The Core of the Participatory Budgeting Problem

In participatory budgeting, communities collectively decide on the allocation of public tax dollars for local public projects. In this work, we consider the question of fairly aggregating the preferences of community members to determine an allocation of funds to projects. This problem is different from standard fair resource allocation because of public goods: The allocated goods benefit all users simultaneously. Fairness is crucial in participatory decision making, since generating equitable outcomes is an important goal of these processes. We argue that the classic game theoretic notion of core captures fairness in the setting. To compute the core, we first develop a novel characterization of a public goods market equilibrium called the Lindahl equilibrium, which is always a core solution. We then provide the first (to our knowledge) polynomial time algorithm for computing such an equilibrium for a broad set of utility functions; our algorithm also generalizes (in a non-trivial way) the well-known concept of proportional fairness. We use our theoretical insights to perform experiments on real participatory budgeting voting data. We empirically show that the core can be efficiently computed for utility functions that naturally model our practical setting, and examine the relation of the core with the familiar welfare objective. Finally, we address concerns of incentives and mechanism design by developing a randomized approximately dominant-strategy truthful mechanism building on the exponential mechanism from differential privacy

The dynamics of technology diffusion and the impacts of climate policy instruments in the decarbonisation of the global electricity sector

This paper presents an analysis of climate policy instruments for the decarbonisation of the global electricity sector in a non-equilibrium economic and technology diffusion perspective. Energy markets are driven by innovation, path-dependent technology choices and diffusion. However, conventional optimisation models lack detail on these aspects and have limited ability to address the effectiveness of policy interventions because they do not represent decision-making. As a result, known effects of technology lock-ins are liable to be underestimated. In contrast, our approach places investor decision-making at the core of the analysis and investigates how it drives the diffusion of low-carbon technology in a highly disaggregated, hybrid, global macroeconometric model, FTT:Power-E3MG. Ten scenarios to 2050 of the electricity sector in 21 regions exploring combinations of electricity policy instruments are analysed, including their climate impacts. We show that in a diffusion and path-dependent perspective, the impact of combinations of policies does not correspond to the sum of impacts of individual instruments: synergies exist between policy tools. We argue that the carbon price required to break the current fossil technology lock-in can be much lower when combined with other policies, and that a 90% decarbonisation of the electricity sector by 2050 is affordable without early scrapping.This work was supported by the Three Guineas Trust (A. M. Foley), Cambridge Econometrics (H. Pollitt and U. Chewpreecha), Conicyt (Comisión Nacional de Investigación Científica y Tecnológica, Gobierno de Chile) and the Ministerio de Energía, Gobierno de Chile (P. Salas), the EU Seventh Framework Programme grant agreement No 265170 ‘ER-MITAGE’ (N. Edwards and P. Holden) and the UK Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council, fellowship number EP/K007254/1 (J.-F. Mercure).This is the final published version. It's also available from http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0301421514004017#

The Underestimation Of Egocentric Distance: Evidence From Frontal Matching Tasks

There is controversy over the existence, nature, and cause of error in egocentric distance judgments. One proposal is that the systematic biases often found in explicit judgments of egocentric distance along the ground may be related to recently observed biases in the perceived declination of gaze (Durgin & Li, Attention, Perception, & Psychophysics, in press), To measure perceived egocentric distance nonverbally, observers in a field were asked to position themselves so that their distance from one of two experimenters was equal to the frontal distance between the experimenters. Observers placed themselves too far away, consistent with egocentric distance underestimation. A similar experiment was conducted with vertical frontal extents. Both experiments were replicated in panoramic virtual reality. Perceived egocentric distance was quantitatively consistent with angular bias in perceived gaze declination (1.5 gain). Finally, an exocentric distance-matching task was contrasted with a variant of the egocentric matching task. The egocentric matching data approximate a constant compression of perceived egocentric distance with a power function exponent of nearly 1; exocentric matches had an exponent of about 0.67. The divergent pattern between egocentric and exocentric matches suggests that they depend on different visual cues

Macroeconomic impact of stranded fossil-fuel assets

Several major economies rely heavily on fossil-fuel production and exports, yet current low-carbon technology diffusion, energy efficiency and climate policy may be substantially reducing global demand for fossil fuels.1-4 This trend is inconsistent with observed investment in new fossil-fuel ventures1,2, which could become stranded as a result. Here we use an integrated global economy environment simulation model to study the macroeconomic impact of stranded fossil-fuel assets (SFFA). Our analysis suggests that part of the SFFA would occur as a result of an already ongoing technological trajectory, irrespective of whether new climate policies are adopted or not; the loss would be amplified if new climate policies to reach the 2°C target are adopted and/or if low-cost producers (some OPEC countries) maintain their level of production (‘sell-out’) despite declining demand; the magnitude of the loss from SFFA may amount to a discounted global wealth loss of $1-4tn; and there are clear distributional impacts, with winners (e.g. net importers such as China or the EU) and losers (e.g. Russia, the US or Canada, which could see their fossil-fuel industries nearly shut down), although the two effects would largely offset each other at the level of aggregate global GDP.The authors acknowledge C-EERNG and Cambridge Econometrics for support, and funding from EPSRC (JFM, fellowship no. EP/ K007254/1); the Newton Fund (JFM, PS, JV, EPSRC grant no EP/N002504/1 and ESRC grant no ES/N013174/1), NERC (NRE, PH, HP, grant no NE/P015093/1), CONICYT (PS), the Philomathia Foundation (JV), the Cambridge Humanities Research Grants Scheme (JV), and Horizon 2020 (HP, JFM; Sim4Nexus project)

Multi-epoch high-spectral-resolution observations of neutral sodium in 14 Type Ia supernovae

One of the main questions concerning Type Ia supernovae is the nature of the binary companion of the exploding white dwarf. A major discriminant between different suggested models is the presence and physical properties of circumstellar material at the time of explosion. If present, this material will be ionized by the ultraviolet radiation of the explosion and later recombine. This ionization-recombination should manifest itself as time-variable absorption features that can be detected via multi-epoch high-spectral-resolution observations. Previous studies have shown that the strongest effect is seen in the neutral sodium D lines. We report on observations of neutral sodium absorption features observed in multi-epoch high-resolution spectra of 14 Type Ia supernova events. This is the first multi-epoch high-resolution study to include multiple SNe. No variability in line strength that can be associated with circumstellar material is detected in the events presented in this paper. If we include previously published events, we find that ~18 per cent of the events in the extended sample exhibit time-variable sodium features associated with circumstellar material. We explore the implication of this study on our understanding of the progenitor systems of Type Ia supernovae via the current Type Ia supernova multi-epoch high-spectral-resolution sample

Extensive HST ultraviolet spectra and multiwavelength observations of SN 2014J in M82 indicate reddening and circumstellar scattering by typical dust

SN 2014J in M82 is the closest detected Type Ia supernova (SN Ia) in at least 28 yr and perhaps in 410 yr. Despite its small distance of 3.3 Mpc, SN 2014J is surprisingly faint, peaking at V = 10.6 mag, and assuming a typical SN Ia luminosity, we infer an observed visual extinction of AV = 2.0 ± 0.1 mag. But this picture, with RV = 1.6 ± 0.2, is too simple to account for all observations. We combine 10 epochs (spanning a month) of HST/Space Telescope Imaging Spectrograph (STIS) ultraviolet through near-infrared spectroscopy with HST/Wide Field Camera 3 (WFC3), Katzman Automatic Imaging Telescope, and FanCam photometry from the optical to the infrared and nine epochs of high-resolution TRES (Tillinghast Reflection Echelle Spectrograph) spectroscopy to investigate the sources of extinction and reddening for SN 2014J. We argue that the wide range of observed properties for SN 2014J is caused by a combination of dust reddening, likely originating in the interstellar medium of M82, and scattering off circumstellar material. For this model, roughly half of the extinction is caused by reddening from typical dust (E(B - V) = 0.45 mag and RV = 2.6) and roughly half by scattering off Large Magellanic Cloud-like dust in the circumstellar environment of SN 2014J

A randomised control trial of low glycaemic index carbohydrate diet versus no dietary intervention in the prevention of recurrence of macrosomia

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Maternal weight and maternal weight gain during pregnancy exert a significant influence on infant birth weight and the incidence of macrosomia. Fetal macrosomia is associated with an increase in both adverse obstetric and neonatal outcome, and also confers a future risk of childhood obesity. Studies have shown that a low glycaemic diet is associated with lower birth weights, however these studies have been small and not randomised <abbrgrp><abbr bid="B1">1</abbr><abbr bid="B2">2</abbr></abbrgrp>. Fetal macrosomia recurs in a second pregnancy in one third of women, and maternal weight influences this recurrence risk <abbrgrp><abbr bid="B3">3</abbr></abbrgrp>.</p> <p>Methods/Design</p> <p>We propose a randomised control trial of low glycaemic index carbohydrate diet vs. no dietary intervention in the prevention of recurrence of fetal macrosomia.</p> <p>Secundigravid women whose first baby was macrosomic, defined as a birth weight greater than 4000 g will be recruited at their first antenatal visit.</p> <p>Patients will be randomised into two arms, a control arm which will receive no dietary intervention and a diet arm which will be commenced on a low glycaemic index diet.</p> <p>The primary outcome measure will be the mean birth weight centiles and ponderal indices in each group.</p> <p>Discussion</p> <p>Altering the source of maternal dietary carbohydrate may prove to be valuable in the management of pregnancies where there has been a history of fetal macrosomia. Fetal macrosomia recurs in a second pregnancy in one third of women. This randomised control trial will investigate whether or not a low glycaemic index diet can affect this recurrence risk.</p> <p>Current Controlled Trials Registration Number</p> <p>ISRCTN54392969</p

Financial considerations in the conduct of multi-centre randomised controlled trials: evidence from a qualitative study.

National Coordinating Centre for Research Methodology; Medical Research Council, UK Department of Health; Chief Scientist OfficeNot peer reviewedPublisher PD

Physical and mental health comorbidity is common in people with multiple sclerosis: nationally representative cross-sectional population database analysis

&lt;b&gt;Background&lt;/b&gt; Comorbidity in Multiple Sclerosis (MS) is associated with worse health and higher mortality. This study aims to describe clinician recorded comorbidities in people with MS. &lt;p&gt;&lt;/p&gt; &lt;b&gt;Methods&lt;/b&gt; 39 comorbidities in 3826 people with MS aged ≥25 years were compared against 1,268,859 controls. Results were analysed by age, gender, and socioeconomic status, with unadjusted and adjusted Odds Ratios (ORs) calculated using logistic regression. &lt;p&gt;&lt;/p&gt; &lt;b&gt;Results&lt;/b&gt; People with MS were more likely to have one (OR 2.44; 95% CI 2.26-2.64), two (OR 1.49; 95% CI 1.38-1.62), three (OR 1.86; 95% CI 1.69-2.04), four or more (OR 1.61; 95% CI 1.47-1.77) non-MS chronic conditions than controls, and greater mental health comorbidity (OR 2.94; 95% CI 2.75-3.14), which increased as the number of physical comorbidities rose. Cardiovascular conditions, including atrial fibrillation (OR 0.49; 95% CI 0.36-0.67), chronic kidney disease (OR 0.51; 95% CI 0.40-0.65), heart failure (OR 0.62; 95% CI 0.45-0.85), coronary heart disease (OR 0.64; 95% CI 0.52-0.71), and hypertension (OR 0.65; 95% CI 0.59-0.72) were significantly less common in people with MS. &lt;p&gt;&lt;/p&gt; &lt;b&gt;Conclusion&lt;/b&gt; People with MS have excess multiple chronic conditions, with associated increased mental health comorbidity. The low recorded cardiovascular comorbidity warrants further investigation

Ras Conformational Switching: Simulating Nucleotide-Dependent Conformational Transitions with Accelerated Molecular Dynamics

Ras mediates signaling pathways controlling cell proliferation and development by cycling between GTP- and GDP-bound active and inactive conformational states. Understanding the complete reaction path of this conformational change and its intermediary structures is critical to understanding Ras signaling. We characterize nucleotide-dependent conformational transition using multiple-barrier-crossing accelerated molecular dynamics (aMD) simulations. These transitions, achieved for the first time for wild-type Ras, are impossible to observe with classical molecular dynamics (cMD) simulations due to the large energetic barrier between end states. Mapping the reaction path onto a conformer plot describing the distribution of the crystallographic structures enabled identification of highly populated intermediate structures. These structures have unique switch orientations (residues 25–40 and 57–75) intermediate between GTP and GDP states, or distinct loop3 (46–49), loop7 (105–110), and α5 C-terminus (159–166) conformations distal from the nucleotide-binding site. In addition, these barrier-crossing trajectories predict novel nucleotide-dependent correlated motions, including correlations of α2 (residues 66–74) with α3-loop7 (93–110), loop2 (26–37) with loop10 (145–151), and loop3 (46–49) with α5 (152–167). The interconversion between newly identified Ras conformations revealed by this study advances our mechanistic understanding of Ras function. In addition, the pattern of correlated motions provides new evidence for a dynamic linkage between the nucleotide-binding site and the membrane interacting C-terminus critical for the signaling function of Ras. Furthermore, normal mode analysis indicates that the dominant collective motion that occurs during nucleotide-dependent conformational exchange, and captured in aMD (but absent in cMD) simulations, is a low-frequency motion intrinsic to the structure