Tactical Voting in Plurality Elections

How often will elections end in landslides? What is the probability for a head-to-head race? Analyzing ballot results from several large countries rather anomalous and yet unexplained distributions have been observed. We identify tactical voting as the driving ingredient for the anomalies and introduce a model to study its effect on plurality elections, characterized by the relative strength of the feedback from polls and the pairwise interaction between individuals in the society. With this model it becomes possible to explain the polarization of votes between two candidates, understand the small margin of victories frequently observed for different elections, and analyze the polls' impact in American, Canadian, and Brazilian ballots. Moreover, the model reproduces, quantitatively, the distribution of votes obtained in the Brazilian mayor elections with two, three, and four candidates.Comment: 7 pages, 4 figure

Cultural Phylogenetics of the Tupi Language Family in Lowland South America

Background: Recent advances in automated assessment of basic vocabulary lists allow the construction of linguistic phylogenies useful for tracing dynamics of human population expansions, reconstructing ancestral cultures, and modeling transition rates of cultural traits over time. Methods: Here we investigate the Tupi expansion, a widely-dispersed language family in lowland South America, with a distance-based phylogeny based on 40-word vocabulary lists from 48 languages. We coded 11 cultural traits across the diverse Tupi family including traditional warfare patterns, post-marital residence, corporate structure, community size, paternity beliefs, sibling terminology, presence of canoes, tattooing, shamanism, men’s houses, and lip plugs. Results/Discussion: The linguistic phylogeny supports a Tupi homeland in west-central Brazil with subsequent major expansions across much of lowland South America. Consistently, ancestral reconstructions of cultural traits over the linguistic phylogeny suggest that social complexity has tended to decline through time, most notably in the independent emergence of several nomadic hunter-gatherer societies. Estimated rates of cultural change across the Tupi expansion are on the order of only a few changes per 10,000 years, in accord with previous cultural phylogenetic results in other languag

Correlating diameter, mechanical and structural properties of poly(l-lactide) fibres from needleless electrospinning

The development and application of nanofibres requires a thorough understanding of the mechanical properties on a single fibre level including respective modelling tools for precise fibre analysis. This work presents a mechanical and morphological study of poly-l-lactide nanofibres developed by needleless electrospinning. Atomic force microscopy (AFM) and micromechanical testing (MMT) were used to characterise the mechanical response of the fibres within a diameter range of 200–1400 nm. Young’s moduli E determined by means of both methods are in sound agreement and show a strong increase for thinner fibres below a critical diameter of 800 nm. Similar increasing trends for yield stress and hardening modulus were measured by MMT. Finite element analyses show that the common practice of modelling three-point bending tests with either double supported or double clamped beams is prone to significant bias in the determined elastic properties, and that the latter is a good approximation only for small diameters. Therefore, an analytical formula based on intermediate boundary conditions is proposed that is valid for the whole tested range of fibre diameters, providing a consistently low error in axial Young’s modulus below 10%. The analysis of fibre morphology by differential scanning calorimetry and 2D wide-angle X-ray scattering revealed increasing polymer chains alignment in the amorphous phase and higher crystallinity of fibres for decreasing diameter. The combination of these observations with the mechanical characterisation suggests a linear relationship between Young’s modulus and both crystallinity and molecular orientation in the amorphous phase

The hw-rank: an h-index variant for ranking web pages

We introduce a novel ranking of search results based on a variant of the h-index for directed information networks such as the Web. The h-index was originally introduced to measure an individual researcher’s scientific output and influence, but here a variant of it is applied to assess the ‘‘importance’’ of web pages. Like PageRank, the‘‘importance’’ of a page is defined by the ‘‘importance’’ of the pages linking to it. However, unlike the computation of PageRank which involves the whole web graph, computing the h-index for web pages (the hw-rank) is based on a local computation and only the neighbors of the neighbors of the given node are considered. Preliminary results show a strong correlation between ranking with the hw-rank and PageRank, and moreover its computation is simpler and less complex than computation of the PageRank. Further, larger scale experiments are needed in order to assess the applicability of the method

Matrix Metalloproteinase-1 and -9 in Human Placenta during Spontaneous Vaginal Delivery and Caesarean Sectioning in Preterm Pregnancy

Preterm birth is a major public health problem in terms of loss of life, long-term and short term disabilities worldwide. The process of parturition (both term and preterm) involves intensive remodelling of the extracellular matrix (ECM) in the placenta and fetal membranes by matrix metalloproteinases (MMPs). Our previous studies show reduced docosahexaenoic acid (DHA) in women delivering preterm. Further omega 3 fatty acids are reported to regulate MMP levels. This study was undertaken to examine the placental levels of MMPs and their association with placental DHA levels in women delivering preterm. The levels of MMP-1 and MMP-9 in 74 women delivering preterm (52 by spontaneous vaginal delivery and 22 by caesarean sectioning) and 75 women delivering at term (59 by spontaneous vaginal delivery and 16 by caesarean sectioning) were determined by enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA) and their association with placental DHA was studied. Placental MMP-1 levels were higher (p<0.05) in women delivering preterm (both by spontaneous vaginal delivery and caesarean sectioning) as compared to those delivering at term. In contrast, placental MMP-9 levels in preterm pregnancies was higher (p<0.05) in women with spontaneous vaginal delivery while lower (p<0.05) in women delivering by caesarean sectioning. Low placental DHA was associated with higher placental MMP-9 levels. Our study suggests a differential effect of mode of delivery on the levels of MMPs from placenta. Further this study suggests a negative association of DHA and the levels of MMP-9 in human placenta although the mechanisms need further study

Polymorphisms in immunoregulatory genes and the risk of histologic chorioamnionitis in Caucasoid women: a case control study

BACKGROUND: Chorioamnionitis is a common underlying cause of preterm birth (PTB). It is hypothesised that polymorphisms in immunoregulatory genes influence the host response to infection and subsequent preterm birth. The relationship between histologic chorioamnionitis and 22 single nucleotide polymorphisms in 11 immunoregulatory genes was examined in a case-control study. METHODS: Placentas of 181 Caucasoid women with spontaneous PTB prior to 35 weeks were examined for histologic chorioamnionitis. Polymorphisms in genes IL1A, IL1B, IL1RN, IL1R1, tumour necrosis factor (TNF), IL4, IL6, IL10, transforming growth factor beta-1 (TGFB1), Fas (TNFRSF6), and mannose-binding lectin (MBL2) were genotyped by polymerase chain reaction and sequence specific primers. Multivariable logistic regression including demographic and genetic variables and Kaplan-Meier survival analyses of genotype frequencies and pregnancy outcome were performed. RESULTS: Sixty-nine (34%) women had histologic evidence of acute chorioamnionitis. Carriage of the IL10-1082A/-819T/592A (ATA) haplotype [Multivariable Odds ratio (MOR) 1.9, P = 0.05] and MBL2 codon 54Asp allele (MOR 2.0, P = 0.04), were positively associated with chorioamnionitis, while the TNFRSF6-1377A/-670G (AG) haplotype (MOR 0.4, P = 0.03) and homozygosity for TGFB1-800G/509T (GT) haplotype (MOR 0.2, P = 0.04) were negatively associated. CONCLUSION: These findings demonstrate that polymorphisms in immunoregulatory genes IL10, MBL2, TNFRSF6 and TGFB1 may influence susceptibility to chorioamnionitis

Pathways for horizontal gene transfer in bacteria revealed by a global map of their plasmids

Plasmids can mediate horizontal gene transfer of antibiotic resistance, virulence genes, and other adaptive factors across bacterial populations. Here, we analyze genomic composition and pairwise sequence identity for over 10,000 reference plasmids to obtain a global map of the prokaryotic plasmidome. Plasmids in this map organize into discrete clusters, which we call plasmid taxonomic units (PTUs), with high average nucleotide identity between its members. We identify 83 PTUs in the order Enterobacterales, 28 of them corresponding to previously described archetypes. Furthermore, we develop an automated algorithm for PTU identification, and validate its performance using stochastic blockmodeling. The algorithm reveals a total of 276 PTUs in the bacterial domain. Each PTU exhibits a characteristic host distribution, organized into a six-grade scale (I-VI), ranging from plasmids restricted to a single host species (grade I) to plasmids able to colonize species from different phyla (grade VI). More than 60% of the plasmids in the global map are in groups with host ranges beyond the species barrier.This work was funded by grant BFU2017-86378-P from the Spanish MINEC

A unified approach for a posteriori high-order curved mesh generation using solid mechanics

The paper presents a unified approach for the a posteriori generation of arbitrary high-order curvilinear meshes via a solid mechanics analogy. The approach encompasses a variety of methodologies, ranging from the popular incremental linear elastic approach to very sophisticated non-linear elasticity. In addition, an intermediate consistent incrementally linearised approach is also presented and applied for the first time in this context. Utilising a consistent derivation from energy principles, a theoretical comparison of the various approaches is presented which enables a detailed discussion regarding the material characterisation (calibration) employed for the different solid mechanics formulations. Five independent quality measures are proposed and their relations with existing quality indicators, used in the context of a posteriori mesh generation, are discussed. Finally, a comprehensive range of numerical examples, both in two and three dimensions, including challenging geometries of interest to the solids, fluids and electromagnetics communities, are shown in order to illustrate and thoroughly compare the performance of the different methodologies. This comparison considers the influence of material parameters and number of load increments on the quality of the generated high-order mesh, overall computational cost and, crucially, the approximation properties of the resulting mesh when considering an isoparametric finite element formulation