Height and body-mass index trajectories of school-aged children and adolescents from 1985 to 2019 in 200 countries: pooled analysis of 2,086 population-based studies with 65 million participants

Background Comparable global data on health and nutrition of school-aged children and adolescents are scarce. We aimed to estimate age trajectories and time trends in mean height and mean body-mass index (BMI), which measures weight gain beyond what is expected from height gain, for school-aged children and adolescents. Methods For this pooled analysis, we used a database of cardiometabolic risk factors collated by the Non-Communicable Disease Risk Factor Collaboration. We applied a Bayesian hierarchical model to estimate trends from 1985 to 2019 in mean height and mean BMI in 1-year age groups for ages 5–19 years. The model allowed for non-linear changes over time in mean height and mean BMI and for non-linear changes with age of children and adolescents, including periods of rapid growth during adolescence. Findings We pooled data from 2181 population-based studies, with measurements of height and weight in 65 million participants in 200 countries and territories. In 2019, we estimated a difference of 20 cm or higher in mean height of 19-year-old adolescents between countries with the tallest populations (the Netherlands, Montenegro, Estonia, and Bosnia and Herzegovina for boys; and the Netherlands, Montenegro, Denmark, and Iceland for girls) and those with the shortest populations (Timor-Leste, Laos, Solomon Islands, and Papua New Guinea for boys; and Guatemala, Bangladesh, Nepal, and Timor-Leste for girls). In the same year, the difference between the highest mean BMI (in Pacific island countries, Kuwait, Bahrain, The Bahamas, Chile, the USA, and New Zealand for both boys and girls and in South Africa for girls) and lowest mean BMI (in India, Bangladesh, Timor-Leste, Ethiopia, and Chad for boys and girls; and in Japan and Romania for girls) was approximately 9–10 kg/m2. In some countries, children aged 5 years started with healthier height or BMI than the global median and, in some cases, as healthy as the best performing countries, but they became progressively less healthy compared with their comparators as they grew older by not growing as tall (eg, boys in Austria and Barbados, and girls in Belgium and Puerto Rico) or gaining too much weight for their height (eg, girls and boys in Kuwait, Bahrain, Fiji, Jamaica, and Mexico; and girls in South Africa and New Zealand). In other countries, growing children overtook the height of their comparators (eg, Latvia, Czech Republic, Morocco, and Iran) or curbed their weight gain (eg, Italy, France, and Croatia) in late childhood and adolescence. When changes in both height and BMI were considered, girls in South Korea, Vietnam, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and some central Asian countries (eg, Armenia and Azerbaijan), and boys in central and western Europe (eg, Portugal, Denmark, Poland, and Montenegro) had the healthiest changes in anthropometric status over the past 3·5 decades because, compared with children and adolescents in other countries, they had a much larger gain in height than they did in BMI. The unhealthiest changes—gaining too little height, too much weight for their height compared with children in other countries, or both—occurred in many countries in sub-Saharan Africa, New Zealand, and the USA for boys and girls; in Malaysia and some Pacific island nations for boys; and in Mexico for girls. Interpretation The height and BMI trajectories over age and time of school-aged children and adolescents are highly variable across countries, which indicates heterogeneous nutritional quality and lifelong health advantages and risks

Towards model-based control of Parkinson's disease

Modern model-based control theory has led to transformative improvements in our ability to track the nonlinear dynamics of systems that we observe, and to engineer control systems of unprecedented efficacy. In parallel with these developments, our ability to build computational models to embody our expanding knowledge of the biophysics of neurons and their networks is maturing at a rapid rate. In the treatment of human dynamical disease, our employment of deep brain stimulators for the treatment of Parkinson’s disease is gaining increasing acceptance. Thus, the confluence of these three developments—control theory, computational neuroscience and deep brain stimulation—offers a unique opportunity to create novel approaches to the treatment of this disease. This paper explores the relevant state of the art of science, medicine and engineering, and proposes a strategy for model-based control of Parkinson’s disease. We present a set of preliminary calculations employing basal ganglia computational models, structured within an unscented Kalman filter for tracking observations and prescribing control. Based upon these findings, we will offer suggestions for future research and development

Cognitive networks: brains, internet, and civilizations

In this short essay, we discuss some basic features of cognitive activity at several different space-time scales: from neural networks in the brain to civilizations. One motivation for such comparative study is its heuristic value. Attempts to better understand the functioning of "wetware" involved in cognitive activities of central nervous system by comparing it with a computing device have a long tradition. We suggest that comparison with Internet might be more adequate. We briefly touch upon such subjects as encoding, compression, and Saussurean trichotomy langue/langage/parole in various environments.Comment: 16 page

Changing indications and socio-demographic determinants of (adeno)tonsillectomy among children in England--are they linked? A retrospective analysis of hospital data.

OBJECTIVE: To assess whether increased awareness and diagnosis of obstructive sleep apnoea syndrome (OSAS) and national guidance on tonsillectomy for recurrent tonsillitis have influenced the socio-demographic profile of children who underwent tonsillectomy over the last decade. METHOD: Retrospective time-trends study of Hospital Episodes Statistics data. We examined the age, sex and deprivation level, alongside OSAS diagnoses, among children aged <16 years who underwent (adeno)tonsillectomy in England between 2001/2 and 2011/12. RESULTS: Among children aged <16 years, there were 29,697 and 27,732 (adeno)tonsillectomies performed in 2001/2 and 2011/12, respectively. The median age at (adeno)tonsillectomy decreased from 7 (IQR: 5-11) to 5 (IQR: 4-9) years over the decade. (Adeno)tonsillectomy rates among children aged 4-15 years decreased by 14% from 350 (95%CI: 346-354) in 2001/2 to 300 (95%CI: 296-303) per 100,000 children in 2011/12. However, (adeno)tonsillectomy rates among children aged <4 years increased by 58% from 135 (95%CI: 131-140) to 213 (95%CI 208-219) per 100,000 children in 2001/2 and 2011/2, respectively. OSAS diagnoses among children aged <4 years who underwent surgery increased from 18% to 39% between these study years and the proportion of children aged <4 years with OSAS from the most deprived areas increased from 5% to 12%, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: (Adeno)tonsillectomy rates declined among children aged 4-15 years, which reflects national guidelines recommending the restriction of the operation to children with more severe recurrent throat infections. However, (adeno)tonsillectomy rates among pre-school children substantially increased over the past decade and one in five children undergoing the operation was aged <4 years in 2011/12.The increase in surgery rates in younger children is likely to have been driven by increased awareness and detection of OSAS, particularly among children from the most deprived areas

Heterogeneous contributions of change in population distribution of body mass index to change in obesity and underweight

From 1985 to 2016, the prevalence of underweight decreased, and that of obesity and severe obesity increased, in most regions, with significant variation in the magnitude of these changes across regions. We investigated how much change in mean body mass index (BMI) explains changes in the prevalence of underweight, obesity, and severe obesity in different regions using data from 2896 population-based studies with 187 million participants. Changes in the prevalence of underweight and total obesity, and to a lesser extent severe obesity, are largely driven by shifts in the distribution of BMI, with smaller contributions from changes in the shape of the distribution. In East and Southeast Asia and sub-Saharan Africa, the underweight tail of the BMI distribution was left behind as the distribution shifted. There is a need for policies that address all forms of malnutrition by making healthy foods accessible and affordable, while restricting unhealthy foods through fiscal and regulatory restrictions

Multidimensional characterization of global food supply from 1961 to 2013

Food systems are increasingly globalized and interdependent, and diets around the world are changing. Characterization of national food supplies and how they have changed can inform food policies that ensure national food security, support access to healthy diets and enhance environmental sustainability. Here we analysed data for 171 countries on the availability of 18 food groups from the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization to identify and track multidimensional food supply patterns from 1961 to 2013. Four predominant food-group combinations were identified that explained almost 90% of the cross-country variance in food supply: animal source and sugar, vegetable, starchy root and fruit, and seafood and oilcrops. South Korea, China and Taiwan experienced the largest changes in food supply over the past five decades, with animal source foods and sugar, vegetables and seafood and oilcrops all becoming more abundant components of the food supply. In contrast, in many Western countries the supply of animal source foods and sugar declined. Meanwhile, there was remarkably little change in the food supply in countries in the sub-Saharan Africa region. These changes led to a partial global convergence in the national supply of animal source foods and sugar, and a divergence in those of vegetables and of seafood and oilcrops. Our analysis generated a novel characterization of food supply that highlights the interdependence of multiple food types in national food systems. A better understanding of how these patterns have evolved and will continue to change is needed to support the delivery of healthy and sustainable food system policies

The Development of the Joint NASA GSFC and the National Imagery and Mapping Agency (NIMA) Geopotential Model EGM96

The NASA Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC), the National Imagery and Mapping Agency (NIMA), and The Ohio State University (OSU) have collaborated to develop an improved spherical harmonic model of the Earth's gravitational potential to degree 360. The new model, Earth Gravitational Model 1996 (EGM96), incorporates improved surface gravity data, altimeter-derived gravity anomalies from ERS-1 and from the GEOSAT Geodetic Mission (GM), extensive satellite tracking data-including new data from Satellite Laser Ranging (SLR), the Global Postioning System (GPS), NASA's Tracking and Data Relay Satellite System (TDRSS), the French DORIS system, and the US Navy TRANET Doppler tracking system-as well as direct altimeter ranges from TOPEX/POSEIDON (T/P), ERS-1, and GEOSAT. The final solution blends a low-degree combination model to degree 70, a block-diagonal solution from degree 71 to 359, and a quadrature solution at degree 360. The model was used to compute geoid undulations accurate to better than one meter (with the exception of areas void of dense and accurate surface gravity data) and realize WGS84 as a true three-dimensional reference system. Additional results from the EGM96 solution include models of the dynamic ocean topography to degree 20 from T/P and ERS-1 together, and GEOSAT separately, and improved orbit determination for Earth-orbiting satellites

Contributions of mean and shape of blood pressure distribution to worldwide trends and variations in raised blood pressure: a pooled analysis of 1018 population-based measurement studies with 88.6 million participants

Background: Change in the prevalence of raised blood pressure could be due to both shifts in the entire distribution of blood pressure (representing the combined effects of public health interventions and secular trends) and changes in its high-blood-pressure tail (representing successful clinical interventions to control blood pressure in the hypertensive population). Our aim was to quantify the contributions of these two phenomena to the worldwide trends in the prevalence of raised blood pressure. Methods: We pooled 1,018 population-based studies with blood pressure measurements on 88.6 million participants from 1985 to 2016. We first calculated mean SBP, mean DBP and prevalence of raised blood pressure by sex and 10-year age group from 20-29 years to 70-79 years in each study, taking into account complex survey design and survey sample weights, where relevant. We used a linear mixed effect model to quantify the association between (probit-transformed) prevalence of raised blood pressure and age-group- and sex-specific mean blood pressure. We calculated the contributions of change in mean SBP and DBP, and of change in the prevalence-mean association, to the change in prevalence of raised blood pressure. Results: In 2005-2016, at the same level of population mean SBP and DBP, men and women in south Asia and in central Asia, Middle East and north Africa would have the highest prevalence of raised blood pressure, and men and women in the high-income Asia Pacific and high-income western regions would have the lowest. In most region-sex-age groups where the prevalence of raised blood pressure declined, one half or more of the decline was due to the decline in mean blood pressure. Where prevalence of raised blood pressure has increased, the change was entirely driven by increasing mean blood pressure, offset partly by the change in the prevalence-mean association. Conclusions: Change in mean blood pressure is the main driver of the worldwide change in the prevalence of raised blood pressure, but change in the high-blood-pressure tail of the distribution has also contributed to the change in prevalence, especially in older age groups

Phenotypic and molecular analyses of primary lateral sclerosis

Objective: To understand phenotypic and molecular characteristics of patients with clinically “definite” primary lateral sclerosis (PLS) in a prospective study. Methods: Six sites enrolled 41 patients who had pure upper motor neuron dysfunction, bulbar symptoms, a normal EMG done within 12 months of enrollment, and onset of symptoms ≥5 years before enrollment. For phenotypic analyses, 27 demographic, clinical, and cognitive variables were analyzed using the k-means clustering method. For molecular studies, 34 available DNA samples were tested for the C9ORF72 mutation, and exome sequencing was performed to exclude other neurologic diseases with known genetic cause. Results: K-means clustering using the 25 patients with complete datasets suggested that patients with PLS can be classified into 2 groups based on clinical variables, namely dysphagia, objective bulbar signs, and urinary urgency. Secondary analyses performed in all 41 patients and including only variables with complete data corroborated the results from the primary analysis. We found no evidence that neurocognitive variables are important in classifying patients with PLS. Molecular studies identified C9ORF72 expansion in one patient. Well-characterized pathogenic mutations were identified in SPG7, DCTN1, and PARK2. Most cases showed no known relevant mutations. Conclusions: Cluster analyses based on clinical variables indicated at least 2 subgroups of clinically definite PLS. Molecular analyses further identified 4 cases with mutations associated with amyotrophic lateral sclerosis, Parkinson disease, and possibly hereditary spastic paraplegia. Phenotypic and molecular characterization is the first step in investigating biological clues toward the definition of PLS. Further studies with larger numbers of patients are essential