Inferring Population Preferences via Mixtures of Spatial Voting Models

Understanding political phenomena requires measuring the political preferences of society. We introduce a model based on mixtures of spatial voting models that infers the underlying distribution of political preferences of voters with only voting records of the population and political positions of candidates in an election. Beyond offering a cost-effective alternative to surveys, this method projects the political preferences of voters and candidates into a shared latent preference space. This projection allows us to directly compare the preferences of the two groups, which is desirable for political science but difficult with traditional survey methods. After validating the aggregated-level inferences of this model against results of related work and on simple prediction tasks, we apply the model to better understand the phenomenon of political polarization in the Texas, New York, and Ohio electorates. Taken at face value, inferences drawn from our model indicate that the electorates in these states may be less bimodal than the distribution of candidates, but that the electorates are comparatively more extreme in their variance. We conclude with a discussion of limitations of our method and potential future directions for research.Comment: To be published in the 8th International Conference on Social Informatics (SocInfo) 201

Long-term follow-up of Philadelphia chromosome-positive (Ph+) chronic myeloid leukaemia (CML) in children and adolescents managed at a single institution over a 20-year period

Chronic myeloid leukaemia (CML) is rare in childhood. In our Institution we managed 30 consecutive Ph+CML patients aged <18 years, according to our adults’ guidelines. Patients with HLA-identical related donor (RD) underwent stem cell transplant (SCT). Since 1989, patients without RD were systematically treated with -interferon (IFN) (median dosage: 6 MU/day). Of 18/19 evaluable patients, 17 (94.5%) achieved haematologic response (HR), 11/17 (65%) cytogenetic response (CyR), complete (CCyR) in 4 (23.5%). Three patients remain in CCyR, 2 achieved BCR-ABL transcript disappearance. Of 13 patients without CCyR, 5 underwent SCT, 4 switched to STI571, 4 progressed. All patients receiving STI571 in chronic phase (CP) obtained sustained CCyR and 3 a persistent molecular response. 8-year survival among IFN-treated patients, censored or not for subsequent therapies, is 62% and 63%. Overall, 13/30 patients underwent SCT: 5 HLA-identical-RD, 5 matched unrelated donor, 2 mismatched-RD, 1 unrelated mismatched umbilical cord blood. Eight allotransplanted patients (6/6 in 1st CP) are in cytogenetic and molecular remission with 8-year survival of 61% from SCT and 69% from diagnosis. In our 20-year experience, the use of IFN in children without matched RD led to prolonged cytogenetic and molecular responses and long-term survival, without impairing the outcome of subsequent SCT

How Polarized Have We Become? A Multimodal Classification of Trump Followers and Clinton Followers

Polarization in American politics has been extensively documented and analyzed for decades, and the phenomenon became all the more apparent during the 2016 presidential election, where Trump and Clinton depicted two radically different pictures of America. Inspired by this gaping polarization and the extensive utilization of Twitter during the 2016 presidential campaign, in this paper we take the first step in measuring polarization in social media and we attempt to predict individuals' Twitter following behavior through analyzing ones' everyday tweets, profile images and posted pictures. As such, we treat polarization as a classification problem and study to what extent Trump followers and Clinton followers on Twitter can be distinguished, which in turn serves as a metric of polarization in general. We apply LSTM to processing tweet features and we extract visual features using the VGG neural network. Integrating these two sets of features boosts the overall performance. We are able to achieve an accuracy of 69%, suggesting that the high degree of polarization recorded in the literature has started to manifest itself in social media as well.Comment: 16 pages, SocInfo 2017, 9th International Conference on Social Informatic

Downs, Stokes and the Dynamics of Electoral Choice

A six-wave 2005–09 national panel survey conducted in conjunction with the British Election Study provided data for an investigation of sources of stability and change in voters’ party preferences. The authors test competing spatial and valence theories of party choice and investigate the hypothesis that spatial calculations provide cues for making valence judgements. Analyses reveal that valence mechanisms – heuristics based on party leader images, party performance evaluations and mutable partisan attachments – outperform a spatial model in terms of strength of direct effects on party choice. However, spatial effects still have sizeable indirect effects on the vote via their influence on valence judgements. The results of exogeneity tests bolster claims about the flow of influence from spatial calculations to valence judgments to electoral choice.</jats:p

Budget Processes: Theory and Experimental Evidence

This paper studies budget processes, both theoretically and experimentally. We compare the outcomes of bottom-up and top-down budget processes. It is often presumed that a top-down budget process leads to a smaller overall budget than a bottom-up budget process. Ferejohn and Krehbiel (1987) showed theoretically that this need not be the case. We test experimentally the theoretical predictions of their work. The evidence from these experiments lends strong support to their theory, both at the aggregate and the individual subject level

Positive effects of a novel non-peptidyl low molecular weight radical scavenger in renal ischemia/reperfusion: a preliminary report

Ischemia/reperfusion (I/R) is one of the most common causes of acute kidney injury. Reactive oxygen species have been recognized to be an important contributor to the pathogenesis of I/R injury. We hypothesize that a non-peptidyl low molecular weight radical scavenger (IAC) therapy may counteract this factor, ultimately providing some protection after acute phase renal I/R injury. The aim of this preliminary study was to assess the ability of IAC to reduce acute kidney injury in C57BL/6 mice after 30-minute of bilateral ischemia followed by reperfusion. The rise in serum creatinine level was higher in C57BL/6 control mice after I/R when compared to IAC (1 mg)-treated mice. Control mice showed greater body weight loss compared to IAC-treated mice, and at pathology, reduced signs of tubular necrosis were also evident in IAC-treated mice. These preliminary evidences lay the basis for more comprehensive studies on the positive effects of IAC as a complementary therapeutic approach for acute phase renal I/R injury

It is Hobbes, not Rousseau:an experiment on voting and redistribution

We perform an experiment which provides a laboratory replica of some important features of the welfare state. In the experiment, all individuals in a group decide whether to make a costly effort, which produces a random (independent) outcome for each one of them. The group members then vote on whether to redistribute the resulting and commonly known total sum of earnings equally amongst themselves. This game has two equilibria, if played once. In one of them, all players make effort and there is little redistribution. In the other one, there is no effort and nothingWe thank Iris Bohnet, Tim Cason, David Cooper, John Duffy, Maia Guell, John Van Huyck and Robin Mason for helpful conversations and encouragement. The comments of the Editor and two referees helped improve the paper. We gratefully acknowledge the financial support from Spain’s Ministry of Science and Innovation under grants CONSOLIDER INGENIO 2010 CSD2006-0016 (all authors), ECO2009-10531 (Cabrales), ECO2008-01768 (Nagel) and the Comunidad de Madrid under grant Excelecon (Cabrales), the Generalitat de Catalunya and the CREA program (Nagel), and project SEJ2007-64340 of Spain’s Ministerio de Educación y Ciencia (Rodríguez Mora).Publicad