Original and Cumulative Prospect Theory: A Discussion of Empirical Differences

This paper discusses di€erences between prospect theory and cumulative prospect theory. It shows that cumulative prospect theory is not merely a formal correction of some theoretical problems in prospect theory, but it also gives di€erent predictions. Some experiments by Lola Lopes are re-analyzed, and are demonstrated to favor cumulative prospect theory over prospect theory. It turns out that the mathematical form of cumulative prospect theory is well suited for modeling the psychological phenomenon of diminishing sensitivity. *c 1997 by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. KEY WORD

Evaluation of a coupled hydrodynamic-closed ecological cycle approach for modelling dissolved oxygen in surface waters

The description of intertwined ecological processes in surface waters requires a holistic approach that accounts for spatially distributed hydrological/water quality processes. This study describes a new approach to model dissolved oxygen (DO) based on linked hydrodynamic and closed nutrient cycle ecological models. Long term datasets from the River Dommel (Netherlands) are used to determine: 1) if this methodology is suitable for modelling DO concentrations, 2) the model sensitivity to various levels of nutrients input, and 3) the DO production and consumption processes and their response to nutrient input changes. Results show that seasonal dynamics of DO are well quantified at long timescales; the sensitivity of DO to different pollutant sources exhibits significant seasonal variation and the largest influences on DO are aeration and mineralization of organic material. The approach demonstrates an ability to consider the impacts of nutrient input and long term vegetation maintenance on ecological quality

Machine learning based natural language processing of radiology reports in orthopaedic trauma

OBJECTIVES: To compare different Machine Learning (ML) Natural Language Processing (NLP) methods to classify radiology reports in orthopaedic trauma for the presence of injuries. Assessing NLP performance is a prerequisite for downstream tasks and therefore of importance from a clinical perspective (avoiding missed injuries, quality check, insight in diagnostic yield) as well as from a research perspective (identification of patient cohorts, annotation of radiographs). METHODS: Datasets of Dutch radiology reports of injured extremities (n = 2469, 33% fractures) and chest radiographs (n = 799, 20% pneumothorax) were collected in two different hospitals and labeled by radiologists and trauma surgeons for the presence or absence of injuries. NLP classification was applied and optimized by testing different preprocessing steps and different classifiers (Rule-based, ML, and Bidirectional Encoder Representations from Transformers (BERT)). Performance was assessed by F1-score, AUC, sensitivity, specificity and accuracy. RESULTS: The deep learning based BERT model outperforms all other classification methods which were assessed. The model achieved an F1-score of (95 ± 2)% and accuracy of (96 ± 1)% on a dataset of simple reports (n= 2469), and an F1 of (83 ± 7)% with accuracy (93 ± 2)% on a dataset of complex reports (n= 799). CONCLUSION: BERT NLP outperforms traditional ML and rule-base classifiers when applied to Dutch radiology reports in orthopaedic trauma

Exploring social patterns of participation in university-entrance level mathematics in England

In recent years in England there has been considerable attention given to a range of apparent crises in mathematics education, one of which has been the long term decline of participation in university-entrance level (Advanced or A) mathematics. Given the negative impact upon mathematics participation of Curriculum 2000, together with the government’s emphasis on Science Technology Engineering and Mathematics (STEM) subjects, the political intent to increase participation in Advanced level mathematics is clear. This paper uses the National Pupil Database (NPD) to develop a descriptive statistical account of how completion of Advanced level mathematics varies along the social axes of SES, ethnicity and gender. The process of working with the NPD is discussed in some depth in order to clarify the processes involved in this type of quantitative analysis and to illustrate how this analysis can be used to raise questions about who is doing what mathematics in the post-16 age-range

Quality Changes and Freezing Time Prediction During Freezing and Thawing of Ginger

Effects of different freezing rates and four different thawing methods on chemical composition, microstructure, and color of ginger were investigated. Computer simulation for predicting the freezing time of cylindrical ginger for two different freezing methods (slow and fast) was done using ANSYS® Multiphysics. Different freezing rates (slow and fast) and thawing methods significantly (P \u3c 0.05) affected the color and composition of essential oil in ginger. Fresh ginger was found to contain 3.60% gingerol and 18.30% zingerone. A maximum yield of 7.43% gingerol was obtained when slow frozen gingers when thawed by infrared method. Maximum zingerone content of 38.30% was achieved by thawing slow frozen gingers using infrared-microwave method. Microscopic examination revealed that structural damage was more pronounced in slow frozen gingers than fast frozen gingers. Simulated freezing curves were in good agreement with experimental measurements (r = 0.97 for slow freezing and r = 0.92 for fast freezing). Slow freezing damaged ginger’s cellular structure. Data obtained will be helpful in selecting appropriate thawing method to increase desirable essential oil components in ginger. Computer simulation for predicting freezing time may help in developing proper storage system of ginger

Accuracy of Patient-Specific Drilling Guides in Acetabular Fracture Surgery:A Human Cadaver Study

Due to the complex anatomical shape of the pelvis, screw placement can be challenging in acetabular fracture surgery. This study aims to assess the accuracy of screw placement using patient-specific surgical drilling guides applied to pre-contoured conventional implants in acetabular fracture surgery. CT scans were made of four human cadavers to create 3D models of each (unfractured) pelvis. Implants were pre-contoured on 3D printed pelvic models and optically scanned. Following virtual preoperative planning, surgical drilling guides were designed to fit on top of the implant and were 3D printed. The differences between the pre-planned and actual screw directions (degrees) and screw entry points (mm) were assessed from the pre- and postoperative CT-scans. The median difference between the planned and actual screw direction was 5.9° (IQR: 4–8°) for the in-plate screws and 7.6° (IQR: 6–10°) for the infra-acetabular and column screws. The median entry point differences were 3.6 (IQR: 2–5) mm for the in-plate screws and 2.6 (IQR: 2–3) mm for the infra-acetabular and column screws. No screws penetrated into the hip joint or caused soft tissue injuries. Three-dimensional preoperative planning in combination with surgical guides that envelope pre-contoured conventional implants result in accurate screw placement during acetabular fracture surgery

Does ligament balancing technique affect kinematics in rotating platform, PCL retaining knee arthroplasties?: A prospective randomized study

The goal of this prospective, randomized, blinded trial was to determine if ligament balancing techniques for rotating platform TKA affect postoperative knee kinematics. Sixteen patients with unilateral rotating platform TKA consented to participate in this institutional review board approved study. Eight patients were randomly selected to receive ligament balancing with an instrumented joint spreader device and eight patients received ligament balancing using fixed thickness spacer blocks. A single plane shape matching technique was used for kinematic analysis of static deep knee flexion and dynamic stair activities. There were no differences in knee kinematics between groups during static deep flexion activities. The spreader group demonstrated kinematics more similar to the normal knee during the ascending phase of the dynamic stair activity. Knee kinematics in static knee flexion were unaffected by ligament balancing technique, while knees balanced with the spreader demonstrated a medial pivot motion pattern during stair ascent. This medial pivot motion pattern may improve long-term results by more closely replicating normal knee kinematics

APOE interacts with age to modify rate of decline in cognitive and brain changes in Alzheimer's disease

Abstract Objective: To determine (1) whether age-standardized cognitive declines and brain morphometric change differ between Young-Old patients with Alzheimer's disease (YOAD) and Very-Old patients with Alzheimer's disease (VOAD), and (2) whether the apolipoprotein E (APOE) genotype modifies these neuropsychological and morphometric changes. Methods: Baseline and 12-month follow-up neuropsychological and morphometric measures were examined for healthy control subjects and patients with AD. The two AD groups were divided further into subgroups on the basis of the presence of at least one APOE ε4 allele. Results: The YOAD group showed more severe deficits and steeper declines in cognition than the VOAD group. Moreover, the presence of an APOE ε4 allele had a more deleterious effect on the YOAD group than the VOAD group on cognition and brain structure both cross-sectionally and longitudinally. Conclusions: Results underscore the importance of integrating an individual's age and genetic susceptibility-and their interaction-when examining neuropsychological and neuroimaging changes in the early stages of Alzheimer's disease

Competing risks survival analysis applied to data from the Australian Orthopaedic Association National Joint Replacement Registry

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: The Kaplan-Meier (KM) method is often used in the analysis of arthroplasty registry data to estimate the probability of revision after a primary procedure. In the presence of a competing risk such as death, KM is known to overestimate the probability of revision. We investigated the degree to which the risk of revision is overestimated in registry data. PATIENTS AND METHODS: We compared KM estimates of risk of revision with the cumulative incidence function (CIF), which takes account of death as a competing risk. We considered revision by (1) prosthesis type in subjects aged 75–84 years with fractured neck of femur (FNOF), (2) cement use in monoblock prostheses for FNOF, and (3) age group in patients undergoing total hip arthroplasty (THA) for osteoarthritis (OA). RESULTS: In 5,802 subjects aged 75–84 years with a monoblock prosthesis for FNOF, the estimated risk of revision at 5 years was 6.3% by KM and 4.3% by CIF, a relative difference (RD) of 46%. In 9,821 subjects of all ages receiving an Austin Moore (non-cemented) prosthesis for FNOF, the RD at 5 years was 52% and for 3,116 subjects with a Thompson (cemented) prosthesis, the RD was 79%. In 44,365 subjects with a THA for OA who were less than 70 years old, the RD was just 1.4%; for 47,430 subjects > 70 years of age, the RD was 4.6% at 5 years. INTERPRETATION: The Kaplan-Meier method substantially overestimated the risk of revision compared to estimates using competing risk methods when the risk of death was high. The bias increased with time as the incidence of the competing risk of death increased. Registries should adopt methods of analysis appropriate to the nature of their data.Marianne H. Gillam, Philip Ryan, Stephen E. Graves, Lisa N. Miller, Richard N. de Steiger and Amy Salte

The political dimension: added value for cross-cultural analysis:Nozawa and Smits, two CEO's and their public statements

Work-related cultural differences, which were familiarized by scholars such as Hall and Hofstede, offer important concepts to help us understand various forms of cooperation and communication. However, the predominant focus of cultural analysis on collectivistic harmony prevents us from gaining an understanding of strategy and conflict. In an attempt to grasp how conflicts are handled, a political analysis can provide new insights. This is illustrated by a comparative study of two CEOs who gave public statements concerning management failure: Shouhei Nozawa of Yamaichi and Paul Smits of KPN. Their statements were strikingly different in several ways, but the classical insights of cross-cultural analysis can only partly explain the differences. This is where political analysis comes in, focusing on interest relationships, responsibilities and virtues, tactics and strategy