Probabilistic analysis and comparison of stress-dependent rock physics models

A rock physics model attempts to account for the nonlinear stress dependence of seismic velocity by relating changes in stress and strain to changes in seismic velocity and anisotropy. Understanding and being able to model this relationship is crucial for any time-lapse geophysical or geohazard modelling scenario. In this study, we take a number of commonly used rock physics models and assess their behaviour and stability when applied to stress versus velocity measurements of a large (dry) core data set of different lithologies. We invert and calibrate each model and present a database of models for over 400 core samples. The results of which provide a useful tool for setting a priori parameter constraints for future model inversions. We observe that some models assume an increase in VP/VS ratio (hence Poisson’s ratio) with stress. A trait not seen for every sample in our data set. We demonstrate that most model parameters are well constrained. However, third-order elasticity models become ill-posed when their equations are simplified for an isotropic rock. We also find that third-order elasticity models are limited by their approximation of an exponential relationship via functions that lack an exponential term. We also argue that all models are difficult to parametrize without the availability of core data. Therefore, we derive simple relationships between model parameters, core porosity and clay content. We observe that these relationship are suitable for estimating seismic velocities of rock but poor when comes to predicting changes related to effective stress. The findings of this study emphasize the need for improvement to models if quantitatively accurate predictions of time-lapse velocity and anisotropy are to be made. Certain models appear to better fit velocity depth log data than velocity–stress core data. Thus, there is evidence to suggest a limitation in core data as a representation of the stress dependence of the subsurface. The differences in the stress dependence of the subsurface compared to that measured under laboratory conditions could potentially be significant. Although potentially difficult to investigate, its importance is of great significance if we wish to accurately interpret the stress dependence of subsurface seismic velocities

Enumerating Cyclic Orientations of a Graph

Acyclic and cyclic orientations of an undirected graph have been widely studied for their importance: an orientation is acyclic if it assigns a direction to each edge so as to obtain a directed acyclic graph (DAG) with the same vertex set; it is cyclic otherwise. As far as we know, only the enumeration of acyclic orientations has been addressed in the literature. In this paper, we pose the problem of efficiently enumerating all the \emph{cyclic} orientations of an undirected connected graph with $n$ vertices and $m$ edges, observing that it cannot be solved using algorithmic techniques previously employed for enumerating acyclic orientations.We show that the problem is of independent interest from both combinatorial and algorithmic points of view, and that each cyclic orientation can be listed with $\tilde{O}(m)$ delay time. Space usage is $O(m)$ with an additional setup cost of $O(n^2)$ time before the enumeration begins, or $O(mn)$ with a setup cost of $\tilde{O}(m)$ time

Do pediatric hospitalizations have a unique geography?

BACKGROUND: In the U.S. small-area health services research studies are often based on the hospital service areas (HSAs) defined by the Dartmouth Atlas of Healthcare project. These areas are based on the geographic origins of Medicare Part A hospital patients, the great majority of whom are seniors. It is reasonable to question whether the geographic system so defined is appropriate for health services research for all ages, particularly for children, who have a very different system of healthcare financing and provision in the U.S. METHODS: This article assesses the need for a unique system of HSAs to support pediatric small-area analyses. It is a cross-sectional analysis of California hospital discharges for two age groups – non-newborns 0–17 years old, and seniors. The measure of interest was index of localization, which is the percentage of HSA residents hospitalized in their home HSA. Indices were computed separately for each age group, and index agreement was assessed for 219 of the state's HSAs. We examined the effect of local pediatric inpatient volume and pediatric inpatient resources on the divergence of the age group indices. We also created a new system of HSAs based solely on pediatric patient origins, and visually compared maps of the traditional and the new system. RESULTS: The mean localization index for pediatric discharges was 20 percentage points lower than for Medicare cases, indicating a poorer fit of the traditional geographic system for children. The volume of pediatric cases did not appear to be associated with the magnitude of index divergence between the two age groups. Pediatric medical and surgical case subgroups gave very similar results, and both groups differed substantially from seniors. Location of children's hospitals and local pediatric bed supply were associated with Medicare-pediatric divergence. There was little visual correspondence between the maps of traditional and pediatric-specific HSAs. CONCLUSION: Children and seniors have significantly different geographic patterns of hospitalization in California. Medicare-based HSAs may not be appropriate for all age groups and service types throughout the U.S

Protecting eyewitness evidence: Examining the efficacy of a self-administered interview tool

Given the crucial role of eyewitness evidence, statements should be obtained as soon as possible after an incident. This is not always achieved due to demands on police resources. Two studies trace the development of a new tool, the Self-Administered Interview (SAI), designed to elicit a comprehensive initial statement. In Study 1, SAI participants reported more correct details than participants who provided a free recall account, and performed at the same level as participants given a Cognitive Interview. In Study 2, participants viewed a simulated crime and half recorded their statement using the SAI. After a delay of 1 week, all participants completed a free recall test. SAI participants recalled more correct details in the delayed recall task than control participants

Recognizing Members of the Tournament Equilibrium Set is NP-hard

A recurring theme in the mathematical social sciences is how to select the "most desirable" elements given a binary dominance relation on a set of alternatives. Schwartz's tournament equilibrium set (TEQ) ranks among the most intriguing, but also among the most enigmatic, tournament solutions that have been proposed so far in this context. Due to its unwieldy recursive definition, little is known about TEQ. In particular, its monotonicity remains an open problem up to date. Yet, if TEQ were to satisfy monotonicity, it would be a very attractive tournament solution concept refining both the Banks set and Dutta's minimal covering set. We show that the problem of deciding whether a given alternative is contained in TEQ is NP-hard.Comment: 9 pages, 3 figure

Supplier-induced demand for psychiatric admissions in Northern New England

The development of hospital service areas (HSAs) using small area analysis has been useful in examining variation in medical and surgical care; however, the techniques of small area analysis are underdeveloped in understanding psychiatric admission rates. We sought to develop these techniques in order to understand the relationship between psychiatric bed supply and admission rates in Northern New England. Our primary hypotheses were that there would be substantial variation in psychiatric admission across geographic settings and that bed availability would be positively correlated with admission rates, reflecting a supplier-induced demand phenomenon. Our secondary hypothesis was that the construction of psychiatric HSAs (PHSAs) would yield more meaningful results than the use of existing general medical hospital service areas

Preventive medication use among persons with limited life expectancy

Persons with limited life expectancy (LLE) – less than 1 year – are significant consumers of health care, are at increased risk of polypharmacy and adverse drug events, and have dynamic health statuses. Therefore, medication use among this population must be appropriate and regularly evaluated. The objective of this review is to assess the current state of knowledge and clinical practice presented in the literature regarding preventive medication use among persons with LLE. We searched Medline, Embase, and CINAHL using Medical Subject Headings. Broad searches were first conducted using the terms ‘terminal care or therapy’ or ‘advanced disease’ and ‘polypharmacy’ or ‘inappropriate medication’ or ‘preventive medicine’, followed by more specific searches using the terms ‘statins’ or ‘anti-hypertensives’ or ‘bisphosphonates’ or ‘laxatives’ and ‘terminal care’. Frameworks to assess appropriate versus inappropriate medications for persons with LLE, and the prevalence of potentially inappropriate medication use among this population, are presented. A considerable proportion of individuals with a known terminal condition continue to take chronic disease preventive medications until death despite questionable benefit. The addition of palliative preventive medications is advised. There is an indication that as death approaches the shift from a curative to palliative goal of care translates into a shift in medication use. This literature review is a first step towards improving medication use and decreasing polypharmacy in persons at the end of life. There is a need to develop consensus criteria to assess appropriate versus inappropriate medication use, specifically for individuals at the end of life

Simultaneous endovascular repair of an iatrogenic carotid-jugular fistula and a large iliocaval fistula presenting with multiorgan failure: a case report

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Introduction</p> <p>Iliocaval fistulas can complicate an iliac artery aneurysm. The clinical presentation is classically a triad of hypotension, a pulsatile mass and heart failure. In this instance, following presentation with multiorgan failure, management included the immediate use of an endovascular stent graft on discovery of the fistula.</p> <p>Case presentation</p> <p>A 62-year-old Caucasian man presented to our tertiary hospital for management of iatrogenic trauma due to the insertion of a central venous line into his right common carotid artery, causing transient ischemic attack. Our patient presented to a peripheral hospital with fever, nausea, vomiting, acute renal failure, acute hepatic dysfunction and congestive heart failure. A provisional diagnosis of sepsis of unknown origin was made. There was a 6.5 cm×6.5 cm right iliac artery aneurysm present on a non-contrast computed tomography scan. An unexpected intra-operative diagnosis of an iliocaval fistula was made following the successful angiographic removal of the central line to his right common carotid artery. Closure of the iliocaval fistula and repair of the iliac aneurysm using a three-piece endovascular aortic stent graft was then undertaken as part of the same procedure. This was an unexpected presentation of an iliocaval fistula.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>Our case demonstrates that endovascular repair of a large iliac artery aneurysm associated with a caval fistula is safe and effective and can be performed at the time of the diagnostic angiography. The presentation of an iliocaval fistula in this case was unusual which made the diagnosis difficult and unexpected at the time of surgery. The benefit of immediate repair, despite hemodynamic instability during anesthesia, is clear. Our patient had two coronary angiograms through his right femoral artery decades ago. Unusual iatrogenic causes of iliocaval fistulas secondary to previous coronary angiograms with wire and/or catheter manipulation should be considered in patients such as ours.</p

Language and theory of mind in autism spectrum disorder : the relationship between complement syntax and false belief task performance.

This study aimed to test the hypothesis that children with autism spectrum disorder (ASD) use their knowledge of complement syntax as a means of “hacking out” solutions to false belief tasks, despite lacking a representational theory of mind (ToM). Participants completed a “memory for complements” task, a measure of receptive vocabulary, and traditional location change and unexpected contents false belief tasks. Consistent with predictions, the correlation between complement syntax score and location change task performance was significantly stronger within the ASD group than within the comparison group. However, contrary to predictions, complement syntax score was not significantly correlated with unexpected contents task performance within either group. Possible explanations for this pattern of results are considered

A multimethod Global Sensitivity Analysis to aid the calibration of geomechanical models via time-lapse seismic data

Time-lapse seismic attributes are used extensively in the history matching of production simulator models. However, although proven to contain information regarding production induced stress change, it is typically only loosely (i.e. qualitatively) used to calibrate geomechanical models. In this study we conduct a multimethod Global Sensitivity Analysis (GSA) to assess the feasibility and aid the quantitative calibration of geomechanical models via near-offset time-lapse seismic data. Specifically, the calibration of mechanical properties of the overburden. Via the GSA, we analyse the near-offset overburden seismic traveltimes from over 4000 perturbations of a Finite Element (FE) geomechanical model of a typical High Pressure High Temperature (HPHT) reservoir in the North Sea. We find that, out of an initially large set of material properties, the near-offset overburden traveltimes are primarily affected by Young's modulus and the effective stress (i.e. Biot) coefficient. The unexpected significance of the Biot coefficient highlights the importance of modelling fluid flow and pore pressure outside of the reservoir. The FE model is complex and highly nonlinear. Multiple combinations of model parameters can yield equally possible model realizations. Consequently, numerical calibration via a large number of random model perturbations is unfeasible. However, the significant differences in traveltime results suggest that more sophisticated calibration methods could potentially be feasible for finding numerous suitable solutions. The results of the time-varying GSA demonstrate how acquiring multiple vintages of time-lapse seismic data can be advantageous. However, they also suggest that significant overburden near-offset seismic time-shifts, useful for model calibration, may take up to 3 yrs after the start of production to manifest. Due to the nonlinearity of the model behaviour, similar uncertainty in the reservoir mechanical properties appears to influence overburden traveltime to a much greater extent. Therefore, reservoir properties must be known to a suitable degree of accuracy before the calibration of the overburden can be considered