Artificial neural-network technique for precipitation nowcasting from satellite imagery

The term nowcasting reflects the need of timely and accurate predictions of risky situations related to the development of severe meteorological events. In this work the objective is the very short term prediction of the rainfall field from geostationary satellite imagery entirely based on neural network approach. The very short-time prediction (or nowcasting) process consists of two steps: first, the infrared radiance field measured from geostationary satellite (Meteosat 7) is projected ahead in time (30 min or 1 h); secondly, the projected radiances are used to estimate the rainfall field by means of a calibrated microwave-based combined algorithm. The methodology is discussed and its accuracy is quantified by means of error indicators. An application to a satellite observation of a rainfall event over Central Italy is finally shown and evaluated

Impact of Blood Pressure Variability on Cardiac and Cerebrovascular Complications in Hypertension

n/

DecidArch: Playing Cards as Software Architects

Teaching software architecture is a challenge because of the difficulty to expose students to actual meaningful design situations. Games can provide a useful illustration of the design decision making process, and teach students the power of team interaction for making sound decisions. We introduce a game –DecidArch– developed to achieve three learning objectives: 1) create awareness about the rationale involved in design decision making, 2) enable appreciation of the reasoning behind candidate design decisions proposed by others, and 3) create awareness about interdependencies between design decisions. The game has been played by 22 groups with a total of 83 players, all of them students of the VU software architecture course. We present some of the lessons learned, both from our observation and through participant survey. We conclude that the game well supports our three learning objectives, and we identify several improvement points for future game editions

Satellite radiometric remote sensing of rainfall fields: multi-sensor retrieval techniques at geostationary scale

International audienceThe Microwave Infrared Combined Rainfall Algorithm (MICRA) consists in a statistical integration method using the satellite microwave-based rain-rate estimates, assumed to be accurate enough, to calibrate spaceborne infrared measurements on limited sub-regions and time windows. Rainfall retrieval is pursued at the space-time scale of typical geostationary observations, that is at a spatial resolution of few kilometers and a repetition period of few tens of minutes. The actual implementation is explained, although the basic concepts of MICRA are very general and the method is easy to be extended for considering innovative statistical techniques or measurements from additional space-borne platforms. In order to demonstrate the potentiality of MICRA, case studies over central Italy are also discussed. Finally, preliminary results of MICRA validation by ground based remote and in situ measurements are shown and a comparison with a Neural Network (NN) based technique is briefly illustrated

DecidArch: Playing Cards as Software Architects

Teaching software architecture is a challenge because of the difficulty to expose students to actual meaningful design situations. Games can provide a useful illustration of the design decision making process, and teach students the power of team interaction for making sound decisions. We introduce a game –DecidArch– developed to achieve three learning objectives: _x0001_1) create awareness about the rationale involved in design decision making, _x0002_2) enable appreciation of the reasoning behind candidate design decisions proposed by others, and _x0003_3) create awareness about interdependencies between design decisions. The game has been played by _x0002__x0002_ groups with a total of _x0008__x0003_ players, all of them students of the VU software architecture course. We present some of the lessons learned, both from our observation and through participant survey. We conclude that the game well supports our three learning objectives, and we identify several improvement points for future game editions

Age adjustment of cancer survival rates: methods, point estimates and standard errors

We empirically evaluated the performance of a new method for age adjustment of cancer survival compared to traditional age adjustment using data from the Finnish Cancer Registry. We find that both methods provide almost identical results for absolute survival but the new method generally provides more meaningful estimates of relative survival with often a smaller standard error

Renin Angiotensin System Blockers and Risk of Mortality in Hypertensive Patients Hospitalized for COVID-19: An Italian Registry

Background: It is uncertain whether exposure to renin\u2013angiotensin system (RAS) modifiers affects the severity of the new coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) because most of the available studies are retrospective. Methods: We tested the prognostic value of exposure to RAS modifiers (either angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitors [ACE-Is] or angiotensin receptor blockers [ARBs]) in a prospective study of hypertensive patients with COVID-19. We analyzed data from 566 patients (mean age 75 years, 54% males, 162 ACE-Is users, and 147 ARBs users) hospitalized in five Italian hospitals. The study used systematic prospective data collection according to a pre-specified protocol. All-cause mortality during hospitalization was the primary outcome. Results: Sixty-six patients died during hospitalization. Exposure to RAS modifiers was associated with a significant reduction in the risk of in-hospital mortality when compared to other BP-lowering strategies (odds ratio [OR]: 0.54, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.32 to 0.90, p = 0.019). Exposure to ACE-Is was not significantly associated with a reduced risk of in-hospital mortality when compared with patients not treated with RAS modifiers (OR: 0.66, 95% CI: 0.36 to 1.20, p = 0.172). Conversely, ARBs users showed a 59% lower risk of death (OR: 0.41, 95% CI: 0.20 to 0.84, p = 0.016) even after allowance for several prognostic markers, including age, oxygen saturation, occurrence of severe hypotension during hospitalization, and lymphocyte count (adjusted OR: 0.37, 95% CI: 0.17 to 0.80, p = 0.012). The discontinuation of RAS modifiers during hospitalization did not exert a significant effect (p = 0.515). Conclusions: This prospective study indicates that exposure to ARBs reduces mortality in hospitalized patients with COVID-19

Determining the date of diagnosis – is it a simple matter? The impact of different approaches to dating diagnosis on estimates of delayed care for ovarian cancer in UK primary care

Background Studies of cancer incidence and early management will increasingly draw on routine electronic patient records. However, data may be incomplete or inaccurate. We developed a generalisable strategy for investigating presenting symptoms and delays in diagnosis using ovarian cancer as an example. Methods The General Practice Research Database was used to investigate the time between first report of symptom and diagnosis of 344 women diagnosed with ovarian cancer between 01/06/2002 and 31/05/2008. Effects of possible inaccuracies in dating of diagnosis on the frequencies and timing of the most commonly reported symptoms were investigated using four increasingly inclusive definitions of first diagnosis/suspicion: 1. "Definite diagnosis" 2. "Ambiguous diagnosis" 3. "First treatment or complication suggesting pre-existing diagnosis", 4 "First relevant test or referral". Results The most commonly coded symptoms before a definite diagnosis of ovarian cancer, were abdominal pain (41%), urogenital problems(25%), abdominal distension (24%), constipation/change in bowel habits (23%) with 70% of cases reporting at least one of these. The median time between first reporting each of these symptoms and diagnosis was 13, 21, 9.5 and 8.5 weeks respectively. 19% had a code for definitions 2 or 3 prior to definite diagnosis and 73% a code for 4. However, the proportion with symptoms and the delays were similar for all four definitions except 4, where the median delay was 8, 8, 3, 10 and 0 weeks respectively. Conclusion Symptoms recorded in the General Practice Research Database are similar to those reported in the literature, although their frequency is lower than in studies based on self-report. Generalisable strategies for exploring the impact of recording practice on date of diagnosis in electronic patient records are recommended, and studies which date diagnoses in GP records need to present sensitivity analyses based on investigation, referral and diagnosis data. Free text information may be essential in obtaining accurate estimates of incidence, and for accurate dating of diagnoses