Risk, Unexpected Uncertainty, and Estimation Uncertainty: Bayesian Learning in Unstable Settings

Recently, evidence has emerged that humans approach learning using Bayesian updating rather than (model-free) reinforcement algorithms in a six-arm restless bandit problem. Here, we investigate what this implies for human appreciation of uncertainty. In our task, a Bayesian learner distinguishes three equally salient levels of uncertainty. First, the Bayesian perceives irreducible uncertainty or risk: even knowing the payoff probabilities of a given arm, the outcome remains uncertain. Second, there is (parameter) estimation uncertainty or ambiguity: payoff probabilities are unknown and need to be estimated. Third, the outcome probabilities of the arms change: the sudden jumps are referred to as unexpected uncertainty. We document how the three levels of uncertainty evolved during the course of our experiment and how it affected the learning rate. We then zoom in on estimation uncertainty, which has been suggested to be a driving force in exploration, in spite of evidence of widespread aversion to ambiguity. Our data corroborate the latter. We discuss neural evidence that foreshadowed the ability of humans to distinguish between the three levels of uncertainty. Finally, we investigate the boundaries of human capacity to implement Bayesian learning. We repeat the experiment with different instructions, reflecting varying levels of structural uncertainty. Under this fourth notion of uncertainty, choices were no better explained by Bayesian updating than by (model-free) reinforcement learning. Exit questionnaires revealed that participants remained unaware of the presence of unexpected uncertainty and failed to acquire the right model with which to implement Bayesian updating

A 2017 Horizon Scan of Emerging Issues for Global Conservation and Biological Diversity

We present the results of our eighth annual horizon scan of emerging issues likely to affect global biological diversity, the environment, and conservation efforts in the future. The potential effects of these novel issues might not yet be fully recognized or understood by the global conservation community, and the issues can be regarded as both opportunities and risks. A diverse international team with collective expertise in horizon scanning, science communication, and conservation research, practice, and policy reviewed 100 potential issues and identified 15 that qualified as emerging, with potential substantial global effects. These issues include new developments in energy storage and fuel production, sand extraction, potential solutions to combat coral bleaching and invasive marine species, and blockchain technology.Cambridge Conservation Initiative, funded by the Natural Environment Research Council and the Royal Society for the Protection of Birds, Arcadia, Natural Environment Research Council (Grant ID: NE/N014472/1

Guillain-Barré syndrome: a century of progress

In 1916, Guillain, Barré and Strohl reported on two cases of acute flaccid paralysis with high cerebrospinal fluid protein levels and normal cell counts — novel findings that identified the disease we now know as Guillain–Barré syndrome (GBS). 100 years on, we have made great progress with the clinical and pathological characterization of GBS. Early clinicopathological and animal studies indicated that GBS was an immune-mediated demyelinating disorder, and that severe GBS could result in secondary axonal injury; the current treatments of plasma exchange and intravenous immunoglobulin, which were developed in the 1980s, are based on this premise. Subsequent work has, however, shown that primary axonal injury can be the underlying disease. The association of Campylobacter jejuni strains has led to confirmation that anti-ganglioside antibodies are pathogenic and that axonal GBS involves an antibody and complement-mediated disruption of nodes of Ranvier, neuromuscular junctions and other neuronal and glial membranes. Now, ongoing clinical trials of the complement inhibitor eculizumab are the first targeted immunotherapy in GBS

The proteome of neural stem cells from adult rat hippocampus

BACKGROUND: Hippocampal neural stem cells (HNSC) play an important role in cerebral plasticity in the adult brain and may contribute to tissue repair in neurological disease. To describe their biological potential with regard to plasticity, proliferation, or differentiation, it is important to know the cellular composition of their proteins, subsumed by the term proteome. RESULTS: Here, we present for the first time a proteomic database for HNSC isolated from the brains of adult rats and cultured for 10 weeks. Cytosolic proteins were extracted and subjected to two-dimensional gel electrophoresis followed by protein identification through mass spectrometry, database search, and gel matching. We could map about 1141 ± 209 (N = 5) protein spots for each gel, of which 266 could be identified. We could group the identified proteins into several functional categories including metabolism, protein folding, energy metabolism and cellular respiration, as well as cytoskeleton, Ca(2+ )signaling pathways, cell cycle regulation, proteasome and protein degradation. We also found proteins belonging to detoxification, neurotransmitter metabolism, intracellular signaling pathways, and regulation of DNA transcription and RNA processing. CONCLUSIONS: The HNSC proteome database is a useful inventory which will allow to specify changes in the cellular protein expression pattern due to specific activated or suppressed pathways during differentiation or proliferation of neural stem cells. Several proteins could be identified in the HNSC proteome which are related to differentiation and plasticity, indicating activated functional pathways. Moreover, we found a protein for which no expression has been described in brain cells before

Co-ordinated Gene Expression in the Liver and Spleen during Schistosoma japonicum Infection Regulates Cell Migration

Determining the molecular events induced in the spleen during schistosome infection is an essential step in better understanding the immunopathogenesis of schistosomiasis and the mechanisms by which schistosomes modulate the host immune response. The present study defines the transcriptional and cellular events occurring in the murine spleen during the progression of Schistosoma japonicum infection. Additionally, we compared and contrasted these results with those we have previously reported for the liver. Microarray analysis combined with flow cytometry and histochemistry demonstrated that transcriptional changes occurring in the spleen were closely related to changes in cellular composition. Additionally, the presence of alternatively activated macrophages, as indicated by up-regulation of Chi3l3 and Chi3l4 and expansion of F4/80+ macrophages, together with enhanced expression of the immunoregulatory genes ANXA1 and CAMP suggests the spleen may be an important site for the control of S. japonicum-induced immune responses. The most striking difference between the transcriptional profiles of the infected liver and spleen was the contrasting expression of chemokines and cell adhesion molecules. Lymphocyte chemokines, including the homeostatic chemokines CXCL13, CCL19 and CCL21, were significantly down-regulated in the spleen but up-regulated in the liver. Eosinophil (CCL11, CCL24), neutrophil (CXCL1) and monocyte (CXCL14, CCL12) chemokines and the cell adhesion molecules VCAM1, NCAM1, PECAM1 were up-regulated in the liver but unchanged in the spleen. Chemokines up-regulated in both organs were expressed at significantly higher levels in the liver. Co-ordinated expression of these genes probably contributes to the development of a chemotactic signalling gradient that promotes recruitment of effector cells to the liver, thereby facilitating the development of hepatic granulomas and fibrosis. Together these data provide, for the first time, a comprehensive overview of the molecular events occurring in the spleen during schistosomiasis and will substantially further our understanding of the local and systemic mechanisms driving the immunopathogenesis of this disease

Direct Regulation of Striated Muscle Myosins by Nitric Oxide and Endogenous Nitrosothiols

, both through activation of guanylyl cyclase and through modification of cysteines in proteins to yield S-nitrosothiols. While NO affects the contractile apparatus directly, the identities of the target myofibrillar proteins remain unknown. Here we report that nitrogen oxides directly regulate striated muscle myosins..These data show that nitrosylation signaling acts as a molecular “gear shift” for myosin—an altogether novel mechanism by which striated muscle and cellular biomechanics may be regulated

Protecting tropical forests from the rapid expansion of rubber using carbon payments

Expansion of Hevea brasiliensis rubber plantations is a resurgent driver of deforestation, carbon emissions, and biodiversity loss in Southeast Asia. Southeast Asian rubber extent is massive, equivalent to 67% of oil palm, with rapid further expansion predicted. Results-based carbon finance could dis-incentivise forest conversion to rubber, but efficacy will be limited unless payments match, or at least approach, the costs of avoided deforestation. These include opportunity costs (timber and rubber profits), plus carbon finance scheme setup (transaction) and implementation costs. Using comprehensive Cambodian forest data, exploring scenarios of selective logging and conversion, and assuming land-use choice is based on net present value, we find that carbon prices of $30-$51 per tCO2are needed to break even against costs, higher than those currently paid on carbon markets or through carbon funds. To defend forests from rubber, either carbon prices must be increased, or other strategies are needed, such as corporate zero-deforestation pledges, and governmental regulation and enforcement of forest protection

A Conserved Multi-Gene Family Induces Cross-Reactive Antibodies Effective in Defense against Plasmodium falciparum

BACKGROUND: Two related merozoite surface proteins, MSP3 and MSP6, have previously been identified as targets of antibody-dependent cellular inhibition (ADCI), a protective mechanism against Plasmodium falciparum malaria. Both MSP3 and MSP6 share a common characteristic small N-terminal signature amino-acid stretch (NLRNA/G), a feature similar to MSP3-like orthologs identified in other human and primate malaria parasites. METHODS/RESULTS: This signature amino-acid sequence led to the identification of eight ORFs contiguously located on P. falciparum chromosome 10. Our subsequent investigations on their expression, localization, sequence conservation, epitope sharing, immunogenicity and the functional role of antibodies in defense are reported here. Six members of P. falciparum MSP3-multigene family share similar sequence organization within their C-terminal regions, are simultaneously expressed as merozoite surface proteins and are highly conserved among parasite isolates. Each of these proteins is a target of naturally occurring antibodies effective at parasite killing in ADCI assays. Moreover, both naturally occurring antibodies and those generated by immunization display cross-reactivity with other members of the family and exhibit varied binding avidities. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: The unusual characteristics of the MSP3 multi-gene family lead us to hypothesize that the simultaneous expression of targets eliciting cross-reactive antibody responses capable of controlling parasite densities could represent an immune process selected through evolution to maintain homeostasis between P. falciparum and human hosts; a process that allows the continuous transmission of the parasite without killing the host. Our observations also have practical consequences for vaccine development by suggesting MSP3 vaccine efficacy might be improved when combined with the various C-terminus regions of the MSP3 family members to generate a wider range of antibodies acting and to increase vaccine immunogenicity in varied human genetic backgrounds

Defining Plasmodium falciparum Treatment in South West Asia: A Randomized Trial Comparing Artesunate or Primaquine Combined with Chloroquine or SP

INTRODUCTION: Antimalarial resistance has led to a global policy of artemisinin-based combination therapy. Despite growing resistance chloroquine (CQ) remained until recently the official first-line treatment for falciparum malaria in Pakistan, with sulfadoxine-pyrimethamine (SP) second-line. Co-treatment with the gametocytocidal primaquine (PQ) is recommended for transmission control in South Asia. The relative effect of artesunate (AS) or primaquine, as partner drugs, on clinical outcomes and gametocyte carriage in this setting were unknown. METHODS: A single-blinded, randomized trial among Afghan refugees in Pakistan compared six treatment arms: CQ; CQ+(single-dose)PQ; CQ+(3 d)AS; SP; SP+(single-dose)PQ, and SP+(3 d)AS. The objectives were to compare treatment failure rates and effect on gametocyte carriage, of CQ or SP monotherapy against the respective combinations (PQ or AS). Outcomes included trophozoite and gametocyte clearance (read by light microscopy), and clinical and parasitological failure. FINDINGS: A total of 308 (87%) patients completed the trial. Failure rates by day 28 were: CQ 55/68 (81%); CQ+AS 19/67 (28%), SP 4/41 (9.8%), SP+AS 1/41 (2.4%). The addition of PQ to CQ or SP did not affect failure rates (CQ+PQ 49/67 (73%) failed; SP+PQ 5/33 (16%) failed). AS was superior to PQ at clearing gametocytes; gametocytes were seen on d7 in 85% of CQ, 40% of CQ+PQ, 21% of CQ+AS, 91% of SP, 76% of SP+PQ and 23% of SP+AS treated patients. PQ was more effective at clearing older gametocyte infections whereas AS was more effective at preventing emergence of mature gametocytes, except in cases that recrudesced. CONCLUSIONS: CQ is no longer appropriate by itself or in combination. These findings influenced the replacement of CQ with SP+AS for first-line treatment of uncomplicated falciparum malaria in the WHO Eastern Mediterranean Region. The threat of SP resistance remains as SP monotherapy is still common. Three day AS was superior to single-dose PQ for reducing gametocyte carriage. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov NCT00959517