Inspections To Avert Terrorism: Robustness Under Severe Uncertainty

Protecting against terrorist attacks requires making decisions in a world in which attack probabilities are largely unknown. The potential for very large losses encourages a conservative perspective, in particular toward decisions that are robust. But robustness, in the sense of assurance against extreme outcomes, ordinarily is not the only desideratum in uncertain environments. We adopt Yakov Ben-Haim’s (2001b) model of information gap decision making to investigate the problem of inspecting a number of similar targets when one of the targets may be attacked, but with unknown probability. We apply this to a problem of inspecting a sample of incoming shipping containers for a terrorist weapon. While it is always possible to lower the risk of a successful attack by inspecting more vessels, we show that robustness against the failure to guarantee a minimum level of expected utility might not be monotonic. Robustness modeling based on expected utility and incorporating inspection costs yields decision protocols that are a useful alternative to traditional risk analysis.Terrorism, Robustness, Severe Uncertainty, Port Security

Biomass for thermochemical conversion: targets and challenges

Includes bibliographical references (pages 13-20).Bioenergy will be one component of a suite of alternatives to fossil fuels. Effective conversion of biomass to energy will require the careful pairing of advanced conversion technologies with biomass feedstocks optimized for the purpose. Lignocellulosic biomass can be converted to useful energy products via two distinct pathways: enzymatic or thermochemical conversion. The thermochemical pathways are reviewed and potential biotechnology or breeding targets to improve feedstocks for pyrolysis, gasification, and combustion are identified. Biomass traits influencing the effectiveness of the thermochemical process (cell wall composition, mineral and moisture content) differ from those important for enzymatic conversion and so properties are discussed in the language of biologists (biochemical analysis) as well as that of engineers (proximate and ultimate analysis). We discuss the genetic control, potential environmental influence, and consequences of modification of these traits. Improving feedstocks for thermochemical conversion can be accomplished by the optimization of lignin levels, and the reduction of ash and moisture content. We suggest that ultimate analysis and associated properties such as H:C, O:C, and heating value might be more amenable than traditional biochemical analysis to the high-throughput necessary for the phenotyping of large plant populations. Expanding our knowledge of these biomass traits will play a critical role in the utilization of biomass for energy production globally, and add to our understanding of how plants tailor their composition with their environment.Published with support from the Colorado State University Libraries Open Access Research and Scholarship Fund

Evaluation of spatial productivity patterns in an annual grassland during an AVIRIS overflight

In May 1991, coincident with an Airborne Visible/Infrared Imaging Spectrometer (AVIRIS) overflight, a ground-based study covering 9 hectares of an annual grassland was completed. There were two goals of this ground study: (1) obtain ecologically and physiologically meaningful data for relating AVIRIS images to canopy structure, biochemistry, and physiology; and (2) evaluate the suitability of the 20-m AVIRIS pixel size for depicting detailed spatial patterns of productivity

Biogeographic analysis of the Tortugas Ecological Reserve: Examining the refuge effect following reserve establishment

Almost 120 days at sea aboard three NOAA research vessels and one fishing vessel over the past three years have supported biogeographic characterization of Tortugas Ecological Reserve (TER). This work initiated measurement of post-implementation effects of TER as a refuge for exploited species. In Tortugas South, seafloor transect surveys were conducted using divers, towed operated vehicles (TOV), remotely operated vehicles (ROV), various sonar platforms, and the Deepworker manned submersible. ARGOS drifter releases, satellite imagery, ichthyoplankton surveys, sea surface temperature, and diver census were combined to elucidate potential dispersal of fish spawning in this environment. Surveys are being compiled into a GIS to allow resource managers to gauge benthic resource status and distribution. Drifter studies have determined that within the ~ 30 days of larval life stage for fishes spawning at Tortugas South, larvae could reach as far downstream as Tampa Bay on the west Florida coast and Cape Canaveral on the east coast. Together with actual fish surveys and water mass delineation, this work demonstrates that the refuge status of this area endows it with tremendous downstream spillover and larval export potential for Florida reef habitats and promotes the maintenance of their fish communities. In Tortugas North, 30 randomly selected, permanent stations were established. Five stations were assigned to each of the following six areas: within Dry Tortugas National Park, falling north of the prevailing currents (Park North); within Dry Tortugas National Park, falling south of the prevailing currents (Park South); within the Ecological Reserve falling north of the prevailing currents (Reserve North); within the Ecological Reserve falling south of the prevailing currents (Reserve South); within areas immediately adjacent to these two strata, falling north of the prevailing currents (Out North); and within areas immediately adjacent to these two strata, falling south of the prevailing currents (Out South). Intensive characterization of these sites was conducted using multiple sonar techniques, TOV, ROV, diver-based digital video collection, diver-based fish census, towed fish capture, sediment particle-size, benthic chlorophyll analyses, and stable isotope analyses of primary producers, fish, and, shellfish. In order to complement and extend information from studies focused on the coral reef, we have targeted the ecotone between the reef and adjacent, non-reef habitats as these areas are well-known in ecology for indicating changes in trophic relationships at the ecosystem scale. Such trophic changes are hypothesized to occur as top-down control of the system grows with protection of piscivorous fishes. Preliminary isotope data, in conjunction with our prior results from the west Florida shelf, suggest that the shallow water benthic habitats surrounding the coral reefs of TER will prove to be the source of a significant amount of the primary production ultimately fueling fish production throughout TER and downstream throughout the range of larval fish dispersal. Therefore, the status and influence of the previously neglected, non-reef habitat within the refuge (comprising ~70% of TER) appears to be intimately tied to the health of the coral reef community proper. These data, collected in a biogeographic context, employing an integrated Before-After Control Impact design at multiple spatial scales, leave us poised to document and quantify the postimplementation effects of TER. Combined with the work at Tortugas South, this project represents a multi-disciplinary effort of sometimes disparate disciplines (fishery oceanography, benthic ecology, food web analysis, remote sensing/geography/landscape ecology, and resource management) and approaches (physical, biological, ecological). We expect the continuation of this effort to yield critical information for the management of TER and the evaluation of protected areas as a refuge for exploited species. (PDF contains 32 pages.

Combined fishing and climate forcing in the southern Benguela upwelling ecosystem: an end-to-end modelling approach reveals dampened effects

The effects of climate and fishing on marine ecosystems have usually been studied separately, but their interactions make ecosystem dynamics difficult to understand and predict. Of particular interest to management, the potential synergism or antagonism between fishing pressure and climate forcing is analysed in this paper, using an end-to-end ecosystem model of the southern Benguela ecosystem, built from coupling hydrodynamic, biogeochemical and multispecies fish models (ROMS-N 2 P 2 Z 2 D 2 -OSMOSE). Scenarios of different intensities of upwelling-favourable wind stress combined with scenarios of fishing top-predator fish were tested. Analyses of isolated drivers show that the bottom-up effect of the climate forcing propagates up the food chain whereas the top-down effect of fishing cascades down to zooplankton in unfavourable environmental conditions but dampens before it reaches phytoplankton. When considering both climate and fishing drivers together, it appears that top-down control dominates the link between top-predator fish and forage fish, whereas interactions between the lower trophic levels are dominated by bottom-up control. The forage fish functional group appears to be a central component of this ecosystem, being the meeting point of two opposite trophic controls. The set of combined scenarios shows that fishing pressure and upwelling-favourable wind stress have mostly dampened effects on fish populations, compared to predictions from the separate effects of the stressors. Dampened effects result in biomass accumulation at the top predator fish level but a depletion of biomass at the forage fish level. This should draw our attention to the evolution of this functional group, which appears as both structurally important in the trophic functioning of the ecosystem, and very sensitive to climate and fishing pressures. In particular, diagnoses considering fishing pressure only might be more optimistic than those that consider combined effects of fishing and environmental variability

Genetic bias, diversity indices, physiochemical properties and CDR3 motifs divide auto-reactive from allo-reactive T-Cell repertoires

The distinct properties of allo-reactive T-cell repertoires are not well understood. To investigate whether auto-reactive and allo-reactive T-cell repertoires encoded distinct properties, we used dextramer enumeration, enrichment, single-cell T-cell receptor (TCR) sequencing and multiparameter analysis. We found auto-reactive and allo-reactive T-cells differed in mean ex vivo frequency which was antigen dependent. Allo-reactive T-cells showed clear differences in TCR architecture, with enriched usage of specific T-cell receptor variable (TRBJ) genes and broader use of T-cell receptor variable joining (TRBJ) genes. Auto-reactive T-cell repertoires exhibited complementary determining regions three (CDR3) lengths using a Gaussian distribution whereas allo-reactive T-cell repertoires exhibited distorted patterns in CDR3 length. CDR3 loops from allo-reactive T-cells showed distinct physical-chemical properties, tending to encode loops that were more acidic in charge. Allo-reactive T-cell repertoires differed in diversity metrics, tending to show increased overall diversity and increased homogeneity between repertoires. Motif analysis of CDR3 loops showed allo-reactive T-cell repertoires differed in motif preference which included broader motif use. Collectively, these data conclude that allo-reactive T-cell repertoires are indeed different to auto-reactive repertoires and provide tangible metrics for further investigations and validation. Given that the antigens studied here are overexpressed on multiple cancers and that allo-reactive TCRs often show increased ligand affinity, this new TCR bank also has translational potential for adoptive cell therapy, soluble TCR-based therapy and rational TCR design

CpG island methylation phenotype (CIMP) in oral cancer: associated with a marked inflammatory response and less aggressive tumour biology.

Studies in several tumour sites highlight the significance of the CpG island methylation phenotype (CIMP), with distinct features of histology, biological aggression and outcome. We utilise pyrosequencing techniques of quantitative methylation analysis to investigate the presence of CIMP in oral squamous cell carcinoma (OSCC) for the first time, and evaluate its correlation with allelic imbalance, pathology and clinical behaviour. Tumour tissue, control tissue and PBLs were obtained from 74 patients with oral squamous cell carcinoma. Pyrosequencing was used to analyse methylation patterns in 75-200 bp regions of the CpG rich gene promoters of 10 genes with a broad range of cellular functions. Allelic imbalance was investigated using a multiplexed panel of 11 microsatellite markers. Corresponding variables, histopathological staging and grading were correlated with these genetic and epigenetic aberrations. A cluster of tumours with a greater degree of promoter methylation than would be predicted by chance alone (P=0.001) were designated CIMP+ve. This group had less aggressive tumour biology in terms of tumour thickness (p=0.015) and nodal metastasis (P=0.012), this being apparently independent of tumour diameter. Further, it seems that these CIMP+ve tumours excited a greater host inflammatory response (P=0.019). The exact mechanisms underlying CIMP remain obscure but the association with a greater inflammatory host response supports existing theories relating these features in other tumour sites. As CIMP has significant associations with other well documented prognostic indicators, it may prove beneficial to include methylation analyses in molecular risk modelling of tumours

Ultralow Temperature Studies of Nanometer Size Semiconductor Devices

Contains report on one research project.Joint Services Electronics Program (Contract DAAL03-86-K-0002)Joint Services Electronics Program (Contract DAAL03-89-C-0001

Ultralow-Temperature Measurements of Submicron Devices Nanometer-Scale Semiconductor Devices

Contains project goals.Joint Services Electronics Program (Contract DAALO3-86-K-0002