Mathematical model of Zika virus with vertical transmission

Zika is a flavivirus transmitted to humans through either the bites of infected Aedes mosquitoes or sexual transmission. Zika has been linked to congenital anomalies such as microcephaly. In this paper, we analyze a new system of ordinary differential equations which incorporates human vertical transmission of Zika virus, the birth of babies with microcephaly and asymptomatically infected individuals. The Zika model is locally and globally asymptotically stable when the basic reproduction number is less than unity. Our model shows that asymptomatic individuals amplify the disease burden in the community, and the most important parameters for ZIKV spread are the death rate of mosquitoes, the mosquito biting rate, the mosquito recruitment rate, and the transmission per contact to mosquitoes and to adult humans. Scenario exploration indicates that personal-protection is a more effective control strategy than mosquito-reduction strategy. It also shows that delaying conception reduces the number of microcephaly cases, although this does little to prevent Zika transmission in the broader community. However, by coupling aggressive vector control and personal protection use, it is possible to reduce both microcephaly and Zika transmission. 2000 Mathematics Subject Classifications: 92B05, 93A30, 93C15

Oscillatory behavior of two nonlinear microbial models of soil carbon decomposition

A number of nonlinear models have recently been proposed for simulating soil carbon decomposition. Their predictions of soil carbon responses to fresh litter input and warming differ significantly from conventional linear models. Using both stability analysis and numerical simulations, we showed that two of those nonlinear models (a two-pool model and a three-pool model) exhibit damped oscillatory responses to small perturbations. Stability analysis showed the frequency of oscillation is proportional to √(ε⁻¹-1) Ks/Vs in the two-pool model, and to √(ε⁻¹-1) Kl/Vl in the three-pool model, where ε is microbial growth efficiency, Ks and Kl are the half saturation constants of soil and litter carbon, respectively, and /Vs and /Vl are the maximal rates of carbon decomposition per unit of microbial biomass for soil and litter carbon, respectively. For both models, the oscillation has a period of between 5 and 15 years depending on other parameter values, and has smaller amplitude at soil temperatures between 0 and 15°C. In addition, the equilibrium pool sizes of litter or soil carbon are insensitive to carbon inputs in the nonlinear model, but are proportional to carbon input in the conventional linear model. Under warming, the microbial biomass and litter carbon pools simulated by the nonlinear models can increase or decrease, depending whether ε varies with temperature. In contrast, the conventional linear models always simulate a decrease in both microbial and litter carbon pools with warming. Based on the evidence available, we concluded that the oscillatory behavior and insensitivity of soil carbon to carbon input are notable features in these nonlinear models that are somewhat unrealistic. We recommend that a better model for capturing the soil carbon dynamics over decadal to centennial timescales would combine the sensitivity of the conventional models to carbon influx with the flexible response to warming of the nonlinear model.15 page(s

Mathematical Modeling for Studying the Sustainability of Plants Subject to the Stress of Two Distinct Herbivores

Viability of plants, especially endangered species, are usually affected by multiple stressors, including insects, herbivores, environmental factors and other plant species. We present new mathematical models, based on systems of ordinary differential equations, of two distinct herbivore species feeding (two stressors) on the same plant species. The new feature is the explicit functional form modeling the simultaneous feedback interactions (synergistic or additive or antagonistic) between the three species in the ecosystem. The goal is to investigate whether the coexistence of the plant and both herbivore species is possible (a sustainable system) and under which conditions sustainability is feasible. Our theoretical analysis of the novel model without including competitions among the two herbivores reveals that the number of equilibrium states and their local stability depends on the type of interaction between the stressors: synergistic or additive or antagonistic. Our numerical results, based on value of parameters available, suggest that a sustainable system requires significant herbivore inter- or intra-species competition or both types. Additionally, our numerical findings indicate that competition and interaction of additive type promotes coexistence equilibrium states with the highest plant biomass. Furthermore, the system can exhibit periodic behavior and show the potential for multi-stability

Managing disease outbreaks: The importance of vector mobility and spatially heterogeneous control

This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.Management strategies for control of vector-borne diseases, for example Zika or dengue, include using larvicide and/or adulticide, either through large-scale application by truck or plane or through door-to-door efforts that require obtaining permission to access private property and spray yards. The efficacy of the latter strategy is highly dependent on the compliance of local residents. Here we develop a model for vector-borne disease transmission between mosquitoes and humans in a neighborhood setting, considering a network of houses connected via nearest-neighbor mosquito movement. We incorporate large-scale application of adulticide via aerial spraying through a uniform increase in vector death rates in all sites, and door-to-door application of larval source reduction and adulticide through a decrease in vector emergence rates and an increase in vector death rates in compliant sites only, where control efficacies are directly connected to real-world experimentally measurable control parameters, application frequencies, and control costs. To develop mechanistic insight into the influence of vector motion and compliance clustering on disease controllability, we determine the basic reproduction number R0 for the system, provide analytic results for the extreme cases of no mosquito movement, infinite hopping rates, and utilize degenerate perturbation theory for the case of slow but non-zero hopping rates. We then determine the application frequencies required for each strategy (alone and combined) in order to reduce R0 to unity, along with the associated costs. Cost-optimal strategies are found to depend strongly on mosquito hopping rates, levels of door-to-door compliance, and spatial clustering of compliant houses, and can include aerial spray alone, door-to-door treatment alone, or a combination of both. The optimization scheme developed here provides a flexible tool for disease management planners which translates modeling results into actionable control advice adaptable to system-specific details.Simons Foundation (426126)University of Kansas General Research Grant (2301-2105075)Department of Defense SERDP contract (W912HQ-16-C-0054

Geochemistry of fluid discharges from Peteroa volcano (Argentina-Chile) in 2010-2015: Insights into compositional changes related to the fluid source region(s).

This study presents the first geochemical data of fluid discharges collected from February 2010 to March 2015 from the Planchon-Peteroa-Azufre Volcanic Complex (PPAVC), located in the Transitional Southern Volcanic Zone (TSVZ) at the border between Argentina and Chile. During the study period, from January 2010 to July 2011, Peteroa volcano experienced phreatic to phreatomagmatic eruption possibly related to the devastating Maule earthquake occurred on February 27, 2010. The compositional dataset includes low temperature (from 43.2 to 102 degrees C) gas discharges from (i) the summit of Peteroa volcano and (ii) the SE flank of Azufre volcano, both marked by a significant magmatic fluid contribution, as well as bubbling gases located at the foothill of the Peteroa volcanic edifice, which showed a chemical signature typical of hydrothermal fluids. In 2012, strong compositional changes affected the Peteroa gases from the summit area: the acidic gas species, especially SO2, increased, suggesting an input of fluids from magma degassing. Nevertheless, the R/Ra and delta C-13-CO2 values decreased, which would imply an enhanced contribution from a meteoric-hydrothermal source. In 2014-2015, the chemical and isotopic compositions of the 2010-2011 gases were partially restored. The anomalous decoupling between the chemical and the isotopic parameters was tentatively interpreted as produced by degassing activity from a small batch of dacitic magma that in 2012 masked the compositional signature of the magmatic fluids released from a basaltic magma that dominated the gas chemistry in 2010-2011. This explanation reliably justifies the observed geochemical data, although the mechanisms leading to the change in time of the dominating magmatic fluid source are not clear. At this regard, a geophysical survey able to provide information on the location of the two magma batches could be useful to clarify the possible relationships between the compositional changes that affected the Peteroa fluid discharges and the 2010-2011 eruptive activity.FONDECYT Iniciacion Project 11100372 FONDAP "Centro de Excelencia en Geotermia de los Andes" 15090013 Universidad de Buenos Aires UBACyT 20020120300077BA IDEAN institute (UBA-CONICET) Laboratory of Fluid and Rock Geochemistry of the Department of Earth Sciences (Florence, Italy

Pembaharuan Proses Pembelajaran Melalui Skema Evaluasi Pada Siswa Sekolah Dasar Inpres Wedomu (Program Pengabdian Masyarakat Mahasiswa Universitas Katolik Widya Mandira di Kabupaten Belu, Nusa Tenggara Timur)

Pandemi covid-19 memberikan dampak yang cukup signifikan termasuk dalam lembaga pendidikan. Pembelajaran secara daring menjadi pilihan yang harus dilakukan agar proses belajar mengajar tetap berjalan sebagaimana mestinya. Proses ini tentu menimbulkan banyak kendala yang dialami hingga berdampak pada menurunnya motivasi belajar siswa. SDI Wedomu merupakan salah satu lembaga pendidikan yang siswa/i-nya mengalami penurunan motivasi belajar akibat pandemic covid-19. Mengacu pada berbagai kendala selama pembelajaran secara daring, maka mahasiswa peserta KKNT-PPM Universitas katolik Widya Mandira memiliki salah satu program kerja utama yakni pengajaran dan pendampingan belajar bagi siswa sekolah dasar, dengan tujuan membangkitkan motivasi belajar siswa pasca pandemi. Fokus dari program ini adalah membantu siswa/i belajar membaca, menulis dan berhitung. Terdapat 5 tahapan dalam rangkaian program kerja ini yakni; observasi lingkungan, kerjasama dengan sekolah mitra, persiapan, pelaksanaan pengajaran dan bimbingan belajar, serta yang terakhir adalah evaluasi. Rangkaian kegiatan ini ditutup dengan adanya kegiatan gebyar literasi yakni lomba menarasikan cerita rakyat dan lomba narasi puisi. Hasil dari program kerja ini walau tidak secara instan membangkitkan motivasi belajar siswa/i, namun semangat belajar berangsur kembali pasca pandemi covid-19. Hal ini dapat dilihat dari siswa/i yang semangat mengerjakan tugas sekolah dan mengikuti pembelajaran dikelas hingga puncaknya adalah mengikuti gebyar literasi

Mediciones de gases en la pluma cratérica y en fumarolas hidrotermales del Complejo Copahue - Caviahue

El Complejo Copahue - Caviahue (provincia de Neuquén) aloja un sistema hidrotermal con un interesante potencial geotérmico y, además, a uno de los volcanes más activos de Argentina: el volcán Copahue. Tanto este volcán como las áreas termales periféricas presentan emisiones gaseosas, las cuales permanentemente aportan información acerca de la actividad del volcán y de las condiciones de los fluidos en el acuífero geotermal. Por este motivo, llevar a cabo un seguimiento de las manifestaciones gaseosas consiste en una actividad relevante y con diversas aplicaciones.En febrero del 2020 se llevó a cabo una campaña de medición de gases en el complejo mencionado. El instrumental utilizado consistió en un equipo Multigas desarrollado por el ICES ? CNEA, capaz de tomar mediciones en tiempo real de concentraciones de CO2, SO2 y H2S, así como de condiciones atmosféricas tales como la presión y la temperatura. Este instrumento fue utilizado para tomar mediciones de la composición de: (i) la pluma cratérica del volcán Copahue y (ii) de las fumarolas en dos sitios termales (Villa de Copahue y Las Maquinitas), emitidas desde el acuífero geotermal periférico. Además, en el sitio Villa de Copahue se realizaron mediciones de flujo de CO2 emitido a través del suelo, con un flujómetro comercial West Systems.Las mediciones en la pluma cratérica del volcán Copahue permitieron obtener relaciones CO2/SO2. Esta valiosa relación constituye una señal geoquímica precursora de erupciones volcánicas. Por otro lado, en las dos áreas termales periféricas se obtuvieron relaciones CO2/H2S. Por último, en la Villa de Copahue se realizó un mapa de flujo del CO2 del suelo, se cuantificó la cantidad de este gas liberado a la atmósfera y, utilizando la relación CO2/H2S, se obtuvo una estimación de la cantidad de H2S emitido.Fil: Lamberti, María Clara Isabel. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinación Administrativa Ciudad Universitaria. Instituto de Estudios Andinos "Don Pablo Groeber". Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Instituto de Estudios Andinos "Don Pablo Groeber"; Argentina. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Departamento de Ciencias Geológicas. Grupo de Estudio y Seguimiento de Volcanes Activos; ArgentinaFil: Núñez, N.. Comisión Nacional de Energía Atómica; ArgentinaFil: Sánchez, H.. Comisión Nacional de Energía Atómica; ArgentinaFil: Llano, Joaquin. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinación Administrativa Ciudad Universitaria. Instituto de Estudios Andinos "Don Pablo Groeber". Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Instituto de Estudios Andinos "Don Pablo Groeber"; Argentina. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Departamento de Ciencias Geológicas. Grupo de Estudio y Seguimiento de Volcanes Activos; ArgentinaFil: Carbajal, F.. Secretaría de Industria y Minería. Servicio Geológico Minero Argentino; ArgentinaFil: Vesga Ramires, A.. Comisión Nacional de Energía Atómica; ArgentinaFil: Forte, Pablo Brian. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinación Administrativa Ciudad Universitaria. Instituto de Estudios Andinos "Don Pablo Groeber". Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Instituto de Estudios Andinos "Don Pablo Groeber"; Argentina. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Departamento de Ciencias Geológicas. Grupo de Estudio y Seguimiento de Volcanes Activos; ArgentinaFil: Massenzio, Antonella. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinación Administrativa Ciudad Universitaria. Instituto de Estudios Andinos "Don Pablo Groeber". Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Instituto de Estudios Andinos "Don Pablo Groeber"; Argentina. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Departamento de Ciencias Geológicas. Grupo de Estudio y Seguimiento de Volcanes Activos; ArgentinaFil: García, S.. Secretaría de Industria y Minería. Servicio Geológico Minero Argentino; ArgentinaFil: Agusto, Mariano Roberto. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinación Administrativa Ciudad Universitaria. Instituto de Estudios Andinos "Don Pablo Groeber". Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Instituto de Estudios Andinos "Don Pablo Groeber"; Argentina. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Departamento de Ciencias Geológicas. Grupo de Estudio y Seguimiento de Volcanes Activos; ArgentinaFil: Gómez, M.. Comisión Nacional de Energía Atómica; Argentina15° Encuentro del Centro Internacional de Ciencias de la TierraMendozaArgentinaUniversidad Nacional de CuyoComisión Nacional de Energía Atómic

Assessment of optimal strategies in a two-patch dengue transmission model with seasonality

Emerging and re-emerging dengue fever has posed serious problems to public health officials in many tropical and subtropical countries. Continuous traveling in seasonally varying areas makes it more difficult to control the spread of dengue fever. In this work, we consider a two-patch dengue model that can capture the movement of host individuals between and within patches using a residence-time matrix. A previous two-patch dengue model without seasonality is extended by adding host demographics and seasonal forcing in the transmission rates. We investigate the effects of human movement and seasonality on the two-patch dengue transmission dynamics. Motivated by the recent Peruvian dengue data in jungle/rural areas and coast/urban areas, our model mimics the seasonal patterns of dengue outbreaks in two patches. The roles of seasonality and residence-time configurations are highlighted in terms of the seasonal reproduction number and cumulative incidence. Moreover, optimal control theory is employed to identify and evaluate patch-specific control measures aimed at reducing dengue prevalence in the presence of seasonality. Our findings demonstrate that optimal patch-specific control strategies are sensitive to seasonality and residence-time scenarios. Targeting only the jungle (or endemic) is as effective as controlling both patches under weak coupling or symmetric mobility. However, focusing on intervention for the city (or high density areas) turns out to be optimal when two patches are strongly coupled with asymmetric mobility.ope

Songs with Obbligato

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