Assessing pension expenses determinants? The case of Portugal

Mestrado em Economia Monetária e FinanceiraA falta de estudos acerca do impacto de variáveis demográficas e económicas como o envelhecimento, produtividade e desemprego na despesa da Segurança Social Portuguesa promove o aparecimento de preocupações acerca da sua sustentabilidade financeira. Partindo de uma perspectiva teórica, a baixa fecundidade aumenta o índice de dependência de idosos e reduz o crescimento económico, com a agravante do desemprego que contrai a base contributiva e a produtividade (aumentando o peso da despesa com pensões na economia). No entanto, é crucial desenvolver um trabalho aplicado em Portugal nesta temática de modo a avaliar estas conclusões. Usando séries temporais de dados Portugueses de 1975 a 2014, foi encontrada evidência estatística de cointegração entre a população desempregada entre os 15 e os 64 anos de idade, produtividade aparente do trabalho e índice de dependência de idosos (variáveis explicativas) e despesa com pensões em percentagem do PIB (variável dependente), mas o sinal do coeficiente de longo prazo para a componente demográfica sofre alterações quando as variáveis dummy são excluídas , levantando dúvidas acerca do impacto do envelhecimento na despesa com pensões. As restantes variáveis explicativas apresentam um sinal positivo, influenciando positivamente a despesa com pensões em percentagem do PIB. Por ultimo, foi desenvolvido um modelo VECM com funções impulso-resposta e decomposição da variância, e os resultados evidenciam que, em Portugal, o envelhecimento tem um impacto quase insignificante no longo prazo, comparando com o desemprego e a produtividade.The lack of studies about the impact of demographic and economic variables such as ageing, productivity and unemployment, on Portuguese Social Security expenditures, arises expected concerns on its financial sustainability. From a theoretical perspective, low fertility increases old-age dependence index and decreases economic growth, reinforced by unemployment which shrinks the contributory base and productivity (increasing the burden of pension expenditures on the overall economy). However, it is crucial to develop an applied work in this field in Portugal to assess these conclusions. Using Portuguese time-series data from 1975 to 2014, it was found statistical evidence of cointegration between unemployed people aged between 15 and 64 years old, apparent productivity of labour and old-age dependence index (explanatory variables) and pension expenditure as a share of GDP (dependent variable), but the sign of long-run coefficient for the demographic component differs when the dummy components are excluded, raising doubts about the impact of ageing on pension expenditures. The remaining explanatory variables present a positive sign, positively influencing the pension expenditure as a share of GDP. At last, it was developed a VECM model with impulse-response functions and variance decomposition, and the results showed that, in Portugal, ageing has an almost insignificant impact in the long-run, comparing with unemployment and productivity.N/

COLABORAÇÃO EM MASSA OU AMADORISMO EM MASSA?

O alfa e o ómega deste estudo é a tentativa de provar a credibilidade da colaboração em massa enquanto pedra angular do modelo de negócio comummente denominado por open source. Para o demonstrar, realizou-se um estudo comparativo entre a qualidade dos artigos da Wikipédia e da Enciclopédia Britânica, tendo sido dado particular relevo à metodologia utilizada de modo a que os resultados obtidos fossem os mais fidedignos e abrangentes possíveis. É utilizada uma amostra aleatória representativa do universo composto pelos artigos que integram ambas as enciclopédias, tendo estes sido avaliado por peritos proficientes na temática em que estes se inserem. A qualidade média dos artigos da Wikipédia analisados revelou-se superior à dos seus pares, sendo a diferença encontrada estatisticamente significativa. Um inquérito previamente realizado junto dos avaliadores mostrou a reduzida confiança destes na qualidade da informação contida na Wikipédia. Esta percepção da qualidade e os resultados diametralmente opostos obtidos na avaliação dos artigos através de uma prova cega reforça a isenção do painel de avaliadores e a robustez dos resultados obtidos. Em termos de estrutura iremos começar com um pequeno enquadramento teórico; apresentando de seguida a metodologia utilizada no estudo e as implicações e constrangimentos que a escolha desta acarreta; finalizando com a apresentação dos resultados obtidos e as conclusões que destes podemos extrair

GESTÃO DO TRABALHO E PARTICIPAÇÃO: CHEGA DE OBA-OBA?

This article aims at investigating the work management in the advertising agencies in the city of Belo Horizonte. The scope for the analysis was the work developed by Meir (2005) in the book “End of the fun”. The repercussion aroused by the considerations in the book was the reason to choose this author, because she proposes a return to the old fashion way of managing the work. The authors discusses that the forms of managing work are not suitable for the advertisement agencies and the professional that work for them. She believes that the office cannot be an extension of the home and the leisure. The qualitative research developed for this investigation presents data related to the ways of working of these organizations and corroborates with the author’s statements. It was observed that the employees of the agencies fall into two categories of workers: a rigid group, that works under strict and well definite rules, and the other group that performs the tasks in accordance with the demands of the client’s advertising campaign. The results point out to other issues such as “the lack of creativity toward the administrative procedures” and the clear division of the work relations in only one organization

A Panel Data Econometric Study of Corporate Tax Revenue in European Union: Structural, Cyclical Business and Institutional Determinants

This paper studies the economic determinants of corporate tax revenue to Gross Domestic Product (GDP) across European Union members over the period 1998-2009. The Feasible Generalized Least Squares (FGLS) regression results suggest that structural, cyclical, international and institutional factors such as GDP, Government Deficit, Industry Turnover, Unemployment, Number of Enterprises, Trade Openness, Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) and Corruption affect revenue performance of an economy. Thus, the findings show that Unemployment Rate and Corruption have an adverse effect on tax collection, while the other analysed factors contribute to a better performance concerning tax collection. In the present paper we also consider as explanatory factors the tax variables Effective Average Tax Rate (EATR) and Effective Marginal Tax Rate (EMTR). In fact, empirical results indicate a parabolic relationship between EMTR and corporate tax revenues, reinforcing the hypothesis of the existence of a Laffer curve. Our findings also suggest that the last two years of European Union enlargement are likely not to have had effect in corporate tax revenue to GDP. In addition, specific factors of some countries (Greece, Portugal and Spain) seem to positively affect corporate revenues.Corporate Tax Revenue, EATR, EMTR, Corruption, Laffer Curve

Energetic Interactions Between Minas Gerais State and the Rest of Brazil: An Inter-Regional Input-Output Analysis

This paper analyses the interdepence between the State of Minas Gerais and the rest of Brazil with regard to energy consumption. A hibryd interregional input-output model, by means of which energy intensity measures are computed, is used to undertake the analysis. The energy measures allow, for instance, to assess the degree in which a sector production in Minas Gerais impacts the energy consumption inside and outside the state. Also, the measures allow to assess the degree in which sector production in the rest of Brazil (outside Minas Gerais) impacts energy consumption inside and outside the state. The analysis presents disaggregate information for 14 economic sectors, two spatial areas (Minas Gerais and the rest of Brazil), and one kind of energy use (total energy), thus allowing to trace an accurate portrait of interdependence patterns

Usos da terra e alterações sociais em zonas rurais: caso dos Cortiços Trás-os-Montes

Cortiços, freguesia do concelho de Macedo de Cavaleiros, situada no Interior Norte de Portugal, seguiu nos últimos 50 anos uma dinâmica social comum à generalidade das áreas do Interior Norte e Centro. O presente trabalho tem como objectivo efectuar a primeira aproximação às consequências que a alteração social e económica provocou nos usos da terra. A descrição da alteração é realizada com recurso à modelação da dinâmica dos usos. A modelação da alteração dos usos da terra pode ser útil para perceber e analisar os factores socioeconómicos associados às opções de utilização, às actividades agrícolas e às estratégias relacionadas com a gestão dos recursos naturais. A natureza dos dados existentes e os conhecimentos teóricos sobre a natureza dos processos envolvidos levam a que neste trabalho se opte por uma aproximação empreendida através de modelos estatísticos, onde as relações de causa e efeito associadas são situadas no que se convencionou amiúde chamar “caixa preta”, para se observarem as probabilidades das alterações envolvidas. Esta via de abordagem carece assim de generalidade, uma vez que não são quantificados os processos que justificam as probabilidades envolvidas, mas permitem, com alguma exiguidade de informação, obter resultados que, numa segunda fase, se podem relacionar com as causas, o que permitirá obter uma integração entre a teoria e a observação, eventualmente capaz de justificar pelo menos alguns dos processos que levam à sucessão

A survey on the semi supervised learning paradigm in the context of speech emotion recognition

The area of Automatic Speech Emotion Recognition has been a hot topic for researchers for quite some time now. The recent breakthroughs on technology in the field of Machine Learning open up doors for multiple approaches of many kinds. However, some concerns have been persistent throughout the years where we highlight the design and collection of data. Proper annotation of data can be quite expensive and sometimes not even viable, as specialists are often needed for such a complex task as emotion recognition. The evolution of the semi supervised learning paradigm tries to drag down the high dependency on labelled data, potentially facilitating the design of a proper pipeline of tasks, single or multi modal, towards the final objective of the recognition of the human emotional mental state. In this paper, a review of the current single modal (audio) Semi Supervised Learning state of art is explored as a possible solution to the bottlenecking issues mentioned, as a way of helping and guiding future researchers when getting to the planning phase of such task, where many positive aspects from each piece of work can be drawn and combined.This work has been supported by FCT - Fundação para a Ciencia e Tecnologia within the R&D Units Project Scope: UIDB/00319/202

The Brazilian military reserve officers and the defense of the institutional memory of March 31, 1964

This article analyzes the current debate surrounding the dispute over the official memory of the coup d’état and the corporate-military dictatorship implanted in Brazil in 1964. It is based on the reaction of former political agents of the institution (currently military reserve officers) and private websites and blogs that were created in order to constitute a space of discourse defending the interests of these military and the institutional memories of the coup and the dictatorship. Complementarily, it discusses how the regime’s “propaganda” reinforced the construction of this memory through the speeches published in the Army’s newsletter, specifically on the commemoration of March 31, and institutional bibliographical production.Keywords: 1964 coup, dictatorship from 1964 to 1985, military memory

O conflito em contexto escolar: transformar barreiras em oportunidade

Nas relações que as pessoas estabelecem entre si ocorrem situações de conflito. A escola constitui um interface social propício a uma envolvência onde os conflitos proliferam face à complexidade do processo educacional. Transformar uma barreira em oportunidade é uma arte em que a formação do professor tem uma influência significativa nas decisões. Este artigo apresenta os resultados da análise de opiniões de futuros professores, relativas à gestão de conflitos, e dissemina boas práticas em contexto escolar. Deste modo, esperámos contribuir para um debate crítico-reflexivo sobre esta temática na formação inicial e para a resolução de problemas no âmbito da gestão de conflitos na comunidade escolar

Analyzing the postponement of time production systems in maketostock and seasonal demand

The supply chain management, postponement and demand management functions are of strategic importance to the economic success of organizations because they influence the production process, when viewed in isolation and empirically may hinder understanding of their behavior. The aim of this paper is to analyze the influence of the postponement in an enterprise production system with make-to-stock and with seasonal demand. The research method used was a case study, the instruments of data collection were semi-structured interviews, documentary analysis and site visits. This research is restricted to analysis of the influence that different levels of delay and the company's position in the supply chain have on the practice of demand management in the productive segment graphic, product spiral notebook and also in relation to geographical focus (region of the state São Paulo), in which it will seek to interview the managers and directors. As a way to support the research on the analysis of case study and the final considerations will be discussed the following issues: supply chain management, postponement, demand management and production system make-to-stock. The demand management can be understood as a practice that allows you to manage and coordinate the supply chain in reverse, i.e. the consumer to the supplier, in which consumers trigger actions for the supply of products can make the process more efficient. The purpose of managing the supply chain is able to allow the addition of value, exceeding the expectations of consumers, it is necessary to develop a relationship with suppliers and customers win-win. The postponement strategy must fit the characteristics of the turbulent environment within the markets along with demands that require variety of customized products and services and reasonable costs, aiming to support decision making. The postponement of time can be a way to soften the increase in inventory of finished product in the company, which may have a high value, being necessary to reduce the lead time and also suppliers to change their production strategy of make- to-stock to make-to-order. The production system make-to-stock shows enough interest to organizations that are operating in markets with high demand variability, i.e. variations in seasonal as a way of trying to protect their production and be more responsive to market needs