Flow structure in a model of aircraft trailing vortices

We consider a model of incompressible trailing vortices consisting of an array of counter-rotating structures in a doubly periodic domain, infinite in the vertical direction. The two-dimensional vortex array of Mallier and Maslowe is combined with an axial velocity profile chosen proportional to the initial axial vorticity to provide an initial condition for the vortex wake. This base flow is a weak solution of the steady Euler equations with three velocity components that are functions of two spatial coordinates, thus allowing its linear stability properties to be investigated. These are used to interpret several stages in the development of vortex structure observed in fully three-dimensional direct numerical simulation (DNS) at Reynolds numbers Gamma/(2pinu)=[script O](1000). For sufficiently high axial velocity, its effect can be seen, in that each vortex in the linear array first develops helical structures before undergoing a period of relaminarization. At later times the more slowly growing cooperative elliptical instabilities become apparent, but the helical structure persists and the observed vortical structures remain coherent for longer periods than in the absence of axial velocity. Using the stretched-vortex subgrid model, large-eddy simulation runs are performed at large Reynolds numbers and a mixing transition identified at about Re=1–2×10^4. Similar phenomena are observed in these simulations as are seen in the DNS

Bivariate stochastic modeling of functional response with natural mortality

A correction due to Abbott (1925) is the standard method of dealing with control mortality in insect bioassay to estimate the mortality of an insect conditional on control mortality not having occurred. In this article a bivariate stochastic process for overall mortality is developed in which natural mortality and predation are jointly modeled to take account of the competing-risks associated with prey loss. The total mortality estimate from this model is essentially identical with that from more classical modeling. However, when predation loss is estimated in the absence of control mortality the results are somewhat different, with the estimate from the bivariate model being lower than that from using Abbott’s formula in conjunction with the classical model. It is argued that overdispersion in observed mortality data corresponds to correlated outcomes (death or survival) for the prey initially present, while Abbott’s correction relies implicitly on independence

Intermittent renewable generation and network congestion: an empirical analysis of Italian Power Market

The literature demonstrates the likely reduction of wholesale electricity prices due to a larger penetration of renewable energy sources (RES). When markets are organized as two or more inter-connected sub-markets within a larger power market the final impact of increasing RES production may be less straightforward given the presence of network constraints. We tests this phenomenon by analyzing the impact of RES production on the probability of congestion and on the size of congestion cost in Italy. Using a database with hourly observations for a five year period we estimate two econometric models on five zonal pairings: a multinomial logit model for the occurrence and direction of congestion and a three stage least square model for the size of congestion costs. The analysis suggests that the effect of a larger local wind and solar supply is to decrease the probability of suffering congestion in entry and to increase the probability of causing a congestion in exit compared to no congestion case. Increasing hydroelectric production has a similar effect. These results hold for both importing and exporting regions, but importing regions are less likely to cause congestion in exit, therefore the installation of new RES capacity in these zones may have a positive effects in terms of flow balance between regions. Concerning the cost level, a larger local RES supply seems to push the congestion cost towards negative values as it decreases the marginal cost for balancing the system. This is true for all zones in the case of explicit congestion cost, but it is only verified in importing regions in the case of implicit congestion cost. This result suggests that the increase of RES production should be promoted in importing zones, but the overall growth should be controlled in order to avoid congestion in the opposite direction

Markov model-based clustering for efficient patient care

Phase-type distributions were used to carry out model-based clustering of patients using the time spent by the patients in hospital, with maximum likelihood estimation of the model parameters. These parameters were allowed to vary with covariates so that the probability of cluster membership was dependent on these covariates. Expressions for the cluster membership probabilities and corresponding distributions of length of stay in care were found where the membership probabilities can be updated to take account of length of stay to date. The approach was applied to data on geriatric patients from an administrative database of a London hospital. The age of the patients at admission to care and the year of admission were included as covariates. Differential effects of these covariates on the various parameters of the fitted model were demonstrated, and interpretations of these effects made. The clusters here corresponded to patient pathways, with different length of stay distributions, varying care needs and different associated costs. By using the membership probabilities to assign patients to such clusters, care may thus be suited to their predicted pathway. Such an approach might be used in association with healthcare process improvement technologies, such as Lean Thinking or Six Sigm

Accuracy of at-sea commercial size grading of tiger prawns (Penaeus esculentus and P-semisulcatus) in the Australian northern prawn fishery

The size-frequency distribution of the commercial catch is often used as the basis of fisheries stock assessments (Paul and Morgan, 1987; Gulland and Rosenberg, 1992) because most dynamic processes of populations (growth, survival, recruitment) are reflected in changes in this distribution. The data are generally collected, often at great expense, by sampling the catch at landing sites and markets, or onboard fishing vessels. Size-frequency distributions of prawns (Penaeus esculentus and P. semisulcatus) can also be obtained from fish processors, who grade landings by size. These data are easier and cheaper to obtain than research samples, but unfortunately they are also considered less accurate and lack spatial information. However, they have been used in stock assessment of prawns in Kuwait (Jones and van Zalinge, 1981) and Malaysia (Simpson and Kong, 1978). It is often difficult to relate size data obtained from a processor to time and place of capture of the prawns, but this is not the case when the product is packed onboard, as in Australia's northern prawn fishery (NPF). Trawler operators in the NPF have voluntarily recorded size composition since 1985, when provision for this was made in operators' daily logbooks (between 30% and 45% of the tiger prawn catch reported in the logbooks contain size information). These books are therefore the most comprehensive source of information on the spatial and temporal size distribution of the commercial catch of the NPF. Present assessments of the fishery are based on deterministic growth and deterministic seasonal recruitment patterns (Wang and Die, 1996) and do not use size-structured data. If available, these data would help relax the recruitment and improve current stock assessments of the NPF. Before the size data recorded in the logbooks can be used, however, the accuracy of size grading at sea needs to the assessed. This paper examines the accuracy of grading tiger prawns, by using data collected from a private firm, A. Raptis and Sons, that operates a large modern processing factory that regularly assesses the onboard grading of product purchased from NPF trawler operators. Although the work presented here relates specifically to the NPF, the practice of onboard size grading is widespread in other fisheries around the world. Therefore our methods have potential application to other fisheries

Bridging Time Scales in Cellular Decision Making with a Stochastic Bistable Switch

Cellular transformations which involve a significant phenotypical change of the cell's state use bistable biochemical switches as underlying decision systems. In this work, we aim at linking cellular decisions taking place on a time scale of years to decades with the biochemical dynamics in signal transduction and gene regulation, occuring on a time scale of minutes to hours. We show that a stochastic bistable switch forms a viable biochemical mechanism to implement decision processes on long time scales. As a case study, the mechanism is applied to model the initiation of follicle growth in mammalian ovaries, where the physiological time scale of follicle pool depletion is on the order of the organism's lifespan. We construct a simple mathematical model for this process based on experimental evidence for the involved genetic mechanisms. Despite the underlying stochasticity, the proposed mechanism turns out to yield reliable behavior in large populations of cells subject to the considered decision process. Our model explains how the physiological time constant may emerge from the intrinsic stochasticity of the underlying gene regulatory network. Apart from ovarian follicles, the proposed mechanism may also be of relevance for other physiological systems where cells take binary decisions over a long time scale.Comment: 14 pages, 4 figure

Climacteric Lowers Plasma Levels of Platelet-Derived Microparticles: A Pilot Study in Pre-versus Postmenopausal Women

Background: Climacteric increases the risk of thrombotic events by alteration of plasmatic coagulation. Up to now, less is known about changes in platelet-(PMP) and endothelial cell-derived microparticles (EMP). Methods: In this prospective study, plasma levels of microparticles (MP) were compared in 21 premenopausal and 19 postmenopausal women. Results: No altered numbers of total MP or EMP were measured within the study groups. However, the plasma values of CD61-exposing MP from platelets/megakaryocytes were higher in premenopausal women (5,364 x 10(6)/l, range 4,384-17,167) as compared to postmenopausal women (3,808 x 10(6)/l, range 2,009-8,850; p = 0.020). This differentiation was also significant for the subgroup of premenopausal women without hormonal contraceptives (5,364 x 10(6)/l, range 4,223-15,916; p = 0.047; n = 15). Furthermore, in premenopausal women, higher plasma levels of PMP exposing CD62P were also present as compared to postmenopausal women (288 x 10(6)/l, range 139-462, vs. 121 x 10(6)/l, range 74-284; p = 0.024). This difference was also true for CD63+ PMP levels (281 x 10(6)/l, range 182-551, vs. 137 x 10(6)/l, range 64-432; p = 0.015). Conclusion: Climacteric lowers the level of PMP but has no impact on the number of EMP in women. These data suggest that PMP and EMP do not play a significant role in enhancing the risk of thrombotic events in healthy, postmenopausal women. Copyright (C) 2012 S. Karger AG, Base

Il nome e il sangue secondo Quinto Smirneo. Riprese e trasformazioni di un motivo del duello eroico

The aim of this essay is to examine the rules of duelling in Greek epic poetry from Homer and Arctinus to Quintus Smyrnaeus, within the perspective of composition by theme, which make it possible to identify heroes' ancestry as a specific motif of the epic duel