Forecasting the Brazilian yield curve using forward-looking variables

This paper proposes a forecasting model that combines a factor augmented VAR (FAVAR) methodology with the Nelson and Siegel (NS) parametrization of the yield curve in order to predict the Brazilian term structure of interest rates. Importantly, we extract the principal components for the FAVAR from a large data set containing a range of forward-looking macroeconomic and financial variables. Our forecasting model improves on the predictive accuracy of extant models in the literature significantly, particularly at short-term horizons. For instance, the mean absolute forecast errors are 15–40% lower than those of the random walk benchmark on predictions at the three-month horizon. The out-of-sample analysis shows that the inclusion of forward-looking indicators is the key to improving the predictive ability of the model

A microsatellite marker for yellow rust resistance in wheat

Bulk segregant analysis (BSA) was used to identify molecular markers associated with yellow rust disease resistance in wheat (Triticum aestivum L.). DNAs isolated from the selected yellow rust tolerant and susceptible F-2 individuals derived from a cross between yellow rust resistant and susceptible wheat genotypes were used to established a "tolerant" and a "susceptible" DNA pool. The BSA was then performed on these DNA pools using 230 markers that were previously mapped onto the individual wheat chromosomes. One of the SSR markers (Xgwm382) located on chromosome group 2 (A, B, D genomes) was present in the resistant parent and the resistant bulk but not in the susceptible parent and the susceptible bulk, suggesting that this marker is linked to a yellow rust resistance gene. The presence of Xgwm382 was also tested in 108 additional wheat genotypes differing in yellow rust resistance. This analysis showed that 81% of the wheat genotypes known to be yellow rust resistant had the Xgwm382 marker, further suggesting that the presence of this marker correlates with yellow rust resistance in diverse wheat germplasm. Therefore, Xgwm382 could be useful for marker assisted selection of yellow rust resistances genotypes in wheat breeding programs

Anti-Apoptotic Machinery Protects the Necrotrophic Fungus Botrytis cinerea from Host-Induced Apoptotic-Like Cell Death during Plant Infection

Necrotrophic fungi are unable to occupy living plant cells. How such pathogens survive first contact with living host tissue and initiate infection is therefore unclear. Here, we show that the necrotrophic grey mold fungus Botrytis cinerea undergoes massive apoptotic-like programmed cell death (PCD) following germination on the host plant. Manipulation of an anti-apoptotic gene BcBIR1 modified fungal response to PCD-inducing conditions. As a consequence, strains with reduced sensitivity to PCD were hyper virulent, while strains in which PCD was over-stimulated showed reduced pathogenicity. Similarly, reduced levels of PCD in the fungus were recorded following infection of Arabidopsis mutants that show enhanced susceptibility to B. cinerea. When considered together, these results suggest that Botrytis PCD machinery is targeted by plant defense molecules, and that the fungal anti-apoptotic machinery is essential for overcoming this host-induced PCD and hence, for establishment of infection. As such, fungal PCD machinery represents a novel target for fungicides and antifungal drugs

Central Bank Communication Affects the Term-Structure of Interest Rates *

We empirically analyze how the Brazilian Central Bank (BCB) communication affects the term structure of future interest rates. Using principal components analysis, we construct a measure of the Monetary Policy Committee Minutes content that reflects policy makers optimism about the economic conditions. We call this measure the Optimism Factor (OF). When policy makers are more optimistic, reflected by increments in the OF, markets expectations respond and long-term future interest rates drop. Furthermore, when policy makers are pessimistic, reflected by a decrease in the OF, volatility on future interest rates increases. Our result indicates that policy maker communication has an effective impact on market expectations. Analisamos empiricamente como as atas do Banco Central do Brasil (BCB) afetam a estrutura a termos da taxa de juros. Usando Análise de Componentes Principais, construímos uma medida do conteúdo dessas atas que reflete o otimismo dos gestores de política monetária em relação às condições economicas. Nomeamos essa medida de Fator de Otimismo (OF). Quando os gestores estão mais otimista

Behaviours of French amateur rugby players, lifestyle of the younger at higher risk for their heart?

International audienc

Selecting with markers linked to the PPVres major QTL is not sufficient to predict resistance to Plum Pox Virus (PPV) in apricot

Sharka is one of the most serious viral diseases affecting stone fruit species and, in apricot, resistance to its viral agent, the Plum Pox Virus (PPV), is conferred by one major quantitative trait locus (QTL), named PPVres for PPV resistance. Previous studies indicated that PPV-resistant cultivars and breeding progenies can be selected by using a set of SSR markers (named PGS) targeting the PPVres locus. However, before these markers can be employed for marker-assisted selection, they were validated in a wide range of genetic backgrounds and environments. We used a total of 11 mapping populations issued from three distinct environments to confirm that this marker set located within the QTL adequately predicted PPV resistance. In this study, we show that selection of PPV-resistant material based only on markers co-localizing with the PPVres major locus is not fully reliable. Indeed, genotype-phenotype discrepancies were observed depending on the progeny and the PPV-resistant/susceptible parents. While most of the PPV-resistant individuals displayed the resistant alleles, a significant number of PPV-susceptible individuals showed the same resistant haplotype. An effect of the PPV strain used for phenotyping was also demonstrated. We thus hypothesize that the presence of other factors or genes involved in the mechanism of resistance to sharka in apricot could explain these unexpected results. Our work indicates that the current PGS marker set is not broadly applicable for MAS and that marker-assisted breeding based on the sole PPVres locus is not sufficient to unambiguously select PPV-resistant apricot cultivars