Dynamic Bayesian smooth transition autoregressive models applied to hourly electricity load in southern Brazil

Dynamic Bayesian Smooth Transition Autoregressive (DBSTAR) models are proposed for nonlinear autoregressive time series processes as alternative to both the classical Smooth Transition Autoregressive (STAR) models of Chan and Tong (1986) and the Bayesian Simulation STAR (BSTAR) models of Lopes and Salazar (2005). Unlike those, DBSTAR models are sequential polynomial dynamic analytical models suitable for inherently non-stationary time series with non-linear characteristics such as asymmetric cycles. As they are analytical, they also avoid potential computational problems associated with BSTAR models and allow fast sequential estimation of parameters. Two types of DBSTAR models are defined here based on the method adopted to approximate the transition function of their autoregressive components, namely the Taylor and the B-splines DBSTAR models. A harmonic version of those models, that accounted for the cyclical component explicitly in a flexible yet parsimonious way, were applied to the well-known series of annual Canadian lynx trappings and showed improved fitting when compared to both the classical STAR and the BSTAR models. Another application to a long series of hourly electricity loading in southern Brazil, covering the period of the South-African Football World Cup in June 2010, illustrates the short-term forecasting accuracy of fast computing harmonic DBSTAR models that account for various characteristics such as periodic behaviour (both within-the-day and within-the-week) and average temperature

Linking plant composition and arthropod abundance to establish little bustard breeding requirements in pastureland dominated landscapes

Most research on steppe bird habitat selection has been focused on the effects of management regimes or vegetation structure. However, much less is known on how plant composition is related with steppe bird occurrence. We investigated microhabitat of little bustard territorial males and females during the nesting and chick-rearing season in areas with dominance of pastureland focusing on plant composition. We searched for relationships between preferred vegetation and arthropod abundance in order to identify the contribution of different vegetation typologies in providing essential trophic resources for the species. Surveys of little bustards were made using car and foot transects. Plant composition was obtained within a 50 × 50 cm square at four sampling replicates and arthropod availability was sampled using a sweep net. Statistical procedures were conducted in three steps: (1) analysis of variance was used to identify at univariate level the plant composition and arthropod variables that were significantly related with both male and female occurrence sites; (2) principal components analysis was performed using the variables with significant results at univariate level; (3) model averaging on generalized linear and mixed models was applied to evaluate the selection probability of each principal component. The species occurs in sites with high floristic richness and high abundance of Fabaceae species, although plant composition differs from male to female sites. These variables were found to be crucial to provide higher abundances of arthropods, notably of Acrididea, Formicidae and some groups of Coleoptera which are decisive for the selection of displaying or female breeding sites

The importance of grazing regime in the provision of breeding habitat for grassland birds: The case of the endangered little bustard (Tetrax tetrax)

In Mediterranean dry grasslands, grazing by domestic animals is an important agricultural activity on dry grasslands. Several bird species occur in these grazed habitats and are now experiencing a near continuous decline. We investigated the impact of livestock grazing on the threatened little bustard (Tetrax tetrax L.). The study was conducted at the NATURA 2000 Site/Important Bird Area of Cabrela, Portugal. Our main goals were to investigate responses of little bustard territorial males and breeding females to different livestock management practices, namely pasture types, stocking rates and sward structure. Bird distribution was surveyed using car and foot surveys. Data on grazing was supplied by land managers every 10 days from February to June through field interviews. Generalised additive models and model averaging were used to compute predictive models. Results indicate that higher probabilities of occurrence were found in long-term pastures and under light-moderate grazing conditions (stocking rates around 0.4 LU/ha). Conversely, lower probabilities of occurrence were found in ungrazed or heavy grazed fields. Males occurred mostly in large fields, but this variable seemed to be less important for females. On the other hand, green plant cover and the vegetation height were good predictors for the occurrence of females but not for males. Females used mostly pastures with vegetation height around 20–25 cm. Our results suggest that grazing management plans that aim to conserve little bustard populations should consider (1) the maintenance of the larger long-term pastures and (2) the use of light-moderate stocking rates (0.2–0.6 LU/ha)

Currents and pseudomagnetic fields in strained graphene rings

We study the effects of strain on the electronic properties and persistent current characteristics of a graphene ring using the Dirac representation. For a slightly deformed graphene ring flake, one obtains sizable pseudomagnetic (gauge) fields that may effectively reduce or enhance locally the applied magnetic flux through the ring. Flux-induced persistent currents in a flat ring have full rotational symmetry throughout the structure; in contrast, we show that currents in the presence of a circularly symmetric deformation are strongly inhomogeneous, due to the underlying symmetries of graphene. This result illustrates the inherent competition between the `real' magnetic field and the `pseudo' field arising from strains, and suggest an alternative way to probe the strength and symmetries of pseudomagnetic fields on graphene systems

Interband polarized absorption in InP polytypic superlattices

Recent advances in growth techniques have allowed the fabrication of semiconductor nanostructures with mixed wurtzite/zinc-blende crystal phases. Although the optical characterization of these polytypic structures is well eported in the literature, a deeper theoretical understanding of how crystal phase mixing and quantum confinement change the output linear light polarization is still needed. In this paper, we theoretically investigate the mixing effects of wurtzite and zinc-blende phases on the interband absorption and in the degree of light polarization of an InP polytypic superlattice. We use a single 8$\times$8 k$\cdot$p Hamiltonian that describes both crystal phases. Quantum confinement is investigated by changing the size of the polytypic unit cell. We also include the optical confinement effect due to the dielectric mismatch between the superlattice and the vaccum and we show it to be necessary to match experimental results. Our calculations for large wurtzite concentrations and small quantum confinement explain the optical trends of recent photoluminescence excitation measurements. Furthermore, we find a high sensitivity to zinc-blende concentrations in the degree of linear polarization. This sensitivity can be reduced by increasing quantum confinement. In conclusion, our theoretical analysis provides an explanation for optical trends in InP polytypic superlattices, and shows that the interplay of crystal phase mixing and quantum confinement is an area worth exploring for light polarization engineering.Comment: 9 pages, 6 figures and 1 tabl

Existence criteria for stabilization from the scaling behaviour of ionization probabilities

We provide a systematic derivation of the scaling behaviour of various quantities and establish in particular the scale invariance of the ionization probability. We discuss the gauge invariance of the scaling properties and the manner in which they can be exploited as consistency check in explicit analytical expressions, in perturbation theory, in the Kramers-Henneberger and Floquet approximation, in upper and lower bound estimates and fully numerical solutions of the time dependent Schroedinger equation. The scaling invariance leads to a differential equation which has to be satisfied by the ionization probability and which yields an alternative criterium for the existence of atomic bound state stabilization.Comment: 12 pages of Latex, one figur