1,316 research outputs found

    Modelling innovation and the macroeconomics of low-carbon transitions: theory, perspectives and practical use

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    This is the author accepted manuscript. The final version is available from Taylor & Francis (Routledge) via the DOI in this record.Energy and climate policies may have significant economy-wide impacts, which are regularly assessed based on quantitative energy-environment-economy models. These tend to vary in their conclusions on the scale and direction of the likely macroeconomic impacts of a low-carbon transition. This paper traces the characteristic discrepancies in models’ outcomes to their origins in different macro-economic theories, most importantly their treatment of technological innovation and finance. We comprehensively analyse the relevant branches of macro-innovation theory and group them into two classes: ‘Equilibrium’ and ‘Non-equilibrium’. While both approaches are rigorous and self-consistent, they frequently yield opposite conclusions for the economic impacts of low-carbon policies. We show that model outcomes are mainly determined by their representations of monetary and finance dimensions, and their interactions with investment, innovation and technological change. Improving these in all modelling approaches is crucial for strengthening the evidence base for policy making and gaining a more consistent picture of the macroeconomic impacts of achieving emissions reductions objectives. The paper contributes towards the ongoing effort of enhancing the transparency and understanding of sophisticated model mechanisms applied to energy and climate policy analysis. It helps tackle the overall “black box” critique, much-cited in policy circles and elsewhere

    Size matters: the value of small populations for wintering waterbirds

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    Protecting systematically selected areas of land is a major step towards biodiversity conservation worldwide. Indeed, the identification and designation of protected areas more often than not forms a core component of both national and international conservation policies. In this paper we provide an overview of those Special Protection Areas and Ramsar Sites that have been classified in Great Britain as of 1998/99 for a selection of wintering waterbird species, using bird count data from the Wetland Bird Survey. The performance of this network of sites is remarkable, particularly in comparison with published analyses of networks elsewhere in the world. Nevertheless, the current site-based approach, whilst having the great benefit of simplicity, is deliberately biased towards aggregating species at the expense of the more dispersed distribution species. To ensure that the network continues successfully to protect nationally and internationally important waterbird populations, efforts now need to concentrate on the derivation of species-specific representation targets and, in particular, the ways in which these can be incorporated into the site selection process. Although these analyses concern the performance of protected areas for waterbirds in Great Britain, the results have wide-ranging importance for conservation planning in general and the design of protected area networks

    Valtion aluehallintovirastot ja niiden ylijohtajat: Pohjoiseurooppalainen analogia Ranskan prefeikteille

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    This chapter examines the closest Finnish analogy to the French function of the prefect. In Finland, since 2010, this function has been vested in the institution of the State Regional Administrative Agency (SRAA, aluehallintovirasto, ‘AVI’). There are six SRAAs, each headed by a Chief Director (ylijohtaja) nominated by the government. The study had four main findings. First, despite ambiguity in institutional terminology, classifications, boundaries and identities concerning the SRAA, one can discern few true functional or structural deficiencies. Second, the SRAA is a hybrid between an institution of its own and a territorial representative of either government ministries or government agencies, to which is related the fact that each SRAA has both responsibilities concerning its territory and nationwide responsibilities. Third, tensions between performance and institutional legitimation prevail in the institution of the SRAA, but again without serious deficiencies. Fourth, the 2010 substitution of the SRAA for the former Province comprised a radical institutional change. The 2015–2019 Finnish government intended to abolish the SRAAs, but the subsequent government abandoned that reform, and ultimately by mid-2020 it became clear that the institution of the SRAA was here to stay after all.Peer reviewe

    Risk-opportunity analysis for transformative policy design and appraisal

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    The climate crisis demands a strong response from policy-makers worldwide. The current global climate policy agenda requires technological change, innovation, labour markets and the financial system to be led towards an orderly and rapid low-carbon transition. Yet progress has been slow and incremental. Inadequacies of policy appraisal frameworks used worldwide may be significant contributors to the problem, as they frequently fail to adequately account for the dynamics of societal and technological change. Risks are underestimated, and the economic opportunities from innovation are generally not assessed in practice. Here, we identify root causes of those inadequacies and identify them to structural features of standard analysis frameworks. We use a review of theoretical principles of complexity science and the science of dynamical systems and formulate a generalisation of existing frameworks for policy analysis and the appraisal of outcomes of proposed policy strategies, to help better identify and frame situations of transformational change. We use the term “risk-opportunity analysis” to capture the generalised approach, in which conventional economic cost-benefit analysis is a special case. New guiding principles for policy-making during dynamic and transformational change are offered

    Climate model emulation in an integrated assessment framework: a case study for mitigation policies in the electricity sector

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    We present a carbon-cycle–climate modelling framework using model emulation, designed for integrated assessment modelling, which introduces a new emulator of the carbon cycle (GENIEem). We demonstrate that GENIEem successfully reproduces the CO2 concentrations of the Representative Concentration Pathways when forced with the corresponding CO2 emissions and non-CO2 forcing. To demonstrate its application as part of the integrated assessment framework, we use GENIEem along with an emulator of the climate (PLASIM- ENTSem) to evaluate global CO2 concentration levels and spatial temperature and precipitation response pat- terns resulting from CO2 emission scenarios. These scenarios are modelled using a macroeconometric model (E3MG) coupled to a model of technology substitution dynamics (FTT), and represent different emissions reduction policies applied solely in the electricity sector, without mitigation in the rest of the economy. The effect of cascading uncertainty is apparent, but despite uncertainties, it is clear that in all scenarios, global mean tem- peratures in excess of 2 °C above pre-industrial levels are projected by the end of the century. Our approach also highlights the regional temperature and precipitation patterns associated with the global mean temperature change occurring in these scenarios, enabling more robust impacts modelling and emphasizing the necessity of focusing on spatial patterns in addition to global mean temperature change

    A two-year study with cimetidine in the rat: assessment for chronic toxicity and carcinogenicity

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    T. F. (1981). Toxicol. Appl. PharmacoL 61, 119-137. Cimetidine [Am-cyano-N-methyl-N1-{2-[(5-methylimidazol-4-yl)methylthio]ethyl}guanidine] was administered daily for 2 years by gavage to Wistar rats at dose levels of 950, 378, and 150 mg/kg/day. Two groups, one receiving distilled wathr daily and the other not treated, served as controls. Premature deaths occurred when cimetidine was accidentally introduced into the lungs or reached the lungs by seepage from the esophagus via the larynx during intragastric administration but cimetidine treatment did not otherwise affect survival, body weight gain, clinical condition, and hematological, or urinalysis parameters. Raised transaminase levels occurred occasionally during the second year of the study in top dose males and there was a significant increase in mean liver weight in top dose females killed terminally compared with controls. Histopathological observations of the livers of these animals indicated only nonspecific changes. Mean prostate and seminal vesicle weights were significantly lower in all groups receiving cimetidine than in controls and there was dose-related atrophy of the seminiferous tubules and atrophy of the male secondary sex organs. There were no other apparent effects of treatment on nontumor pathology. Overall tumor incidence, after the exclusion of Leydig-cell tumors, was not affected by cimetidine treatment. A significantly higher incidence of benign Leydig-cell tumors in the combined cimetidine-treated groups compared with the combined control groups was confined to rats killed during Weeks 105 and 106 and was not dose related. No meaningful treatmentrelated effects on incidence were observed for any other kind of neoplasm. Cimetidine is a specific, competitive histamine H2-receptor antagonist as defined by Black et al. (1972) and is an effective inhibitor of gastric acid secretion in animals and in man. Cimetidine has been shown to have low acute toxicity and repeated dose studies of up to 12 months duration in rats and dogs have revealed no major adverse effects The present paper presents the results of a 2-year toxicity study in the rat with particular attention to incidences of neoplastic lesions

    Laminitis equina in vitro inducida por veneno entero y Fosfolipasa A2 de serpiente Bothrops alternatus de Argentina

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    Bothrops alternatus (yarará grande, víbora de la cruz) is a snake belonging to the Viperidae family and is widely distributed in Argentina. In the northeast, this snake group for the majority of the snakebite accidents. There are reports about envenomation in horses with clinical signs including swelling, hemorrhage, dermo and myonecrosis at the bite sight in addition to systemic effects such as impaired blood coagulation, hemorrhage and damage to vital organs. An additional consequence in the horse is laminitis which reduces the work capacity of the survivor on a long-term basis. This occurs independent of the site where the venom was injected. laminitis induces pain and claudication, and it can evolve to deform the hoof. This study uses explants from freshly slaughtered horses as an in-vitro assay from the limbs of normal horses in order to demonstrate the ability of Bothrops snake venom to cause laminitis. Explants were incubated with whole venom and phospholipases A2 (PLA2). The objective was to reproduce laminitis in vitro to corroborate the clinical data reported in snake venom accidents. Equine laminitis induced by whole venom was characterized by damage to the lamellar dermo-epidermal junction, loosening of the lamellar basement membrane and cytotoxic effects. Epidermal basal cells showed changes in the shape and size of their nuclei and other abnormalities.Bothrops alternatus (yarará grande, víbora de la cruz) es una serpiente perteneciente a la familia Viperidae, y se encuentra ampliamente distribuida en Argentina. En el nordeste de nuestro país, esta serpiente ocasiona el mayor número de accidentes. Existen reportes de envenenamiento en equinos, siendo sus signos y síntomas más importantes: inflamación y hemorragia, dermo y mionecrosis en el área de inoculación del veneno. Por otro lado, la acción sistémica consiste en incoagulabilidad sanguínea, hemorragia y lesiones de órganos que pueden comprometer la salud del animal. Una secuela, debida a la intoxicación por esta serpiente, es la laminitis, que afecta la capacidad de trabajo del equino, independientemente del sitio de inoculación del veneno, debido a la acción sistémica del mismo. Esta patología produce dolor, claudicación, que luego puede progresar con deformación del casco. Se efectuó un estudio in vitro, tomando como modelo  experimental muestras (explantes) de pie equino. Estas fueron incubadas con veneno entero y con Fosfolipasa A2 (PLA2) del mismo veneno con el objeto de reproducir laminitis a los efectos de corroborar datos clínicos reportados en accidentes por yarará como así también proponer una metodología de estudio de laminitis en explantes de pie equino. La laminitis inducida por el veneno entero se caracterizó por la separación de la unión dermo–epidérmica, desprendimiento de membrana basal y citotoxicidad y consecuentemente desprendimiento de unión dermo–epidérmica, permaneciendo las células basales epidérmicas con alteraciones en forma y tamaño de los núcleos, entre otras anormalidades. En contraste, las muestras incubadas con PLA2, las células basales epidérmicas mostraron anomalías citoplasmáticas y nucleares, pero con separación leve de la unión dermoepidérmica y presente solo en algunas áreas de las LES
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