How important is randomisation in a stepped wedge trial?

In cluster randomised trials, randomisation increases internal study validity. If enough clusters are randomised, an unadjusted analysis should be unbiased. If a smaller number of clusters are included, stratified or matched randomisation can increase comparability between trial arms. In addition, an adjusted analysis may be required; nevertheless, randomisation removes the possibility for systematically biased allocation and increases transparency. In stepped wedge trials, clusters are randomised to receive an intervention at different start times ('steps'), and all clusters eventually receive it. In a recent study protocol for a 'modified stepped wedge trial', the investigators considered randomisation of the clusters (hospital wards), but decided against it for ethical and logistical reasons, and under the assumption that it would not add much to the rigour of the evaluation. We show that the benefits of randomisation for cluster randomised trials also apply to stepped wedge trials. The biggest additional issue for stepped wedge trials in relation to parallel cluster randomised trials is the need to control for secular trends in the outcome. Analysis of stepped wedge trials can in theory be based on 'horizontal' or 'vertical' comparisons. Horizontal comparisons are based on measurements taken before and after the intervention is introduced in each cluster, and are unbiased if there are no secular trends. Vertical comparisons are based on outcome measurements from clusters that have switched to the intervention condition and those from clusters that have yet to switch, and are unbiased under randomisation since at any time point, which clusters are in intervention and control conditions will have been determined at random. Secular outcome trends are a possibility in many settings. Many stepped wedge trials are analysed with a mixed model, including a random effect for cluster and fixed effects for time period to account for secular trends, thereby combining both vertical and horizontal comparisons of intervention and control clusters. The importance of randomisation in a stepped wedge trial is that the effects of time can be estimated from the data, and bias from secular trends that would otherwise arise can be controlled for, provided the trends are correctly specified in the model

Effectiveness and safety of misoprostol distributed to antenatal women to prevent postpartum haemorrhage after child-births: a stepped-wedge cluster-randomized trial.

BACKGROUND: Oral misoprostol, administered by trained health-workers is effective and safe for preventing postpartum haemorrhage (PPH). There is interest in expanding administration of misoprostol by non-health workers, including task-shifting to pregnant women themselves. However, the use of misoprostol for preventing PPH in home-births remains controversial, due to the limited evidence to support self-administration or leaving it in the hands of non-health workers. This study aimed to determine if antenatally distributing misoprostol to pregnant women to self-administer at home birth reduces PPH. METHODS: Between February 2013 and March 2014, we conducted a stepped-wedge cluster-randomized trial in six health facilities in Central Uganda. Women at 28+ weeks of gestation attending antenatal care were eligible. Women in the control-arm received the standard-of-care; while the intervention-arm were offered 600 mcg of misoprostol to swallow immediately after birth of baby, when oxytocin was not available. The primary outcome (PPH) was a drop in postpartum maternal haemoglobin (Hb) by ≥ 2 g/dl, lower than the prenatal Hb. Analysis was by intention-to-treat at the cluster level and we used a paired t-tests to assess whether the mean difference between the control and intervention groups was statistically significant. RESULTS: 97% (2466/2545) of eligible women consented to participate; 1430 and 1036 in the control and intervention arms respectively. Two thousand fifty-seven of the participants were successfully followed up and 271 (13.2%) delivered outside a health facility. There was no significant difference between the study group in number of women who received a uterotonic at birth (control 80.4% vs intervention 91.4%, mean difference = -11.0%, 95% confidence interval [CI] -25.7% to 3.6%, p = 0.11). No woman took misoprostol before their baby's birth. Shivering and fever were 14.9% in the control arm compared to 22.2% in the intervention arm (mean difference = -7.2%, 95% CI -11.1% to -3.7%), p = 0.005). There was a slight, but non-significant, reduction in the percentage of women with Hb drop ≥ 2g/dl from 18.5% in the control arm to 11.4% in the intervention arm (mean difference = 7.1%, 95% CI -3.1% to 17.3%, p = 0.14). Similarly, there was no significant difference between the groups in the primary outcome in the women who delivered at home (control 9.6% vs intervention 14.5%, mean difference -4.9; 95% CI -12.7 to 2.9), p = 0.17). CONCLUSION: This study was unable to detect a significant reduction in PPH following the antenatal distribution of misoprostol. The study was registered with Pan-African Clinical Trials Network ( PACTR201303000459148, on 19/11/2012)

Evaluation of the Australian first few X household transmission project for COVID-19

Background: The Australian First Few X (FFX) Household Transmission Project for COVID-19 was the first prospective, multi-jurisdictional study of its kind in Australia. The project was undertaken as a partnership between federal and state health departments and the Australian Partnership for Preparedness Research on Infectious Disease Emergencies (APPRISE) and was active from April to October 2020. Methods: We aimed to identify and explore the challenges and strengths of the Australian FFX Project to inform future FFX study development and integration into pandemic preparedness plans. We asked key stakeholders and partners involved with implementation to identify and rank factors relating to the strengths and challenges of project implementation in two rounds of modified Delphi surveys. Key representatives from jurisdictional health departments were then interviewed to contextualise findings within public health processes and information needs to develop a final set of recommendations for FFX study development in Australia. Results: Four clear recommendations emerged from the evaluation. Future preparedness planning should aim to formalise and embed partnerships between health departments and researchers to help better integrate project data collection into core public health surveillance activities. The development of functional, adaptable protocols with pre-established ethics and governance approvals and investment in national data infrastructure were additional priority areas noted by evaluation participants. Conclusion: The evaluation provided a great opportunity to consolidate lessons learnt from the Australian FFX Household Transmission Project. The developed recommendations should be incorporated into future pandemic preparedness plans in Australia to enable effective implementation and increase local utility and value of the FFX platform within emergency public health response

Higher proportion of older influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 cases in Victoria, 2011

The influenza surveillance system in Victoria is comprised of several components, including a general practitioner sentinel surveillance system, surveillance for influenza-like illness (ILI) in consultations made by the Melbourne Medical Deputising Service, laboratory confirmed influenza notified to the Victorian Department of Health and strain typing performed by the World Health Organization Collaborating Centre for Reference and Research on Influenza. As measured by ILI from both the MMDS and GPSS, the 2011 influenza season in Victoria was mild compared to previous seasons and was not dominated by any type or subtype of influenza. There were 13 laboratory confirmed influenza outbreaks in 2011, nearly all of which were in aged care facilities. GPs continue to swab more patients, a trend started in 2009, with a significantly lower percent of these testing positive for influenza than previous years. The proportion of ILI and swabbed patients who were vaccinated was also significantly lower in 2011 than previously. Strain analysis undertaken by the WHO Collaborating Centre indicated a good antigenic match between the 2011 vaccine and circulating strains. The Victorian influenza surveillance system continues to provide a reliable, consistent system for monitoring the epidemiology of ILI and laboratory confirmed influenza in Victoria.VIDRL receives support for its influenza surveillance program from the Victorian Government Department of Health. The Melbourne WHO Collaborating Centre for Reference and Research on Influenza is supported by the Australian Government Department of Health and Ageing

Using MGA to shorten the beef breeding season (2002)

Modified conventional synchronization systems for beef cows boost fertility and increase the total number of females that can be inseminated.New March 2002 -- Extension website

Prevalence and causes of prescribing errors: the prescribing outcomes for trainee doctors engaged in clinical training (PROTECT) study

Objectives Study objectives were to investigate the prevalence and causes of prescribing errors amongst foundation doctors (i.e. junior doctors in their first (F1) or second (F2) year of post-graduate training), describe their knowledge and experience of prescribing errors, and explore their self-efficacy (i.e. confidence) in prescribing. Method A three-part mixed-methods design was used, comprising: prospective observational study; semi-structured interviews and cross-sectional survey. All doctors prescribing in eight purposively selected hospitals in Scotland participated. All foundation doctors throughout Scotland participated in the survey. The number of prescribing errors per patient, doctor, ward and hospital, perceived causes of errors and a measure of doctors' self-efficacy were established. Results 4710 patient charts and 44,726 prescribed medicines were reviewed. There were 3364 errors, affecting 1700 (36.1%) charts (overall error rate: 7.5%; F1:7.4%; F2:8.6%; consultants:6.3%). Higher error rates were associated with : teaching hospitals (p&#60;0.001), surgical (p = &#60;0.001) or mixed wards (0.008) rather thanmedical ward, higher patient turnover wards (p&#60;0.001), a greater number of prescribed medicines (p&#60;0.001) and the months December and June (p&#60;0.001). One hundred errors were discussed in 40 interviews. Error causation was multi-factorial; work environment and team factors were particularly noted. Of 548 completed questionnaires (national response rate of 35.4%), 508 (92.7% of respondents) reported errors, most of which (328 (64.6%) did not reach the patient. Pressure from other staff, workload and interruptions were cited as the main causes of errors. Foundation year 2 doctors reported greater confidence than year 1 doctors in deciding the most appropriate medication regimen. Conclusions Prescribing errors are frequent and of complex causation. Foundation doctors made more errors than other doctors, but undertook the majority of prescribing, making them a key target for intervention. Contributing causes included work environment, team, task, individual and patient factors. Further work is needed to develop and assess interventions that address these.</p

The timing of tuberculosis after isoniazid preventive therapy among gold miners in South Africa: a prospective cohort study

BackgroundThe durability of isoniazid preventive therapy (IPT) in preventing tuberculosis (TB) is limited in high-prevalence settings. The underlying mechanism (reactivation of persistent latent TB or reinfection) is not known. We aimed to investigate the timing of TB incidence during and after IPT and associated risk factors in a very high TB and HIV-prevalence setting, and to compare the observed rate with a modelled estimate of TB incidence rate after IPT due to reinfection.MethodsIn a post-hoc analysis of a cluster-randomized trial of community-wide IPT among South African gold miners, all intervention arm participants that were dispensed IPT for at least one of the intended 9months were included. An incident TB case was defined as any participant with a positive sputum smear or culture, or with a clinical TB diagnosis assigned by a senior study clinician. Crude TB incidence rates were calculated during and after IPT, overall and by follow-up time. HIV status was not available. Multivariable Cox regression was used to analyse risk factors by follow-up time after IPT. Estimates from a published mathematical model of trial data were used to calculate the average reinfection TB incidence in the first year after IPT.ResultsAmong 18,520 participants (96% male, mean age 41years, median follow-up 2.1years), 708 developed TB. The TB incidence rate during the intended IPT period was 1.3/100 person-years (pyrs; 95% confidence interval (CI), 1.0–1.6) and afterwards 2.3/100 pyrs (95% CI, 1.9–2.7). TB incidence increased within 6months followed by a stable rate over time. There was no evidence for changing risk factors for TB disease over time after miners stopped IPT. The average TB incidence rate attributable to reinfection in the first year was estimated at 1.3/100 pyrs, compared to an observed rate of 2.2/100 pyrs (95% CI, 1.8–2.7).ConclusionsThe durability of protection by IPT was lost within 6–12 months in this setting with a high HIV prevalence and a high annual risk of M. tuberculosis infection. The observed rate was higher than the modelled rate, suggesting that reactivation of persistent latent infection played a role in the rapid return to baseline TB incidence.Electronic supplementary materialThe online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s12916-016-0589-3) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users

The ongoing value of first few X studies for COVID-19 in the Western Pacific Region

First few ‘X’ (FFX) studies for COVID-19 involve data collection from confirmed cases and their close contacts. They remain relevant especially as many remain susceptible to infection, and as they can provide detailed insight into vaccine effectiveness and the epidemiology of variants of concern, helping to inform a proportionate health response