Towards net zero CO2 in 2050: an emission reduction pathway for organic soils in Germany

The Paris Agreement reflects the global endeavour to limit the increase of global average temperature to 2 °C, better 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels to prevent dangerous climate change. This requires that global anthropogenic net carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions are reduced to zero around 2050. The German Climate Protection Plan substantiates this goal and explicitly mentions peatlands, which make up 5 % of the total area under land use and emit 5.7 % of total annual greenhouse gas emissions in Germany. Based on inventory reporting and assumptions of land use change probability, we have developed emission reduction pathways for organic soils in Germany that on a national level comply with the IPCC 1.5 °C pathways. The more gradual pathway 1 requires the following interim (2030, 2040) and ultimate (2050) milestones: Cropland use stopped and all Cropland converted to Grassland by 2030; Water tables raised to the soil surface on 15 % / 60 % / 100 % of all Grassland, on 50 % / 75 % / 100 % of all Forest land, and ultimately on 2/3 of all Settlements and on 100 % of all Wetlands. Also a more direct pathway 2 without interim ‘moist’ water tables and the climate effect (radiative forcing) of different scenarios is presente

Greenhouse gas emission factors associated with rewetting of organic soils

Drained organic soils are a significant source of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions to the atmosphere. Rewetting these soils may reduce GHG emissions and could also create suitable conditions for return of the carbon (C) sink function characteristic of undrained organic soils. In this article we expand on the work relating to rewetted organic soils that was carried out for the 2014 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Wetlands Supplement. We describe the methods and scientific approach used to derive the Tier 1 emission factors (the rate of emission per unit of activity) for the full suite of GHG and waterborne C fluxes associated with rewetting of organic soils. We recorded a total of 352 GHG and waterborne annual flux data points from an extensive literature search and these were disaggregated by flux type (i.e. CO2, CH4, N2O and DOC), climate zone and nutrient status. Our results showed fundamental differences between the GHG dynamics of drained and rewetted organic soils and, based on the 100 year global warming potential of each gas, indicated that rewetting of drained organic soils leads to: net annual removals of CO2 in the majority of organic soil classes; an increase in annual CH4 emissions; a decrease in N2O and DOC losses; and a lowering of net GHG emissions. Data published since the Wetlands Supplement (n = 58) generally support our derivations. Significant data gaps exist, particularly with regard to tropical organic soils, DOC and N2O. We propose that the uncertainty associated with our derivations could be significantly reduced by the development of country specific emission factors that could in turn be disaggregated by factors such as vegetation composition, water table level, time since rewetting and previous land use history

Population-based study of morbidity risk associated with pathological complete response after chemoradiotherapy for rectal cancer

BACKGROUND: Neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy (nCRT) for locally advanced rectal cancer may induce a pathological complete response (pCR) but increase surgical morbidity due to radiation-induced fibrosis. In this study the association between pCR and postoperative surgical morbidity was investigated. METHODS: Patients in the Netherlands with rectal cancer who underwent nCRT followed by total mesorectal excision between 2009 and 2017 were included. Data were stratified into patients who underwent resection with creation of a primary anastomosis and those who had a permanent stoma procedure. The association between pCR and postoperative morbidity was investigated in univariable and multivariable logistic regression analyses. RESULTS: pCR was observed in 976 (12·2 per cent) of 8003 patients. In 3472 patients who had a primary anastomosis, the presence of pCR was significantly associated with surgical complications (122 of 443 (27·5 per cent) versus 598 of 3029 (19·7 per cent) in those without pCR) and anastomotic leak (35 of 443 (7·9 per cent) versus 173 of 3029 (5·7 per cent) respectively). Multivariable analysis also showed associations between pCR and surgical complications (adjusted odds ratio (OR) 1·53, 95 per cent c.i. 1·22 to 1·92) and pCR and anastomotic leak (adjusted OR 1·41, 1·03 to 2·05). Of 4531 patients with a permanent stoma, surgical complications were observed in 120 (22·5 per cent) of 533 patients with a pCR, compared with 798 (20·0 per cent) of 3998 patients with no pCR (adjusted OR 1·17, 0·94 to 1·46). CONCLUSION: Patients with a pCR in whom an anastomosis was created were at increased risk of developing an anastomotic leak

Active afforestation of drained peatlands is not a viable option under the EU Nature Restoration Law

The EU Nature Restoration Law (NRL) is critical in restoring degraded ecosystems. However, active afforestation of degraded peatlands has been suggested by some as a restoration measure under the NRL. Here, we discuss the current state of scientific evidence on the climate mitigation effects of peatlands under forestry and its limitations, uncertainties and evidence gaps. Based on this discussion we conclude: Afforestation of drained peatlands, while maintaining their drained state, is not equivalent to ecosystem restoration. This approach will not restore the peatland ecosystem's flora, fauna, and functions. There is insufficient evidence to support the long-term climate change mitigation benefits of active afforestation of drained peatlands. Most studies only focus on the short-term gains in standing biomass and rarely explore the full life cycle emissions associated with afforestation of drained peatlands. Thus, it is unclear whether the CO2 sequestration of a forest on drained peatland can offset the carbon loss from the peat over the long term. In some ecosystems, such as abandoned or certain cutaway peatlands, afforestation may provide short-term benefits for climate change mitigation compared to taking no action. However, this approach violates the concept of sustainability by sacrificing the most space-effective carbon store of the terrestrial biosphere, the long-term peat store, for a shorter-term, less space-effective, and more vulnerable carbon store, namely tree biomass. Consequently, active afforestation of drained peatlands is not a viable option for climate mitigation under the EU Nature Restoration Law and might even impede future rewetting/restoration efforts. To restore degraded peatlands, hydrological conditions must first be improved, primarily through rewetting

Effectiveness of bailouts in the EU

Governments in the EU frequently bail out firms in distress by granting state aid. I use data from 86 cases during the years 1995-2003 to examine two issues: the effectiveness of bailouts in preventing bankruptcy and the determinants of bailout policy. The results are threefold. First, the estimated discrete-time hazard rate increases during the first four years after the subsidy and drops after that, suggesting that some bailouts only delayed exit instead of preventing it. The number of failing bailouts could be reduced if European control was tougher. Second, governments’ bailout decisions favored state-owned firms, even though state-owned firms did not outperform private ones in the survival chances. Third, subsidy choice is an endogenous variable in the analysis of the hazard rate. Treating it as exogenous underestimates its impact on the bankruptcy probability. Several policy implications of the results are discussed in the paper

Greenhouse gas emissions resulting from conversion of peat swamp forest to oil palm plantation.

Conversion of tropical peat swamp forest to drainage-based agriculture alters greenhouse gas (GHG) production, but the magnitude of these changes remains highly uncertain. Current emissions factors for oil palm grown on drained peat do not account for temporal variation over the plantation cycle and only consider CO2 emissions. Here, we present direct measurements of GHGs emitted during the conversion from peat swamp forest to oil palm plantation, accounting for CH4 and N2O as well as CO2. Our results demonstrate that emissions factors for converted peat swamp forest is in the range 70-117 t CO2 eq ha-1 yr-1 (95% confidence interval, CI), with CO2 and N2O responsible for ca. 60 and ca. 40% of this value, respectively. These GHG emissions suggest that conversion of Southeast Asian peat swamp forest is contributing between 16.6 and 27.9% (95% CI) of combined total national GHG emissions from Malaysia and Indonesia or 0.44 and 0.74% (95% CI) of annual global emissions