123 research outputs found

    Detection of hepatitis B virus covalently closed circular DNA in the plasma of Iranian HBeAg-negative patients with chronic hepatitis B

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    Background: Covalently closed circular DNA (cccDNA) of hepatitis B virus (HBV) is a marker of HBV replication in the liver of patients infected with HBV. Objectives: This study aimed to investigate the association between the presence of cccDNA in the plasma samples of Iranian treatment-naive patients with chronic hepatitis B infection and HBV viral load and HBsAg levels. Patients and Methods: From April 2012 to May 2015, 106 treatment-naive patients with chronic hepatitis B infection were enrolled in this cross-sectional study. The HBsAg titer was measured by the Roche HBsAg II assay on the Cobas e411 system, and HBV DNA quantitation was performed using the COBAS TaqMan 48 kit. Real-time polymerase chain reaction was performed for the detection of HBV cccDNA. Results: The mean (SD) age of the patients was 41.1 ± 12.4 years (range, 20 - 62 years). From a total of 106 study participants, 67 (63.2) were males. The HBV cccDNA was detected in plasma specimens in 19 (17.9) out of the total 106 patients, and a significant relationship was found between the presence of cccDNA in plasma sample of males (23.9) and females (7.7) (P = 0.039). Also, a significant correlation was found between the presence of cccDNA in plasma sample of the patients and HBV viral load level (P < 0.0001) and HBsAg titer (P = 0.0043). Conclusions: This study showed that cccDNA can be detected in the plasma specimen of 17.9 of Iranian treatment-naive patients with chronic hepatitis B infection. Therefore, designing prospective studies focusing on the detection of cccDNA in these patients would provide more information. © 2015, Kowsar Corp

    Serum level of interleukin-6 in patients with oral tongue squamous cell carcinoma

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    Introduction: The clinical outcome of patients with squamous cell carcinoma (SCC) located in the head and neck has remained poor despite ongoing advances in diagnosis and management. Interleukin-6(IL-6) is a multi-functional cytokine that plays an important role in the process of cell differentiation and is increased in several malignancies. The aim of this study was to investigate the serum levels of interleukin-6 in patients with oral tongue SCC. Materials and Methods: In a cross-sectional study, 17 patients with oral tongue SCC were compared with the same number of age- and gender-matched healthy subjects. Serum IL-6 level fluctuation was determined using an immunological technique, before detecting its possible association with the subjects' age, gender, drinking and smoking history, cancer site, and disease severity. Results: The intensity of serum IL-6 in patients with oral tongue SCC was statistically significantly higher than that in healthy subjects (P<0.001). Serum IL-6 level was independent of the patients' age, gender, smoking and drinking history as well as cancer stage. Conclusion: IL-6 is a valuable biomarker in the diagnosis of oral tongue SCC. Its high sensitivity makes prediction of this condition possible, while this biomarker can also be used to screen high-risk patients

    Soil Moisture Data for the Validation of Permafrost Models Using Direct and Indirect Measurement Approaches at Three Alpine Sites

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    To date, there has been no comprehensive review of the epidemiology, risk factors, species distribution, and outcomes of candidemia in Iran. This study aimed to perform a systematic review and meta-analysis of all reported candidemia cases in Iran until December 2015. The review process occurred in three steps, namely a literature search, data extraction and statistical analyses. After a comprehensive literature search, we identified 55 cases. The mean age of patients was 46.80±24.30 years (range 1–81 years). The main risk factors for candidemia were surgery and burns (23.6%), followed by malignancies (20%), use of broad-spectrum antibiotics (18.2%), and diabetes (7.3%). Candida parapsilosis (n=17, 30.8%) was the leading agent, followed by Candida albicans (n=15, 27.3%), Candida glabrata (n=10, 18.2%), and Candida tropicalis (n=8, 14.5%). The frequencies of candidemia cases due to C. glabrata, C. parapsilosis, and C. albicans were significantly higher among patients aged>60, 21–40, and 41–60 years, respectively. Comparison of risk factors for candidemia by multiple logistic regression showed that one of the most important risk factors was surgery (OR: 4.245; 95% CI: 1.141–15.789; P=0.031). The outcome was recorded in only 19 cases and 13 of those patients (68.4%) expired. This study confirms that knowledge of the local epidemiology is important when conducting surveillance studies to prevent and control candidemia and will be of interest for antifungal stewardship

    Serum level of interleukin-6 in patients with oral tongue squamous cell carcinoma

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    Introduction: The clinical outcome of patients with squamous cell carcinoma (SCC) located in the head and neck has remained poor despite ongoing advances in diagnosis and management. Interleukin-6(IL-6) is a multi-functional cytokine that plays an important role in the process of cell differentiation and is increased in several malignancies. The aim of this study was to investigate the serum levels of interleukin-6 in patients with oral tongue SCC. Materials and Methods: In a cross-sectional study, 17 patients with oral tongue SCC were compared with the same number of age- and gender-matched healthy subjects. Serum IL-6 level fluctuation was determined using an immunological technique, before detecting its possible association with the subjects' age, gender, drinking and smoking history, cancer site, and disease severity. Results: The intensity of serum IL-6 in patients with oral tongue SCC was statistically significantly higher than that in healthy subjects (P<0.001). Serum IL-6 level was independent of the patients' age, gender, smoking and drinking history as well as cancer stage. Conclusion: IL-6 is a valuable biomarker in the diagnosis of oral tongue SCC. Its high sensitivity makes prediction of this condition possible, while this biomarker can also be used to screen high-risk patients

    Distribution of hepatitis C virus genotypes among Azerbaijani patients in capital city of Iran-Tehran

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    Background: Determination of the Hepatitis C virus (HCV) genotype distributed in a particular area has an important role on public health throughout the world. Objectives: The aim of this study was to determine the frequency of HCV genotypes in Azerbaijani patients. Patients and Methods: From March 2010 until March 2012, 235 Azerbaijani patients with established chronic hepatitis C, referred to Hospitals related to Iran University of Medical Sciences and Tehran Hepatitis Center, Clinical department of Baqiyatallah Research Center for Gastroeneterology and Liver Disease, were enrolled in this cross sectional study. About 5 mL of peripheral blood was collected from patients and after separation of plasma, viral RNA extracted. HCV-RNA were amplified by RT-nested PCR using primers from the 5ĂąïżœÂł-UTR and genotyped by RFLP assay, and then HCV genotypes were confirmed using sequencing of cloned PCR products into pJET1.2/blunt cloning vector. Results: HCV genotyping of positive plasma samples demonstrated that predominant HCV subtype was noted for 1b (71.1) followed by subtype 3a (17.0), genotype 2 (6.8), 1a (1.7), and mixed infection (3.4). The mean ± SD age of patients was 37.3 ± 11.8 (range: 2-63) years. Out of 235 patients, 139 (59.1) were male. The frequency of HCV subtype 3a was higher in patients under 40 years old (3a: 18.1 vs. 15.0), and subtype 3a was higher in male patients (3a: 18.7 vs. 14.6). Conclusions: The current study shows that the predominant HCV genotype among Azerbaijani patients with established chronic hepatitis C is subtype 1b (71.1) followed by subtype 3a (17.0). © 2013, Kowsar Corp

    The association of substitutions in the hepatitis C virus subtype 1b core gene and IL28B polymorphisms with the response to peg-IFNα-2a/RBV combination therapy in Azerbaijani patients

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    Background: The hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection has been identified as a leading cause of progressive liver diseases worldwide. Despite new treatment strategies, pegylated interferon alfa-2a (Peg-IFNα-2a), in combination with ribavirin (RBV), still represents the gold standard of therapy for hepatitis C in developing countries. Objectives: The aim of this study was to investigate the association of substitutions in the HCV subtype 1b (HCV-1b) core protein and the rs12979860 polymorphism in the interleukin 28B gene (IL28B) with the response to Peg-IFNα-2a/RBV combination therapy in Azerbaijani patients. Patients and Methods: A total of fifty-one chronically HCV-1b-infected Azerbaijani patients were enrolled in this cross-sectional study from March 2010 to June 2015. After RNA extraction from pre-treatment plasma, the core region of the HCV genome was am- plified using the nested reverse transcription (RT) polymerase chain reaction (PCR) method, followed by standard sequencing. In addition, genomic DNA was extracted from peripheral blood mononuclear cell (PBMC) specimens, and the rs12979860 single nu- cleotide polymorphism (SNP) was identified using a PCR-restriction fragment length polymorphism (PCR-RFLP) assay. Results: In this study, a significant association was observed between the non-responders and relapsers to antiviral therapy and substitutions in the HCV-1b core region at positions 43 (R43K, P = 0.047), 70 (R70Q, P < 0.001), 91 (M91L, P = 0.037), and 106 (S106N, P = 0.018). Concerning the IL28B polymorphism, the results showed that sustained virological response was significantly associated with homozygous CC patients (P = 0.009) as compared with other genotypes, while homozygous TT subjects were associated with HCV relapse after therapy (P = 0.006). Conclusions: The data of the present study suggest that amino acid substitutions at position 43, 70, 91, and 106 in the HCV-1b core protein are correlated with the response to the Peg-IFNα-2a/RBV treatment in Azerbaijani patients with chronic hepatitis C. Moreover, host genetic polymorphisms, such as those of the IL28B locus, might be useful for predicting the responsiveness to Peg-IFNα- 2a/RBV combination therapy against HCV. © 2016, Kowsar Corp

    Occult hepatitis C virus infection in candidates for liver transplant with cryptogenic cirrhosis

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    Background: Occult hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection is a new entity described by the presence of HCV-RNA in liver biopsy and/or peripheral blood mononuclear cell (PBMC) specimens, and undetectable levels or absence of HCV-RNA and in the absence or presence of anti HCV antibodies in plasma by current laboratory methods. Objectives: To evaluate the detection of HCV-RNA in PBMC specimens of the liver transplant candidates with cryptogenic cirrhosis by reverse transcriptase-nested polymerase chain reaction (RT-nested PCR). Patients and Methods: From November 2007 to March 2013, 45 patients from Liver Transplant Center of Imam Khomeini Hospital, Tehran, were enrolled in this cross sectional study. PBMC specimens were separated from the peripheral blood sample. After extraction of RNA from plasma and PBMC specimens, HCV-RNA status was tested by RT-nested PCR. The 5ĂąïżœÂČ-untranslated region (5ĂąïżœÂČ-UTR) genotyping of HCV-RNA amplified from PBMC specimens was performed by a standard methodology with the INNO-LiPATM HCV II kit. The PCR products of 5ĂąïżœÂČ-UTR were sequenced after cloning into the pJET1.2 / blunt cloning vector. Results: Of 45 patients, 4 (8.9 95% CI: 4.4-15.6) had detectable genomic HCV-RNA in their PBMC specimens. HCV genotypes were determined in the PBMCs of these subjects showed that 2 (50.0%) subjects with occult HCV infection had HCV subtype 3a, and 2 (50.0%) had HCV subtype 1b. Conclusions: This study found that 8.9 % of the Iranian candidates for liver transplant with cryptogenic cirrhosis had occult HCV infection. Therefore, designing prospective studies focusing on the diagnosis of occult HCV infection in these subjects prior to liver transplantation could be valuable. © 2013, Kowsar Corp.; Licensee Kowsar Ltd

    Global, regional, and national incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability for 354 diseases and injuries for 195 countries and territories, 1990-2017 : a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

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    Background: The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017 (GBD 2017) includes a comprehensive assessment of incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability (YLDs) for 354 causes in 195 countries and territories from 1990 to 2017. Previous GBD studies have shown how the decline of mortality rates from 1990 to 2016 has led to an increase in life expectancy, an ageing global population, and an expansion of the non-fatal burden of disease and injury. These studies have also shown how a substantial portion of the world's population experiences non-fatal health loss with considerable heterogeneity among different causes, locations, ages, and sexes. Ongoing objectives of the GBD study include increasing the level of estimation detail, improving analytical strategies, and increasing the amount of high-quality data. Methods: We estimated incidence and prevalence for 354 diseases and injuries and 3484 sequelae. We used an updated and extensive body of literature studies, survey data, surveillance data, inpatient admission records, outpatient visit records, and health insurance claims, and additionally used results from cause of death models to inform estimates using a total of 68 781 data sources. Newly available clinical data from India, Iran, Japan, Jordan, Nepal, China, Brazil, Norway, and Italy were incorporated, as well as updated claims data from the USA and new claims data from Taiwan (province of China) and Singapore. We used DisMod-MR 2.1, a Bayesian meta-regression tool, as the main method of estimation, ensuring consistency between rates of incidence, prevalence, remission, and cause of death for each condition. YLDs were estimated as the product of a prevalence estimate and a disability weight for health states of each mutually exclusive sequela, adjusted for comorbidity. We updated the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a summary development indicator of income per capita, years of schooling, and total fertility rate. Additionally, we calculated differences between male and female YLDs to identify divergent trends across sexes. GBD 2017 complies with the Guidelines for Accurate and Transparent Health Estimates Reporting. Findings: Globally, for females, the causes with the greatest age-standardised prevalence were oral disorders, headache disorders, and haemoglobinopathies and haemolytic anaemias in both 1990 and 2017. For males, the causes with the greatest age-standardised prevalence were oral disorders, headache disorders, and tuberculosis including latent tuberculosis infection in both 1990 and 2017. In terms of YLDs, low back pain, headache disorders, and dietary iron deficiency were the leading Level 3 causes of YLD counts in 1990, whereas low back pain, headache disorders, and depressive disorders were the leading causes in 2017 for both sexes combined. All-cause age-standardised YLD rates decreased by 3·9% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 3·1–4·6) from 1990 to 2017; however, the all-age YLD rate increased by 7·2% (6·0–8·4) while the total sum of global YLDs increased from 562 million (421–723) to 853 million (642–1100). The increases for males and females were similar, with increases in all-age YLD rates of 7·9% (6·6–9·2) for males and 6·5% (5·4–7·7) for females. We found significant differences between males and females in terms of age-standardised prevalence estimates for multiple causes. The causes with the greatest relative differences between sexes in 2017 included substance use disorders (3018 cases [95% UI 2782–3252] per 100 000 in males vs s1400 [1279–1524] per 100 000 in females), transport injuries (3322 [3082–3583] vs 2336 [2154–2535]), and self-harm and interpersonal violence (3265 [2943–3630] vs 5643 [5057–6302]). Interpretation: Global all-cause age-standardised YLD rates have improved only slightly over a period spanning nearly three decades. However, the magnitude of the non-fatal disease burden has expanded globally, with increasing numbers of people who have a wide spectrum of conditions. A subset of conditions has remained globally pervasive since 1990, whereas other conditions have displayed more dynamic trends, with different ages, sexes, and geographies across the globe experiencing varying burdens and trends of health loss. This study emphasises how global improvements in premature mortality for select conditions have led to older populations with complex and potentially expensive diseases, yet also highlights global achievements in certain domains of disease and injury. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation

    Population and fertility by age and sex for 195 countries and territories, 1950–2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

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    Background: Population estimates underpin demographic and epidemiological research and are used to track progress on numerous international indicators of health and development. To date, internationally available estimates of population and fertility, although useful, have not been produced with transparent and replicable methods and do not use standardised estimates of mortality. We present single-calendar year and single-year of age estimates of fertility and population by sex with standardised and replicable methods. Methods: We estimated population in 195 locations by single year of age and single calendar year from 1950 to 2017 with standardised and replicable methods. We based the estimates on the demographic balancing equation, with inputs of fertility, mortality, population, and migration data. Fertility data came from 7817 location-years of vital registration data, 429 surveys reporting complete birth histories, and 977 surveys and censuses reporting summary birth histories. We estimated age-specific fertility rates (ASFRs; the annual number of livebirths to women of a specified age group per 1000 women in that age group) by use of spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression and used the ASFRs to estimate total fertility rates (TFRs; the average number of children a woman would bear if she survived through the end of the reproductive age span [age 10–54 years] and experienced at each age a particular set of ASFRs observed in the year of interest). Because of sparse data, fertility at ages 10–14 years and 50–54 years was estimated from data on fertility in women aged 15–19 years and 45–49 years, through use of linear regression. Age-specific mortality data came from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 estimates. Data on population came from 1257 censuses and 761 population registry location-years and were adjusted for underenumeration and age misreporting with standard demographic methods. Migration was estimated with the GBD Bayesian demographic balancing model, after incorporating information about refugee migration into the model prior. Final population estimates used the cohort-component method of population projection, with inputs of fertility, mortality, and migration data. Population uncertainty was estimated by use of out-of-sample predictive validity testing. With these data, we estimated the trends in population by age and sex and in fertility by age between 1950 and 2017 in 195 countries and territories. Findings: From 1950 to 2017, TFRs decreased by 49\ub74% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 46\ub74–52\ub70). The TFR decreased from 4\ub77 livebirths (4\ub75–4\ub79) to 2\ub74 livebirths (2\ub72–2\ub75), and the ASFR of mothers aged 10–19 years decreased from 37 livebirths (34–40) to 22 livebirths (19–24) per 1000 women. Despite reductions in the TFR, the global population has been increasing by an average of 83\ub78 million people per year since 1985. The global population increased by 197\ub72% (193\ub73–200\ub78) since 1950, from 2\ub76 billion (2\ub75–2\ub76) to 7\ub76 billion (7\ub74–7\ub79) people in 2017; much of this increase was in the proportion of the global population in south Asia and sub-Saharan Africa. The global annual rate of population growth increased between 1950 and 1964, when it peaked at 2\ub70%; this rate then remained nearly constant until 1970 and then decreased to 1\ub71% in 2017. Population growth rates in the southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania GBD super-region decreased from 2\ub75% in 1963 to 0\ub77% in 2017, whereas in sub-Saharan Africa, population growth rates were almost at the highest reported levels ever in 2017, when they were at 2\ub77%. The global average age increased from 26\ub76 years in 1950 to 32\ub71 years in 2017, and the proportion of the population that is of working age (age 15–64 years) increased from 59\ub79% to 65\ub73%. At the national level, the TFR decreased in all countries and territories between 1950 and 2017; in 2017, TFRs ranged from a low of 1\ub70 livebirths (95% UI 0\ub79–1\ub72) in Cyprus to a high of 7\ub71 livebirths (6\ub78–7\ub74) in Niger. The TFR under age 25 years (TFU25; number of livebirths expected by age 25 years for a hypothetical woman who survived the age group and was exposed to current ASFRs) in 2017 ranged from 0\ub708 livebirths (0\ub707–0\ub709) in South Korea to 2\ub74 livebirths (2\ub72–2\ub76) in Niger, and the TFR over age 30 years (TFO30; number of livebirths expected for a hypothetical woman ageing from 30 to 54 years who survived the age group and was exposed to current ASFRs) ranged from a low of 0\ub73 livebirths (0\ub73–0\ub74) in Puerto Rico to a high of 3\ub71 livebirths (3\ub70–3\ub72) in Niger. TFO30 was higher than TFU25 in 145 countries and territories in 2017. 33 countries had a negative population growth rate from 2010 to 2017, most of which were located in central, eastern, and western Europe, whereas population growth rates of more than 2\ub70% were seen in 33 of 46 countries in sub-Saharan Africa. In 2017, less than 65% of the national population was of working age in 12 of 34 high-income countries, and less than 50% of the national population was of working age in Mali, Chad, and Niger. Interpretation: Population trends create demographic dividends and headwinds (ie, economic benefits and detriments) that affect national economies and determine national planning needs. Although TFRs are decreasing, the global population continues to grow as mortality declines, with diverse patterns at the national level and across age groups. To our knowledge, this is the first study to provide transparent and replicable estimates of population and fertility, which can be used to inform decision making and to monitor progress. Funding: Bill &amp; Melinda Gates Foundation

    Population and fertility by age and sex for 195 countries and territories, 1950–2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

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    Background: Population estimates underpin demographic and epidemiological research and are used to track progress on numerous international indicators of health and development. To date, internationally available estimates of population and fertility, although useful, have not been produced with transparent and replicable methods and do not use standardised estimates of mortality. We present single-calendar year and single-year of age estimates of fertility and population by sex with standardised and replicable methods. Methods: We estimated population in 195 locations by single year of age and single calendar year from 1950 to 2017 with standardised and replicable methods. We based the estimates on the demographic balancing equation, with inputs of fertility, mortality, population, and migration data. Fertility data came from 7817 location-years of vital registration data, 429 surveys reporting complete birth histories, and 977 surveys and censuses reporting summary birth histories. We estimated age-specific fertility rates (ASFRs; the annual number of livebirths to women of a specified age group per 1000 women in that age group) by use of spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression and used the ASFRs to estimate total fertility rates (TFRs; the average number of children a woman would bear if she survived through the end of the reproductive age span [age 10–54 years] and experienced at each age a particular set of ASFRs observed in the year of interest). Because of sparse data, fertility at ages 10–14 years and 50–54 years was estimated from data on fertility in women aged 15–19 years and 45–49 years, through use of linear regression. Age-specific mortality data came from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 estimates. Data on population came from 1257 censuses and 761 population registry location-years and were adjusted for underenumeration and age misreporting with standard demographic methods. Migration was estimated with the GBD Bayesian demographic balancing model, after incorporating information about refugee migration into the model prior. Final population estimates used the cohort-component method of population projection, with inputs of fertility, mortality, and migration data. Population uncertainty was estimated by use of out-of-sample predictive validity testing. With these data, we estimated the trends in population by age and sex and in fertility by age between 1950 and 2017 in 195 countries and territories. Findings: From 1950 to 2017, TFRs decreased by 49·4% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 46·4–52·0). The TFR decreased from 4·7 livebirths (4·5–4·9) to 2·4 livebirths (2·2–2·5), and the ASFR of mothers aged 10–19 years decreased from 37 livebirths (34–40) to 22 livebirths (19–24) per 1000 women. Despite reductions in the TFR, the global population has been increasing by an average of 83·8 million people per year since 1985. The global population increased by 197·2% (193·3–200·8) since 1950, from 2·6 billion (2·5–2·6) to 7·6 billion (7·4–7·9) people in 2017; much of this increase was in the proportion of the global population in south Asia and sub-Saharan Africa. The global annual rate of population growth increased between 1950 and 1964, when it peaked at 2·0%; this rate then remained nearly constant until 1970 and then decreased to 1·1% in 2017. Population growth rates in the southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania GBD super-region decreased from 2·5% in 1963 to 0·7% in 2017, whereas in sub-Saharan Africa, population growth rates were almost at the highest reported levels ever in 2017, when they were at 2·7%. The global average age increased from 26·6 years in 1950 to 32·1 years in 2017, and the proportion of the population that is of working age (age 15–64 years) increased from 59·9% to 65·3%. At the national level, the TFR decreased in all countries and territories between 1950 and 2017; in 2017, TFRs ranged from a low of 1·0 livebirths (95% UI 0·9–1·2) in Cyprus to a high of 7·1 livebirths (6·8–7·4) in Niger. The TFR under age 25 years (TFU25; number of livebirths expected by age 25 years for a hypothetical woman who survived the age group and was exposed to current ASFRs) in 2017 ranged from 0·08 livebirths (0·07–0·09) in South Korea to 2·4 livebirths (2·2–2·6) in Niger, and the TFR over age 30 years (TFO30; number of livebirths expected for a hypothetical woman ageing from 30 to 54 years who survived the age group and was exposed to current ASFRs) ranged from a low of 0·3 livebirths (0·3–0·4) in Puerto Rico to a high of 3·1 livebirths (3·0–3·2) in Niger. TFO30 was higher than TFU25 in 145 countries and territories in 2017. 33 countries had a negative population growth rate from 2010 to 2017, most of which were located in central, eastern, and western Europe, whereas population growth rates of more than 2·0% were seen in 33 of 46 countries in sub-Saharan Africa. In 2017, less than 65% of the national population was of working age in 12 of 34 high-income countries, and less than 50% of the national population was of working age in Mali, Chad, and Niger. Interpretation: Population trends create demographic dividends and headwinds (ie, economic benefits and detriments) that affect national economies and determine national planning needs. Although TFRs are decreasing, the global population continues to grow as mortality declines, with diverse patterns at the national level and across age groups. To our knowledge, this is the first study to provide transparent and replicable estimates of population and fertility, which can be used to inform decision making and to monitor progress
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