Hierarchical Bayesian Detection Algorithm for Early-Universe Relics in the Cosmic Microwave Background

A number of theoretically well-motivated additions to the standard cosmological model predict weak signatures in the form of spatially localized sources embedded in the cosmic microwave background (CMB) fluctuations. We present a hierarchical Bayesian statistical formalism and a complete data analysis pipeline for testing such scenarios. We derive an accurate approximation to the full posterior probability distribution over the parameters defining any theory that predicts sources embedded in the CMB, and perform an extensive set of tests in order to establish its validity. The approximation is implemented using a modular algorithm, designed to avoid a posteriori selection effects, which combines a candidate-detection stage with a full Bayesian model-selection and parameter-estimation analysis. We apply this pipeline to theories that predict cosmic textures and bubble collisions, extending previous analyses by using: (1) adaptive-resolution techniques, allowing us to probe features of arbitrary size, and (2) optimal filters, which provide the best possible sensitivity for detecting candidate signatures. We conclude that the WMAP 7-year data do not favor the addition of either cosmic textures or bubble collisions to the standard cosmological model, and place robust constraints on the predicted number of such sources. The expected numbers of bubble collisions and cosmic textures on the CMB sky within our detection thresholds are constrained to be fewer than 4.0 and 5.2 at 95% confidence, respectively.Comment: 34 pages, 18 figures. v3: corrected very minor typos to match published versio

Raising argument strength using negative evidence: A constraint on models of induction

Both intuitively, and according to similarity-based theories of induction, relevant evidence raises argument strength when it is positive and lowers it when it is negative. In three experiments, we tested the hypothesis that argument strength can actually increase when negative evidence is introduced. Two kinds of argument were compared through forced choice or sequential evaluation: single positive arguments (e.g., “Shostakovich’s music causes alpha waves in the brain; therefore, Bach’s music causes alpha waves in the brain”) and double mixed arguments (e.g., “Shostakovich’s music causes alpha waves in the brain, X’s music DOES NOT; therefore, Bach’s music causes alpha waves in the brain”). Negative evidence in the second premise lowered credence when it applied to an item X from the same subcategory (e.g., Haydn) and raised it when it applied to a different subcategory (e.g., AC/DC). The results constitute a new constraint on models of induction

Wavelet-Bayesian inference of cosmic strings embedded in the cosmic microwave background

Cosmic strings are a well-motivated extension to the standard cosmological model and could induce a subdominant component in the anisotropies of the cosmic microwave background (CMB), in addition to the standard inflationary component. The detection of strings, while observationally challenging, would provide a direct probe of physics at very high energy scales. We develop a new framework for cosmic string inference, constructing a Bayesian analysis in wavelet space where the string-induced CMB component has distinct statistical properties to the standard inflationary component. Our wavelet-Bayesian framework provides a principled approach to compute the posterior distribution of the string tension $G\mu$ and the Bayesian evidence ratio comparing the string model to the standard inflationary model. Furthermore, we present a technique to recover an estimate of any string-induced CMB map embedded in observational data. Using Planck-like simulations we demonstrate the application of our framework and evaluate its performance. The method is sensitive to $G\mu \sim 5 \times 10^{-7}$ for Nambu-Goto string simulations that include an integrated Sachs-Wolfe (ISW) contribution only and do not include any recombination effects, before any parameters of the analysis are optimised. The sensitivity of the method compares favourably with other techniques applied to the same simulations.Comment: 18 pages, 14 figures, minor changes to match version accepted by MNRA

A comparison of transient elastography with acoustic radiation force impulse elastography for the assessment of liver health in patients with chronic hepatitis C: Baseline results from the TRACER study

BACKGROUND: Liver stiffness measurements can be used to assess liver fibrosis and can be acquired by transient elastography using FibroScan® and with Acoustic Radiation Force Impulse imaging. The study aimed to establish liver stiffness measurement scores using FibroScan® and Acoustic Radiation Force Impulse in a chronic hepatitis C cohort and to explore the correlation and agreement between the scores and the factors influencing agreement. METHODS: Patients had liver stiffness measurements acquired with FibroScan® (right lobe of liver) and Acoustic Radiation Force Impulse (right and left lobe of liver). We used Spearman’s correlation to explore the relationship between FibroScan® and Acoustic Radiation Force Impulse scores. A Bland–Altman plot was used to evaluate bias between the mean percentage differences of FibroScan® and Acoustic Radiation Force Impulse scores. Univariable and multivariable analyses were used to assess how factors such as body mass index, age and gender influenced the agreement between liver stiffness measurements. RESULTS: Bland-Altman showed the average (95% CI) percentage difference between FibroScan® and Acoustic Radiation Force Impulse scores was 27.5% (17.8, 37.2), p < 0.001. There was a negative correlation between the average and percentage difference of the FibroScan® and Acoustic Radiation Force Impulse scores (r (95% CI) = −0.41 (−0.57, −0.21), p < 0.001), thus showing that percentage difference gets smaller for greater FibroScan® and Acoustic Radiation Force Impulse scores. Body mass index was the biggest influencing factor on differences between FibroScan® and Acoustic Radiation Force Impulse (r = 0.12 (0.01, 0.23), p = 0.05). Acoustic Radiation Force Impulse scores at segment 5/8 and the left lobe showed good correlation (r (95% CI) = 0.83 (0.75, 0.89), p < 0.001). CONCLUSION: FibroScan® and Acoustic Radiation Force Impulse had similar predictive values for the assessment of liver stiffness in patients with chronic hepatitis C infection; however, the level of agreement varied across lower and higher scores

Criminal narrative experience: relating emotions to offence narrative roles during crime commission

A neglected area of research within criminality has been that of the experience of the offence for the offender. The present study investigates the emotions and narrative roles that are experienced by an offender while committing a broad range of crimes and proposes a model of Criminal Narrative Experience (CNE). Hypotheses were derived from the Circumplex of Emotions (Russell, 1997), Frye (1957), Narrative Theory (McAdams, 1988) and its link with Investigative Psychology (Canter, 1994). The analysis was based on 120 cases. Convicted for a variety of crimes, incarcerated criminals were interviewed and the data were subjected to Smallest Space Analysis (SSA). Four themes of Criminal Narrative Experience (CNE) were identified: Elated Hero, Calm Professional, Distressed Revenger and Depressed Victim in line with the recent theoretical framework posited for Narrative Offence Roles (Youngs & Canter, 2012). The theoretical implications for understanding crime on the basis of the Criminal Narrative Experience (CNE) as well as practical implications are discussed

Liesegang patterns: Effect of dissociation of the invading electrolyte

The effect of dissociation of the invading electrolyte on the formation of Liesegang bands is investigated. We find, using organic compounds with known dissociation constants, that the spacing coefficient, 1+p, that characterizes the position of the n-th band as x_n ~ (1+p)^n, decreases with increasing dissociation constant, K_d. Theoretical arguments are developed to explain these experimental findings and to calculate explicitly the K_d dependence of 1+p.Comment: RevTex, 8 pages, 3 eps figure

Attachment style, assertive communication, and safer-sex behavior

This research tested the proposition that the effect of attachment security on safer-sex practice may be mediated by communication patterns. One hundred eighty-five undergraduate students completed questionnaire measures of attachment, assertiveness, and attitudes to communication about AIDS. Eight weeks later, they reported on their practice of safer sex in the period since the first testing session. Hierarchical regressions showed that at Step 1, anxiety about relationships (a measure of insecure attachment) was associated with less safer-sex practice, for all outcome measures. Attitudes to communication about AIDS added to the prediction of general reports of safer-sex practice: in line with the mediational model, anxiety about relationships became unimportant as a predictor when communication variables were included. Communication variables failed to add to the prediction of safer sex on the most recent encounter, and both anxiety about relationships and attitudes to communication about AIDS predicted condom use. Some gender differences in patterns of prediction were noted. The results are discussed in terms of attachment style and its links with the negotiation of sexual practice and relationship issues

Significance of root hairs for plant performance under contrasting field conditions and water deficit

Background and Aims Previous laboratory studies have suggested selection for root hair traits in future crop breeding to improve resource use efficiency and stress tolerance. However, data on the interplay between root hairs and open-field systems, under contrasting soils and climate conditions, are limited. As such, this study aims to experimentally elucidate some of the impacts that root hairs have on plant performance on a field scale. Methods A field experiment was set up in Scotland for two consecutive years, under contrasting climate conditions and different soil textures (i.e. clay loam vs. sandy loam). Five barley (Hordeum vulgare) genotypes exhibiting variation in root hair length and density were used in the study. Root hair length, density and rhizosheath weight were measured at several growth stages, as well as shoot biomass, plant water status, shoot phosphorus (P) accumulation and grain yield. Key Results Measurements of root hair density, length and its correlation with rhizosheath weight highlighted trait robustness in the field under variable environmental conditions, although significant variations were found between soil textures as the growing season progressed. Root hairs did not confer a notable advantage to barley under optimal conditions, but under soil water deficit root hairs enhanced plant water status and stress tolerance resulting in a less negative leaf water potential and lower leaf abscisic acid concentration, while promoting shoot P accumulation. Furthermore, the presence of root hairs did not decrease yield under optimal conditions, while root hairs enhanced yield stability under drought. Conclusions Selecting for beneficial root hair traits can enhance yield stability without diminishing yield potential, overcoming the breeder’s dilemma of trying to simultaneously enhance both productivity and resilience. Therefore, the maintenance or enhancement of root hairs can represent a key trait for breeding the next generation of crops for improved drought tolerance in relation to climate change