A hydrogeomorphic assessment of twenty-first century floods in the UK

The occurrence of devastating floods in the British uplands during the first two decades of the twenty-first century poses two key questions: (1) are recent events unprecedented in terms of their frequency and magnitude; and (2) is climate and/or land-use change driving the apparent upturn in flooding? Conventional methods of analysing instrumental flow records cannot answer these questions because upland catchments are usually ungauged, and where records do exist they rarely provide more than 30-40 years of data. In this paper we analyse all lichen-dated upland flood records in the United Kingdom (UK) to establish the longer-term context and causes of recent severe flooding. Our new analysis of torrential sedimentary deposits shows that twenty-first century floods are not unprecedented in terms of both their frequency (they were more frequent before 1960) and magnitude (the biggest events occurred during the seventeenth-nineteenth centuries). However, in some areas recent floods have either equalled or exceeded the largest historical events. The majority of recent floods have been triggered by torrential summer downpours related to a marked negative phase of the summer North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) between 2007 and 2012. It is of concern that historical data suggests there is far more capacity in the North Atlantic climate system to produce wetter and more prolonged flood-rich periods than hitherto experienced in the twenty-first century. Looking forwards, an increased likelihood of weather extremes due to climate change means that geomorphological based flood series extensions must be placed at the centre of flood risk assessment in the UK uplands and in similar areas worldwide. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd

Geomorphological records of extreme floods and their relationship to decadal-scale climate change

Extreme rainfall and flood events in steep upland catchments leave geomorphological traces of their occurrence in the form of boulder berms, debris cones, and alluvial fans. Constraining the age of these features is critical to understanding (i) landscape evolution in response to past, present, and future climate changes; and (ii) the magnitude–frequency of extreme, ungauged floods in small upland catchments. This research focuses on the Cambrian Mountains of Wales, UK, where lichenometric dating of geomorphological features and palaeohydrological reconstructions is combined with climatological data and documentary flood records. Our new data from Wales highlight a distinct flood-rich period between 1900 and 1960, similar to many other UK lichen-dated records. However, this study sheds new light on the underlying climatic controls on upland flooding in small catchments. Although floods can occur in any season, their timing is best explained by the Summer North Atlantic Oscillation (SNAO) and shifts between negative (wetter than average conditions with regular cyclonic flow and flooding) and positive phases (drier than average conditions with less frequent cyclonic flow and flooding), which vary from individual summers to decadal and multidecadal periods. Recent wet summer weath-er, flooding, and boulder-berm deposition in the UK (2007–2012) are related to a pronounced negative phase shift of the SNAO. There is also increasing evidence that recent summer weather extremes in the mid-latitudes may be related to Arctic amplification and rapid sea ice loss. If this is the case, continuing and future climate change is likely to mean that (i) unusual weather patterns become more frequent; and (ii) upland UK catchments will experience heightened flood risk and significant geomorphological changes

Incorporating sedimentological data in UK flood frequency estimation

This study presents a new analytical framework for combining historical flood data derived from sedimentological records with instrumental river flow data to increase the reliability of flood risk assessments. Historical flood records were established for two catchments through re-analysis of sedimentological records; the Nant Cwm-du, a small, steep upland catchment in the Cambrian Mountains of Wales, and a piedmont reach of the River Severn in mid Wales. The proposed framework is based on maximum likelihood and least-square estimation methods in combination with a Generalised Logistic distribution; this enables the sedimentological data to be combined effectively with existing instrumental river flow data. The results from this study are compared to results obtained using existing industry standard methods based solely on instrumental data. The comparison shows that inclusion of sedimentological data can have an important impact on flood risk estimates, and that the methods are sensitive to assumptions made in the conversion of the sedimentological records into flood flow data. As current industry standard methods for flood risk analysis are known to be highly uncertain, the ability to include additional evidence of past flood events derived from sedimentological records as demonstrated in this study can have a significant impact on flood risk assessments

Should the Health Community Promote Smokeless Tobacco (Snus) as a Harm Reduction Measure?

Background to the debate: The tobacco control community is divided on whether or not to inform the public that using oral, smokeless tobacco (Swedish snus) is less hazardous to health than smoking tobacco. Proponents of “harm reduction” point to the Swedish experience. Snus seems to be widely used as an alternative to cigarettes in Sweden, say these proponents, contributing to the low overall prevalence of smoking and smoking-related disease. Harm reduction proponents thus argue that the health community should actively inform inveterate cigarette smokers of the benefits of switching to snus. However, critics of harm reduction say that snus has its own risks, that no form of tobacco should ever be promoted, and that Sweden's experience is likely to be specific to that culture and not transferable to other settings. Critics also remain deeply suspicious that the tobacco industry will use snus marketing as a “gateway” to promote cigarettes. In the interests of promoting debate, the authors (who are collaborators on a research project on the future of tobacco control) have agreed to outline the strongest arguments for and against promoting Swedish snus as a form of harm reduction

Smoking and Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease (COPD). Parallel Epidemics of the 21st Century

One hundred million deaths were caused by tobacco in the 20th century, and it is estimated that there will be up to one billion deaths attributed to tobacco use in the 21st century. Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) is rapidly becoming a global public health crisis with smoking being recognized as its most important causative factor. The most effective available treatment for COPD is smoking cessation. There is mounting evidence that the rate of progression of COPD can be reduced when patients at risk of developing the disease stop smoking, while lifelong smokers have a 50% probability of developing COPD during their lifetime. More significantly, there is also evidence that the risk of developing COPD falls by about half with smoking cessation. Several pharmacological interventions now exist to aid smokers in cessation; these include nicotine replacement therapy, bupropion, and varenicline. All pharmacotherapies for smoking cessation are more efficacious than placebo, with odds ratios of about 2. Pharmacologic therapy should be combined with nonpharmacologic (behavioral) therapy. Unfortunately, despite the documented efficacy of these agents, the absolute number of patients who are abstinent from smoking at 12 months of follow-up is low

Immune-Phenotyping and Transcriptomic Profiling of Peripheral Blood Mononuclear Cells From Patients With Breast Cancer: Identification of a 3 Gene Signature Which Predicts Relapse of Triple Negative Breast Cancer

Background: Interactions between the immune system and tumors are highly reciprocal in nature, leading to speculation that tumor recurrence or therapeutic resistance could be influenced or predicted by immune events that manifest locally, but can be detected systemically.Methods: Multi-parameter flow cytometry was used to examine the percentage and phenotype of natural killer (NK) cells, myeloid-derived suppressor cells (MDSCs), monocyte subsets and regulatory T (Treg) cells in the peripheral blood of of 85 patients with breast cancer (50 of whom were assessed before and after one cycle of anthracycline-based chemotherapy), and 23 controls. Transcriptomic profiles of peripheral blood mononuclear cells (PBMCs) in 23 patients were generated using a NanoString gene profiling platform.Results: An increased percentage of immunosuppressive cells such as granulocytic MDSCs, intermediate CD14++CD16+ monocytes and CD127negCD25highFoxP3+ Treg cells was observed in patients with breast cancer, especially patients with stage 3 and 4 disease, regardless of ER status. Following neoadjuvant chemotherapy, B cell numbers decreased significantly, whereas monocyte numbers increased. Although chemotherapy had no effect on the percentage of Treg, MDSC and NK cells, the expression of inhibitory receptors CD85j, LIAR and NKG2A and activating receptors NKp30 and NKp44 on NK cells increased, concomitant with a decreased expression of NKp46 and DNAM-1 activating receptors. Transcriptomic profiling revealed a distinct group of 3 patients in the triple negative breast cancer (TNBC) cohort who expressed high levels of mRNA encoding genes predominantly involved in inflammation. The analysis of a large transcriptomic dataset derived from the tumors of patients with TNBC revealed that the expression of CD163, CXCR4, THBS1 predicted relapse-free survival.Conclusions: The peripheral blood immunome of patients with breast cancer is influenced by the presence and stage of cancer, but not by molecular subtypes. Furthermore, immune profiling coupled with transcriptomic analyses of peripheral blood cells may identify patients with TNBC that are at risk of relapse after chemotherapy

Quantifying fossil fuel methane emissions using observations of atmospheric ethane and an uncertain emission ratio

We present a method for estimating fossil fuel methane emissions using observations of methane and ethane, accounting for uncertainty in their emission ratio. The ethane:methane emission ratio is incorporated as a spatially and temporally variable parameter in a Bayesian model, with its own prior distribution and uncertainty. We find that using an emission ratio distribution mitigates bias from using a fixed, potentially incorrect emission ratio and that uncertainty in this ratio is propagated into posterior estimates of emissions. A synthetic data test is used to show the impact of assuming an incorrect ethane:methane emission ratio and demonstrate how our variable parameter model can better quantify overall uncertainty. We also use this method to estimate UK methane emissions from high-frequency observations of methane and ethane from the UK Deriving Emissions linked to Climate Change (DECC) network. Using the joint methane–ethane inverse model, we estimate annual mean UK methane emissions of approximately 0.27 (95 % uncertainty interval 0.26–0.29) Tg yr−1 from fossil fuel sources and 2.06 (1.99–2.15) Tg yr−1 from non-fossil fuel sources, during the period 2015–2019. Uncertainties in UK fossil fuel emissions estimates are reduced on average by 15 % and up to 35 % when incorporating ethane into the inverse model, in comparison to results from the methane-only inversion

KwARG : Parsimonious reconstruction of ancestral recombination graphs with recurrent mutation

Motivation The reconstruction of possible histories given a sample of genetic data in the presence of recombination and recurrent mutation is a challenging problem, but can provide key insights into the evolution of a population. We present KwARG, which implements a parsimony-based greedy heuristic algorithm for finding plausible genealogical histories (ancestral recombination graphs) that are minimal or near-minimal in the number of posited recombination and mutation events. Results Given an input dataset of aligned sequences, KwARG outputs a list of possible candidate solutions, each comprising a list of mutation and recombination events that could have generated the dataset; the relative proportion of recombinations and recurrent mutations in a solution can be controlled via specifying a set of ‘cost’ parameters. We demonstrate that the algorithm performs well when compared against existing methods. Availability The software is available at https://github.com/a-ignatieva/kwarg. Supplementary information Supplementary materials are available at Bioinformatics online