Export growth and diversification : the case of Peru

The rapid growth of exports since the early 1990s is a central feature in the extraordinary rise of Peru's economy in recent years. This study puts a lens on this export growth episode, with special attention to two issues. The first one is the role of international price levels as well as export volumes in explaining this growth. The second one is whether Peru has seen a diversification of its exports during this growth episode. The empirical analysis finds that although the increase in international mineral prices has exerted a significant impact in recent years, much of the growth of Peru's export revenues has also been related to an increase in volumes. This finding applies to traditional and non- traditional exports, although the importance of volumes is more predominant for the latter. The analysis does not reveal a trend toward greater diversification of Peru's exports since 1993. On the contrary, some of the evidence suggests that the rises in price and volumes in the mining components could be leading to greater concentration. Nonetheless, there is a clear trend toward diversification among non-traditional exports due to the significant emergence of new export products in recent years.Economic Theory&Research,Achieving Shared Growth,Agribusiness&Markets,Markets and Market Access,Tax Law

Heterodox Central Banking

This paper discusses theoretical and practical aspects of the various unconventional central bank policies during the 2008-2009 crisis. In terms of theory, we first discuss the role of credibility in the attainment of inflationary goals once the nominal interest rate is at a lower bound, paying particular attention to the role of the central bank’s balance sheet. Additionally, we present a model which has at its core a financial imperfection that highlights the role of bank’s capital as well as the relevance of alternative credit policies that can be used to deal with financial distress. On the other hand, we review evidence regarding the recent experience. We discuss the timing and type of observed unconventional policies. We then explore alternative measures to assess the stance of monetary policy in a situation when the policy rate has reached its lower bound. Finally, we present some descriptive evidence on the effect of the applied policies on the shape of the yield curve and the lending-deposit spread.

Performance evaluation of an online load change detection algorithm

Personal use of this material is permitted. Permission from IEEE must be obtained for all other uses, in any current or future media, including reprinting/republishing this material for advertising or promotional purposes, creating new collective works, for resale or redistribution to servers or lists, or reuse of any copyrighted component of this work in other works. F. Mata, and J. Aracil, "Performance evaluation of an online load change detection algorithm", in 2nd International Conference on Computer and Automation Engineering, ICCAE 2010. Volume 1, p. 261 - 266In this paper we evaluate an online load change detection algorithm, aimed to identify changes in traffic loads when monitoring Internet links. This online change detector was first introduced in [1] and produces an alert when a sustained and statistically significant change has been detected. Then, the network manager verifies the change and takes action if the change is truly relevant. We show that the behavior of the algorithm with synthetically generated time series is appropriate, and the obtained results are as expected.The authors would like to acknowledge the support of the Spanish Ministerio de Ciencia e Innovación (MICINN) to this work under the FPU fellowship program

Segmentación geométrica de la ciudad de Quito por medio de un método de aprendizaje no supervisado

This document contains an application of data analysis methods on urbanism and Geographic Information Systems. It aims to find shape and density patterns in the map of Quito, starting from the assumption that there are some similarities between the city blocks in terms of its geometric features and its spatial location. The Hierarchical Agglomerative and DBSCAN algorithms have been considered as analysis tools. Since the result is a new partition of the city, in which the new neighborhoods or sectors are not defined in an arbitrary way, we open the door for rethinking urban planning.El presente documento recoge una aplicación de métodos de análisis de datos en urbanismo y Sistemas de Información Geográfica. Se apunta a encontrar patrones de forma y densidad en el mapa de Quito, partiendo del supuesto de que existen similitudes entre las manzanas de la urbe en términos de sus atributos geométricos y su ubicación espacial. Los algoritmos Jerárquico Aglomerativo y DBSCAN han sido considerados como herramientas de análisis. Siendo el resultado una nueva segmentación de la ciudad, en la cual los nuevos barrios o sectores no están definidos de manera arbitraria, se abre la puerta a un replanteamiento de la planificación urbana

The evolution of the brain, the human nature of cortical circuits and intellectual creativity

The tremendous expansion and the differentiation of the neocortex constitute two major events in the evolution of the mammalian brain. The increase in size and complexity of our brains opened the way to a spectacular development of cognitive and mental skills. This expansion during evolution facilitated the addition of microcircuits with a similar basic structure, which increased the complexity of the human brain and contributed to its uniqueness. However, fundamental differences even exist between distinct mammalian species. Here, we shall discuss the issue of our humanity from a neurobiological and historical perspective

Sistema de Compensaciones Industriales: Off-Set

This paper presents an analysis regarding the implementation of the Off-Set agreements for industrial, technological and commercial compensation to a hypothetical case in Ecuador. The purpose of it, apart from briefly reviewing the circumstances under which these types of agreements emerged historically in neighboring countries, is to demonstrate the feasibility of the mechanism through a specific study case. In this dissertation, the results point towards the depiction of the Ecuadorian State development possibilities through the access to new industries, in order to present a way of improving the trade balance in medium and long terms. In a way, the system makes reference to a zero debt mechanism in which the seller of military products is also responsible for all the investments for the implementation of a strategic industry for the beneficiary country, as well as those concerning its own military products. This results in the materialization of such industrial compensation mechanism, which will allow Ecuador after to stand in a better position compared to the one it had before applying an Off-Set system. In return, it will have obtained a new industry for the country, and new military hardware, without the use of its own resources.Este documento presenta un análisis respecto de la aplicación de los acuerdos Off-Set de compensación industrial, comercial y tecnológica para un caso hipotético dentro del Ecuador. La finalidad del mismo, a más de revisar brevemente las circunstancias bajo las cuales surgieron dichos tipos de acuerdos históricamente en países vecinos, es plasmar la viabilidad del mecanismo mediante un caso puntual de estudio. Se presentan en esta disertación resultados que apuntan hacia el desarrollo del Estado Ecuatoriano a través del acceso de nuevas industrias, con el fin de presentar una vía para la mejora de la balanza comercial al mediano y largo plazo. Se habla de un sistema de financiamiento con deuda cero, en el cual la parte vendedora de productos bélicos se encarga también de la totalidad de las inversiones de un proyecto de implementación de industrias estratégicas para el país, así como con las concernientes a su propio armamento. Esto resulta en la materialización de un mecanismo de compensación industrial, permitiendo así al Ecuador al cabo del proyecto, quedar en una mejor posición comparativa frente a la que se encontraba antes de aplicar el sistema Off-Set, habiendo conseguido una nueva industria para el país y el armamento militar, sin haber utilizado sus recursos

Geopolítica, discusiones y perspectivas Latinoamericanas

Las construcciones teóricas sobre la disciplina de la geopolítica contemporánea en América Latina suscitan realizar un análisis crítico sobre las relaciones entre los Estados, observando el ejercicio del poder, la dominación, movimientos sociales, grupos de presión e interés que se disputan el poder político y el uso de los recursos, derivados de fenómenos como la globalización, el imperialismo, el modelo neoliberal y el desarrollismo que atentan contra la soberanía, la justicia y el sentido de lo público, el ejercicio de la ciudadanía Latinoamericana y concretamente en Colombia, tomando en cuenta el análisis del periodo de 1990-2000 en donde se ejecutan gran parte de los planes de ajustes estructurales en este país. El objetivo del presente artículo consiste en realizar una crítica a estos fenómenos, relacionándolo con el abordaje epistémico proveniente de la geopolítica crítica, en donde se enfatice la importancia de la ciudadanía como garante y defensora de lo público

Empirical distributions of stock returns: european securities markets, 1990-95

The assumption that daily stock returns are normally distributed has long been disputed by the data. In this article we test (and clearly reject) the normality assumption using time series of daily stock returns for thirteen European securities markets. More importantly, we fit to the data four alternative specifications, find overall support for the scaled-t distribution (and partial support for a mixture of two Normal distributions), and quantify the magnitude of the error that stems from predicting the probability of obtaining returns in specified intervals by using the Normal distribution. We conclude by arguing that normality may be a plausible assumption for monthly (but not for daily) stock returns