Identification of climate policy knowledge needs: a stakeholders consultation approach

Purpose - The purpose of this paper is to identify knowledge gaps on insinuations of possible directions of European Union (EU) and international climate policies. Design/methodology/approach - This study has used participatory approach of highly experienced stakeholders’ engagement, involved directly or indirectly in the process of policymaking. A range of priority issues has been initially identified through desk analysis and key stakeholders have been selected and invited to partake in the process. Preliminary results have been validated through interaction with stakeholders during a series of workshops. Findings - The results show the identification of a series of sectors, where climate policy is expected to focus in the future and the definition of 11 specific topics upon which knowledge gaps are expected to appear. Results on the identified knowledge needs are analysed and categorized by each prioritized main topic and compared with literature findings. Emphasis is identified to be placed on the topics of renewable energy, EU climate policy and international climate negotiations, which are the most popular ones, followed by energy policy and energy efficiency. Originality/value - A key element of the approach is the consideration of key experts’ feedback on their specific area of expertise, instead of general public engagement, therefore leading to accurate results. Despite the fact that our approach was applied to a specific problem, the overall analysis could provide a framework for supporting applications in various problems in the field of priorities’ identification and even expanding to decision-making problems

AC-feasible Local Flexibility Market with Continuous Trading

This paper proposes a novel continuous Local Flexibility Market where active power flexibility located in the distribution system can be traded. The market design engages the Market Operator, the Distribution System Operator and Market Participants with dispatchable assets. The proposed market operates in a single distribution system and considers network constraints via AC network sensitivities, calculated at an initial network operating point. Trading is possible when AC network constraints are respected and when anticipated network violations are alleviated or resolved. The implementation allows for partial bid matching and is computationally light, therefore, suitable for continuous trading applications. The proposed design is thoroughly described and is demonstrated in a test distribution system. It is shown that active power trading in the proposed market design can lead to resolution of line overloads.Comment: In proceedings of the 11th Bulk Power Systems Dynamics and Control Symposium (IREP 2022), July 25-30, 2022, Banff, Canad

A multiple-uncertainty analysis framework for integrated assessment modelling of several sustainable development goals

This research introduces a two-level integration of climate-economy modelling and portfolio analysis, to simulate technological subsidisation with implications for multiple Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), across socioeconomic trajectories and considering different levels of uncertainties. We use integrated assessment modelling outputs relevant for progress across three SDGs namely air pollution-related mortality (SDG3), access to clean energy (SDG7) and greenhouse gas emissions (SDG13) calculated with the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM) for different subsidy levels for six sustainable technologies, across three Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs), feeding them into a portfolio analysis model. Optimal portfolios that are robust in the individual socioeconomic scenarios as well as across the socioeconomic scenarios are identified, by means of an SSP-robustness score. A second link between the two models is established, by feeding portfolio analysis results back into GCAM. Application in a case study for Eastern Africa confirms that most SSP-robust portfolios show smaller output ranges among scenarios

Identifying optimal technological portfolios for European power generation towards climate change mitigation: A robust portfolio analysis approach

Here, an integrative approach is proposed to link integrated assessment modelling results from the GCAM model with a novel portfolio analysis framework. This framework comprises a bi-objective optimisation model, Monte Carlo analysis and the Iterative Trichotomic Approach, aimed at carrying out stochastic uncertainty assessment and enhancing robustness. The approach is applied for identifying optimal technological portfolios for power generation in the EU towards climate change mitigation until 2050. The considered technologies include photovoltaics, concentrated solar power, wind, nuclear, biomass and carbon capture and storage, for which different subsidy curves for emissions reduction and energy security are considered. © 2019 Elsevier LtdThe most important part of this research is based on the H2020 European Commission Project “Transitions pathways and risk analysis for climate change mitigation and adaptation strategies—TRANSrisk” under grant agreement No. 642260

Integrated policy assessment and optimisation over multiple sustainable development goals in Eastern Africa

Heavy reliance on traditional biomass for household energy in eastern Africa has significant negative health and environmental impacts. The African context for energy access is rather different from historical experiences elsewhere as challenges in achieving energy access have coincided with major climate ambitions. Policies focusing on household energy needs in eastern Africa contribute to at least three sustainable development goals (SDGs): climate action, good health, and improved energy access. This study uses an integrated assessment model to simulate the impact of land policies and technology subsidies, as well as the interaction of both, on greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, exposure to air pollution and energy access in eastern Africa under a range of socioeconomic pathways. We find that land policies focusing on increasing the sustainable output of biomass resources can reduce GHG emissions in the region by about 10%, but also slightly delay progress in health and energy access goals. An optimised portfolio of energy technology subsidies consistent with a global Green Climate Funds budget of 30-35 billion dollar, can yield another 10% savings in GHG emissions, while decreasing mortality related to air pollution by 20%, and improving energy access by up to 15%. After 2030, both land and technology policies become less effective, and more dependent on the overall development path of the region. The analysis shows that support for biogas technology should be prioritised in both the short and long term, while financing liquefied petroleum gas and ethanol technologies also has synergetic climate, health and energy access benefits. Instead, financing PV technologies is mostly relevant for improving energy access, while charcoal and to a lesser extend fuelwood technologies are relevant for curbing GHG emissions if their finance is linked to land policies. We suggest that integrated policy analysis is needed in the African context for simultaneously reaching progress in multiple SDGs.The authors thank Francesco Dalla Longa for his comments, and Brennan Bowman and Sebastien Huclin for their help with regard to data and methodology. This research is supported by the European Union's Horizon 2020 research and innovation program under Grant Agreements No. 642260 (TRANSrisk project) and No. 820846 (Paris Reinforce), and by the Spanish Ministry of Economy and Competitiveness MINECO through BC3 Maria de Maeztu excellence accreditation MDM-2017-0714. Dirk-Jan van de Ven and Jon Sampedro acknowledge financial support from the Ministry of the Economy and Competitiveness of Spain (ECO2015-68023). Jon Sampedro also acknowledges financial support from the Basque Government (PRE_2018_2_0076). Sha Yu was supported by the Global Technology Strategy Project (GTSP). The views and opinions expressed in this paper are those of the authors alone

Multiobjective optimization of climate strategies under uncertainty

Climate change and the objectives set by international climate change conferences on global climate action require the development and implementation of a range of climate strategies, which in turn imply the appropriate adaptation of human activities and are assessed not only in terms of their effectiveness in addressing climate change, but also in terms of their (positive or negative) economic and social impact on a national and global scale. At the same time, in the climate policy-making effort, rapid geopolitical, social, technological, and scientific developments significantly increase the complexity of decision-making, exerting increased uncertainties in the process of evaluating the different parameters in framing policy recommendations, and creating the need to assess related risks and uncertainties in order to make viable and robust decisions. Το address the above challenges, this dissertation develops an integrated framework for multi - objective optimization of climate strategies under uncertainty, which allows for the engagement of stakeholders both in terms of identifying and evaluating risks and in selecting the optimal out of a set of robust suboptimal solutions. Starting from the presentation of the basic concepts and methods of multi - objective optimization, the family of ε - constraint methods and in particular Augmecon methods are selected as the basis for the development of an improved multi - objective linear programming algorithm, which generates the exact set of optimal solutions and allows the efficient and timely solution of hard or practically impossible, in terms of time and processing requirements, problems of numerous objective functions. Due to the reduced solution times of the new algorithm, it becomes possible to iteratively solve them in order to evaluate the robustness of the solutions through stochastic simulations. The improved multi-objective programming algorithm is then integrated as part of a complete tool for solving problems of selecting optimal portfolios of climate strategies under uncertainty, which enables decision makers to easily manipulate the inputs of the problem, as well as analyze the outputs with and without uncertainty, ensuring data transparency and robustness of results.The value of the proposed multi - objective optimization methodology is enhanced by its integration with widely used tools for climate policy making, such as climate-economy modelling and multi-criteria analysis, as well as by the proposal and application of three uncertainty management frameworks within three critical, real-world energy and climate policy problems that are differentiated in terms of: the geographical levels of analysis (local, national, regional), the examined time horizon (short- and medium-term analysis), the number and nature of objectives to be optimized (optimization based on energy savings targets, cost-effectiveness, related risk, optimization criteria connected to sustainable development goals related to health, climate action and access to clean, modern energy and social criteria, like job creation), and finally the uncertainty integration framework (risk integration within the evaluation, stochastic uncertainty, simulation of uncertainty in the form of different socio-economic scenarios combined with stochastic analysis to propose a new scenario between different socio-economic paths, stochastic simulation and analysis between the modelling results of three climate-economy models).Η κλιματική αλλαγή και οι στόχοι που τίθενται από τις διεθνείς περιβαλλοντικές συσκέψεις σχετικά με την αντιμετώπισή της απαιτούν την ανάπτυξη και εφαρμογή μιας σειράς κλιματικών στρατηγικών οι οποίες προϋποθέτουν την κατάλληλη προσαρμογή των ανθρώπινων δραστηριοτήτων και αξιολογούνται όχι μόνο ως προς την αποτελεσματικότητά τους ως προς τη μείωση των επιπέδων των εκπεμπόμενων αερίων του θερμοκηπίου, αλλά και ως προς τις επιπτώσεις τους (θετικές ή αρνητικές) στην οικονομία και τις κοινωνικές δραστηριότητες σε εθνική και παγκόσμια κλίμακα. Παράλληλα, στην προσπάθεια χάραξης κλιματικής πολιτικής, οι ραγδαίες γεωπολιτικές, κοινωνικές, τεχνολογικές και επιστημονικές εξελίξεις αυξάνουν σε σημαντικό βαθμό την πολυπλοκότητα της λήψης απόφασης, ασκώντας σημαντική επιρροή στην αυξανόμενη αβεβαιότητα κατά τη διάρκεια της διαδικασίας αξιολόγησης των διαφορετικών παραμέτρων συστάσεων πολιτικών και δημιουργώντας την ανάγκη διαχείρισης του κινδύνου και της αβεβαιότητας προκειμένου να ληφθούν βιώσιμες και εύρωστες αποφάσεις. Στην προσπάθεια αντιμετώπισης των παραπάνω προκλήσεων, η παρούσα διατριβή αναπτύσσει ένα ολοκληρωμένο πλαίσιο πολυστοχικής αξιολόγησης κλιματικών στρατηγικών υπό αβεβαιότητα, το οποίο επιτρέπει τη συμμετοχική εμπλοκή των εμπειρογνωμόνων τόσο ως προς τη διαχείριση του κινδύνου, όσο και στην επιλογή της βέλτιστης εκ ενός συνόλου ευσταθών υποβέλτιστων λύσεων. Ξεκινώντας από την παρουσίαση των βασικών εννοιών και μεθόδων πολυστοχικής βελτιστοποίησης, επιλέγεται η κατηγορία των μεθόδων των περιορισμών και συγκεκριμένα η οικογένεια των μεθόδων Augmecon ως βάση για την ανάπτυξη ενός βελτιωμένου αλγορίθμου πολυστοχικού γραμμικού προγραμματισμού, ο οποίος επιτυγχάνει την παραγωγή του ακριβούς συνόλου των βέλτιστων λύσεων και επιτρέπει την αποτελεσματική επίλυση προβλημάτων με πολλά κριτήρια βελτιστοποίησης, και συγκεκριμένα στις περιπτώσεις μεγάλων προβλημάτων, δηλαδή σε προβλήματα όπου το εύρος των προς βελτιστοποίηση συναρτήσεων είναι μεγάλο. Λόγω της επίτευξης της αποτελεσματικής επίλυσης τέτοιων προβλημάτων εντός περιορισμένου χρόνου, καθίσταται δυνατή η επαναληπτική επίλυση με σκοπό την αξιολόγηση της ευρωστίας των λύσεων μέσω στοχαστικών προσομοιώσεων. Ο βελτιωμένος αλγόριθμος πολυστοχικού προγραμματισμού ενσωματώνεται στη συνέχεια ως μέρος ενός ολοκληρωμένου εργαλείου επίλυσης προβλημάτων επιλογής βέλτιστων χαρτοφυλακίων κλιματικών στρατηγικών με ανάλυση αβεβαιότητας, με το οποίο καθίσταται εφικτός ο εύκολος χειρισμός των εισόδων του προβλήματος από τον εκάστοτε αποφασίζοντα, καθώς και η εποπτεία και ανάλυση των εξόδων με και χωρίς αβεβαιότητα, ώστε να διασφαλίζεται η διαφάνεια των δεδομένων και η ευρωστία των αποτελεσμάτων της επίλυσης. Η αξία της προτεινόμενης πολυστοχικής επίλυσης ενισχύεται με τη σύνδεσή της με ευρέως χρησιμοποιούμενα εργαλεία για την χάραξη κλιματικής πολιτικής, όπως η μοντελοποίηση κλίματος- οικονομίας και η πολυκριτήρια ανάλυση, καθώς και με την πρόταση και εφαρμογή τριών πλαισίων διαχείρισης αβεβαιότητας εντός τριών κρίσιμων, πραγματικών προβλημάτων ενεργειακής και κλιματικής πολιτικής τα οποία διαφοροποιούνται ως προς: τα γεωγραφικά επίπεδα της ανάλυσης (τοπικό, εθνικό, περιφερειακό επίπεδο), την έννοια του χρόνου (ανάλυση σε βραχυπρόθεσμο και μεσοπρόθεσμο ορίζοντα), τον αριθμό των προς βελτιστοποίηση κριτηρίων και τους παράγοντες με βάση τους οποίους αυτά επιλέγονται (βελτιστοποίηση με βάση στόχους εξοικονόμησης, σχέση κόστους αποδοτικότητας, εμπλεκόμενου κινδύνου, με κριτήρια σχετικά με τους στόχους βιώσιμης ανάπτυξης που αφορούν την υγεία, τη δράση για το κλίμα και την πρόσβαση σε καθαρή, σύγχρονής μορφής ενέργεια και με κοινωνικά κριτήρια - δημιουργίας νέων θέσεων εργασίας), και τέλος το πλαίσιο ενσωμάτωσης αβεβαιότητας (ενσωμάτωση της έννοιας του κινδύνου και στοχαστικής αβεβαιότητας και προσομοίωση αβεβαιότητας υπό τη μορφή διαφορετικών κοινωνικοοικονομικών σεναρίων σε συνδυασμό με στοχαστική ανάλυση για την πρόταση ενός νέου σεναρίου μεταξύ διαφορετικών κοινωνικοοικονομικών μονοπατιών, στοχαστική προσομοίωση και ανάλυση μεταξύ των αποτελεσμάτων μοντελοποίησης τριών μοντέλων κλίματος - οικονομίας)

Εφαρμογή Θεωρίας Χαρτοφυλακίου σε Θέματα Κλιματικής Πολιτικής

Εθνικό Μετσόβιο Πολυτεχνείο--Μεταπτυχιακή Εργασία. Διεπιστημονικό-Διατμηματικό Πρόγραμμα Μεταπτυχιακών Σπουδών (Δ.Π.Μ.Σ.) “Τεχνο-Οικονομικά Συστήματα (ΜΒΑ)

Assessment of Demand Side Flexibility in European Electricity Markets: A Country Level Review

Power systems in many countries have recently undergone a significant transition towards renewable and carbon-free generation sources. Those sources pose new challenges to the grid operation due to their intermittency and uncertainty. Consequently, advanced policy strategies and technologies offering new flexibility solutions on the inelastic demand side are required to maintain the reliability of power systems. Given the diversity of situations, legislation and needs across European countries and the varying nature of distribution system operators, this article reviews the deployment of demand side flexibility at national level to identify best practices and main barriers. The analysis concerns European countries of different progress in solutions that leverage flexibility towards offering electricity grid services. The scope is to explore the operation principles of European electricity markets, to assess the participation of emerging flexible resources, and to propose new approaches that facilitate the integration of flexible assets in the distribution grid. The countries reviewed are the United Kingdom, Belgium, Italy and Greece. These countries were selected owing to their diversity in terms of generation mix and market design. Barriers for market access of flexibility resources are also identified in order to form relevant country-specific recommendations