ConStance: Modeling Annotation Contexts to Improve Stance Classification

Manual annotations are a prerequisite for many applications of machine learning. However, weaknesses in the annotation process itself are easy to overlook. In particular, scholars often choose what information to give to annotators without examining these decisions empirically. For subjective tasks such as sentiment analysis, sarcasm, and stance detection, such choices can impact results. Here, for the task of political stance detection on Twitter, we show that providing too little context can result in noisy and uncertain annotations, whereas providing too strong a context may cause it to outweigh other signals. To characterize and reduce these biases, we develop ConStance, a general model for reasoning about annotations across information conditions. Given conflicting labels produced by multiple annotators seeing the same instances with different contexts, ConStance simultaneously estimates gold standard labels and also learns a classifier for new instances. We show that the classifier learned by ConStance outperforms a variety of baselines at predicting political stance, while the model's interpretable parameters shed light on the effects of each context.Comment: To appear at EMNLP 201

Recovery of the Gulf of Maine--Georges Bank Atlantic herring (Clupea harengus) complex: perspectives based on bottom trawl survey data

NMFS bottom trawl survey data were used to describe changes in distribution, abundance, and rates of population change occurring in the Gulf of Maine–Georges Bank herring (Clupea harengus) complex during 1963–98. Herring in the region have fully recovered following severe overfishing during the 1960s and 1970s. Three distinct, but seasonally intermingling components from the Gulf of Maine, Nantucket Shoals (Great South Channel area), and Georges Bank appear to compose the herring resource in the region. Distribution ranges contracted as herring biomass declined in the late 1970s and then the range expanded in the 1990s as herring increased. Analysis of research survey data suggest that herring are currently at high levels of abundance and biomass. All three components of the stock complex, including the Georges Bank component, have recovered to pre-1960s abundance. Survey data support the theory that herring recolonized the Georges Bank region in stages from adjacent components during the late 1980s, most likely from herring spawning in the Gulf of Maine

Global Post-Fordism and Concepts of the State

Article originally published in the International Journal of Sociology of Agriculture and FoodFollowing a review of the literature on the State and some of the basic features of global post-Fordism, it is maintained that global post-Fordism can be synthesized through a set of four dialectical relationships: deregulation/re-regulation, fragmentation/coordination, mobility/embeddedness and empowerment/disempowerment. Moreover, it is argued that: 1) the State in global post-Fordism cannot be thought of exclusively in national terms; 2) its re-conceptualization must entail a transnational dimension; 3) the State cannot be conceptualized exclusively in terms of formal public appearances, agents and agencies; and 4) non-public apparatuses, agents and agencies must be included in the analysis.Sociolog

A cross-ecosystem comparison of temporal variability in recruitment of functionally analogous fish stocks

As part of the international MENU collaboration, variability in temporal patterns of recruitment and spawning stock were compared among functionally analogous species from four marine ecosystems including the Gulf of Maine/Georges Bank, the Norwegian/Barents Seas, the eastern Bering Sea and the Gulf of Alaska. Variability was characterized by calculating coefficients of variation for each time series and by representing the time series as anomalies. Patterns of synchrony and asynchrony in recruitment and spawning stock indices were examined among and between ecosystems and related to observed patterns in biophysical properties (e.g. local trophodynamics, local hydrography and large scale climate indices) using a wide range of time series analyses, autocorrelation corrections, autoregressive processes, and multivariate cross-correlation analyses. Of all the commonalities, the relatively similar cross-ecosystem and within-species magnitude of variation was most notable. Of all the differences, the timing of high or low recruitment years across both species and ecosystems was most notable. However, many of the peaks in these indices of recruitment were synchronous across ecosystems for functionally analogous species. Yet the relationships (or lack thereof) between recruitment anomalies and key biophysical properties demonstrated that no one factor consistently caused large recruitment events. Our observations also suggested that there was no routine and common set of factors that influences recruitment; often multiple factors were of similar relative prominence. This work demonstrates that commonalities and synchronies in recruitment fluctuations can be found across geographically very distant ecosystems, but biophysical causes of the fluctuations are difficult to partition. Keywords: Ecosystem, recruitment, trophodynamics, variation

A comparison of community and trophic structure in five marine ecosystems based on energy budgets and system metrics

As part of the international MENU collaboration, energy budget models for five marine ecosystems were compared to identify differences and similarities in trophic and community characteristics across ecosystems. We examined the Gulf of Maine and Georges Bank in the Northwest Atlantic Ocean, the combined Norwegian/Barents Seas in the Northeast Atlantic Ocean, and the eastern Bering Sea and the Gulf of Alaska in the Northeast Pacific Ocean. Comparable energy budgets were constructed for each ecosystem by aggregating information for similar species groups into consistent functional groups across all five ecosystems. Several ecosystem metrics (including functional group production, consumption, and biomass ratios, ABC curves, cumulative biomass, food web macrodescriptors, and network metrics) were examined across the ecosystems. The comparative approach clearly identified data gaps for each ecosystem, an important outcome of this work. Commonalities across the ecosystems included overall high primary production and energy flow at low trophic levels, high production and consumption by carnivorous zooplankton, and similar proportions of apex predator to lower trophic level biomass. Major differences included distinct biomass ratios of pelagic to demersal fish, ranging from highest in the Norwegian/Barents ecosystem to lowest in the Alaskan systems, and notable gradients in primary production per unit area, highest in the Alaskan and Georges Bank/Gulf of Maine ecosystems, and lowest in the Norwegian ecosystems. While comparing a disparate group of organisms across a wide range of marine ecosystems is challenging, this work demonstrates that standardized metrics both elucidate properties common to marine ecosystems and identify key distinctions for fishery management

Sexual Risk Behaviour among HIV-Positive Individuals in Clinical Care in Urban KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa

Objectives: To assess the prevalence and predictors of unprotected sex among HIV+ individuals in clinical care in urban KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa. Design: Cross-sectional survey of 152 HIV+ individuals attending a hospital-based HIV-clinic. Methods: Structured interviews were conducted by bilingual interviewers. Sexual risk behaviour in the preceding 3 months was assessed via event counts. Results: In one of the first studies of its kind in South Africa we found that nearly half of the sample reported vaginal or anal sex during the preceding 3 months, and 30% of these patients reported unprotected vaginal or anal sex. Among sexually active patients, a total of 171 unprotected sex events were reported, 40% of which were with partners perceived to be HIV negative or HIV-status unknown. Nine such partners were potentially exposed to HIV. Alcohol use during sex, being forced to have sex, sex with a perceived HIV+ partner, and sex with a casual partner predicted more unprotected sex, whereas HIV-status disclosure was related to less unprotected sex. Conclusions: HIV+ individuals in clinical care in South Africa may engage in unprotected sex that place others at risk of HIV infection and themselves at risk for infection with STIs. With a national ARV rollout currently underway in South Africa, increasing numbers of HIV+ individuals are entering care. This affords a crucial opportunity to link HIV prevention with HIV care, an approach that aims to reduce transmission risk behaviour among HIV+ individuals and is consistent with international agencies’ current prevention priorities

Exhaled Nitric Oxide is Not a Biomarker for Pulmonary Tuberculosis.

To reduce transmission of tuberculosis (TB) in resource-limited countries where TB remains a major cause of mortality, novel diagnostic tools are urgently needed. We evaluated the fractional concentration of exhaled nitric oxide (FeNO) as an easily measured, noninvasive potential biomarker for diagnosis and monitoring of treatment response in participants with pulmonary TB including multidrug resistant-TB in Lima, Peru. In a longitudinal study however, we found no differences in baseline median FeNO levels between 38 TB participants and 93 age-matched controls (13 parts per billion [ppb] [interquartile range (IQR) = 8-26] versus 15 ppb [IQR = 12-24]), and there was no change over 60 days of treatment (15 ppb [IQR = 10-19] at day 60). Taking this and previous evidence together, we conclude FeNO is not of value in either the diagnosis of pulmonary TB or as a marker of treatment response

A Second Giant Planet in 3:2 Mean-Motion Resonance in the HD 204313 System

We present 8 years of high-precision radial velocity (RV) data for HD 204313 from the 2.7 m Harlan J. Smith Telescope at McDonald Observatory. The star is known to have a giant planet (M sin i = 3.5 M_J) on a ~1900-day orbit, and a Neptune-mass planet at 0.2 AU. Using our own data in combination with the published CORALIE RVs of Segransan et al. (2010), we discover an outer Jovian (M sin i = 1.6 M_J) planet with P ~ 2800 days. Our orbital fit suggests the planets are in a 3:2 mean motion resonance, which would potentially affect their stability. We perform a detailed stability analysis, and verify the planets must be in resonance.Comment: Accepted for publication in Ap