses which might accrue from their market positions. More recently, the Basle committee of the BIS published an amendment to the "Capital Accord" which makes provision for the use of proprietary in-house models to be employed instead of the original framework. The proposed basis of these in-house models is the value-at-risk framework. In this paper, we present an introductory exposition to the concept of Value-at-risk describing, among other things, the methods commonly employed in its calculation, and a brief critique of each.

Estimating Investment Functions for a Small-Scale Econometric Model

This note summarises the results of an exercise in estimating investment functions for inclusion in a small-scale econometric model of the economy. The overall exercise in model-building is a joint project involving three staff from Economic Analysis, Research and Publications. Its aim is to produce a small-scale model of the economy with reasonably good forecasting and policy simulation properties. One of the main difficulties with previous versions of the model and, indeed, with some other models of the Irish economy is their relatively unsatisfactory modelling of investment. The estimated equations generally have poor fit compared to other areas of the model resulting in rather large forecast errors and undermining confidence in policy simulations.

How a Tweet Brought People to the Street: Social Media and the Success of Ni Una Menos

Femicide is a problem all over the globe, taking one women every six hours. In Argentina, the Ni Una Menos movement was formed with the main goal of decreasing the number of femicides happening in Argentina each year. The Ni Una Menos movement draws from the success of the Mothers of the Plaza de Mayo while at the same time integrating 21st century mass media to galvanize the public towards effective social and political change

Leading from Behind: The EU’s Normative Power in the Multilateral Promotion of Human Rights in Africa. College of Europe EU Diplomacy Paper 9/2020.

The multilateral human rights policy of the European Union (EU) is predicated on the presumption that the human rights it promotes are universally understood. Yet, the liberal international order which underpinned these norms is in decline and the world is witnessing a shift to new modes of multilateral engagement – modes in which the EU’s vision of human rights is not necessarily the set standard. By analysing qualitative data from two case studies, this paper sets out to identify the conditions in which the EU can act normatively in these new modes of multilateralism. The paper identifies two major trends that have emerged in multilateral human rights promotion: new diplomacy and multilateralism 2.0, whose intersections form what this paper labels as rejuvenated multilateralism. It is this concept which serves as a conceptual basis for addressing the research question. This paper argues that conditions in which the EU can act normatively in configurations of rejuvenated multilateralism are determined by normative ethics. In more concrete terms, the degrees of accountability and civil society ownership shape the ability of the EU to normatively promote human rights. The findings of two case studies on multilateral human rights promotion in Africa demonstrate that the EU is best placed to act normatively when there are high levels of accountability and ownership by civil society organisations. These findings have implications both for the study of EU human rights promotion and for the EU approach to multilateralism more generally. They suggest that the EU must champion its causes by ‘leading from behind’

Chemoreception and feeding in the grey field slug, Deroceras reticulatum (Müller), with reference to molluscicide formulation

PhDStudies on Deroceras reticulatum (Müller), the grey field slug, indicate that this animal is responsive to food odours and can therefore. select its food. Olfactory responses to food odours are monitored by distance chemoreceptors while contact chemoreception is responsible for the gustatory stimuli associated with taste. Both types of sensory perception are important in the feeding cycle. The former has been investigated with the aid of a timelapse camera and the behaviour of slugs monitored in the presence of various food materials and their components. Gustatory responses have been assessed by a feeding assay which permits the quantitive analysis of food ingested. These two aspects of feeding behaviour have been combined to provide a framework for the improved formulation of slug baits for use in agriculture. The two molluscicides metaldehyde and methiocarb have been compared in laboratory and field tests for their efficiency in poisoning slugs and their effects on soil fauna. The field results, which included comparisons between laboratory and commercial metaldehyde formulations, indicate the importance of monitoring the residual population of slugs which remains after baiting. It appears that the true level of bait efficiency may be obscured if tests are concerned only with recording the number of poisoned animals trapped. The addition of a mammal repellent to slug baits does not appear to adversely affect their attraction to slugs but individual formulations may vary considerably in both their palatability and their effectiveness. The laboratory feeding tests have suggested that Derbceras reticulatum habituates to certain diets and that the feeding response may decline over a few days - this can be restored by presenting a novel food to the animals. The meal size of this species can be manipulated in the laboratory by altering the diet'and by the addition of attractive components. Some attempt has been made to define these compounds with a view to improving the consumption of baits by slugs in the field