Gestión de bosques mixtos de pino y roble en escenarios de incertidumbre climática

The process-based forest growth model 4C (FORESEE - FORESt Ecosystems in a Changing Environment) was used to analyze the growth of a mixed oak-pine stand [Quercus petraea (Mattuschka) Liebl., Pinus sylvestris L.]. The oak-pine stand is typical for the ongoing forest transformation in the north-eastern lowlands. The pine and the oak trees are 104 and 9 years old, respectively. Three different management scenarios (A, B, C) with different thinning grades and a thinning interval of five years were simulated. Every management scenario was simulated under three different climate scenarios (0K, 2K, 3K) compiled by the regional statistical climate model STAR 2.0 (PIK). For each climate scenario 100 different realisations were generated. The realisations of the climate scenarios encompass the period 2036-2060 and exhibit an increase of mean annual temperature of zero, two and three Kelvin until 2060, respectively. We selected 9 model outputs concerning biomass, growth and harvest which were aggregated to a single total performance index (TPI). The TPI was used to assess the management scenarios with regard to three management objectives (carbon sequestration, intermediate, timber yield) under climate change until 2060. We found out that management scenario A led to the highest TPI concerning the carbon sequestration objective and management scenario C performed best concerning the two other objectives. The analysis of variance in the growth related model outputs showed an increase of climate uncertainty with increasing climate warming. Interestingly, the increase of climate induced uncertainty is much higher from 2 to 3 K than from 0 to 2 K.Se ha utilizado un modelo forestal basado en procesos denominado 4C (FORESEE - FORESt Ecosystems in a Changing Environment) para analizar el crecimiento de un masa forestal con mezcla de Quercus petraea y Pinus sylvestris. Ésta es una mezcla típica en las áreas de transformación forestal en las zonas bajas del noreste de Alemania. Los pinos y los robles tienen una edad de 104 y 9 años respectivamente. Se simularon tres escenarios diferentes de manejo (A, B, C) con diferentes grados de claras e intervalos de clara de 5 años. Cada escenario de manejo fue simulado bajo tres escenarios climáticos (0K, 2K, 3K) los cuales se calcularon por el modelo regional climático estadístico STAR 2.0 (PIK). Se generaron 100 diferentes realizaciones para cada escenario climático. Las realizaciones incluyen el período 2036-2060 y presentan un aumento de la temperatura anual de cero, dos y tres grados Kelvin hasta el año 2060, respectivamente. Seleccionamos 9 salidas del modelo relacionadas con la biomasa, crecimiento y rendimiento que se combinaron en un único índice de rendimiento total (TPI, total performance index). El TPI fue analizado para investigar los escenarios de manejo con respecto a tres objetivos de manejo (secuestro de carbono, máximo rendimiento maderero, y un escenario intermedio a ambos) bajo la influencia de cambio climático hasta el año 2060. Nuestros resultados indican que el escenario A muestra el TPI más alto con respecto al secuestro de carbono, y el escenario C tuvo el mejor resultado respecto a los otros dos objetivos. El análisis de varianza en las salidas relativas al crecimiento mostró que mientras más evoluciona el calentamiento global, más crece la incertidumbre climática. Cabe destacar que el aumento de la incertidumbre inducida por el clima es mucho mayor al aumentar de 2 a 3 K que de 0 a 2 K

Uncertainty of biomass contributions from agriculture and forestry to renewable energy resources under climate change

In the future, Germany's land-use policies and the impacts of climate change on yields will affect the amount of biomass available for energy production. We used recent published data on biomass potentials in the federal states of Germany to assess the uncertainty caused by climate change effects in the potential supply of biomass available for energy production. In this study we selected three climate scenarios representing the maximum, mean and minimum temperature increase for Germany out of 21 CMIP5-projections driven by the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 8.5 scenario. Each of the three selected projections was downscaled using the regional statistical climate model STARS. We analysed the yield changes of four biomass feedstock crops (forest, short-rotation coppices (SRC), cereal straw (winter wheat) and energy maize) for the period 2031–2060 in comparison to 1981–2010. The mean annual yield changes of energy wood from forest and short-rotation coppices were modelled using the process-based forest growth model 4C. The yield changes of winter wheat and energy maize from agricultural production were simulated with the statistical yield model IRMA. Germany's annual biomass potential of 1500 PJ varies between minus 5 % and plus 8 % depending on the climate scenario realisation. Assuming that 1500 PJ of biomass utilisation can be achieved, climate change effects of minus 75 (5 %) PJ or plus 120 (8 %) PJ do not impede overall bioenergy targets of 1287 PJ in 2020 and 1534 PJ in 2050. In five federal states the climate scenarios lead to decreasing yields of energy maize and winter wheat. Impacts of climate scenarios on forest yields are mainly positive and show both positive and negative effects on yields of SRC

Realizing Mitigation Efficiency of European Commercial Forests by Climate Smart Forestry

European temperate and boreal forests sequester up to 12% of Europe's annual carbon emissions. Forest carbon density can be manipulated through management to maximize its climate mitigation potential, and fast-growing tree species may contribute the most to Climate Smart Forestry (CSF) compared to slow-growing hardwoods. This type of CSF takes into account not only forest resource potentials in sequestering carbon, but also the economic impact of regional forest products and discounts both variables over time. We used the process-based forest model 4 C to simulate European commercial forests' growth conditions and coupled it with an optimization algorithm to simulate the implementation of CSF for 18 European countries encompassing 68.3 million ha of forest (42.4% of total EU-28 forest area). We found a European CSF policy that could sequester 7.3-11.1 billion tons of carbon, projected to be worth 103 to 141 billion euros in the 21st century. An efficient CSF policy would allocate carbon sequestration to European countries with a lower wood price, lower labor costs, high harvest costs, or a mixture thereof to increase its economic efficiency. This policy prioritized the allocation of mitigation efforts to northern, eastern and central European countries and favored fast growing conifers Picea abies and Pinus sylvestris to broadleaves Fagus sylvatica and Quercus species

An investigation of the RWPE prostate derived family of cell lines using FTIR spectroscopy

Interest in developing robust, quicker and easier diagnostic tests for cancer has lead to an increased use of Fourier transform infrared (FTIR) spectroscopy to meet that need. In this study we present the use of different experimental modes of infrared spectroscopy to investigate the RWPE human prostate epithelial cell line family which are derived from the same source but differ in their mode of transformation and their mode of invasive phenotype. Importantly, analysis of the infrared spectra obtained using different experimental modes of infrared spectroscopy produces similar results. The RWPE family of cell lines can be separated into groups based upon the method of cell transformation rather than the resulting invasiveness/aggressiveness of the cell line. The study also demonstrates the possibility of using a genetic algorithm as a possible standardised pre-processing step and raises the important question of the usefulness of cell lines to create a biochemical model of prostate cancer progression

Bayesian calibration, comparison and averaging of six forest models, using data from Scots pine stands across Europe

Forest management requires prediction of forest growth, but there is no general agreement about which models best predict growth, how to quantify model parameters, and how to assess the uncertainty of model predictions. In this paper, we show how Bayesian calibration (BC), Bayesian model comparison (BMC) and Bayesian model averaging (BMA) can help address these issues. We used six models, ranging from simple parameter-sparse models to complex process-based models: 3PG, 4C, ANAFORE, BASFOR, BRIDGING and FORMIND. For each model, the initial degree of uncertainty about parameter values was expressed in a prior probability distribution. Inventory data for Scots pine on tree height and diameter, with estimates of measurement uncertainty, were assembled for twelve sites, from four countries: Austria, Belgium, Estonia and Finland. From each country, we used data from two sites of the National Forest Inventories (NFIs), and one Permanent Sample Plot (PSP). The models were calibrated using the NFI-data and tested against the PSP-data. Calibration was done both per country and for all countries simultaneously, thus yielding country-specific and generic parameter distributions. We assessed model performance by sampling from prior and posterior distributions and comparing the growth predictions of these samples to the observations at the PSPs. We found that BC reduced uncertainties strongly in all but the most complex model. Surprisingly, country-specific BC did not lead to clearly better within-country predictions than generic BC. BMC identified the BRIDGING model, which is of intermediate complexity, as the most plausible model before calibration, with 4C taking its place after calibration. In this BMC, model plausibility was quantified as the relative probability of a model being correct given the information in the PSP-data. We discuss how the method of model initialisation affects model performance. Finally, we show how BMA affords a robust way of predicting forest growth that accounts for both parametric and model structural uncertainty

Exploring malignancies: Narcissism and paranoia today

Lasch's (1978) study of the 'culture of narcissism' is discussed as a model socio-psychoanalytic inquiry. However, in fragmented societies, the search for an encompassing diagnosis is less useful than a strategy of identifying states of mind active in specific situations. In studying more malignant phenomena, paranoid states are important, especially in their combination with narcissism. Hofstadter's (1964) essay on the paranoid 'style' is a key reference point. Comparing Lasch and Hofstadter invites a consideration of broad issues concerning the relations between culture and psyche, and between leaders and followers. The paper ends with a short commentary on narcissistic and paranoid states of mind in the case of President Trump

Variable strength of forest stand attributes and weather conditions on the questing activity of Ixodes ricinus ticks over years in managed forests

Given the ever-increasing human impact through land use and climate change on the environment, we crucially need to achieve a better understanding of those factors that influence the questing activity of ixodid ticks, a major disease-transmitting vector in temperate forests. We investigated variation in the relative questing nymph densities of Ixodes ricinus in differently managed forest types for three years (2008–2010) in SW Germany by drag sampling. We used a hierarchical Bayesian modeling approach to examine the relative effects of habitat and weather and to consider possible nested structures of habitat and climate forces. The questing activity of nymphs was considerably larger in young forest successional stages of thicket compared with pole wood and timber stages. Questing nymph density increased markedly with milder winter temperatures. Generally, the relative strength of the various environmental forces on questing nymph density differed across years. In particular, winter temperature had a negative effect on tick activity across sites in 2008 in contrast to the overall effect of temperature across years. Our results suggest that forest management practices have important impacts on questing nymph density. Variable weather conditions, however, might override the effects of forest management practices on the fluctuations and dynamics of tick populations and activity over years, in particular, the preceding winter temperatures. Therefore, robust predictions and the detection of possible interactions and nested structures of habitat and climate forces can only be quantified through the collection of long-term data. Such data are particularly important with regard to future scenarios of forest management and climate warming

Science and Ideology in Economic, Political, and Social Thought

This paper has two sources: One is my own research in three broad areas: business cycles, economic measurement and social choice. In all of these fields I attempted to apply the basic precepts of the scientific method as it is understood in the natural sciences. I found that my effort at using natural science methods in economics was met with little understanding and often considerable hostility. I found economics to be driven less by common sense and empirical evidence, then by various ideologies that exhibited either a political or a methodological bias, or both. This brings me to the second source: Several books have appeared recently that describe in historical terms the ideological forces that have shaped either the direct areas in which I worked, or a broader background. These books taught me that the ideological forces in the social sciences are even stronger than I imagined on the basis of my own experiences. The scientific method is the antipode to ideology. I feel that the scientific work that I have done on specific, long standing and fundamental problems in economics and political science have given me additional insights into the destructive role of ideology beyond the history of thought orientation of the works I will be discussing