Scenarios for heating and cooling demand in the European residential sector until 2030

For various planning and policy issues the estimation of future development of heating and cooling demand is of great importance. In this paper we provide exemplary model results for the development of heating and cooling demand for 31 European countries which have been developed in the project Mapping and analyses for the current and future (2020 - 2030) heating/cooling fuel development. (See Fleiter, T.; Steinbach, J.; Ragwitz et.al.). Within this article we focus on the analysis of relevafornt indicators such as the development of total heat demand, specific heat demand per m2, shares of the end use categories space heating, water heating and space cooling as well as renewable shares and CO2 emissions. Additionally to the descriptive part of this study in which we want to provide a snapshot on heating and cooling demand in the European Heating and cooling demand we also discuss potentials for additional CO2 reduction potentials of the residential building stock

Challenges and Lessons Learned in Applying Sensitivity Analysis to Building Stock Energy Models

Uncertainty Analysis (UA) and Sensitivity Analysis (SA) offer essential tools to determine the limits of inference of a model and explore the factors which have the most effect on the model outputs. However, despite a well-established body of work applying UA and SA to models of individual buildings, a review of the literature relating to energy models for larger groups of buildings undertaken by Fennell et al. (2019) highlighted very limited application at larger scales. This contribution describes the efforts undertaken by a group of research teams in the context of IEA-EBC Annex 70 working with a diverse set of Building Stock Models (BSMs) to apply global sensitivity analysis methods and compare their results. Since BSMs are a class of model defined by their output and coverage rather than their structure and inputs, they represent a diverse set of modelling approaches. Key challenges for the application of SA are identified and explored, including the influence of model form, input data types and model outputs. This study combines results from 7 different modelling teams, each using different models across a range of urban areas to explore these challenges and begin the process of developing standardised workflows for SA of BSMs

Techno economic analysis of individual building renovation roadmaps as an instrument to achieve national energy performance targets

The final publication is available via https://doi.org/10.14305/ibpc.2018.pe-1.05.In order to achieve the Paris COP21 agreement, retrofitting activities in the building stock have to be strongly enhanced and individual building renovation roadmaps are an instrument considered relevant for guiding building owners through this process. The research question of this paper is: What is the role of individual building renovation roadmaps as instrument to achieve national targets for the energy performance of the building stock? The methodology applied follow: first, the bottom-up building stock model Invert/EE-Lab (www.invert.at) to derives scenarios of building related energy demand, CO2-emissions and costs until the year 2050. These scenarios build on a monthly balance energy need calculation, which is done for a large number of reference buildings and retrofitting packages and are calibrated to long-term policy targets regarding energy performance and CO2-emissions from the building stock. Then, individual building renovation roadmaps were developed (e.g. Germany), based on the design of the individual building renovations, previous experience and literature. Next, using the Building Performance Model, these individual renovation roadmap concepts were applied in order to calculate building’s new energy performance due to renovation measures. Finally, it was analysed to which extent these individual building renovation roadmaps measures are in line with the target achievement for the analysed country. The results showed that with annual individual renovation rates between 5 and 6%, an ambitious scenario to reach stronger energy demand reductions and increasing shares of renewables in the building stock for 2050 can be achieved.IBROAD - H2020 - Grant Agreement numbe

Are scenarios of energy demand in the building stock in line with Paris targets?

COP21 led to an agreed target of keeping the increase in global average temperature well below 2 °C compared to pre-industrial levels. Due to its high potential for decarbonisation, the building stock will have to contribute a reduction of at least 85–95% in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions until 2050. Policy-driven scenario analysis is, therefore, important for assisting policy makers who are called upon to develop a corresponding framework to achieve those targets. The research questions of this paper are (1) Do long-term scenarios (in particular those labelled as ambitious) of energy demand in buildings reflect the COP21 target? (2) If not: What are reasons for the gap in terms of scenario assumptions, in particular, regarding the policy framework in the corresponding scenarios? The method builds on following steps: (1) analysis of GHG-emission reduction in scenarios from the policy-driven, bottom-up model Invert/EE-Lab; (2) compare scenarios among each other and analyse if they are in line with Paris targets; (3) discuss possible explanations for any gaps and the implications on future modelling work and policy making. Results show that scenarios labelled as being “ambitious” for several EU MSs achieve GHG-emission reductions of 56–96% until 2050. However, just 27% of these ambitious scenarios achieve reductions above 85%. The reason is that policies for most of the modelled scenarios were developed together with policy makers and stakeholders, who—for different reasons—were not willing to go beyond a certain stringency in the modelled instruments. In particular, this was the case for regulatory instruments, which show to be essential for achieving ambitious climate targets

Challenges and lessons learned in applying sensitivity analysis to building stock energy models

Uncertainty Analysis (UA) and Sensitivity Analysis (SA) offer essential tools to determine the limits of inference of a model and explore the factors which have the most effect on the model outputs. However, despite a wellestablished body of work applying UA and SA to models of individual buildings, a review of the literature relating to energy models for larger groups of buildings undertaken by Fennell et al. (2019) highlighted very limited application at larger scales. This contribution describes the efforts undertaken by a group of research teams in the context of IEA-EBC Annex 70 working with a diverse set of Building Stock Models (BSMs) to apply global sensitivity analysis methods and compare their results. Since BSMs are a class of model defined by their output and coverage rather than their structure and inputs, they represent a diverse set of modelling approaches. Key challenges for the application of SA are identified and explored, including the influence of model form, input data types and model outputs. This study combines results from 7 different modelling teams, each using different models across a range of urban areas to explore these challenges and begin the process of developing standardised workflows for SA of BSMs

A global comparison of building decarbonization scenarios by 2050 towards 1.5–2 °C targets

Buildings play a key role in the transition to a low-carbon-energy system and in achieving Paris Agreement climate targets. Analyzing potential scenarios for building decarbonization in different socioeconomic contexts is a crucial step to develop national and transnational roadmaps to achieve global emission reduction targets. This study integrates building stock energy models for 32 countries across four continents to create carbon emission mitigation reference scenarios and decarbonization scenarios by 2050, covering 60% of today’s global building emissions. These decarbonization pathways are compared to those from global models. Results demonstrate that reference scenarios are in all countries insufficient to achieve substantial decarbonization and lead, in some regions, to significant increases, i.e., China and South America. Decarbonization scenarios lead to substantial carbon reductions within the range projected in the 2 °C scenario but are still insufficient to achieve the decarbonization goals under the 1.5 °C scenario.publishedVersio

Energy transition pathways to a low-carbon Europe in 2050: the degree of cooperation and the level of decentralization

In the framework of the Paris Agreement, the European Union (EU) will have to firmly set decarbonization targets to 2050. However, the viability on these targets is an ongoing discussion. The European Commission has made several propositions for energy and climate "roadmaps". In this regard, this paper contributes by analyzing alternative pathways derived in a unique modelling process. As part of the SET-Nav project, we defined four pathways to a clean, secure and efficient energy system taking different routes. Two key uncertainties shape the SET-Nav pathways: the level of cooperation (i.e. cooperation versus entrenchment) and the level of decentralization (i.e. decentralization versus path dependency). All four pathways achieve an 85-95% emissions reduction by 2050. We include a broad portfolio of options under distinct framework conditions by comprehensively analyzing all energy-consuming and energy-providing sectors as well as the general economic conditions. We do this by applying a unique suite of linked models developed in the SET-Nav project. By linking more than ten models, we overcome the traditional limitation of models that cover one single sector while at the same time having access to detail sectoral data and expertise. In this paper, we focus on the implications for the energy demand sectors (buildings, transport, and industry) and the electricity supply mix in Europe and compare our insights of the electricity sector to the scenarios of the recent European Commission (2018a) report "A clean Planet for all"

A global comparison of building decarbonization scenarios by 2050 towards 1.5-2 °C targets.

Buildings play a key role in the transition to a low-carbon-energy system and in achieving Paris Agreement climate targets. Analyzing potential scenarios for building decarbonization in different socioeconomic contexts is a crucial step to develop national and transnational roadmaps to achieve global emission reduction targets. This study integrates building stock energy models for 32 countries across four continents to create carbon emission mitigation reference scenarios and decarbonization scenarios by 2050, covering 60% of today's global building emissions. These decarbonization pathways are compared to those from global models. Results demonstrate that reference scenarios are in all countries insufficient to achieve substantial decarbonization and lead, in some regions, to significant increases, i.e., China and South America. Decarbonization scenarios lead to substantial carbon reductions within the range projected in the 2 °C scenario but are still insufficient to achieve the decarbonization goals under the 1.5 °C scenario