Weather Research and Forecasting Model Sensitivity Comparisons for Warm Season Convective Initiation

Mesoscale weather conditions can significantly affect the space launch and landing operations at Kennedy Space Center (KSC) and Cape Canaveral Air Force Station (CCAFS). During the summer months, land-sea interactions that occur across KSC and CCAFS lead to the formation of a sea breeze, which can then spawn deep convection. These convective processes often last 60 minutes or less and pose a significant challenge to the forecasters at the National Weather Service (NWS) Spaceflight Meteorology Group (SMG). The main challenge is that a "GO" forecast for thunderstorms and precipitation is required at the 90 minute deorbit decision for End Of Mission (EOM) and at the 30 minute Return To Launch Site (RTLS) decision at the Shuttle Landing Facility. Convective initiation, timing, and mode also present a forecast challenge for the NWS in Melbourne, FL (MLB). The NWS MLB issues such tactical forecast information as Terminal Aerodrome Forecasts (TAFs), Spot Forecasts for fire weather and hazardous materials incident support, and severe/hazardous weather Watches, Warnings, and Advisories. Lastly, these forecasting challenges can also affect the 45th Weather Squadron (45 WS), which provides comprehensive weather forecasts for shuttle launch, as well as ground operations, at KSC and CCAFS. The need for accurate mesoscale model forecasts to aid in their decision making is crucial. Both the SMG and the MLB are currently implementing the Weather Research and Forecasting Environmental Modeling System (WRF EMS) software into their operations. The WRF EMS software allows users to employ both dynamical cores - the Advanced Research WRF (ARW) and the Non-hydrostatic Mesoscale Model (NMM). There are also data assimilation analysis packages available for the initialization of the WRF model- the Local Analysis and Prediction System (LAPS) and the Advanced Regional Prediction System (ARPS) Data Analysis System (ADAS). Having a series of initialization options and WRF cores, as well as many options within each core, provides SMG and NWS MLB with a lot of flexibility. It also creates challenges, such as determining which configuration options are best to address specific forecast concerns. The goal of this project is to assess the different configurations available and to determine which configuration will best predict warm season convective initiation in East-Central Florida. Four different combinations of WRF initializations will be run (ADAS-ARW, ADAS-NMM, LAPS-ARW, and LAPS-NMM) at a 4-km resolution over the Florida peninsula and adjacent coastal waters. Five candidate convective initiation days using three different flow regimes over East-Central Florida will be examined, as well as two null cases (non-convection days). Each model run will be integrated 12 hours with three runs per day, at 0900, 1200, and 1500 UTe. ADAS analyses will be generated every 30 minutes using Level II Weather Surveillance Radar-1988 Doppler (WSR-88D) data from all Florida radars to verify the convection forecast. These analyses will be run on the same domain as the four model configurations. To quantify model performance, model output will be subjectively compared to the ADAS analyses of convection to determine forecast accuracy. In addition, a subjective comparison of the performance of the ARW using a high-resolution local grid with 2-way nesting, I-way nesting, and no nesting will be made for select convective initiation cases. The inner grid will cover the East-Central Florida region at a resolution of 1.33 km. The authors will summarize the relative skill of the various WRF configurations and how each configuration behaves relative to the others, as well as determine the best model configuration for predicting warm season convective initiation over East-Central Florida

Maintaining a Local Data Integration System in Support of Weather Forecast Operations

Since 2000, both the National Weather Service in Melbourne, FL (NWS MLB) and the Spaceflight Meteorology Group (SMG) at Johnson Space Center in Houston, TX have used a local data integration system (LDIS) as part of their forecast and warning operations. The original LDIS was developed by NASA's Applied Meteorology Unit (AMU; Bauman et ai, 2004) in 1998 (Manobianco and Case 1998) and has undergone subsequent improvements. Each has benefited from three-dimensional (3-D) analyses that are delivered to forecasters every 15 minutes across the peninsula of Florida. The intent is to generate products that enhance short-range weather forecasts issued in support of NWS MLB and SMG operational requirements within East Central Florida. The current LDIS uses the Advanced Regional Prediction System (ARPS) Data Analysis System (ADAS) package as its core, which integrates a wide variety of national, regional, and local observational data sets. It assimilates all available real-time data within its domain and is run at a finer spatial and temporal resolution than current national- or regional-scale analysis packages. As such, it provides local forecasters with a more comprehensive understanding of evolving fine-scale weather feature

Configuring a Graphical User Interface for Managing Local HYSPLIT Model Runs Through AWIPS

Responding to incidents involving the release of harmful airborne pollutants is a continual challenge for Weather Forecast Offices in the National Weather Service. When such incidents occur, current protocol recommends forecaster-initiated requests of NOAA's Hybrid Single-Particle Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory (HYSPLIT) model output through the National Centers of Environmental Prediction to obtain critical dispersion guidance. Individual requests are submitted manually through a secured web site, with desired multiple requests submitted in sequence, for the purpose of obtaining useful trajectory and concentration forecasts associated with the significant release of harmful chemical gases, radiation, wildfire smoke, etc., into local the atmosphere. To help manage the local HYSPLIT for both routine and emergency use, a graphical user interface was designed for operational efficiency. The interface allows forecasters to quickly determine the current HYSPLIT configuration for the list of predefined sites (e.g., fixed sites and floating sites), and to make any necessary adjustments to key parameters such as Input Model. Number of Forecast Hours, etc. When using the interface, forecasters will obtain desired output more confidently and without the danger of corrupting essential configuration files

Configuring the HYSPLIT Model for National Weather Service Forecast Office and Spaceflight Meteorology Group Applications

The National Weather Service Forecast Office in Melbourne, FL (NWS MLB) is responsible for providing meteorological support to state and county emergency management agencies across East Central Florida in the event of incidents involving the significant release of harmful chemicals, radiation, and smoke from fires and/or toxic plumes into the atmosphere. NWS MLB uses the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Hybrid Single-Particle Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory (HYSPLIT) model to provide trajectory, concentration, and deposition guidance during such events. Accurate and timely guidance is critical for decision makers charged with protecting the health and well-being of populations at risk. Information that can describe the geographic extent of areas possibly affected by a hazardous release, as well as to indicate locations of primary concern, offer better opportunity for prompt and decisive action. In addition, forecasters at the NWS Spaceflight Meteorology Group (SMG) have expressed interest in using the HYSPLIT model to assist with Weather Flight Rules during Space Shuttle landing operations. In particular, SMG would provide low and mid-level HYSPLIT trajectory forecasts for cumulus clouds associated with smoke plumes, and high-level trajectory forecasts for thunderstorm anvils. Another potential benefit for both NWS MLB and SMG is using the HYSPLIT model concentration and deposition guidance in fog situations

Systematic event generator tuning for the LHC

In this article we describe Professor, a new program for tuning model parameters of Monte Carlo event generators to experimental data by parameterising the per-bin generator response to parameter variations and numerically optimising the parameterised behaviour. Simulated experimental analysis data is obtained using the Rivet analysis toolkit. This paper presents the Professor procedure and implementation, illustrated with the application of the method to tunes of the Pythia 6 event generator to data from the LEP/SLD and Tevatron experiments. These tunes are substantial improvements on existing standard choices, and are recommended as base tunes for LHC experiments, to be themselves systematically improved upon when early LHC data is available.Comment: 28 pages. Submitted to European Physical Journal C. Program sources and extra information are available from http://projects.hepforge.org/professor

THE TOOLS AND MONTE CARLO WORKING GROUP Summary Report from the Les Houches 2009 Workshop on TeV Colliders

This is the summary and introduction to the proceedings contributions for the Les Houches 2009 "Tools and Monte Carlo" working group.Comment: 144 Pages. Workshop site http://wwwlapp.in2p3.fr/conferences/LesHouches/Houches2009/ . Conveners were Butterworth, Maltoni, Moortgat, Richardson, Schumann and Skand

Measurement of the B0_s semileptonic branching ratio to an orbitally excited D_s** state, Br(B0_s -> Ds1(2536) mu nu)

In a data sample of approximately 1.3 fb-1 collected with the D0 detector between 2002 and 2006, the orbitally excited charm state D_s1(2536) has been observed with a measured mass of 2535.7 +/- 0.6 (stat) +/- 0.5 (syst) MeV via the decay mode B0_s -> D_s1(2536) mu nu X. A first measurement is made of the branching ratio product Br(b(bar) -> D_s1(2536) mu nu X).Br(D_s1(2536)->D* K0_S). Assuming that D_s1(2536) production in semileptonic decay is entirely from B0_s, an extraction of the semileptonic branching ratio Br(B0_s -> D_s1(2536) mu nu X) is made.Comment: 7 pages, 2 figures, LaTeX, version with minor changes as accepted by Phys. Rev. Let

Simultaneous measurement of the ratio B(t->Wb)/B(t->Wq) and the top quark pair production cross section with the D0 detector at sqrt(s)=1.96 TeV

We present the first simultaneous measurement of the ratio of branching fractions, R=B(t->Wb)/B(t->Wq), with q being a d, s, or b quark, and the top quark pair production cross section sigma_ttbar in the lepton plus jets channel using 0.9 fb-1 of ppbar collision data at sqrt(s)=1.96 TeV collected with the D0 detector. We extract R and sigma_ttbar by analyzing samples of events with 0, 1 and >= 2 identified b jets. We measure R = 0.97 +0.09-0.08 (stat+syst) and sigma_ttbar = 8.18 +0.90-0.84 (stat+syst)} +/-0.50 (lumi) pb, in agreement with the standard model prediction.Comment: submitted to Phys.Rev.Letter

Search for charged Higgs bosons decaying to top and bottom quarks in ppbar collisions

We describe a search for production of a charged Higgs boson, q \bar{q'} -> H^+, reconstructed in the t\bar{b} final state in the mass range 180 <= M_{H^+} <= 300 GeV. The search was undertaken at the Fermilab Tevatron collider with a center-of-mass energy sqrt{s} = 1.96 TeV and uses 0.9 fb^{-1} of data collected with the D0 detector. We find no evidence for charged Higgs boson production and set upper limits on the production cross section in the Types I, II and III two-Higgs-doublet models (2HDMs). An excluded region in the (M_{H^+},tan\beta) plane for Type I 2HDM is presented.Comment: Submitted to Phys. Rev. Letter

Measurement of the forward-backward charge asymmetry and extraction of sin^2Theta^{eff}_W in ppbar -> Z/\gamma^{*}+X -> e+e+X events produced at \sqrt{s}=1.96 TeV

We present a measurement of the forward-backward charge asymmetry ($A_{FB}$) in $p\bar{p} \to Z/\gamma^{*}+X \to e^+e^-+X$ events at a center-of-mass energy of 1.96 TeV using 1.1 fb$^{-1}$ of data collected with the D0 detector at the Fermilab Tevatron collider. $A_{FB}$ is measured as a function of the invariant mass of the electron-positron pair, and found to be consistent with the standard model prediction. We use the $A_{FB}$ measurement to extract the effective weak mixing angle $sin^2Theta^{eff}_W = 0.2327 \pm 0.0018 (stat.) \pm 0.0006 (syst.)$.Comment: 7 Pages, 1 Figure, 3 Tables, Accepted by Phys. Rev. Let