Surface runoff estimation and prediction regarding LULC and climate dynamics using coupled LTM, optimized ARIMA and distributed-GIS-based SCS-CN models at tropical region

The integration of precipitation intensity and LULC forecasting have played a significant role in prospect surface runoff, allowing for an extension of the lead time that enables a more timely implementation of the control measures. The current study proposes a full-package model to monitor the changes in surface runoff in addition to forecasting the future surface runoff based on LULC and precipitation factors. On one hand, six different LULC classes from Spot-5 satellite image were extracted by object-based Support Vector Machine (SVM) classifier. Conjointly, Land Transformation Model (LTM) was used to detect the LULC pixel changes from 2000 to 2010 as well as predict the 2020. On the other hand, ARIMA model was applied to the analysis and forecasting the rainfall trends. The parameters of ARIMA time series model were calibrated and fitted statistically to minimize the prediction uncertainty by latest Taguchi method. Rainfall and streamflow data recorded in eight nearby gauging stations were engaged to train, forecast, and calibrate the climate hydrological models. Then, distributed-GIS-based SCS-CN model was applied to simulate the maximum probable surface runoff for 2000, 2010, and 2020. The comparison results showed that first, deforestation and urbanization have occurred upon the given time and it is anticipated to increase as well. Second, the amount of rainfall has been nonstationary declined till 2015 and this trend is estimated to continue till 2020. Third, due to the damaging changes in LULC and climate, the surface runoff has also increased till 2010 and it is forecasted to gradually exceed

Menopausal hormone use and ovarian cancer risk: individual participant meta-analysis of 52 epidemiological studies

Background Half the epidemiological studies with information about menopausal hormone therapy and ovarian cancer risk remain unpublished, and some retrospective studies could have been biased by selective participation or recall. We aimed to assess with minimal bias the effects of hormone therapy on ovarian cancer risk. Methods Individual participant datasets from 52 epidemiological studies were analysed centrally. The principal analyses involved the prospective studies (with last hormone therapy use extrapolated forwards for up to 4 years). Sensitivity analyses included the retrospective studies. Adjusted Poisson regressions yielded relative risks (RRs) versus never-use. Findings During prospective follow-up, 12 110 postmenopausal women, 55% (6601) of whom had used hormone therapy, developed ovarian cancer. Among women last recorded as current users, risk was increased even with <5 years of use (RR 1·43, 95% CI 1·31–1·56; p<0·0001). Combining current-or-recent use (any duration, but stopped <5 years before diagnosis) resulted in an RR of 1·37 (95% CI 1·29–1·46; p<0·0001); this risk was similar in European and American prospective studies and for oestrogen-only and oestrogen-progestagen preparations, but differed across the four main tumour types (heterogeneity p<0·0001), being definitely increased only for the two most common types, serous (RR 1·53, 95% CI 1·40–1·66; p<0·0001) and endometrioid (1·42, 1·20–1·67; p<0·0001). Risk declined the longer ago use had ceased, although about 10 years after stopping long-duration hormone therapy use there was still an excess of serous or endometrioid tumours (RR 1·25, 95% CI 1·07–1·46, p=0·005). Interpretation The increased risk may well be largely or wholly causal; if it is, women who use hormone therapy for 5 years from around age 50 years have about one extra ovarian cancer per 1000 users and, if its prognosis is typical, about one extra ovarian cancer death per 1700 users

Adenosine-triphosphate in semen and other sperm characteristics: their relevance for fertility prediction in men with normal sperm concentration

Objective: To evaluate the power of sperm characteristics and of the semen content of adenosine triphosphate (ATP) in predicting the occurrence of pregnancy in infertile couples. Design: This is a prospective study monitoring the occurrence of pregnancy during 400 days of follow-up. Settings: Couples were recruited in 10 centers, and data were analyzed at the World Health Organization Headquarters. Patients: Of 361 couples recruited, 306 satisfied the following criteria: infertility of at least 12 months' duration, anatomically normal female ovulating regularly, sperm concentration > 20 x 10(6)/mL, valid semen data, and ATP available before conception. Interventions: None. Main Outcome Measure: The occurrence of pregnancy. Results: Ninety-six couples (31.4%) achieved conception. Duration of infertility < 3 years was associated with higher conception rate (41.1%) than longer duration (28.2%). None of the semen characteristics nor the ATP content predicted the occurrence of pregnancy. Conclusions: Neither conventional sperm characteristics nor semen ATP can predict the occurrence of pregnancy among couples in which the female partner is normal and the male partner has sperm concentration > 20 x 10(6)/mL

Assessing the acceptability, service delivery requirements, and use-effectiveness of the diaphragm in Colombia, Philippines, and Turkey

The diaphragm is not available in many countries, despite the recommendations of numerous authors that it has important advantages as a woman-controlled method that offers some protection against sexually transmitted diseases, and one that is safe and free of side effects. An interagency tram collaborated to introduce the diaphragm in Colombia, the Philippines, and Turkey, using the same protocol to assess the acceptability, service delivery requirements and use-effectiveness of the method. Eighteen public and private sector service delivery sites were involved and a total of 550 women were enrolled in the study. Provider training aimed to improve the quality of care with which all methods were delivered and included counseling about sexuality and reproductive health risks. The cumulative 12-month pregnancy rare of 10.1 (SE 1.7) per 100 woman-years is on the low End of previous studies of the diaphragm, and the 12-month continuation rate (57.2 [SE 2.4] per 101) compares favorably with that for oral contraceptives and the intrauterine device. Focus group discussions conducted with clients and providers indicated that the method was an important alternative for some women, particularly those who had experienced health problems with other methods or were unable to negotiate condom use with their partners. Provider biases diminished as they observed the strategic niche that the diaphragm filled for their clients. While providing the diaphragm requires training and good client-provider interaction, the requirements are consistent with those called for in the Programme of Action of the international Conference on Population and Development (ICPD, 1994). With proper attention to quality of care, the diaphragm can be successfully offered in resource-poor settings. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science Inc. All rights reserved

Menarche, menopause, and breast cancer risk: individual participant meta-analysis, including 118 964 women with breast cancer from 117 epidemiological studies

Background: Menarche and menopause mark the onset and cessation, respectively, of ovarian activity associated with reproduction, and affect breast cancer risk. Our aim was to assess the strengths of their effects and determine whether they depend on characteristics of the tumours or the affected women. Methods: Individual data from 117 epidemiological studies, including 118 964 women with invasive breast cancer and 306 091 without the disease, none of whom had used menopausal hormone therapy, were included in the analyses. We calculated adjusted relative risks (RRs) associated with menarche and menopause for breast cancer overall, and by tumour histology and by oestrogen receptor expression. Findings: Breast cancer risk increased by a factor of 1.050 (95% CI 1.044-1.057; p < 0.0001) for every year younger at menarche, and independently by a smaller amount (1.029, 1.025-1.032; p < 0.0001), for every year older at menopause. Premenopausal women had a greater risk of breast cancer than postmenopausal women of an identical age (RR at age 45-54 years 1.43, 1.33-1.52, p < 0.001). All three of these associations were attenuated by increasing adiposity among postmenopausal women, but did not vary materially by women's year of birth, ethnic origin, childbearing history, smoking, alcohol consumption, or hormonal contraceptive use. All three associations were stronger for lobular than for ductal tumours (p < 0.006 for each comparison). The effect of menopause in women of an identical age and trends by age at menopause were stronger for oestrogen receptor-positive disease than for oestrogen receptor-negative disease (p < 0.01 for both comparisons). Interpretation: The effects of menarche and menopause on breast cancer risk might not be acting merely by lengthening women's total number of reproductive years. Endogenous ovarian hormones are more relevant for oestrogen receptor-positive disease than for oestrogen receptor-negative disease and for lobular than for ductal tumours