Modeling and Measuring Scale Attraction Effects: An Application to Charitable Donations

Charities seeking donations typically employ an “appeals scale,” a roster of suggested amounts presented to potential donors, along with an “Other” category. Yet little is known about how the amounts comprising appeals scales affect whether a donation is made and, if so, jointly exert “pull” on its magnitude. Availing of multi-year panel data and a field experiment, we develop a model accounting for individual level donation incidence, amount, and appeals scale attraction effects. The model incorporates heterogeneity across donors in both upward and downward scale point attraction, as well as in donation patterns (e.g., seasonality), and accommodates multiple operationalizations of internal and external referents to summarize the effects of prior donation history and scale points, respectively. Overall results suggest that scale points do exert substantial attraction effects; that these vary markedly across donors; that they are in fact referent-based effects; that donors are more easily persuaded to give less than more; and that, while all scale points exert pull, influence wanes with distance. The modeling framework applies not only in donation contexts, but whenever an ordered categorical scale is used to collect data regarding an underlying latent response.https://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/142868/1/1380_Feinberg.pd

Mediation analysis and categorical variables: Some further frontiers

Iacobucci (2012) provides a conceptually appealing, readily implemented measure to assess mediation for a far wider range of data type combinations than traditional OLS‐based analyses permit. Here, we consider potential applications and extensions along several lines, particularly in terms of random utility models, simulation‐based estimation, and potential nonlinearities, as well as some methodological and cultural impediments.Peer Reviewedhttps://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/141429/1/jcpy595.pd

Reality Check: Combining Survey and Market Data to Estimate the Importance of Product Attributes

Discrete choice models estimated using hypothetical choices made in a survey setting (i.e., choice experiments) are widely used to estimate the importance of product attributes in order to make product design and marketing mix decisions. Choice experiments allow the researcher to estimate preferences for product features that do not yet exist in the market. However, parameters estimated from experimental data often show marked inconsistencies with those inferred from the market, reducing their usefulness in forecasting and decision making. We propose an approach for combining choice-based conjoint data with individual-level purchase data to produce estimates that are more consistent with the market. Unlike prior approaches for calibrating conjoint models so that they correctly predict aggregate market shares for a “baseline” market, the proposed approach is designed to produce parameters that are more consistent with those that can be inferred from individual-level market data. The proposed method relies on a new general framework for combining two or more sources of individual-level choice data to estimate a hierarchical discrete choice model. Past approaches to combining choice data assume that the population mean for the parameters is the same across both data sets and require that data sets are sampled from the same population. In contrast, we incorporate in the model individual characteristic variables, and assert only that the mapping between individuals\u27 characteristics and their preferences is the same across the data sets. This allows the model to be applied even if the sample of individuals observed in each data set is not representative of the population as a whole, so long as appropriate product-use variables are collected that can explain the systematic deviations between them. The framework also explicitly incorporates a model for the individual characteristics, which allows us to use Bayesian missing-data techniques to handle the situation where each data set contains different demographic variables. This makes the method useful in practice for a wide range of existing market and conjoint data sets. We apply the method to a set of conjoint and market data for minivan choice and find that the proposed method predicts holdout market choices better than a model estimated from conjoint data alone or a model that does not include demographic variables

Modeling parametric evolution in a random utility framework

Abstract Random Utility models have become standard econometric tools, allowing parameter inference for individual-level categorical choice data. Such models typically presume that changes in observed choices over time can be attributed to changes in either covariates or unobservables. We study how choice dynamics can be captured more faithfully by additionally modeling temporal changes in parameters directly, using a vector autoregressive process and Bayesian estimation. This approach offers a number of advantages for theorists and practitioners, including improved forecasts, prediction of long-run parameter levels, and correction for potential aggregation biases. We illustrate the method using choices for a common supermarket good, where we find strong support for parameter dynamics.

The Gravitational Demise of Cold Degenerate Stars

We consider the long term fate and evolution of cold degenerate stars under the action of gravity alone. Although such stars cannot emit radiation through the Hawking mechanism, the wave function of the star will contain a small admixture of black hole states. These black hole states will emit radiation and hence the star can lose its mass energy in the long term. We discuss the allowed range of possible degenerate stellar evolution within this framework.Comment: LaTeX, 18 pages, one figure, accepted to Physical Review

Genetic effects on gene expression across human tissues

Characterization of the molecular function of the human genome and its variation across individuals is essential for identifying the cellular mechanisms that underlie human genetic traits and diseases. The Genotype-Tissue Expression (GTEx) project aims to characterize variation in gene expression levels across individuals and diverse tissues of the human body, many of which are not easily accessible. Here we describe genetic effects on gene expression levels across 44 human tissues. We find that local genetic variation affects gene expression levels for the majority of genes, and we further identify inter-chromosomal genetic effects for 93 genes and 112 loci. On the basis of the identified genetic effects, we characterize patterns of tissue specificity, compare local and distal effects, and evaluate the functional properties of the genetic effects. We also demonstrate that multi-tissue, multi-individual data can be used to identify genes and pathways affected by human disease-associated variation, enabling a mechanistic interpretation of gene regulation and the genetic basis of diseas

The James Webb Space Telescope Mission

Twenty-six years ago a small committee report, building on earlier studies, expounded a compelling and poetic vision for the future of astronomy, calling for an infrared-optimized space telescope with an aperture of at least $4m$. With the support of their governments in the US, Europe, and Canada, 20,000 people realized that vision as the $6.5m$ James Webb Space Telescope. A generation of astronomers will celebrate their accomplishments for the life of the mission, potentially as long as 20 years, and beyond. This report and the scientific discoveries that follow are extended thank-you notes to the 20,000 team members. The telescope is working perfectly, with much better image quality than expected. In this and accompanying papers, we give a brief history, describe the observatory, outline its objectives and current observing program, and discuss the inventions and people who made it possible. We cite detailed reports on the design and the measured performance on orbit.Comment: Accepted by PASP for the special issue on The James Webb Space Telescope Overview, 29 pages, 4 figure

New infant cranium from the African Miocene sheds light on ape evolution

The evolutionary history of extant hominoids (humans and apes) remains poorly understood. The African fossil record during the crucial time period, the Miocene epoch, largely comprises isolated jaws and teeth, and little is known about ape cranial evolution. Here we report on the, to our knowledge, most complete fossil ape cranium yet described, recovered from the 13 million-year-old Middle Miocene site of Napudet, Kenya. The infant specimen, KNM-NP 59050, is assigned to a new species of Nyanzapithecus on the basis of its unerupted permanent teeth, visualized by synchrotron imaging. Its ear canal has a fully ossified tubular ectotympanic, a derived feature linking the species with crown catarrhines. Although it resembles some hylobatids in aspects of its morphology and dental development, it possesses no definitive hylobatid synapomorphies. The combined evidence suggests that nyanzapithecines were stem hominoids close to the origin of extant apes, and that hylobatid-like facial features evolved multiple times during catarrhine evolution

The Science Performance of JWST as Characterized in Commissioning

This paper characterizes the actual science performance of the James Webb Space Telescope (JWST), as determined from the six month commissioning period. We summarize the performance of the spacecraft, telescope, science instruments, and ground system, with an emphasis on differences from pre-launch expectations. Commissioning has made clear that JWST is fully capable of achieving the discoveries for which it was built. Moreover, almost across the board, the science performance of JWST is better than expected; in most cases, JWST will go deeper faster than expected. The telescope and instrument suite have demonstrated the sensitivity, stability, image quality, and spectral range that are necessary to transform our understanding of the cosmos through observations spanning from near-earth asteroids to the most distant galaxies.Comment: 5th version as accepted to PASP; 31 pages, 18 figures; https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1538-3873/acb29