A probabilistic analysis of argument cogency

This paper offers a probabilistic treatment of the conditions for argument cogency as endorsed in informal logic: acceptability, relevance, and sufficiency. Treating a natural language argument as a reason-claim-complex, our analysis identifies content features of defeasible argument on which the RSA conditions depend, namely: change in the commitment to the reason, the reason’s sensitivity and selectivity to the claim, one’s prior commitment to the claim, and the contextually determined thresholds of acceptability for reasons and for claims. Results contrast with, and may indeed serve to correct, the informal understanding and applications of the RSA criteria concerning their conceptual dependence, their function as update-thresholds, and their status as obligatory rather than permissive norms, but also show how these formal and informal normative approachs can in fact align

Postpartum mental health after Hurricane Katrina: A cohort study

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Natural disaster is often a cause of psychopathology, and women are vulnerable to post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD) and depression. Depression is also common after a woman gives birth. However, no research has addressed postpartum women's mental health after natural disaster.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Interviews were conducted in 2006–2007 with women who had been pregnant during or shortly after Hurricane Katrina. 292 New Orleans and Baton Rouge women were interviewed at delivery and 2 months postpartum. Depression was assessed using the Edinburgh Depression Scale and PTSD using the Post-Traumatic Stress Checklist. Women were asked about their experience of the hurricane with questions addressing threat, illness, loss, and damage. Chi-square tests and log-binomial/Poisson models were used to calculate associations and relative risks (RR).</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Black women and women with less education were more likely to have had a serious experience of the hurricane. 18% of the sample met the criteria for depression and 13% for PTSD at two months postpartum. Feeling that one's life was in danger was associated with depression and PTSD, as were injury to a family member and severe impact on property. Overall, two or more severe experiences of the storm was associated with an increased risk for both depression (relative risk (RR) 1.77, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.08–2.89) and PTSD (RR 3.68, 95% CI 1.80–7.52).</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>Postpartum women who experience natural disaster severely are at increased risk for mental health problems, but overall rates of depression and PTSD do not seem to be higher than in studies of the general population.</p

Early warning signals of simulated Amazon rainforest dieback

Copyright © The Author(s) 2013. This article is published with open access at Springerlink.comWe test proposed generic tipping point early warning signals in a complex climate model (HadCM3) which simulates future dieback of the Amazon rainforest. The equation governing tree cover in the model suggests that zero and non-zero stable states of tree cover co-exist, and a transcritical bifurcation is approached as productivity declines. Forest dieback is a non-linear change in the non-zero tree cover state, as productivity declines, which should exhibit critical slowing down. We use an ensemble of versions of HadCM3 to test for the corresponding early warning signals. However, on approaching simulated Amazon dieback, expected early warning signals of critical slowing down are not seen in tree cover, vegetation carbon or net primary productivity. The lack of a convincing trend in autocorrelation appears to be a result of the system being forced rapidly and non-linearly. There is a robust rise in variance with time, but this can be explained by increases in inter-annual temperature and precipitation variability that force the forest. This failure of generic early warning indicators led us to seek more system-specific, observable indicators of changing forest stability in the model. The sensitivity of net ecosystem productivity to temperature anomalies (a negative correlation) generally increases as dieback approaches, which is attributable to a non-linear sensitivity of ecosystem respiration to temperature. As a result, the sensitivity of atmospheric CO2 anomalies to temperature anomalies (a positive correlation) increases as dieback approaches. This stability indicator has the benefit of being readily observable in the real world.NERCJoint DECC/Defra Met Office Hadley Centre Climate ProgrammeUniversity of Exete

Increased therapeutic potential of an experimental anti-mitotic inhibitor SB715992 by genistein in PC-3 human prostate cancer cell line

BACKGROUND: Kinesin spindle proteins (KSP) are motor proteins that play an essential role in mitotic spindle formation. HsEg5, a KSP, is responsible for the formation of the bipolar spindle, which is critical for proper cell division during mitosis. The function of HsEg5 provides a novel target for the manipulation of the cell cycle and the induction of apoptosis. SB715992, an experimental KSP inhibitor, has been shown to perturb bipolar spindle formation, thus making it an excellent candidate for anti-cancer agent. Our major objective was a) to investigate the cell growth inhibitory effects of SB715992 on PC-3 human prostate cancer cell line, b) to investigate whether the growth inhibitory effects of SB715992 could be enhanced when combined with genistein, a naturally occurring isoflavone and, c) to determine gene expression profile to establish molecular mechanism of action of SB715992. METHODS: PC-3 cells were treated with varying concentration of SB715992, 30 μM of genistein, and SB715992 plus 30 μM of genistein. After treatments, PC-3 cells were assayed for cell proliferation, induction of apoptosis, and alteration in gene and protein expression using cell inhibition assay, apoptosis assay, microarray analysis, real-time RT-PCR, and Western Blot analysis. RESULTS: SB715992 inhibited cell proliferation and induced apoptosis in PC-3 cells. SB715992 was found to regulate the expression of genes related to the control of cell proliferation, cell cycle, cell signaling pathways, and apoptosis. In addition, our results showed that combination treatment with SB715992 and genistein caused significantly greater cell growth inhibition and induction of apoptosis compared to the effects of either agent alone. CONCLUSION: Our results clearly show that SB715992 is a potent anti-tumor agent whose therapeutic effects could be enhanced by genistein. Hence, we believe that SB715992 could be a novel agent for the treatment of prostate cancer with greater success when combined with a non-toxic natural agent like genistein

A Triple Protostar System Formed via Fragmentation of a Gravitationally Unstable Disk

Binary and multiple star systems are a frequent outcome of the star formation process, and as a result, almost half of all sun-like stars have at least one companion star. Theoretical studies indicate that there are two main pathways that can operate concurrently to form binary/multiple star systems: large scale fragmentation of turbulent gas cores and filaments or smaller scale fragmentation of a massive protostellar disk due to gravitational instability. Observational evidence for turbulent fragmentation on scales of $>$1000~AU has recently emerged. Previous evidence for disk fragmentation was limited to inferences based on the separations of more-evolved pre-main sequence and protostellar multiple systems. The triple protostar system L1448 IRS3B is an ideal candidate to search for evidence of disk fragmentation. L1448 IRS3B is in an early phase of the star formation process, likely less than 150,000 years in age, and all protostars in the system are separated by $<$200~AU. Here we report observations of dust and molecular gas emission that reveal a disk with spiral structure surrounding the three protostars. Two protostars near the center of the disk are separated by 61 AU, and a tertiary protostar is coincident with a spiral arm in the outer disk at a 183 AU separation. The inferred mass of the central pair of protostellar objects is $\sim$1 M$_{sun}$, while the disk surrounding the three protostars has a total mass of $\sim$0.30 M_{\sun}. The tertiary protostar itself has a minimum mass of $\sim$0.085 M$_{sun}$. We demonstrate that the disk around L1448 IRS3B appears susceptible to disk fragmentation at radii between 150~AU and 320~AU, overlapping with the location of the tertiary protostar. This is consistent with models for a protostellar disk that has recently undergone gravitational instability, spawning one or two companion stars.Comment: Published in Nature on Oct. 27th. 24 pages, 8 figure

Correlation Effects on Stability in Pu Metal and Its Alloys

The existence of six crystallographic allotropes from room temperature up to the solid-liquid transition just above 913 K at atmospheric pressure makes solid Plutonium unique among the elements in the periodic table. Among these phases (labeled {alpha}, {beta}, {gamma}, {delta}{delta}{prime}), and {var_epsilon}, the {delta} phase, stable between 593 K and 736 K, has commanded considerable interest in the metallurgical and solid state communities. In contrast to the low-temperature monoclinic {alpha} phase, which is brittle, the face-centered cubic (fcc) {delta} phase is ductile, a property that makes it convenient for engineering applications. This phase can also be stabilized through alloying with a number of other elements such as Ga, Al, Sc, and Am

Pentastatin-1, a collagen IV derived 20-mer peptide, suppresses tumor growth in a small cell lung cancer xenograft model

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Angiogenesis is the formation of neovasculature from a pre-existing vascular network. Progression of solid tumors including lung cancer is angiogenesis-dependent. We previously introduced a bioinformatics-based methodology to identify endogenous anti-angiogenic peptide sequences, and validated these predictions <it>in vitro </it>in human umbilical vein endothelial cell (HUVEC) proliferation and migration assays.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>One family of peptides with high activity is derived from the α-fibrils of type IV collagen. Based on the results from the <it>in vitro </it>screening, we have evaluated the ability of a 20 amino acid peptide derived from the α5 fibril of type IV collagen, pentastatin-1, to suppress vessel growth in an angioreactor-based directed <it>in vivo </it>angiogenesis assay (DIVAA). In addition, pentastatin-1 suppressed tumor growth with intraperitoneal peptide administration in a small cell lung cancer (SCLC) xenograft model in nude mice using the NCI-H82 human cancer cell line.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Pentastatin-1 decreased the invasion of vessels into angioreactors <it>in vivo </it>in a dose dependent manner. The peptide also decreased the rate of tumor growth and microvascular density <it>in vivo </it>in a small cell lung cancer xenograft model.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>The peptide treatment significantly decreased the invasion of microvessels in angioreactors and the rate of tumor growth in the xenograft model, indicating potential treatment for angiogenesis-dependent disease, and for translational development as a therapeutic agent for lung cancer.</p

Disease-specific survival for limited-stage small-cell lung cancer affected by statistical method of assessment

BACKGROUND: In general, prognosis and impact of prognostic/predictive factors are assessed with Kaplan-Meier plots and/or the Cox proportional hazard model. There might be substantive differences from the results using these models for the same patients, if different statistical methods were used, for example, Boag log-normal (cure-rate model), or log-normal survival analysis. METHODS: Cohort of 244 limited-stage small-cell lung cancer patients, were accrued between 1981 and 1998, and followed to the end of 2005. The endpoint was death with or from lung cancer, for disease-specific survival (DSS). DSS at 1-, 3- and 5-years, with 95% confidence limits, are reported for all patients using the Boag, Kaplan-Meier, Cox, and log-normal survival analysis methods. Factors with significant effects on DSS were identified with step-wise forward multivariate Cox and log-normal survival analyses. Then, DSS was ascertained for patients with specific characteristics defined by these factors. RESULTS: The median follow-up of those alive was 9.5 years. The lack of events after 1966 days precluded comparison after 5 years. DSS assessed by the four methods in the full cohort differed by 0–2% at 1 year, 0–12% at 3 years, and 0–1% at 5 years. Log-normal survival analysis indicated DSS of 38% at 3 years, 10–12% higher than with other methods; univariate 95% confidence limits were non-overlapping. Surgical resection, hemoglobin level, lymph node involvement, and superior vena cava (SVC) obstruction significantly impacted DSS. DSS assessed by the Cox and log-normal survival analysis methods for four clinical risk groups differed by 1–6% at 1 year, 15–26% at 3 years, and 0–12% at 5 years; multivariate 95% confidence limits were overlapping in all instances. CONCLUSION: Surgical resection, hemoglobin level, lymph node involvement, and superior vena cava (SVC) obstruction all significantly impacted DSS. Apparent DSS for patients was influenced by the statistical methods of assessment. This would be clinically relevant in the development or improvement of clinical management strategies

Disparities and risks of sexually transmissible infections among men who have sex with men in China: a meta-analysis and data synthesis.

BACKGROUND: Sexually transmitted infections (STIs), including Hepatitis B and C virus, are emerging public health risks in China, especially among men who have sex with men (MSM). This study aims to assess the magnitude and risks of STIs among Chinese MSM. METHODS: Chinese and English peer-reviewed articles were searched in five electronic databases from January 2000 to February 2013. Pooled prevalence estimates for each STI infection were calculated using meta-analysis. Infection risks of STIs in MSM, HIV-positive MSM and male sex workers (MSW) were obtained. This review followed the PRISMA guidelines and was registered in PROSPERO. RESULTS: Eighty-eight articles (11 in English and 77 in Chinese) investigating 35,203 MSM in 28 provinces were included in this review. The prevalence levels of STIs among MSM were 6.3% (95% CI: 3.5-11.0%) for chlamydia, 1.5% (0.7-2.9%) for genital wart, 1.9% (1.3-2.7%) for gonorrhoea, 8.9% (7.8-10.2%) for hepatitis B (HBV), 1.2% (1.0-1.6%) for hepatitis C (HCV), 66.3% (57.4-74.1%) for human papillomavirus (HPV), 10.6% (6.2-17.6%) for herpes simplex virus (HSV-2) and 4.3% (3.2-5.8%) for Ureaplasma urealyticum. HIV-positive MSM have consistently higher odds of all these infections than the broader MSM population. As a subgroup of MSM, MSW were 2.5 (1.4-4.7), 5.7 (2.7-12.3), and 2.2 (1.4-3.7) times more likely to be infected with chlamydia, gonorrhoea and HCV than the broader MSM population, respectively. CONCLUSION: Prevalence levels of STIs among MSW were significantly higher than the broader MSM population. Co-infection of HIV and STIs were prevalent among Chinese MSM. Integration of HIV and STIs healthcare and surveillance systems is essential in providing effective HIV/STIs preventive measures and treatments. TRIAL REGISTRATION: PROSPERO NO: CRD42013003721

Wingless Signalling Alters the Levels, Subcellular Distribution and Dynamics of Armadillo and E-Cadherin in Third Instar Larval Wing Imaginal Discs

Background: Armadillo, the Drosophila orthologue of vertebrate beta-catenin, plays a dual role as the key effector of Wingless/Wnt1 signalling, and as a bridge between E-Cadherin and the actin cytoskeleton. In the absence of ligand, Armadillo is phosphorylated and targeted to the proteasome. Upon binding of Wg to its receptors, the "degradation complex'' is inhibited; Armadillo is stabilised and enters the nucleus to transcribe targets. Methodology/Principal Findings: Although the relationship between signalling and adhesion has been extensively studied, few in vivo data exist concerning how the "transcriptional'' and "adhesive'' pools of Armadillo are regulated to orchestrate development. We have therefore addressed how the subcellular distribution of Armadillo and its association with E-Cadherin change in larval wing imaginal discs, under wild type conditions and upon signalling. Using confocal microscopy, we show that Armadillo and E-Cadherin are spatio-temporally regulated during development, and that a punctate species becomes concentrated in a subapical compartment in response to Wingless. In order to further dissect this phenomenon, we overexpressed Armadillo mutants exhibiting different levels of activity and stability, but retaining E-Cadherin binding. Arm(S10) displaces endogenous Armadillo from the AJ and the basolateral membrane, while leaving E-Cadherin relatively undisturbed. Surprisingly, Delta NArm(1-155) caused displacement of both Armadillo and E-Cadherin, results supported by our novel method of quantification. However, only membrane-targeted Myr-Delta NArm(1-155) produced comparable nuclear accumulation of Armadillo and signalling to Arm(S10). These experiments also highlighted a row of cells at the A/P boundary depleted of E-Cadherin at the AJ, but containing actin. Conclusions/Significance: Taken together, our results provide in vivo evidence for a complex non-linear relationship between Armadillo levels, subcellular distribution and Wingless signalling. Moreover, this study highlights the importance of Armadillo in regulating the subcellular distribution of E-CadherinPublisher PDFPeer reviewe