Climatic controls on biophysical interactions in the Black Sea under present day conditions and a potential future (A1B) climate scenario

A dynamical downscaling approach has been applied to investigate climatic controls on biophysical interactions and lower trophic level dynamics in the Black Sea. Simulations were performed under present day conditions (1980–1999) and a potential future (2080–2099) climate scenario, based on the Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change A1B greenhouse gas emission scenario. Simulations project a 3.7 °C increase in SST, a 25% increase in the stability of the seasonal thermocline and a 37 day increase in the duration of seasonal stratification. Increased winter temperatures inhibited the formation of Cold Intermediate Layer (CIL) waters resulting in near complete erosion of the CIL, with implications for the ventilation of intermediate water masses and the subduction of riverine nutrients. A 4% increase in nitrate availability within the upper 30 m of the water column reflected an increase in the retention time of river water within the surface mixed-layer. Changes in thermohaline structure, combined with a 27% reduction in positive wind stress curl, forced a distinct change in the structure of the basin-scale circulation. The predominantly cyclonic circulation characteristic of contemporary conditions was reversed within the southern and eastern regions of the basin, where under A1B climatic conditions, anticyclonic circulation prevailed. The change in circulation structure significantly altered the horizontal advection and dispersion of high nutrient river waters originating on the NW self. Net primary production increased by 5% on average, with much spatial variability in the response, linked to advective processes. Phytoplankton biomass also increased by 5% and the higher nutrient environment of the future scenario caused a shift in species composition in favour of larger phytoplankton. No significant change in zooplankton biomass was projected. These results constitute one of many possible future scenarios for the Black Sea, being dependent on the modelling systems employed in addition to the choice of emission scenario. Our results emphasise in particular the sensitivity of dynamical downscaling studies to the regional wind forcing fields extracted from global models (these being typically model dependent). As atmospheric warming is projected with a high degree of confidence warming of the Black Sea upper layer, increased water column stability, and erosion of the CIL are believed to be robust results of this study

Eddy induced cross-shelf exchanges in the Black Sea

Cross-shelf exchanges in the Black Sea were investigated using remote sensing data and an ocean circulation model to which an eddy-tracking algorithm and Lagrangian particle tracking model was applied. An anticyclonic eddy in 1998 and a cyclonic eddy in 2000 were investigated in detail. Eddy-induced cross-shelf transport of low salinity and high Chl-a waters reached a maximum in the presence of filaments associated with these eddies. The daily mean volume transport by the eddies was comparable with the previously documented transport by eddies of similar size in the north-western shelf region. Lagrangian particle tracking results showed that 59% of particles initially released over the shelf were transported offshore within 30 days by the 1998 anticyclone and 27% by the 2000 cyclone. The net volume transport across the Black Sea shelf-break reached the maxima in winter, coinciding with the increase in wind stress curl and mean kinetic energy that is a measure of the intensity of the boundary current. Ekman transport directly influences the cross-shelf exchanges in the surface layer. The south-eastern Black Sea is presented as an important area for cross-shelf transport. The total cross-shelf transport can be divided into its “large-scale” and “eddy-induced” components. Eddy-induced transport was 34% and 37% of the total cross-shelf transport (1998–2014) in the Black Sea in the off-shelf and on-shelf directions, respectively, but these values ranged between 25% and 65% depending on the eddy activity over time

Understanding the Impact of Environmental Variability on Anchovy Overwintering Migration in the Black Sea and its Implications for the Fishing Industry

Black Sea anchovy (Engraulis encrasicolus) undertake extensive overwintering migrations every fall from nursery grounds to warmer overwintering areas located on the south-eastern coast of the Black Sea. During migration and particularly upon arrival at the Anatolian coast, they support an important fishery and valuable source of income for the regional community. Black Sea anchovy have undergone significant stock fluctuations partly related to climatic conditions; for example, migrating anchovy schools arrived late or failed to arrive at the Anatolian coast when fall temperatures increased. It is therefore of importance to understand the conditions required for successful overwintering migration and explore different migration routes. This study invokes a Lagrangian modeling approach applied to satellite derived circulation and temperature data as a first attempt to model anchovy migration dynamics in the Black Sea. This modeling approach takes the influence of the physical environment into account, while the quality of overwintering grounds, adaptive, schooling, and homing behavior is neglected. The model is used to investigate the possible influence of interannual and seasonal variability of temperature and surface currents, as well as the influence of migration behavior on the success of anchovy overwintering migration for both the Black Sea and Azov Sea anchovy. The results of the present work show the possibility that overwintering anchovy fished along the Turkish Eastern Anatolian coast may not exclusively originate from the northwestern shelf, but mainly from the eastern Black Sea basin. Migration pathways are identified for both Black Sea and Azov Sea anchovy, which are of importance for the national fisheries efforts of riparian countries. The modeling results are in agreement with general patterns of anchovy migration given in the literature indicating that the physical environment may be a major factor in shaping general migration patterns. Simulation results are used to hypothesize about alternatives to previously determined migration routes and provide potential reasons that explain the inability of the Bulgarian anchovy fishery to recover. Results show that the intensity and timing of autumnal cooling, coupled with current strength, can be of significant importance in determining annual and seasonal variability of migration success. Considering the need for fisheries management to account for the variability in fishable overwintering anchovy stocks a modeling approach as developed in the current study may provide such a tool

Taxonomic Confusion Blurs the Debate on Cosmopolitanism versus Local Endemism of Free-Living Protists

Historical observations of the large-scale flow and frontal structure of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current in the Scotia Sea region were combined with the wind-induced surface Ekman transport to produce a composite flow field. This was used with a Lagrangian model to investigate transport of Antarctic krill. Particle displacements from known krill spawning areas that result from surface Ekman drift, a composite large-scale flow, and the combination of the two were calculated. Surface Ekman drift alone only transports particles a few kilometres over the 150-day krill larval development time. The large-scale composite flow moves particles several hundreds of kilometres over the same time, suggesting this is the primary transport mechanism. An important contribution of the surface Ekman drift on particles released along the continental shelf break west of the Antarctic Peninsula is moving them north-northeast into the high-speed core of the southern Antarctic Circumpolar Current Front, which then transports the particles to South Georgia in about 140–160 days. Similar particle displacement calculations using surface flow fields obtained from the Fine Resolution Antarctic Model do not show overall transport from the Antarctic Peninsula to South Georgia due to the inaccurate position of the southern Antarctic Circumpolar Current Front in the simulated circulation fields. The particle transit times obtained with the composite large-scale flow field are consistent with regional abundances of larval krill developmental stages collected in the Scotia Sea. These results strongly suggest that krill populations west of the Antarctic Peninsula provide the source for the krill populations found around South Georgia

Seasonal variation in body composition, metabolic activity, feeding, and growth of adult krill Euphausia superba in the Lazarev Sea

We investigated physiological parameters (elemental and biochemical composition, metabolic rates, feeding activity and growth) of adult Antarctic krill in the Lazarev Sea in late spring (December), mid autumn (April) and mid winter (July and August) to evaluate proposed hypotheses of overwintering mechanisms. Our major observations are: (1) respiration rates were reduced by 30 to 50% in autumn and winter, compared to values in late spring; (2) feeding activity was reduced by 80 to 86% in autumn and winter, compared to late spring, at similar food concentrations; (3) feeding was omnivorous during winter; (4) with each moult, krill grew by 0.5 to 3.8% in length; (5) body lipids and, to a small extent, body proteins were consumed during winter. Adult Euphausia superba thus adopt metabolic slowdown and omnivorous feeding activity at low rates to survive the winter season in the Lazarev Sea. By mid autumn, metabolic activity is reduced, most likely being influenced by the Antarctic light regime, which is accompanied by a reduction in feeding activity and growth. Although at a low level, the feeding activity during winter seems to provide an important energy input

Modeling studies of antarctic krill Euphausia superba survival during transport across the Scotia Sea

Antarctic krill Euphausia superba spawned on the outer continental shelf of the west Antarctic Peninsula can be entrained into the Southern Front of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current and transported across the Scotia Sea to South Georgia. A time-dependent, size-structured, physiologically based krill growth model was used to assess the food resources that are needed to sustain Antarctic krill during transport across the Scotia Sea and to allow them to grow to a size observed at South Georgia. Initial Lagrangian simulations provide trajectories that are followed by particles released on the west Antarctic Peninsula shelf. Pelagic phytoplankton concentrations along these trajectories are extracted from historical Coastal Zone Color Scanner measurements from the Antarctic Peninsula-Scotia Sea region and are input to the growth model. The results of these simulations show that pelagic phytoplankton concentrations are not sufficient to support continuous growth of Antarctic krill during the 140 to 160 d needed for transport to South Georgia. The inclusion of a supplemental food source during part of the transport time, such as sea ice algae (up to 80 mg chl a m(-3)), does not significantly alter this result. Survival and growth of larval krill during modeled transport is, however, enhanced by encounters with mesoscale patches of high chlorophyll concentrations (1 mg m(-3)), while subadults and adults benefit less from these conditions. Further simulations show the importance of an additional food source, such as heterotrophic food, for the survival of subadult and adult Antarctic krill. For all planktonic food scenarios tested, krill that begin transport at the Antarctic Peninsula did not reach the smallest age group often observed at South Georgia, the 2+ group, during the 140 to 160 d of transport. Including the effect of increasing temperature across the Scotia Sea on krill growth rate does not significantly alter these results, since the maximum increase in growth due to increased temperature obtained in the simulations was 1.0 mm for both 2 and 22 mm Antarcic krill. These simulations suggest the possibility of alternative transport scenarios, such as Antarctic krill beginning transport at the Antarctic Peninsula in austral summer and overwintering under the sea ice that extends northward from the Weddell Sea into the Scotia Sea. Such an interrupted transport would allow the Antarctic krill to overwinter in a potentially better food environment and begin transport again the following year, growing to a size that is within the range observed for Antarctic krill populations at South Georgia

Eddy induced cross-shelf exchanges in the Black Sea

NEMO 3.6 model data used in the paper 'Eddy induced cross-shelf exchanges in the Black Sea' to be submitted to be submitted to Journal of Remote Sensing (special issue)