A sectoral analysis of the future challenges facing the Spanish economy

Este trabajo proporciona una visión acerca del posicionamiento relativo de los distintos sectores de actividad ante los principales retos que afronta la economía española. Por un lado, ante el desafío de impulsar el crecimiento a medio plazo, se examinan las perspectivas de evolución de la productividad por ramas, analizando el capital humano y tecnológico y las dinámicas empresariales dentro de cada sector. Por otro lado, se clasifican los sectores según la resiliencia frente a las diferentes transformaciones estructurales que han de afrontar las principales economías, como la tecnológica y digital, la transición energética y el envejecimiento poblacional. Para ello, se ha resumido la información procedente de un conjunto muy amplio de indicadores sectoriales, lo que permite clasificar las ramas productivas según el grado relativo de exposición frente a cada uno de estos retos. Los servicios de actividades profesionales, científicas y técnicas, información y comunicaciones, y actividades financieras y de seguros, así como la fabricación de maquinaria, productos informáticos, electrónicos y ópticos y la de productos farmacéuticos, se encuentran bien posicionados en términos tanto de productividad como de resiliencia, pero se trata de sectores, en general, con una reducida dimensión en la economía española. Por el contrario, la hostelería, el sector primario y los servicios de transporte presentan las mayores vulnerabilidades en las dimensiones analizadas.This paper studies the relative position of various sectors of activity in the face of the main structural challenges for the Spanish economy. First, as regards the challenge of boosting medium-term growth, we review the sectoral developments on the productivity side, analysing human and technological capital and business dynamics within each sector. Second, the sectors are classified on the basis of their resilience to the different structural transformations currently in the pipeline for the main economies, such as technological and digital transformation, energy transition and population ageing. To this end, the information from a very broad set of sectoral indicators has been summarised in a narrow set of composite indicators in order to classify the productive sectors according to the relative degree of exposure to each of these challenges. Our results show that services relating to professional, scientific and technical activities, information and communication, and financial and insurance activities, as well as the manufacture of machinery, computer, electronics and pharmaceutical products, are well placed in terms of both productivity and resilience. However, in general these sectors have little weight in the Spanish economy. By contrast, accommodation and food service activities, the primary sector and transport services are the most vulnerable in the dimensions analysed

Box 3. Mark-ups in Spain: recent developments

Artículo de revist

Un análisis sectorial de los retos futuros de la economía española

Este trabajo proporciona una visión acerca del posicionamiento relativo de los distintos sectores de actividad ante los principales retos que afronta la economía española. Por un lado, ante el desafío de impulsar el crecimiento a medio plazo, se examinan las perspectivas de evolución de la productividad por ramas, analizando el capital humano y tecnológico y las dinámicas empresariales dentro de cada sector. Por otro lado, se clasifican los sectores según la resiliencia frente a las diferentes transformaciones estructurales que han de afrontar las principales economías, como la tecnológica y digital, la transición energética y el envejecimiento poblacional. Para ello, se ha resumido la información procedente de un conjunto muy amplio de indicadores sectoriales, lo que permite clasificar las ramas productivas según el grado relativo de exposición frente a cada uno de estos retos. Los servicios de actividades profesionales, científicas y técnicas, información y comunicaciones, y actividades financieras y de seguros, así como la fabricación de maquinaria, productos informáticos, electrónicos y ópticos y la de productos farmacéuticos, se encuentran bien posicionados en términos tanto de productividad como de resiliencia, pero se trata de sectores, en general, con una reducida dimensión en la economía española. Por el contrario, la hostelería, el sector primario y los servicios de transporte presentan las mayores vulnerabilidades en las dimensiones analizadas.This work studies the relative positioning of the different sectors of activity in the face of the main challenges facing the Spanish economy. On the one hand, regarding obstacles for boosting medium-term growth, the prospects for the evolution of total productivity are examined by analyzing human and technological capital and business dynamics within each sector. On the other hand, the sectors are classified according to their resilience to the different structural transformations that are currently in the pipeline, such as technological and digital changes, the climate-related energy transition and population ageing. To this end, the information from a broad set of sectoral indicators has been summarized into a narrow set of composite indicators to classify the productive branches according to the relative degree of exposure to each of these challenges. Our results show that professional, scientific and technical activities, information and communications, and financial and insurance services, as well as the manufacture of machinery, computer, electronic and optical products and that of pharmaceutical products are well positioned in terms of both productivity and resilience indicators. However, all these sectors have a relatively small weight in the Spanish economy, in particular, when compared with other advanced economies. On the contrary, the accommodation and food service activities, the primary sector and transport services present the worst overall performance in the dimensions analyzed

The impact of population ageing on the labour force participation rate in Spain

Rationale Population ageing is one of the greatest structural challenges facing the Spanish economy. Foremost among its multiple effects is its contractionary impact on labour supply, which will foreseeably have major implications on both the functioning of the labour market and the potential growth or sustainability of public finances. Takeaways •Population ageing over the past decade has had an estimated negative impact of around 3.4 percentage points (pp) on Spain’s participation rate in 2022. This impact has been uneven by regions, with a sharper fall in the Cantabrian regions (Asturias, Cantabria and the Basque Country). •According to the latest National Statistics Institute’s population projections, the participation rate is set to drop a further 2.8 pp by 2030 owing to the continuing ageing process. Excluding the support of net immigration flows, the drop would be 1.6 pp greater. •In addition, the impact of ageing may deepen regional divergences, since the regions that have an older population and lower GDP per capita may be expected to experience the sharpest falls in the participation rate

Sarcopenia: Molecular Pathways and Potential Targets for Intervention

Aging is associated with sarcopenia. The loss of strength results in decreased muscle mass and motor function. This process accelerates the progressive muscle deterioration observed in older adults, favoring the presence of debilitating pathologies. In addition, sarcopenia leads to a decrease in quality of life, significantly affecting self-sufficiency. Altogether, these results in an increase in economic resources from the National Health Systems devoted to mitigating this problem in the elderly, particularly in developed countries. Different etiological determinants are involved in the progression of the disease, including: neurological factors, endocrine alterations, as well as nutritional and lifestyle changes related to the adoption of more sedentary habits. Molecular and cellular mechanisms have not been clearly characterized, resulting in the absence of an effective treatment for sarcopenia. Nevertheless, physical activity seems to be the sole strategy to delay sarcopenia and its symptoms. The present review intends to bring together the data explaining how physical activity modulates at a molecular and cellular level all factors that predispose or favor the progression of this deteriorating pathology.This study was supported by ISABIAL (grant number 190290) and the Official Funding Agency for Biomedical Research of the Spanish Government, Institute of Health Carlos III (ISCIII) through CIBEROBN (CB12/03/30038), which is co-funded by the European Regional Development Fund

Recuadro 3. Evolución reciente de los márgenes empresariales en España

Artículo de revist

El impacto del envejecimiento poblacional sobre la evolución de la tasa de actividad en España

Motivación El proceso de envejecimiento poblacional supone uno de los mayores retos estructurales que afronta la economía española. Entre sus múltiples efectos, cabe destacar el impacto contractivo sobre la oferta de trabajo, que, previsiblemente, tendrá importantes repercusiones tanto sobre el funcionamiento del mercado de trabajo como sobre el crecimiento potencial o la sostenibilidad de las finanzas públicas. Ideas principales •El envejecimiento poblacional experimentado durante la última década habría tenido un impacto negativo de unos 3,4 puntos porcentuales (pp) sobre el nivel de la tasa de actividad en 2022 en España. Este impacto habría sido heterogéneo por regiones, con una caída más intensa en las regiones del Cantábrico. •De acuerdo con las últimas proyecciones poblacionales del Instituto Nacional de Estadística, la tasa de actividad caería, debido a la continuación del proceso de envejecimiento, 2,8 pp adicionales hasta 2030. Si no se tuviera en cuenta el soporte de los flujos netos de inmigración, la caída sería 1,6 pp superior. •Además, el impacto del envejecimiento puede ahondar las divergencias regionales, ya que las comunidades autónomas más envejecidas y con menor PIB per cápita experimentarían las mayores caídas de la tasa de actividad

Socioeconomic differences in COVID-19 infection, hospitalisation and mortality in urban areas in a region in the South of Europe

Background: To analyse differences in confirmed cases, hospitalisations and deaths due to COVID-19 related to census section socioeconomic variables. METHODS: Ecological study in the 12 largest municipalities in Andalusia (Spain) during the first three epidemic waves of the COVID-19 (02/26/20-03/31/21), covering 2,246 census sections (unit of analysis) and 3,027,000 inhabitants. Incidence was calculated, standardised by age and sex, for infection, hospitalisation and deaths based on average gross income per household (AGI) for the census tracts in each urban area. Association studied using a Poisson Bayesian regression model with random effects for spatial smoothing. Results: There were 140,743 cases of COVID-19, of which 12,585 were hospitalised and 2,255 died. 95.2% of cases were attributed to the second and third waves, which were jointly analysed. We observed a protective effect of income for infection in 3/12 cities. Almeria had the largest protective effect (smoothed relative risk (SRR) = 0.84 (0.75-0.94 CI 95%). This relationship reappeared with greater magnitude in 10/12 cities for hospitalisation, lowest risk in Algeciras SRR = 0.41 (0.29-0.56). The pattern was repeated for deaths in all urban areas and reached statistical significance in 8 cities. Lowest risk in Dos Hermanas SRR = 0.35 (0.15-0.81). Conclusions: Income inequalities by geographical area were found in the incidence of COVID-19. The strengths of the association increased when analysing the severe outcomes of hospitalisations and, above all, deaths.This work was supported by the Carlos III Health Institute (ISCIII) under the project Fundación BBVA.DGVI 256/22 "COVID 19 Urban Atlas Spain".S