Spatio-Temporal Low Count Processes with Application to Violent Crime Events

There is significant interest in being able to predict where crimes will happen, for example to aid in the efficient tasking of police and other protective measures. We aim to model both the temporal and spatial dependencies often exhibited by violent crimes in order to make such predictions. The temporal variation of crimes typically follows patterns familiar in time series analysis, but the spatial patterns are irregular and do not vary smoothly across the area. Instead we find that spatially disjoint regions exhibit correlated crime patterns. It is this indeterminate inter-region correlation structure along with the low-count, discrete nature of counts of serious crimes that motivates our proposed forecasting tool. In particular, we propose to model the crime counts in each region using an integer-valued first order autoregressive process. We take a Bayesian nonparametric approach to flexibly discover a clustering of these region-specific time series. We then describe how to account for covariates within this framework. Both approaches adjust for seasonality. We demonstrate our approach through an analysis of weekly reported violent crimes in Washington, D.C. between 2001-2008. Our forecasts outperform standard methods while additionally providing useful tools such as prediction intervals

Ecophysiology of coral reef primary producers across an upwelling gradient in the tropical central Pacific

© The Author(s), 2020. This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License. The definitive version was published in Johnson, M. D., Fox, M. D., Kelly, E. L. A., Zgliczynski, B. J., Sandin, S. A., & Smith, J. E. Ecophysiology of coral reef primary producers across an upwelling gradient in the tropical central Pacific. Plos One, 15(2), (2020): e0228448, doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0228448.Upwelling is an important source of inorganic nutrients in marine systems, yet little is known about how gradients in upwelling affect primary producers on coral reefs. The Southern Line Islands span a natural gradient of inorganic nutrient concentrations across the equatorial upwelling region in the central Pacific. We used this gradient to test the hypothesis that benthic autotroph ecophysiology is enhanced on nutrient-enriched reefs. We measured metabolism and photophysiology of common benthic taxa, including the algae Porolithon, Avrainvillea, and Halimeda, and the corals Pocillopora and Montipora. We found that temperature (27.2–28.7°C) was inversely related to dissolved inorganic nitrogen (0.46–4.63 μM) and surface chlorophyll a concentrations (0.108–0.147 mg m-3), which increased near the equator. Contrary to our prediction, ecophysiology did not consistently track these patterns in all taxa. Though metabolic rates were generally variable, Porolithon and Avrainvillea photosynthesis was highest at the most productive and equatorial island (northernmost). Porolithon photosynthetic rates also generally increased with proximity to the equator. Photophysiology (maximum quantum yield) increased near the equator and was highest at northern islands in all taxa. Photosynthetic pigments also were variable, but chlorophyll a and carotenoids in Avrainvillea and Montipora were highest at the northern islands. Phycobilin pigments of Porolithon responded most consistently across the upwelling gradient, with higher phycoerythrin concentrations closer to the equator. Our findings demonstrate that the effects of in situ nutrient enrichment on benthic autotrophs may be more complex than laboratory experiments indicate. While upwelling is an important feature in some reef ecosystems, ancillary factors may regulate the associated consequences of nutrient enrichment on benthic reef organisms.This work was supported by funding from the Moore Family Foundation, the Gordon and Betty Moore Foundation, the Scripps family, and anonymous donors. The funders had no role in study design, data collection and analysis, or preparation of the manuscript

Talking On Your Cell Phone and Ethical Responsibility: How Many Children Died for Your Battery?

Ethics has been an increasingly important topic in business and many issues stem from this broad subject.Especially when companies cross borders to conduct business, the lines for what is ethical begin to blur whencosts and profits are concerned. Thus, many issues emerge when looking at environmental and socialresponsibility, such as environmental friendliness, local manufacturing, and child labor. These ethical issues havebrought about standards of conduct for businesses as consumers tend to react poorly when an ethical line hasbeen crossed. This study attempts to look at how one such issue, child labor, impacts the purchasing behaviorsof consumers for the cell phone industry. Coltan is a raw mineral that is used in many technologies, including thebatteries of cell phones and computers. This mineral is currently being mined using child labor in Africa,specifically the country of Congo. Unfortunately, this issue has not been publicized and cell phone companies arenot currently being held accountable for where the coltan for their cell phones is coming from. Thus, the purposeof this study is to expose this ethical dilemma and measure the potential effect on consumers within the cellphone industry

Sex Differences in Spatial Accuracy Relate to the Neural Activation of Antagonistic Muscles in Young Adults

Sex is an important physiological variable of behavior, but its effect on motor control remains poorly understood. Some evidence suggests that women exhibit greater variability during constant contractions and poorer accuracy during goal-directed tasks. However, it remains unclear whether motor output variability or altered muscle activation impairs accuracy in women. Here, we examine sex differences in endpoint accuracy during ankle goal-directed movements and the activity of the antagonistic muscles. Ten women (23.1 ± 5.1 years) and 10 men (23 ± 3.7 years) aimed to match a target (9° in 180 ms) with ankle dorsiflexion. Participants performed 50 trials and we recorded the endpoint accuracy and the electromyographic (EMG) activity of the primary agonist (Tibialis Anterior; TA) and antagonist (Soleus; SOL) muscles. Women exhibited greater spatial inaccuracy (Position error: t = −2.65, P = 0.016) but not temporal inaccuracy relative to men. The motor output variability was similar for the two sexes (P \u3e 0.2). The spatial inaccuracy in women was related to greater variability in the coordination of the antagonistic muscles (R 2 0.19, P = 0.03). These findings suggest that women are spatially less accurate than men during fast goal-directed movements likely due to an altered activation of the antagonistic muscles

Climate Change Adaptation Challenges Facing New Brunswick Coastal Communities: A Review of the Problems and a Synthesis of Solutions Suggested by Regional Adaptation Research

Through a detailed examination of research conducted in Sackville, New Brunswick, this study synthesizes the findings of a series of focus groups and one-on-one interviews with the aim of achieving the following objectives: to identify and elucidate the important challenges related to climate change that New Brunswick coastal communities are currently facing; and to highlight solutions to these challenges. A number of key impediments are identified (e.g., low levels of community consensus) and the following solutions are proposed: to use flood risk visualization and software to aid adaptation planning; to ensure that high quality data are routinely gathered and shared; to build on ongoing community collaboration and communication; and to strengthen political and community leadership.Grâce à un examen détaillé d’une recherche menée à Sackville, au Nouveau-Brunswick, cette étude résume les trouvailles d’une série de groupes de discussion et d’entretiens de face à face en vue de réaliser les objectifs suivants : déterminer et élucider les défis importants en matière de changement climatique auxquels sont actuellement aux prises les populations côtières du Nouveau-Brunswick et mettre en évidence des solutions aux problèmes en question. On a cerné un certain nombre de principaux obstacles (p. ex. peu de consensus au sein des membres de la collectivité), et les solutions suivantes ont été proposées : utiliser la visualisation des zones exposées aux inondations et des logiciels afin de faciliter le programme d’adaptation, veiller à ce que des données de grande qualité soient recueillies régulièrement et partagées, miser sur la collaboration et la communication continues au sein de la collectivité, renforcer le leadership politique et communautaire

The Epistemic Dimension of Competence in the Social Sciences

To investigate competence in the social sciences, we propose to define competence as a particular configuration of the learner’s cognition, strategic repertoire, motivation, and orientation toward knowing. Specifically, we focus on epistemic beliefs and on the changes that a view of knowing as a complex, effortful, generative, evidence-seeking, and reflective enterprise entails. In this context, we discuss how familiarity with the processes used to justify knowledge claims within specific disciplinary communities can provide useful tools to develop the kind of adaptive and consistent thinking that characterize competence in different domains and how this focus may aid the identification of characteristics common across domains. We use our empirical exploration of adolescents’ development of competence in the domain of history to illustrate the implications of this theoretical framework, to highlight the relations between domain-specific epistemic beliefs and kind of understanding that students built as a result of reading multiple texts, and to suggest what pedagogical practices may have influenced students’ orientations toward knowing in these three history classes

Patterns of Variations in \u3ci\u3eEscherichia coli\u3c/i\u3e Strains That Produce Cytolethal Distending Toxin

A collection of 20 Escherichia coli strains that produce cytolethal distending toxin (CDT) were analyzed for their virulence-associated genes. All of these strains were serotyped, and multiplex PCR analysis was used to ascertain the presence of genes encoding other virulence factors, including Shiga toxin, intimin, enterohemolysin, cytotoxic necrotizing factor type 1 (CNF1) and CNF2, heat-stable toxin, and heat-labile toxin. These CDT-producing strains possessed various combinations of known virulence genes, some of which have not been noted before. Partial cdtB sequences were obtained from 10 of these strains, and their predicted CdtB sequences were compared to known E. coli CdtB sequences; some of the sequences were identical to known CdtB sequences, but two were not. PCR primers based on sequence differences between the known cdt sequences were tested for their ability to detect CDT producers and to determine CDT type. Correlations between the type of CDT produced, the presence of other virulence properties, and overall strain relatedness revealed that the CDT producers studied here can be divided into three general groups, with distinct differences in CDT type and in their complement of virulence-associated genes

Developmental remodeling of relay cells in the dorsal lateral geniculate nucleus in the absence of retinal input

Background The dorsal lateral geniculate nucleus (dLGN) of the mouse has been an important experimental model for understanding thalamic circuit development. The developmental remodeling of retinal projections has been the primary focus, however much less is known about the maturation of their synaptic targets, the relay cells of the dLGN. Here we examined the growth and maturation of relay cells during the first few weeks of life and addressed whether early retinal innervation affects their development. To accomplish this we utilized themath5 null (math5−/−) mouse, a mutant lacking retinal ganglion cells and central projections. Results The absence of retinogeniculate axon innervation led to an overall shrinkage of dLGN and disrupted the pattern of dendritic growth among developing relay cells. 3-D reconstructions of biocytin filled neurons frommath5−/− mice showed that in the absence of retinal input relay cells undergo a period of exuberant dendritic growth and branching, followed by branch elimination and an overall attenuation in dendritic field size. However, math5−/− relay cells retained a sufficient degree of complexity and class specificity, as well as their basic membrane properties and spike firing characteristics. Conclusions Retinal innervation plays an important trophic role in dLGN development. Additional support perhaps arising from non-retinal innervation and signaling is likely to contribute to the stabilization of their dendritic form and function

A polymorphism in the interleukin-4 receptor affects the ability of interleukin-4 to regulate Th17 cells: a possible immunoregulatory mechanism for genetic control of the severity of rheumatoid arthritis

Peer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/94408/1/Wallis_2011_Polymorphism_interleukin-4_receptor.pdf165