Journalism as a social science: how data makes a difference (guest Blog)

A telephone rings in a crowded newsroom, and journalists hit the ground running, chasing down the story, reaching out to sources, snatching up facts as the final-copy deadline looms. For decades, that was the archetypal image of a newsroom, but not anymore. At least not according to Simon Rogers, a Guardian news editor who focuses primarily on their Datablog. (This article is by Polis Summer School student Veronica Foreman

Satellite Constellation Cost Modeling: An Aggregate Model

Satellite constellations and Distributed Spacecraft Mission (DSM) architectures offer unique benefits to Earth observation scientists and unique challenges to cost estimators. The Cost and Risk (CR) module of the Tradespace Analysis Tool for Constellations (TAT-C) being developed by NASA Goddard seeks to address some of these challenges by providing a new approach to cost modeling, which aggregates existing Cost Estimating Relationships (CER) from respected sources, cost estimating best practices, and data from existing and proposed satellite designs. Cost estimation through this tool is approached from two perspectives: parametric cost estimating relationships and analogous cost estimation techniques. The dual approach utilized within the TAT-C CR module is intended to address prevailing concerns regarding early design stage cost estimates, and offer increased transparency and fidelity by offering two preliminary perspectives on mission cost. This work outlines the existing cost model, details assumptions built into the model, and explains what measures have been taken to address the particular challenges of constellation cost estimating. The risk estimation portion of the TAT-C CR module is still in development and will be presented in future work. The cost estimate produced by the CR module is not intended to be an exact mission valuation, but rather a comparative tool to assist in the exploration of the constellation design tradespace. Previous work has noted that estimating the cost of satellite constellations is difficult given that no comprehensive model for constellation cost estimation has yet been developed, and as such, quantitative assessment of multiple spacecraft missions has many remaining areas of uncertainty. By incorporating well-established CERs with preliminary approaches to approaching these uncertainties, the CR module offers more complete approach to constellation costing than has previously been available to mission architects or Earth scientists seeking to leverage the capabilities of multiple spacecraft working in support of a common goal

የከብቶች ድንች (Fodder Beet)

Software is assuming an increasing role in the aerospace industry, and by the same token it is also playing an increasing role in many recent incidents and accidents of both military and commercial vehicles. To better understand this role, we examine two case studies from the accident database of the Air Force Accident Investigation Board (AIB). We previously illustrated the limitations of the notion of “software failure” and developed, in its stead, the notion of software contribution to adverse events. We show here how specific operational scenarios, generally unconsidered during the software development and testing, trigger those contributions. We provide an analysis of the recurrent patterns of those mechanisms and preliminary recommendations for software development and testing. We also suggest ways to consolidate AIB reports\u27 findings and to be more mindful of the chain of causality in the accident sequences

Modularized Air-Launch with Virgin Orbit\u27s LauncherOne System: Responsive SmallSat Constellation Construction Measured in Hours, Not Months

As small satellites and the constellations they comprise have become increasingly prevalent, there has been greater interest in the value added by agile and responsive launch systems. Responsiveness, defined here as the ability of a launch vehicle to react quickly and positively to changing payload, customer, or situational constraints, is a capability that has largely been enabled by the rise of the smallsat launch industry and introduces a new set of considerations for smallsat mission stakeholders. This work examines the relative advantage of an air-launched small satellite launch vehicle network for rapid deployment of small satellite constellations, using Virgin Orbit’s LauncherOne system and three hypothetical constellation architectures. Using a combinatoric approach to analyze the possible launch manifests for hypothetical constellations, the impacts of geographic launch site positioning and launch vehicle recycle time on constellation injection time and thereby time-to-market for the constellation missions’ provided service are examined. It is demonstrated that the air launched architecture requires a third as many launch platforms at fewer activated spaceports than an equivalently performing fixed-site launch network, among other advantages. Gaps in the existing policy framework to support responsive launch as well as a plan for future work within this research area are then identified

Trade-Space Analysis Tool for Designing Constellations (TAT-C)

While there is growing interest in implementing future NASA Earth Science missions as Distributed Spacecraft Missions (DSMs), there are currently no tool to help in the design of DSMs. The objective of our project is to provide a framework that facilitates DSM Pre-Phase A investigations and optimizes DSM designs with respect to a-priori Science goals. Our Trade-space Analysis Tool for Constellations (TAT-C) allows to investigate questions such as: "Which type of constellations should be chosen? How many spacecraft should be included in the constellation? Which design has the best cost/risk value?" This paper provides a description of the TAT-C tool and its components

A Survey of Cost Estimating Methodologies for Distributed Spacecraft Missions

Satellite constellations and Distributed Spacecraft Mission (DSM) architectures offer unique benefits to Earth observation scientists and unique challenges to cost estimators. The Cost and Risk (CR) module of the Tradespace Analysis Tool for Constellations (TAT-C) being developed by NASA Goddard seeks to address some of these challenges by providing a new approach to cost modeling, which aggregates existing Cost Estimating Relationships (CER) from respected sources, cost estimating best practices, and data from existing and proposed satellite designs. Cost estimation through this tool is approached from two perspectives: parametric cost estimating relationships and analogous cost estimation techniques. The dual approach utilized within the TAT-C CR module is intended to address prevailing concerns regarding early design stage cost estimates, and offer increased transparency and fidelity by offering two preliminary perspectives on mission cost. This work outlines the existing cost model, details assumptions built into the model, and explains what measures have been taken to address the particular challenges of constellation cost estimating. The risk estimation portion of the TAT-C CR module is still in development and will be presented in future work. The cost estimate produced by the CR module is not intended to be an exact mission valuation, but rather a comparative tool to assist in the exploration of the constellation design tradespace. Previous work has noted that estimating the cost of satellite constellations is difficult given that no comprehensive model for constellation cost estimation has yet been developed, and as such, quantitative assessment of multiple spacecraft missions has many remaining areas of uncertainty. By incorporating well-established CERs with preliminary approaches to approaching these uncertainties, the CR module offers more complete approach to constellation costing than has previously been available to mission architects or Earth scientists seeking to leverage the capabilities of multiple spacecraft working in support of a common goal

End-to-End Trade-Space Analysis for Designing Constellation

Multipoint measurement missions can provide a significant advancement in science return and this science interest coupled with as many recent technological advances are driving a growing trend in exploring distributed architectures for future NASA missions. Distributed Spacecraft Missions (DSMs) leverage multiple spacecraft to achieve one or more common goals. In particular, a constellation is the most general form of DSM with two or more spacecraft placed into specific orbit(s) for the purpose of serving a common objective (e.g., CYGNSS). Because a DSM architectural trade-space includes both monolithic and distributed design variables, DSM optimization is a large and complex problem with multiple conflicting objectives. Over the last two years, our team has been developing a Trade-space Analysis Tool for Constellations (TAT-C), implemented in common programming languages for pre-Phase A constellation mission analysis. By evaluating alternative mission architectures, TAT-C seeks to minimize cost and maximize performance for pre-defined science goals. This presentation will describe the overall architecture of TAT-C including: a User Interface (UI) at several levels of details and user expertise; Trade-space Search Requests that are created from the Science requirements gathered by the UI and validated by a Knowledge Base; a Knowledge Base to compare the current requests to prior mission concepts to potentially prune the trade-space; a Trade-space Search Iterator which, with inputs from the Knowledge Base, and, in collaboration with the Orbit & Coverage, Reduction & Metrics, and Cost& Risk modules, generates multiple potential architectures and their associated characteristics. TAT-C leverages the use of the Goddard Mission Analysis Tool (GMAT) to compute coverage and ancillary data, modeling orbits to balance accuracy and performance. The current version includes uniform and non-uniform Walker constellations as well as Ad-Hoc and precessing constellations, and its cost model represents an aggregate model consisting of Cost Estimating Relationships (CERs) from widely accepted models. The current GUI automatically generates graphics representing metrics such as average revisit time or coverage as a function of cost. The end-to-end system will be demonstrated as part of the presentation

TAT-C: A Trade-Space Analysis Tool for Constellations

Under a changing technological and economic environment, there is growing interest in implementing future NASA Earth Science missions as Distributed Spacecraft Missions (DSM). The objective of our project is to provide a framework that facilitates DSM Pre-Phase A investigations and optimizes DSM designs with respect to a-priori Science goals. In this first version of our Trade-space Analysis Tool for Constellations (TAT-C), we are investigating questions such as: Which type of constellations should be chosen? How many spacecraft should be included in the constellation? Which design has the best costrisk value? This paper describes the overall architecture of TAT-C including: a User Interface (UI) interacting with multiple users - scientists, missions designers or program managers; an Executive Driver gathering requirements from UI and formulating Trade-space Search Requests for the Trade-space Search Iterator, which in collaboration with the Orbit Coverage, Reduction Metrics, and Cost Risk modules generates multiple potential architectures and their associated characteristics. UI will include Graphical, Command Line and Application Programmer Interfaces to respond to the demands of various levels of users expertise. Science inputs are grouped into various mission concepts, satellite specifications, and payload specifications, while science outputs are grouped into several types of metrics - spatial, temporal, angular and radiometric. Orbit Coverage leverages the use of the Goddard Mission Analysis Tool (GMAT) to compute coverage and ancillary data that are passed to Reduction Metrics. Then, for each architecture design, Cost Risk will provide estimates of the cost and life cycle cost as well as technical and cost risk of the proposed mission. Additionally, the Knowledge Base module is a centralized store of structured data readable by humans and machines. It will support both TAT-C analysis when composing new mission concepts from existing model inputs, and TAT-C exploration when discovering new mission concepts by querying previous results

Knowledge Base for Distributed Spacecraft Mission Design Using the Trade-Space Analysis Tool for Constellations (TAT-C)

Opportunities for multi-point measurements, greater revisit frequency, failure robustness, and improved cost effectiveness motivate consideration of Distributed Spacecraft Missions (DSMs) for future Earth science missions. However, careful analysis is required to assess the distributed sensing capabilities of a constellation compared to more mature monolithic spacecraft while also considering other important dimensions such as cost and risk. The large combinatorial DSM design space limits existing mission analysis tools and exploration methods which emphasize monolithic design variables. The Trade-space Analysis Tool for Constellations (TAT-C) under development at Goddard seeks to enumerate and evaluate alternative mission architectures to minimize cost and maximize scientific return for pre-defined goals during pre-phase A analysis.Similar to other model-centric engineering efforts, efficient data management is a significant challenge for DSM mission analysis. In TAT-C, a Knowledge Base (KB) is envisioned as a cumulative central repository of information and meta-information about DSMs. Initial KB concepts store related data for reuse within or across mission analyses; however, over time, the KB is envisioned to be an important layer to coordinate actions of both human analysts and automated design agents to search a large design space for desirable mission alternatives. Preliminary KB research builds on a modern web technology stack to provide the following functionality: 1) storage of trade-space search requests which set requirements and constraints for DSM concepts, 2) storage of analysis results which quantify performance metrics for evaluated DSM concepts, 3) a RESTful application programming interface (API) for scripted access to data from TAT-C modules, 4) web-based graphical user interface (GUI) for manual access to underlying data, and 5) access control and management restrictions relevant to data protection and security. These efforts have culminated in a prototype KB used by the research team during TAT-C development to assess opportunities for future work

Clinical, radiologic, pathologic, and molecular characteristics of long-term survivors of diffuse intrinsic pontine glioma (DIPG): a collaborative report from the International and European Society for Pediatric Oncology DIPG registries

Purpose Diffuse intrinsic pontine glioma (DIPG) is a brainstem malignancy with a median survival of < 1 year. The International and European Society for Pediatric Oncology DIPG Registries collaborated to compare clinical, radiologic, and histomolecular characteristics between short-term survivors (STSs) and long-term survivors (LTSs). Materials and Methods Data abstracted from registry databases included patients from North America, Australia, Germany, Austria, Switzerland, the Netherlands, Italy, France, the United Kingdom, and Croatia. Results Among 1,130 pediatric and young adults with radiographically confirmed DIPG, 122 (11%) were excluded. Of the 1,008 remaining patients, 101 (10%) were LTSs (survival ≥ 2 years). Median survival time was 11 months (interquartile range, 7.5 to 16 months), and 1-, 2-, 3-, 4-, and 5-year survival rates were 42.3% (95% CI, 38.1% to 44.1%), 9.6% (95% CI, 7.8% to 11.3%), 4.3% (95% CI, 3.2% to 5.8%), 3.2% (95% CI, 2.4% to 4.6%), and 2.2% (95% CI, 1.4% to 3.4%), respectively. LTSs, compared with STSs, more commonly presented at age < 3 or > 10 years (11% v 3% and 33% v 23%, respectively; P < .001) and with longer symptom duration ( P < .001). STSs, compared with LTSs, more commonly presented with cranial nerve palsy (83% v 73%, respectively; P = .008), ring enhancement (38% v 23%, respectively; P = .007), necrosis (42% v 26%, respectively; P = .009), and extrapontine extension (92% v 86%, respectively; P = .04). LTSs more commonly received systemic therapy at diagnosis (88% v 75% for STSs; P = .005). Biopsies and autopsies were performed in 299 patients (30%) and 77 patients (10%), respectively; 181 tumors (48%) were molecularly characterized. LTSs were more likely to harbor a HIST1H3B mutation (odds ratio, 1.28; 95% CI, 1.1 to 1.5; P = .002). Conclusion We report clinical, radiologic, and molecular factors that correlate with survival in children and young adults with DIPG, which are important for risk stratification in future clinical trials