Sensitivity Analysis for Not-at-Random Missing Data in Trial-Based Cost-Effectiveness Analysis : A Tutorial

Cost-effectiveness analyses (CEA) of randomised controlled trials are a key source of information for health care decision makers. Missing data are, however, a common issue that can seriously undermine their validity. A major concern is that the chance of data being missing may be directly linked to the unobserved value itself [missing not at random (MNAR)]. For example, patients with poorer health may be less likely to complete quality-of-life questionnaires. However, the extent to which this occurs cannot be ascertained from the data at hand. Guidelines recommend conducting sensitivity analyses to assess the robustness of conclusions to plausible MNAR assumptions, but this is rarely done in practice, possibly because of a lack of practical guidance. This tutorial aims to address this by presenting an accessible framework and practical guidance for conducting sensitivity analysis for MNAR data in trial-based CEA. We review some of the methods for conducting sensitivity analysis, but focus on one particularly accessible approach, where the data are multiply-imputed and then modified to reflect plausible MNAR scenarios. We illustrate the implementation of this approach on a weight-loss trial, providing the software code. We then explore further issues around its use in practice

Insertion of an Esterase Gene into a Specific Locust Pathogen (Metarhizium acridum) Enables It to Infect Caterpillars

An enduring theme in pathogenic microbiology is poor understanding of the mechanisms of host specificity. Metarhizium is a cosmopolitan genus of invertebrate pathogens that contains generalist species with broad host ranges such as M. robertsii (formerly known as M. anisopliae var. anisopliae) as well as specialists such as the acridid-specific grasshopper pathogen M. acridum. During growth on caterpillar (Manduca sexta) cuticle, M. robertsii up-regulates a gene (Mest1) that is absent in M. acridum and most other fungi. Disrupting M. robertsii Mest1 reduced virulence and overexpression increased virulence to caterpillars (Galleria mellonella and M. sexta), while virulence to grasshoppers (Melanoplus femurrubrum) was unaffected. When Mest1 was transferred to M. acridum under control of its native M. robertsii promoter, the transformants killed and colonized caterpillars in a similar fashion to M. robertsii. MEST1 localized exclusively to lipid droplets in M. robertsii conidia and infection structures was up-regulated during nutrient deprivation and had esterase activity against lipids with short chain fatty acids. The mobilization of stored lipids was delayed in the Mest1 disruptant mutant. Overall, our results suggest that expression of Mest1 allows rapid hydrolysis of stored lipids, and promotes germination and infection structure formation by M. robertsii during nutrient deprivation and invasion, while Mest1 expression in M. acridum broadens its host range by bypassing the regulatory signals found on natural hosts that trigger the mobilization of endogenous nutrient reserves. This study suggests that speciation in an insect pathogen could potentially be driven by host shifts resulting from changes in a single gene

Anti-inflammatory and analgesic potential of hydrolyzed extract of Agave sisalana Perrine ex Engelm., Asparagaceae

The hemolytic, anti-inflammatory and antinociceptive properties from hydrolyzed extract Agave sisalana Perrine ex Engelm., Asparagaceae (HEAS) was evaluated classic inflammation models. Male Swiss mice and male Wistars rats received HEAS (500 mg/kg) in two administration p.o. and i.p. in saline solution 0.9%. The acid hydrolysis inhibited the hemolytic action of saponins due to the retreat of side chain sugar. The treatment of the ear induced oedema by xylene with HEAS significantly reduced in two routes 13 +/- 1.5 and 10 +/- 0.63 mg, respectively, p.o. and i.p., in comparison with controls 27 1.5 saline and 13.5 +/- 1.2 AAS. The HEAS also diminished edema induced by carrageenin 43 +/- 1.58 mg (p.o.) and 17 +/- 1.26 mg (i.p.), when compared with control groups 52 +/- 1.58 mg (saline) and 10.05 +/- 1.58 (indomethacin). HEAS showed analgesic effects in abdominal constrictions 30.7% (p.o.), 88.7% (i.p.) comparable to that produced by (AAS) 70.6%. However in granuloma cotton pellet a chronic model of inflammation just the i.p. pathway decreased granulomatous tissue (20.4 +/- 1.32 mg) compared with controls 30.5 +/- 2.53 mg (saline) and 20.2 +/- 2.18 mg (dexamethasone). These data suggest that HEAS has anti-inflammatory and analgesic activity on acute and chronic processes.20337638

Markedly Divergent Tree Assemblage Responses to Tropical Forest Loss and Fragmentation across a Strong Seasonality Gradient

We examine the effects of forest fragmentation on the structure and composition of tree assemblages within three seasonal and aseasonal forest types of southern Brazil, including evergreen, Araucaria, and deciduous forests. We sampled three southernmost Atlantic Forest landscapes, including the largest continuous forest protected areas within each forest type. Tree assemblages in each forest type were sampled within 10 plots of 0.1 ha in both continuous forests and 10 adjacent forest fragments. All trees within each plot were assigned to trait categories describing their regeneration strategy, vertical stratification, seed-dispersal mode, seed size, and wood density. We detected differences among both forest types and landscape contexts in terms of overall tree species richness, and the density and species richness of different functional groups in terms of regeneration strategy, seed dispersal mode and woody density. Overall, evergreen forest fragments exhibited the largest deviations from continuous forest plots in assemblage structure. Evergreen, Araucaria and deciduous forests diverge in the functional composition of tree floras, particularly in relation to regeneration strategy and stress tolerance. By supporting a more diversified light-demanding and stress-tolerant flora with reduced richness and abundance of shade-tolerant, old-growth species, both deciduous and Araucaria forest tree assemblages are more intrinsically resilient to contemporary human-disturbances, including fragmentation-induced edge effects, in terms of species erosion and functional shifts. We suggest that these intrinsic differences in the direction and magnitude of responses to changes in landscape structure between forest types should guide a wide range of conservation strategies in restoring fragmented tropical forest landscapes worldwide

A Guide to Handling Missing Data in Cost-Effectiveness Analysis Conducted Within Randomised Controlled Trials

The authors would like to thank Professor Adrian Grant and the team at the University of Aberdeen (Professor Craig Ramsay, Janice Cruden, Charles Boachie, Professor Marion Campbell and Seonaidh Cotton) who kindly allowed the REFLUX dataset to be used for this work, and Eldon Spackman for kindly sharing the Stata (R) code for calculating the probability that an intervention is cost effective following MI. The authors are grateful to the reviewers for their comments, which greatly improved this paper. M. G. is recipient of a Medical Research Council Early Career Fellowship in Economics of Health (grant number: MR/K02177X/1). I. R. W. was supported by the Medical Research Council [Unit Programme U105260558]. No specific funding was obtained to produce this paper. The authors declare no conflicts of interest.Missing data are a frequent problem in cost-effectiveness analysis (CEA) within a randomised controlled trial. Inappropriate methods to handle missing data can lead to misleading results and ultimately can affect the decision of whether an intervention is good value for money. This article provides practical guidance on how to handle missing data in within-trial CEAs following a principled approach: (i) the analysis should be based on a plausible assumption for the missing data mechanism, i.e. whether the probability that data are missing is independent of or dependent on the observed and/or unobserved values; (ii) the method chosen for the base-case should fit with the assumed mechanism; and (iii) sensitivity analysis should be conducted to explore to what extent the results change with the assumption made. This approach is implemented in three stages, which are described in detail: (1) descriptive analysis to inform the assumption on the missing data mechanism; (2) how to choose between alternative methods given their underlying assumptions; and (3) methods for sensitivity analysis. The case study illustrates how to apply this approach in practice, including software code. The article concludes with recommendations for practice and suggestions for future research.Medical Research Council Early Career Fellowship in Economics of Health MR/K02177X/1Medical Research Council UK (MRC) U105260558Medical Research Council UK (MRC) MC_U105260558 MR/K02177X/

A novel method for standardized application of fungal spore coatings for mosquito exposure bioassays

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Interest in the use of fungal entomopathogens against malaria vectors is growing. Fungal spores infect insects via the cuticle and can be applied directly on the insect to evaluate infectivity. For flying insects such as mosquitoes, however, application of fungal suspensions on resting surfaces is more realistic and representative of field settings. For this type of exposure, it is essential to apply specific amounts of fungal spores homogeneously over a surface for testing the effects of fungal dose and exposure time. Contemporary methods such as spraying or brushing spore suspensions onto substrates do not produce the uniformity and consistency that standardized laboratory assays require. Two novel fungus application methods using equipment developed in the paint industry are presented and compared.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Wired, stainless steel K-bars were tested and optimized for coating fungal spore suspensions onto paper substrates. Different solvents and substrates were evaluated. Two types of coating techniques were compared, i.e. manual and automated coating. A standardized bioassay set-up was designed for testing coated spores against malaria mosquitoes.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>K-bar coating provided consistent applications of spore layers onto paper substrates. Viscous Ondina oil formulations were not suitable and significantly reduced spore infectivity. Evaporative Shellsol T solvent dried quickly and resulted in high spore infectivity to mosquitoes. Smooth proofing papers were the most effective substrate and showed higher infectivity than cardboard substrates. Manually and mechanically applied spore coatings showed similar and reproducible effects on mosquito survival. The standardized mosquito exposure bioassay was effective and consistent in measuring effects of fungal dose and exposure time.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>K-bar coating is a simple and consistent method for applying fungal spore suspensions onto paper substrates and can produce coating layers with accurate effective spore concentrations. The mosquito bioassay was suitable for evaluating fungal infectivity and virulence, allowing optimizations of spore dose and exposure time. Use of this standardized application method will help achieve reliable results that are exchangeable between different laboratories.</p