Real GDP: The Flawed Metric at the Heart of Macroeconomics

aggregation national accounting economic growth neoclassical economics quality change utilityThe study of economic growth is central to macroeconomics. More than anything else, macroeconomists are concerned with finding policies that encourage growth. And by ‘growth’, they mean the growth of real GDP. This measure has become so central to macroeconomics that few economists question its validity. Our intention here is to do just that. We argue that real GDP is a deeply flawed metric. It is presented as an objective measure of economic scale. But when we look under the surface, we find crippling subjectivity. Moreover, few economists seem to realize that real GDP is based on a non-existent quantum – utility. In light of these problems, it seems to us that much of macroeconomics needs to be rethought

Real GDP: The Flawed Metric at the Heart of Macroeconomics

aggregation national accounting economic growth neoclassical economics quality change utilityThe study of economic growth is central to macroeconomics. More than anything else, macroecon-omists are concerned with finding policies that encourage growth. And by ‘growth’, they mean the growth of real GDP. This measure has become so central to macroeconomics that few economists question its validity. Our intention here is to do just that. We argue that real GDP is a deeply flawed metric. It is presented as an objective measure of economic scale. But when we look under the surface, we find crippling subjectivity. Moreover, few economists seem to realize that real GDP is based on a non-existent quantum – utility. In light of these problems, it seems to us that much of macroeconomics needs to be rethought

RECOMBINANT ZOSTER VACCINE: UPTAKE AND SAFETY AMONG THE GENERAL POPULATION AND IMMUNOCOMPROMISED INDIVIDUALS

Herpes Zoster (HZ), also known as shingles, is a disease with cutaneous manifestations that results from the reactivation of the varicella zoster virus. The US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) recommended the two-dose recombinant zoster vaccine (RZV) for immunocompetent adults aged ≥50 years old for prevention of HZ and sequelae in 2018, but did not expand its recommendation to include immunocompromised adults until 2022. The objectives of this dissertation were to identify groups with lower rates of RZV vaccination and improve our understanding of RZV safety.Data from the IBM MarketScan® Commercial Claims and Encounters Database from 2017-2019 were used to identify vaccine-eligible adults, RZV vaccinations, and short- and long-term adverse events. Aim 1 characterized patterns of RZV initiation and completion by demographic, healthcare access, and clinical characteristics. Aim 2 evaluated short- and long-term safety using an age-adjusted self-controlled case series, with additional investigation of modification of safety by immune function. From 2018-2019 there were 572,544 RZV administrations. The cumulative incidence of RZV series initiation was 10.0%. Initiation rates increased with age and number of medical office visits, and were higher among women, urban residents, high-deductible insurance beneficiaries, and those who were immunocompromised compared to immunocompetent. Among immunocompromised adults, RZV initiation was highest among those with HIV and primary immunodeficiencies. Of those who initiated RZV, 89.5% received both doses. There were increased rates of both short- and long-term adverse events following RZV administration. Associations between RZV and short-term safety outcomes were attenuated among immunocompromised enrollees compared to immunocompetent enrollees; no differences by immune function were observed for long-term safety.RZV uptake was low and differed by demographic, healthcare access, and clinical characteristics. Initiation rates were higher among immunocompromised compared to immunocompetent adults, despite no CDC recommendation for these groups during the study period. While there were slightly increased rates of autoimmune events following vaccination, these events were uncommon. Associations between RZV administration and short- and long-term adverse events were no higher among immunocompromised enrollees compared to immunocompetent. These findings should inform efforts to increase vaccination and provide additional evidence regarding the safety of RZV for policymakers and clinicians.Doctor of Philosoph

The Capitalist Mode of Power: Second Speaker Series

capital accumulation capitalist mode of power economic growth General Electric hierarchy Hollywood public debtExisting theories of capitalism, mainstream as well as heterodox, view capitalism as a mode of production and consumption. This speaker series interrogates capitalism as a mode of power. The five presentations deal with the past, present and future of the CasP project (Bichler & Nitzan), the historical connection between economic growth and the formation of social hierarchy (Fix), the role of blockbuster cinema in reducing Hollywood's risk (McMahon), the external-internal power dynamics of the U.S. public debt (Hager), and General Electric’s staying power and what can be learned from it for the study of capital accumulation (Cochrane). The speaker series is organized by the Forum on Capital as Power and sponsored by the York Department of Political Science and Graduate Program in SPT. LOCATION: Verney Room, 674 South Ross, Keele Campus (open to all, with refreshments) DATES: October 20, 27; November 3, 10, 17, 2015 TIME: 3:00-5:00 P

A Bibliometric Analysis of an International Research Ethics Trainee Program

We used bibliometric analysis to evaluate the citations associated with publications by trainees in the Fogarty International Center’s International Research Ethics Education and Curriculum Development program. Papers published between 2004 and 2008 were identified for analysis. The outcome measures were total citations, h-index, and i-10. A total of 328 manuscripts were identified, with a yearly average of 66 publications and 363 citations. The median number of citations per paper is 3 (IQR Q1–Q3:6). 12.6% (n = 53) of papers were cited over 10 times and the h-index is 22, indicating that 22 papers had been cited at least 22 times. The data indicate that trainees have been productive and contributed to the scholarly literature. Future studies to benchmark this performance with other bioethics education programs are required to make interpretation of citation analysis more meaningful

Linking Emergency Medical Services and Emergency Department Data to Improve Overdose Surveillance in North Carolina

Introduction Linking emergency medical services (EMS) data to emergency department (ED) data enables assessing the continuum of care and evaluating patient outcomes. We developed novel methods to enhance linkage performance and analysis of EMS and ED data for opioid overdose surveillance in North Carolina. Methods We identified data on all EMS encounters in North Carolina during January 1–November 30, 2017, with documented naloxone administration and transportation to the ED. We linked these data with ED visit data in the North Carolina Disease Event Tracking and Epidemiologic Collection Tool. We manually reviewed a subset of data from 12 counties to create a gold standard that informed developing iterative linkage methods using demographic, time, and destination variables. We calculated the proportion of suspected opioid overdose EMS cases that received International Classification of Diseases, Tenth Revision, Clinical Modification diagnosis codes for opioid overdose in the ED. Results We identified 12 088 EMS encounters of patients treated with naloxone and transported to the ED. The 12-county subset included 1781 linkage-eligible EMS encounters, with historical linkage of 65.4% (1165 of 1781) and 1.6% false linkages. Through iterative linkage methods, performance improved to 91.0% (1620 of 1781) with 0.1% false linkages. Among statewide EMS encounters with naloxone administration, the linkage improved from 47.1% to 91.1%. We found diagnosis codes for opioid overdose in the ED among 27.2% of statewide linked records. Practice Implications Through an iterative linkage approach, EMS–ED data linkage performance improved greatly while reducing the number of false linkages. Improved EMS–ED data linkage quality can enhance surveillance activities, inform emergency response practices, and improve quality of care through evaluating initial patient presentations, field interventions, and ultimate diagnoses

Application of Al-Cu-W-Ta graded density impactors in dynamic ramp compression experiments

Graded density impactors (GDIs) are used to dynamically compress materials to extreme conditions. Two modifications to a previously developed Mg-Cu-W GDI are made in this work before using it in a dynamic compression experiment: Mg is replaced with Al and a Ta disk is glued to the back. The Mg phase is replaced by Al because FCC Al remains solid to higher pressure along its Hugoniot compared to Mg. The addition of the Ta disk creates a constant particle velocity regime and facilitates a definition of peak pressure states. Microstructure analysis, profilometry, and ultrasonic C-scans of the Al-Cu-W GDI all confirm excellent uniformity. We evaluated signal variation in the radial direction of a dynamically compressed Al-LiF bilayer target to evaluate the contribution of spatial nonuniformity to errors. Velocity traces from five photon Doppler velocimetry (PDV) probes located at different radial distances from the center of the target varied at most by 1.1% with a root mean square of 0.3% during the compression ramp, demonstrating low PDV measurement error over a relatively large experimental area. The experimental PDV data also agrees well with 1D simulations that use inputs from predictive characterization models developed for the material properties resulting from tape casting, laminating, and powder consolidation processes. Low measurement error during quasi-isentropic compression, leading to better precision, ensures a robust platform to reach extreme compression and low-temperature recovery states and facilitates discovery via synthesis, quenching, and preservation of new high-pressure phases

Application of Al-Cu-W-Ta graded density impactors in dynamic ramp compression experiments

Graded density impactors (GDIs) are used to dynamically compress materials to extreme conditions. Two modifications to a previously developed Mg-Cu-W GDI are made in this work before using it in a dynamic compression experiment: Mg is replaced with Al and a Ta disk is glued to the back. The Mg phase is replaced by Al because FCC Al remains solid to higher pressure along its Hugoniot compared to Mg. The addition of the Ta disk creates a constant particle velocity regime and facilitates a definition of peak pressure states. Microstructure analysis, profilometry, and ultrasonic C-scans of the Al-Cu-W GDI all confirm excellent uniformity. We evaluated signal variation in the radial direction of a dynamically compressed Al-LiF bilayer target to evaluate the contribution of spatial nonuniformity to errors. Velocity traces from five photon Doppler velocimetry (PDV) probes located at different radial distances from the center of the target varied at most by 1.1% with a root mean square of 0.3% during the compression ramp, demonstrating low PDV measurement error over a relatively large experimental area. The experimental PDV data also agrees well with 1D simulations that use inputs from predictive characterization models developed for the material properties resulting from tape casting, laminating, and powder consolidation processes. Low measurement error during quasi-isentropic compression, leading to better precision, ensures a robust platform to reach extreme compression and low-temperature recovery states and facilitates discovery via synthesis, quenching, and preservation of new high-pressure phases

Cancer incidence, mortality, years of life lost, years lived with disability, and disability-adjusted life years for 29 cancer groups from 2010 to 2019 a systematic analysis for the global burden of disease study 2019

IMPORTANCE The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2019 (GBD 2019) provided systematic estimates of incidence, morbidity, and mortality to inform local and international efforts toward reducing cancer burden. OBJECTIVE To estimate cancer burden and trends globally for 204 countries and territories and by Sociodemographic Index (SDI) quintiles from 2010 to 2019. EVIDENCE REVIEW The GBD 2019 estimation methods were used to describe cancer incidence, mortality, years lived with disability, years of life lost, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) in 2019 and over the past decade. Estimates are also provided by quintiles of the SDI, a composite measure of educational attainment, income per capita, and total fertility rate for those younger than 25 years. Estimates include 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs). FINDINGS In 2019, there were an estimated 23.6 million (95% UI, 22.2-24.9 million) new cancer cases (17.2 million when excluding nonmelanoma skin cancer) and 10.0 million (95% UI, 9.36-10.6 million) cancer deaths globally, with an estimated 250 million (235-264 million) DALYs due to cancer. Since 2010, these represented a 26.3% (95% UI, 20.3%-32.3%) increase in new cases, a 20.9% (95% UI, 14.2%-27.6%) increase in deaths, and a 16.0% (95% UI, 9.3%-22.8%) increase in DALYs. Among 22 groups of diseases and injuries in the GBD 2019 study, cancer was second only to cardiovascular diseases for the number of deaths, years of life lost, and DALYs globally in 2019. Cancer burden differed across SDI quintiles. The proportion of years lived with disability that contributed to DALYs increased with SDI, ranging from 1.4% (1.1%-1.8%) in the low SDI quintile to 5.7% (4.2%-7.1%) in the high SDI quintile. While the high SDI quintile had the highest number of new cases in 2019, the middle SDI quintile had the highest number of cancer deaths and DALYs. From 2010 to 2019, the largest percentage increase in the numbers of cases and deaths occurred in the low and low-middle SDI quintiles. CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE The results of this systematic analysis suggest that the global burden of cancer is substantial and growing, with burden differing by SDI. These results provide comprehensive and comparable estimates that can potentially inform efforts toward equitable cancer control around the world. © 2022 American Medical Association. All rights reserved. **Please note that there are multiple authors for this article therefore only the name of the first 30 including Federation University Australia affiliate “Muhammad Aziz Rahman" is provided in this record*

The SDSS-V Black Hole Mapper Reverberation Mapping Project: Unusual Broad-Line Variability in a Luminous Quasar

We present a high-cadence multi-epoch analysis of dramatic variability of three broad emission lines (MgII, H$\beta$, and H$\alpha$) in the spectra of the luminous quasar ($\lambda L_{\lambda}$(5100\r{A}) = $4.7 \times 10^{44}$ erg s$^{-1}$) SDSS J141041.25+531849.0 at $z = 0.359$ with 127 spectroscopic epochs over 9 years of monitoring (2013-2022). We observe anti-correlations between the broad emission-line widths and flux in all three emission lines, indicating that all three broad emission lines "breathe" in response to stochastic continuum variations. We also observe dramatic radial velocity shifts in all three broad emission lines, ranging from $\Delta{v}$ $\sim$400 km s$^{-1}$ to $\sim$800 km s$^{-1}$, that vary over the course of the monitoring period. Our preferred explanation for the broad-line variability is complex kinematics in the broad-line region gas. We suggest a model for the broad-line variability that includes a combination of gas inflow with a radial gradient, an azimuthal asymmetry (e.g., a hot spot), superimposed on the stochastic flux-driven changes to the optimal emission region ("line breathing"). Similar instances of line-profile variability due to complex gas kinematics around quasars are likely to represent an important source of false positives in radial velocity searches for binary black holes, which typically lack the kind of high-cadence data we analyze here. The long-duration, wide-field, and many-epoch spectroscopic monitoring of SDSS-V BHM-RM provides an excellent opportunity for identifying and characterizing broad emission-line variability, and the inferred nature of the inner gas environment, of luminous quasars