Evaluation of generation expansion investment under competitive market environment

This paper proposes a new approach of generation expansion planning and its risk assessment under the competitive market environment. Different from the traditional probabilistic production costing (PPC) method under monopoly environment which is based on the deterministic generator loading priority list, the uncertainties of biddings for long-term contracts in electricity market are introduced into the new model. Based on the probability distribution of the surplus on bidding price over marginal cost, the distribution of expected generated energy for a given period can be achieved to calculate the profit of a generator. In order to manage the risks of the investment on generation expansion project, a risk assessment tool called Conditional Value at Risk (CVaR) is used. It gives the investors an intuitionistic criterion for making investment decision. A numerical example is given in this paper to valid the method. ©2005 IEEE.published_or_final_versio

Risk assessment of generation investment

Session 15: Paper 2This paper proposes an improved approach to risk assessment of generation investment in the new deregulated environment using the option pricing theory. A more realistic model for electricity price in the application of real option pricing method for generation asset valuation is proposed, which takes into account its fluctuation and uncertainties, and, more importantly, its daily, weekly and annual cyclic patterns, which is a unique characteristic of electricity price. Base on such a price process, the generation asset can be evaluated by the application of real option method. In order to manage the risks of the investment on generation expansion project, risk assessment tools such as Value at Risk (VaR) and Conditional Value at Risk (CVaR) may be used to provide the investors with tools for more informed decisions. A numerical example is given to illustrate the proposed method.postprintThe 15th Power Systems Computation Conference (PSCC'05), Liege, Belgium, 22-26 August 2005. In Proceedings of 15th PSCC, 2005, p. 1-

Efficient Euclidean projections onto the intersection of norm balls

Using sparse-inducing norms to learn robust models has received increasing attention from many fields for its attractive properties. Projection-based methods have been widely applied to learning tasks constrained by such norms. As a key building block of these methods, an efficient operator for Euclidean projection onto the intersection of ℓ 1 and ℓ 1,q norm balls (q = 2 or ∞) is proposed in this paper. We prove that the projection can be reduced to finding the root of an auxiliary function which is piecewise smooth and monotonic. Hence, a bisection algorithm is sufficient to solve the problem. We show that the time complexity of our solution is O(n + g log g) for q = 2 and O(n log n) for q = ∞), where n is the dimensionality of the vector to be projected and g is the number of disjoint groups; we confirm this complexity by experimentation. Empirical study reveals that our method achieves significantly better performance than classical methods in terms of running time and memory usage. We further show that embedded with our efficient projection operator, projection-based algorithms can solve regression problems with composite norm constraints more efficiently than other methods and give superior accuracy. Copyright 2012 by the author(s)/owner(s).postprintThe 29th International Conference on Machine Learning (ICML 2012). Edinburgh, Scotland, UK., 27 June-3 July 2012 In Proceedings of the 29th International Conference on Machine Learning, ICML-12, 2012, v. 1, p. 433-44

Developing a voltage-stability-constrained security assessment system part I: Determination of power system voltage security operation limits

The method for determining the voltage security operation limits in a practical voltage security analysis (VSA) system based on VSAT software for large power systems is introduced in this paper. These operation limits include bus voltage limits, branch/corridor transfer power limits and P-load limit of the whole system. The voltage security operation limits are determined by the most critical contingency among the studied contingency set. The most critical contingency determines the P-load limit of the whole system, and all kinds of operation parameter limits are operation parameter values corresponding to this P-load limit under pre-contingency. An operation parameter limit is upper limit if the function relationship between this operation parameter and load power is an increasing curve, or lower limit if the function relationship between this operation parameter and load power is an decreasing curve. These operation parameter limits are helpful for operators to monitor the system operation state. © 2005 IEEE.published_or_final_versio

Developing a voltage-stability-constrained security assessment system part II : Structure and function design and technology used

This is the second part in a two-part paper on the development of a voltage stability constrained security assessment system (VSC-SAS). In this part, overall VSC-SAS structure and function design and technology used will be presented. The system is expected to be used in both on-line and off-line modes. In on-line mode, on-line SCADA/EMS data will be used for VSC-SAS use; while in off-line mode (usually day-ahead calculation), historical data can be used for VSC-SAS. Both results (i.e. system operation limits) can be selected to compare with real time operation conditions and supervision power system operation security margin. © 2005 IEEE.published_or_final_versio

N-of-1 study of weight loss maintenance assessing predictors of physical activity, adherence to weight loss plan and weight change

OBJECTIVE: Behaviour change interventions are effective in supporting individuals to achieve clinically significant weight loss, but weight loss maintenance (WLM) is less often attained. This study examined predictive variables associated with WLM. DESIGN: N-of-1 study with daily ecological momentary assessment combined with objective measurement of weight and physical activity, collected with wireless devices (Fitbit™) for six months. Eight previously obese adults who had lost over 5% of their body weight in the past year took part. Data were analysed using time series methods. MAIN OUTCOMES MEASURES: Predictor variables were based on five theoretical themes: maintenance motives, self-regulation, personal resources, habits, and environmental influences. Dependent variables were: objectively estimated step count and weight, and self-reported WLM plan adherence. RESULTS: For all participants, daily fluctuations in self-reported adherence to their WLM plan were significantly associated with most of the explanatory variables, including maintenance motivation and satisfaction with outcomes, self-regulation, habit, and stable environment. Personal resources were not a consistent predictor of plan adherence. CONCLUSION: This is the first study to assess theoretical predictions of WLM within individuals. WLM is a dynamic process including the interplay of motivation, self-regulation, habit, resources, and perceptions of environmental context. Individuals maintaining their weight have unique psychological profiles which could be accounted for in interventions.Funding for Fuse and CEDAR from the British Heart Foundation, Cancer Research UK, Economic and Social Research Council, Medical Research Council, the National Institute for Health Research, and the Welcome Trust, under the auspices of the UK Clinical Research Collaboration, is gratefully acknowledged

IL11 (Interleukin-11) causes emphysematous lung disease in a mouse model of marfan syndrome.

BACKGROUND: Marfan Syndrome (MFS) is an inherited connective tissue disorder caused by mutations in the FBN1 (fibrillin-1) gene. Lung abnormalities are common in MFS, but their pathogenesis is poorly understood. IL11 (interleukin-11) causes aortic disease in a mouse model of MFS and was studied here in the lung. METHODS: We examined histological and molecular phenotypes in the lungs of Fbn1C1041G/+ mice (mouse model of Marfan Syndrome [mMFS]), an established mouse model of MFS. To identify IL11-expressing cells, we used immunohistochemistry on lungs of 4- and 16-week-old Fbn1C1041G/+:Il11EGFP/+ reporter mice. We studied the effects of IL11 inhibition by RT-qPCR, immunoblots and histopathology in lungs from genetic or pharmacologic models: (1) 16-week-old IL11 receptor (IL11RA) knockout mMFS mice (Fbn1C1041G/+:Il11ra1-/- mice) and (2) in mMFS mice administered IgG control or interleukin-11 receptor antibodies twice weekly from 4 to 24 weeks of age. RESULTS: mMFS lungs showed progressive loss and enlargement of distal airspaces associated with increased proinflammatory and profibrotic gene expression as well as matrix metalloproteinases 2, 9, and 12. IL11 was increased in mMFS lungs and localized to smooth muscle and endothelial cells in young mMFS mice in the Fbn1C1041G/+:Il11EGFP/+ reporter strain and in fibroblasts, in older mice. In mMFS mice, genetic (Fbn1C1041G/+:Il11ra1-/-) or pharmacologic (anti-interleukin-11 receptor) inhibition of IL11 signaling reduced lung emphysema, fibrosis, and inflammation. This protective effect was associated with reduced pathogenic ERK1/2 signaling and lower metalloproteinase 2, 9, and 12 expression. CONCLUSIONS: IL11 causes lung disease in mMFS. This reveals a shared IL11-driven disease mechanism in lung and aorta in MFS and suggests inhibition of IL11 signaling as a holistic approach for treating multiorgan morbidity in MFS

Be SMART:examining the experience of implementing the NHS Health Check in UK primary care

Background: The NHS Health Check was designed by UK Department of Health to address increased prevalence of cardiovascular disease by identifying risk levels and facilitating behaviour change. It constituted biomedical testing, personalised advice and lifestyle support. The objective of the study was to explore Health Care Professionals' (HCPs) and patients' experiences of delivering and receiving the NHS Health Check in an inner-city region of England. Methods: Patients and HCPs in primary care were interviewed using semi-structured schedules. Data were analysed using Thematic Analysis. Results: Four themes were identified. Firstly, Health Check as a test of 'roadworthiness' for people. The roadworthiness metaphor resonated with some patients but it signified a passive stance toward illness. Some patients described the check as useful in the theme, Health check as revelatory. HCPs found visual aids demonstrating levels of salt/fat/sugar in everyday foods and a 'traffic light' tape measure helpful in communicating such 'revelations' with patients. Being SMART and following the protocolrevealed that few HCPs used SMART goals and few patients spoke of them. HCPs require training to understand their rationale compared with traditional advice-giving. The need for further follow-up revealed disparity in follow-ups and patients were not systematically monitored over time. Conclusions: HCPs' training needs to include the use and evidence of the effectiveness of SMART goals in changing health behaviours. The significance of fidelity to protocol needs to be communicated to HCPs and commissioners to ensure consistency. Monitoring and measurement of follow-up, e.g., tracking of referrals, need to be resourced to provide evidence of the success of the NHS Health Check in terms of healthier lifestyles and reduced CVD risk

Epigenetic Changes of CXCR4 and Its Ligand CXCL12 as Prognostic Factors for Sporadic Breast Cancer

Chemokines and their receptors are involved in the development and cancer progression. The chemokine CXCL12 interacts with its receptor, CXCR4, to promote cellular adhesion, survival, proliferation and migration. The CXCR4 gene is upregulated in several types of cancers, including skin, lung, pancreas, brain and breast tumors. In pancreatic cancer and melanoma, CXCR4 expression is regulated by DNA methylation within its promoter region. In this study we examined the role of cytosine methylation in the regulation of CXCR4 expression in breast cancer cell lines and also correlated the methylation pattern with the clinicopathological aspects of sixty-nine primary breast tumors from a cohort of Brazilian women. RT-PCR showed that the PMC-42, MCF7 and MDA-MB-436 breast tumor cell lines expressed high levels of CXCR4. Conversely, the MDA-MB-435 cell line only expressed CXCR4 after treatment with 5-Aza-CdR, which suggests that CXCR4 expression is regulated by DNA methylation. To confirm this hypothesis, a 184 bp fragment of the CXCR4 gene promoter region was cloned after sodium bisulfite DNA treatment. Sequencing data showed that cell lines that expressed CXCR4 had only 15% of methylated CpG dinucleotides, while the cell line that not have CXCR4 expression, had a high density of methylation (91%). Loss of DNA methylation in the CXCR4 promoter was detected in 67% of the breast cancer analyzed. The absence of CXCR4 methylation was associated with the tumor stage, size, histological grade, lymph node status, ESR1 methylation and CXCL12 methylation, metastasis and patient death. Kaplan-Meier curves demonstrated that patients with an unmethylated CXCR4 promoter had a poorer overall survival and disease-free survival. Furthermore, patients with both CXCL12 methylation and unmethylated CXCR4 had a shorter overall survival and disease-free survival. These findings suggest that the DNA methylation status of both CXCR4 and CXCL12 genes could be used as a biomarker for prognosis in breast cancer

Quantum Correlations in NMR systems

In conventional NMR experiments, the Zeeman energy gaps of the nuclear spin ensembles are much lower than their thermal energies, and accordingly exhibit tiny polarizations. Generally such low-purity quantum states are devoid of quantum entanglement. However, there exist certain nonclassical correlations which can be observed even in such systems. In this chapter, we discuss three such quantum correlations, namely, quantum contextuality, Leggett-Garg temporal correlations, and quantum discord. In each case, we provide a brief theoretical background and then describe some results from NMR experiments.Comment: 21 pages, 7 figure