Ozone concentrations and damage for realistic future European climate and air quality scenarios

Ground level ozone poses a significant threat to human health from air pollution in the European Union. While anthropogenic emissions of precursor substances (NOx, NMVOC, CH4) are regulated by EU air quality legislation and will decrease further in the future, the emissions of biogenic NMVOC (mainly isoprene) may increase significantly in the coming decades if short-rotation coppice plantations are expanded strongly to meet the increased biofuel demand resulting from the EU decarbonisation targets. This study investigates the competing effects of anticipated trends in land use change, anthropogenic ozone precursor emissions and climate change on European ground level ozone concentrations and related health and environmental impacts until 2050. The work is based on a consistent set of energy consumption scenarios that underlie current EU climate and air quality policy proposals: a current legislation case, and an ambitious decarbonisation case. The Greenhouse Gas-Air Pollution Interactions and Synergies (GAINS) integrated assessment model was used to calculate air pollutant emissions for these scenarios, while land use change because of bioenergy demand was calculated by the Global Biosphere Model (GLOBIOM). These datasets were fed into the chemistry transport model LOTOS-EUROS to calculate the impact on ground level ozone concentrations. Health damage because of high ground level ozone concentrations is projected to decline significantly towards 2030 and 2050 under current climate conditions for both energy scenarios. Damage to plants is also expected to decrease but to a smaller extent. The projected change in anthropogenic ozone precursor emissions is found to have a larger impact on ozone damage than land use change. The increasing effect of a warming climate (+2–5 °C across Europe in summer) on ozone concentrations and associated health damage, however, might be higher than the reduction achieved by cutting back European ozone precursor emissions. Global action to reduce air pollutant emissions is needed to make sure that ozone damage in Europe decreases towards the middle of this century

ClimWood2030, Climate benefits of material substitution by forest biomass and harvested wood products: Perspective 2030 - Final Report

The ClimWood2030 study, commissioned by DG CLIMA of the European Commission, quantifies the five ways in which the EU forest sector contributes to climate change mitigation: carbon sequestration and storage in EU forests, carbon storage in harvested wood products in the EU, substitution of wood products for functionally equivalent materials and substitution of wood for other sources of energy, and displacement of emissions from forests outside the EU. It also explores through scenario analysis, based on a series of interlocking models (GLOBIOM, G4M and WoodCarbonMonitor), along with detailed analysis of Forest Based Functional Units, based on life cycle assessment (LCA), the consequences for GHG balances of policy choices at present under consideration. The focus is on the EU-28, but GHG balances for other parts of the world are also considered, notably to assess consequences of EU policy choices for other regions. The five scenarios are (I) The ClimWood2030 reference scenario, (II) Increase carbon stock in existing EU forests, (III) Cascade use – increase recovery of solid wood products, (IV) Cascade use – prevent first use of biomass for energy and (V) Strongly increase material wood use. The study presents detailed scenario results for key parameters, the policy instruments linked to the scenarios, and main conclusions

Modeling stand-level mortality based on maximum stem number and seasonal temperature

Mortality is a key process in forest stand dynamics. However, tree mortality is not well understood, particularly in relation to climatic factors. The objectives of this study were to: (i) determine the patterns of maximum stem number per ha (MSN) over dominant tree height from 5-year remeasurements of the permanent sample plots for temperate forests [Red pine (Pinus densiflora), Japanese larch (Larix kaempferi), Korean pine (Pinus koraiensis), Chinese cork oak (Quercus variabilis), and Mongolian oak (Quercus mongolica)] using Sterba’s theory and Korean National Forest Inventory (NFI) data, (ii) develop a stand-level mortality (self-thinning) model using the MSN curve, and (iii) assess the impact of temperature on tree mortality in semi-variogram and linear regression models. The MSN curve represents the upper boundary of observed stem numbers per ha. The developed mortality model with our results showed a high degree of reliability (R2 = 0.55–0.81) and no obvious dependencies or patterns in residuals. However, spatial autocorrelation was detected from residuals of coniferous species (Red pine, Japanese larch and Korean pine), but not for oak species (Chinese cork oak and Mongolian oak). Based on the linear regression analysis of residuals, we found that the mortality of coniferous forests tended to increase with the rising seasonal temperature. This is more evident during winter and spring months. Conversely, oak mortality did not significantly vary with increasing temperature. These findings indicate that enhanced tree mortality due to rising temperatures in response to climate change is possible, especially in coniferous forests, and is expected to contribute to forest management decisions

Mutation screening of patients with Alzheimer disease identifies APP locus duplication in a Swedish patient

BACKGROUND: Missense mutations in three different genes encoding amyloid-β precursor protein, presenilin 1 and presenilin 2 are recognized to cause familial early-onset Alzheimer disease. Also duplications of the amyloid precursor protein gene have been shown to cause the disease. At the Dept. of Geriatric Medicine, Karolinska University Hospital, Sweden, patients are referred for mutation screening for the identification of nucleotide variations and for determining copy-number of the APP locus. METHODS: We combined the method of microsatellite marker genotyping with a quantitative real-time PCR analysis to detect duplications in patients with Alzheimer disease. RESULTS: In 22 DNA samples from individuals diagnosed with clinical Alzheimer disease, we identified one patient carrying a duplication on chromosome 21 which included the APP locus. Further mapping of the chromosomal region by array-comparative genome hybridization showed that the duplication spanned a maximal region of 1.09 Mb. CONCLUSIONS: This is the first report of an APP duplication in a Swedish Alzheimer patient and describes the use of quantitative real-time PCR as a tool for determining copy-number of the APP locus

The land use change impact of biofuels consumed in the EU: Quantification of area and greenhouse gas impacts

Biofuels are promoted as an option to reduce climate emissions from the transport sector. As most biofuels are currently produced from land based crops, there is a concern that the increased consumption of biofuels requires agricultural expansion at a global scale, leading to additional carbon emissions. This effect is called Indirect Land Use Change, or ILUC. The EU Renewable Energy Directive (2009/28/EC) directed the European Commission to develop a methodology to account for the ILUC effect. The current study serves to provide new insights to the European Commission and other stakeholders about these indirect carbon and land impacts from biofuels consumed in the EU, with more details on production processes and representation of individual feedstocks than was done before. ILUC cannot be observed or measured in reality, because it is entangled with a large number of other changes in agricultural markets at both global and local levels. The effect can only be estimated through the use of models. The current study is part of a continuous effort to improve the understanding and representation of ILUC

Tracking climate mitigation efforts in 30 major emitters: Economy-wide projections and progress on key sectoral policies

Reducing global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions to zero is a crucial step to minimise the worst effects of climate change. The growing political consensus on the dangers of climate change and the increasing number of climate policies implemented is a sign for cautious optimism. Countries increasingly recognise the need to achieve net zero emissions globally by mid-century but still need to implement near-term policy actions and measures to ensure this long-term ambition trigger the transformation necessary to meet the collective goals of the Paris Agreement. This report documents near-term climate policies and measures adopted in the 30 major economies and assesses resulting future GHG emissions trajectories up to 2030. The countries analysed jointly account for 80% of total GHG emissions in 2019. Emissions trends remain far from the goals of the Paris Agreement in the period post-2020. Global emissions should fall 7.6% each year up until 2030 to get on track to meet the goals of the Paris Agreement (UNEP, 2019). Our projections show that emissions reductions under current policies remain woefully insufficient. Emissions in the 30 economies as a group are projected to increase on average by approximately 0.4% per year between 2021 and 2030

Preinfection chemotactic response of blood polymorphonuclear leukocytes to predict severity of Escherichia-coli mastitis.

Experimental mastitis was induced by inoculating rear right quarters of 10 healthy cows with 10(3) cfu of Escherichia coli. The chemotactic responses of peripheral blood polymorphonuclear leukocytes at d -6, -5, -2, -1, and immediately prior to inoculation were measured. Chemiluminescence of polymorphonuclear leukocytes was measured immediately prior to inoculation. Severity of the experimental mastitis was assessed by bacterial growth in the inoculated quarters. Results of this study indicated that severity of the experimental mastitis may be predicted by the chemotactic response in vitro of polymorphonuclear leukocytes isolated from the peripheral blood at d 2, d 1, and immediately prior to inoculation. The number of circulating polymorphonuclear leukocytes immediately prior to inoculation also showed a negative relationship with the severity of mastitis. No relationship existed between preinfection chemiluminescence of polymorphonuclear leukocytes and the severity of the experimental mastitis. Preinfection chemotactic response of polymorphonuclear leukocytes and preinfection numbers of circulating polymorphonuclear leukocytes appeared to be valuable as predictors of severity of experimental E. coli mastitis in cows