59 research outputs found
Climate change is an important predictor of extinction risk on macroevolutionary timescales
Anthropogenic climate change is increasing rapidly and already impacting biodiversity. Despite the importance for future projections, understanding of the underlying mechanisms by which climate mediates extinction remains limited. We present an integrated approach examining the role of intrinsic traits vs. extrinsic climate change in mediating extinction risk for marine invertebrates over the past 485 million years. We found that a combination of physiological traits and the magnitude of climate change are necessary to explain marine invertebrate extinction patterns. Our results suggest that taxa previously identified as extinction resistant may still succumb to extinction if the magnitude of climate change is great enough
Climatic constraints on the biogeographic history of Mesozoic dinosaurs
Dinosaurs dominated Mesozoic terrestrial ecosystems globally. However, whereas a pole-to-pole geographic distribution characterized ornithischians and theropods, sauropods were restricted to lower latitudes. Here, we evaluate the role of climate in shaping these biogeographic patterns through the JurassicâCretaceous (201â66 million years ago), combining dinosaur fossil occurrences, past climate data from Earth System models, and habitat suitability modelling. Results show that uniquely among dinosaurs, sauropods occupied climatic niches characterised by high temperatures and strongly bounded by minimum cold temperatures. This constrained the distribution and dispersal pathways of sauropods to tropical areas, excluding them from latitudinal extremes, especially in the Northern Hemisphere. The greater availability of suitable habitat in the southern continents, particularly in the Late Cretaceous, might be key to explaining the high diversity of sauropods there, relative to northern landmasses. Given that ornithischians and theropods show a flattened or bimodal latitudinal biodiversity gradient, with peaks at higher latitudes, the closer correspondence of sauropods to a subtropical concentration could hint at fundamental thermophysiological differences to the other two clades
Climate change is an important predictor of extinction risk on macroevolutionary timescales
Anthropogenic climate change is increasing rapidly and already impacting biodiversity. Despite its importance in future projections, understanding of the underlying mechanisms by which climate mediates extinction remains limited. We present an integrated approach examining the role of intrinsic traits versus extrinsic climate change in mediating extinction risk for marine invertebrates over the past 485 million years. We found that a combination of physiological traits and the magnitude of climate change is necessary to explain marine invertebrate extinction patterns. Our results suggest that taxa previously identified as extinction resistant may still succumb to extinction if the magnitude of climate change is great enough.</p
Palaeogeographic controls on climate and proxy interpretation
During the period from approximately 150 to 35?million years ago, the CretaceousâPaleoceneâEocene (CPE), the Earth was in a âgreenhouseâ state with little or no ice at either pole. It was also a period of considerable global change, from the warmest periods of the mid-Cretaceous, to the threshold of icehouse conditions at the end of the Eocene. However, the relative contribution of palaeogeographic change, solar change, and carbon cycle change to these climatic variations is unknown. Here, making use of recent advances in computing power, and a set of unique palaeogeographic maps, we carry out an ensemble of 19 General Circulation Model simulations covering this period, one simulation per stratigraphic stage. By maintaining atmospheric CO2 concentration constant across the simulations, we are able to identify the contribution from palaeogeographic and solar forcing to global change across the CPE, and explore the underlying mechanisms. We find that global mean surface temperature is remarkably constant across the simulations, resulting from a cancellation of opposing trends from solar and palaeogeographic change. However, there are significant modelled variations on a regional scale. The stratigraphic stageâstage transitions which exhibit greatest climatic change are associated with transitions in the mode of ocean circulation, themselves often associated with changes in ocean gateways, and amplified by feedbacks related to emissivity and planetary albedo. We also find some control on global mean temperature from continental area and global mean orography. Our results have important implications for the interpretation of single-site palaeo proxy records. In particular, our results allow the non-CO2 (i.e. palaeogeographic and solar constant) components of proxy records to be removed, leaving a more global component associated with carbon cycle change. This âadjustment factorâ is used to adjust sea surface temperatures, as the deep ocean is not fully equilibrated in the model. The adjustment factor is illustrated for seven key sites in the CPE, and applied to proxy data from Falkland Plateau, and we provide data so that similar adjustments can be made to any site and for any time period within the CPE. Ultimately, this will enable isolation of the CO2-forced climate signal to be extracted from multiple proxy records from around the globe, allowing an evaluation of the regional signals and extent of polar amplification in response to CO2 changes during the CPE. Finally, regions where the adjustment factor is constant throughout the CPE could indicate places where future proxies could be targeted in order to reconstruct the purest CO2-induced temperature change, where the complicating contributions of other processes are minimised. Therefore, combined with other considerations, this work could provide useful information for supporting targets for drilling localities and outcrop studies
The role of temperature in the initiation of the end-Triassic mass extinction
International audienceThe end-Triassic mass extinction coincided with the eruption of the Central Atlantic Magmatic Province, a large igneous province responsible for the massive atmospheric input of potentially climate-altering volatile compounds that is associated with a sharp rise in atmospheric CO2. The extinction mechanism is debated, but both short-term cooling (similar to 10s of years) related to sulfur aerosols and longer-term warming (10,000 yrs) related to CO2 emissions-essentially opposite hypotheses-are suggested triggers. Until now, no temperature records spanning this crucial interval were available to provide a baseline or to differentiate between hypothesized mechanisms. Here, we use clumped-isotope paleothermometry of shallow marine microbialites coupled with climate modeling to reconstruct ocean temperature at the extinction horizon. We find mild to warm ocean temperatures during the extinction event and evidence for repeated temperature swings of similar to 16 degrees C, which we interpret as a signature of strong seasonality. These results constitute the oldest non-biomineralized marine seasonal temperature record. We resolve no apparent evidence for short-term cooling or initial warming across the 1-80kyr of the extinction event our record captures, implying that the initial onset of the biodiversity crisis may necessitate another mechanism
Past East Asian monsoon evolution controlled by paleogeography, not CO2
The East Asian monsoon plays an integral role in human society, yet its geological history and controlling processes are poorly understood. Using a general circulation model and geological data, we explore the drivers controlling the evolution of the monsoon system over the past 150 million years. In contrast to previous work, we find that the monsoon is controlled primarily by changes in paleogeography, with little influence from atmospheric CO2. We associate increased precipitation since the Late Cretaceous with the gradual uplift of the Himalayan-Tibetan region, transitioning from an ITCZ-dominated monsoon to a sea breezeâdominated monsoon. The rising region acted as a mechanical barrier to cold and dry continental air advecting into the region, leading to increasing influence of moist air from the Indian Ocean/South China Sea. We show that, apart from a dry period in the middle Cretaceous, a monsoon system has existed in East Asia since at least the Early Cretaceous
Ecological niche modelling does not support climatically-driven dinosaur diversity decline before the Cretaceous/Paleogene mass extinction
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Limits of oxygen isotope palaeoaltimetry in Tibet
Measurements of stable water isotopes (oxygen and hydrogen) are commonly used to estimate palaeoelevation and quantify past changes in surface height across Tibet. Isotope palaeoaltimetry is often based on simple Rayleigh fractionation of a âparcel of airâ, but must make a considerable number of approximations and assumptions. In this paper, we elaborate on the practicability of oxygen water isotopes in palaeoaltimetry, and evaluate a recent challenge to the palaeoaltimetry community. First, we examine the isotopic composition of oxygen (áș18O) versus altitude relationship in a set of five topographic realisations of Tibet using an isotope-enabled palaeoclimate model for the mid-Eocene, a period where a variety of topographic âupliftâ models have been proposed, and compare it to modern relationships. Second, we investigate whether isotopic composition is a good predictor of more modest changes in topography, such as the introduction of a valley system or uplift of only part of the Tibetan region. The aim of the paper is not to perform a direct comparison to data, but to use the model to further refine knowledge of the strengths and limitations of using oxygen isotopes in palaeoaltimetry. We find that oxygen isotope palaeoaltimetry works surprisingly well, with the exception that it could not identify low elevation valley systems bounded by high elevations because the isotopic composition of the water in the air becomes depleted at the first high elevation that an air parcel passes over and does not recover when it descends into the valley. Hence, isotope-based elevations are biased towards mountain range peaks. Overall, the application of oxygen isotope palaeoaltimetry does have value, but would be further strengthened when employed together with isotope-enabled models. In conjunction with other techniques such as terrestrial thermal lapse rates and energy conservation approaches, over a wide spatial region, a more accurate and fully three-dimension view of complex palaeo-topography is increasingly possible, which will in turn improve the precision of these palaeoaltimeters
Oligocene climate signals and forcings in Eurasia revealed by plant macrofossil and modelling results
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The late Eocene rise of SE Tibet formed an Asian âMediterraneanâ climate
Southeastern (SE) Tibet forms the transition zone between the high interior Tibetan Plateau and the lowlands of southwest China. So understanding the elevation history of SE Tibet, a biodiversity hotspot, enlightens our understanding of the interactions between tectonics, monsoon dynamics and biodiversity. Here we reconstruct the uplift history of the Markam Basin, SE Tibet, during the middleâlate Eocene based on U â Pb dating, plant fossil assemblages, and stable and clumped isotope analyses. Our results suggest that the floor of the Markam Basin was at an elevation of 2.6 ± 0.9 km between 42 Ma and 39 Ma, where the mean annual air temperature (MAAT) was 13.2 ± 2.4 °C. The basin then rose rapidly to 3.8 (+0.6/â0.8) km before 36 Ma. Integrated with existing paleoelevation data, we propose that the high plateau boundary (âŒ3.0 km) of SE Tibet formed during the late Eocene. Numerical climate modeling with realistic paleo-landscapes shows that with the rise of SE Tibet, a Mediterranean-like climate developed in the region characterized by bi-modal precipitation with two wet seasons in boreal spring and autumn. The high topographic relief of SE Tibet, coupled with this distinctive Mediterranean-like climate system, helped develop the high biodiversity of the Hengduan Mountains
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