New results on the influence of climate on the distribution of population and economic activity

This paper applies G-Econ+, an updated version of the G-Econ database by Nordhaus, to analyze the influence of climatic and geographic factors on the geographic distribution of population and economic activity. I discuss options for improved treatment of several statistical problems associated with G-Econ, which are not addressed adequately in the original G-Econ analysis. Reanalysis of key results from the original G-Econ analysis corrects some surprising results therein. Extensive sensitivity analysis determines the robustness of the relationship between climatic factors and economic activity across alternative central estimators. Further analysis assesses revealed climatic preferences of population, the effects of climate parameters on different quantiles of economic variables, and synergies between temperature and precipitation. I find that population density has a much stronger influence on output density than output per capita. Furthermore, least developed countries are located in a climatic zone where all indicators of economic activity decline with increasing temperature.Climate; macroeconomics; population; cross-sectional analysis; G-Econ

Global maps of climate change impacts on the favourability for human habitation and economic activity

This paper analyzes the statistical relationship between climatic factors and the global distribution of population and economic activity. Building on this analysis, a new method is developed for assessing geographically explicit impacts of climate change on the suitability of regions for human habitation and economic activity. This method combines information about differences in the conditional distributions of population density and economic activity across climate categories with climate change projections from an ensemble of general circulation models. In contrast to other cross-sectional analyses of the economic impacts of climate change, the method applied here does not require specific assumptions about the functional form of the relationship between climatic and non-climatic factors on the one hand, and population density and economic activity on the other. The results indicate that climate change will improve the habitability of some scarcely populated regions, in particular in Canada, Scandinavia, Russia, Mongolia, northern China, Tibet, and parts of Central Asia, but it will impair the habitability of many densely populated regions in the eastern USA, southern Europe, northern and southern Africa, eastern China, and parts of Australia. Most parts of India, South-East Asia and Oceania, Central America and northern South America, the Sahara and the Sahel are projected to experience climatic conditions during this century that have no geographical analogue in the present climate. Hence, a large majority of the world’s population is living in regions whose habitability is either projected to decrease or that are projected to experience globally unprecedented climate conditions within this century under a business-as-usual emissions scenario.Climate change; macroeconomics; population; cross-sectional analysis

New results on the influence of climate on the distribution of population and economic activity

This paper applies G-Econ+, an updated version of the G-Econ database by Nordhaus, to analyze the influence of climatic and geographic factors on the geographic distribution of population and economic activity. I discuss options for improved treatment of several statistical problems associated with G-Econ, which are not addressed adequately in the original G-Econ analysis. Reanalysis of key results from the original G-Econ analysis corrects some surprising results therein. Extensive sensitivity analysis determines the robustness of the relationship between climatic factors and economic activity across alternative central estimators. Further analysis assesses revealed climatic preferences of population, the effects of climate parameters on different quantiles of economic variables, and synergies between temperature and precipitation. I find that population density has a much stronger influence on output density than output per capita. Furthermore, least developed countries are located in a climatic zone where all indicators of economic activity decline with increasing temperature

New results on the influence of climate on the distribution of population and economic activity

This paper applies G-Econ+, an updated version of the G-Econ database by Nordhaus, to analyze the influence of climatic and geographic factors on the geographic distribution of population and economic activity. I discuss options for improved treatment of several statistical problems associated with G-Econ, which are not addressed adequately in the original G-Econ analysis. Reanalysis of key results from the original G-Econ analysis corrects some surprising results therein. Extensive sensitivity analysis determines the robustness of the relationship between climatic factors and economic activity across alternative central estimators. Further analysis assesses revealed climatic preferences of population, the effects of climate parameters on different quantiles of economic variables, and synergies between temperature and precipitation. I find that population density has a much stronger influence on output density than output per capita. Furthermore, least developed countries are located in a climatic zone where all indicators of economic activity decline with increasing temperature

Global maps of climate change impacts on the favourability for human habitation and economic activity

This paper analyzes the statistical relationship between climatic factors and the global distribution of population and economic activity. Building on this analysis, a new method is developed for assessing geographically explicit impacts of climate change on the suitability of regions for human habitation and economic activity. This method combines information about differences in the conditional distributions of population density and economic activity across climate categories with climate change projections from an ensemble of general circulation models. In contrast to other cross-sectional analyses of the economic impacts of climate change, the method applied here does not require specific assumptions about the functional form of the relationship between climatic and non-climatic factors on the one hand, and population density and economic activity on the other. The results indicate that climate change will improve the habitability of some scarcely populated regions, in particular in Canada, Scandinavia, Russia, Mongolia, northern China, Tibet, and parts of Central Asia, but it will impair the habitability of many densely populated regions in the eastern USA, southern Europe, northern and southern Africa, eastern China, and parts of Australia. Most parts of India, South-East Asia and Oceania, Central America and northern South America, the Sahara and the Sahel are projected to experience climatic conditions during this century that have no geographical analogue in the present climate. Hence, a large majority of the world’s population is living in regions whose habitability is either projected to decrease or that are projected to experience globally unprecedented climate conditions within this century under a business-as-usual emissions scenario

Global maps of climate change impacts on the favourability for human habitation and economic activity

This paper analyzes the statistical relationship between climatic factors and the global distribution of population and economic activity. Building on this analysis, a new method is developed for assessing geographically explicit impacts of climate change on the suitability of regions for human habitation and economic activity. This method combines information about differences in the conditional distributions of population density and economic activity across climate categories with climate change projections from an ensemble of general circulation models. In contrast to other cross-sectional analyses of the economic impacts of climate change, the method applied here does not require specific assumptions about the functional form of the relationship between climatic and non-climatic factors on the one hand, and population density and economic activity on the other. The results indicate that climate change will improve the habitability of some scarcely populated regions, in particular in Canada, Scandinavia, Russia, Mongolia, northern China, Tibet, and parts of Central Asia, but it will impair the habitability of many densely populated regions in the eastern USA, southern Europe, northern and southern Africa, eastern China, and parts of Australia. Most parts of India, South-East Asia and Oceania, Central America and northern South America, the Sahara and the Sahel are projected to experience climatic conditions during this century that have no geographical analogue in the present climate. Hence, a large majority of the world’s population is living in regions whose habitability is either projected to decrease or that are projected to experience globally unprecedented climate conditions within this century under a business-as-usual emissions scenario

Global population‐weighted degree‐day projections for a combination of climate and socio‐economic scenarios

AbstractThe projected global temperature increase in the 21st century is expected to have consequences on energy consumption due to increase (decrease) in energy demand to cool (heat) the built environments. Such increase (decrease) also depends on the number of end users for such energy, thus it is crucial to include population into the analyses. This study presents population‐weighted (w) cooling (CDD), heating (HDD), and energy (EDD) degree‐day projections at global, regional, and local scales for the 21st century. We used a large ensemble of high‐resolution (0.44°) climate simulations from the COordinated Regional‐climate Downscaling EXperiment (CORDEX) to compute degree‐days for baseline (1981–2010) and global warming levels (GWLs from 1.5°C to 4°C), based on two representative concentration pathways. We used population projections from the NASA‐SEDAC datasets, driven by five socio‐economic scenarios (SSPs). The progressive increase in CDD outbalances the decrease in HDD in Central and South America, Africa, and Oceania and the opposite situation is likely to occur in North America, Europe, and Asia; at global scale, they are balanced. However, if results are weighted according to population, the increase in wCDD outbalances the decrease in wHDD almost everywhere for most GWLs and SSPs. Few regions show a decreasing tendency in wEDD at high GWLs for all SSPs: central Europe, northwestern, northeastern, and eastern Asia. Globally, wEDD are likely to double at 2°C compared to 1981–2010 independently of the SSP. Under the worst‐case scenario (SSP3), at 4°C wCDD are approximately 380% higher and wHDD approximately 30% lower than in the recent past, leading to an increase in wEDD close to 300%

Wahrheit – Geschwindigkeit – Pluralität

Neue Techniken zur Informationsübermittlung befördern den Informationsaustausch. Das ist eine für das 20. und 21. Jahrhundert ganz selbstverständliche Feststellung. Genauso selbstverständlich gilt sie aber auch für das 16. Jahrhundert und die Frühe Neuzeit insgesamt. Ein allseits bekanntes Beispiel dafür ist die Verbesserung der Techniken des Buchdrucks durch die Verwendung beweglicher Lettern. Dies führte dazu, dass neue Medien entstanden und sich dauerhaft etablierten, wie z.B. die Flugschrift und die „Neue Zeitung“. Andere bereits bekannte Genera wie Lieder und Predigten erhielten durch die veränderte Kommunikationssituation eine neue Bedeutung in den Auseinandersetzungen der Zeit. Daraus ergaben sich vielfältige Chancen und Heraus­forderungen, denn die Nutzung dieser neuen Medien wie die Transformation bestehender Medienformate und deren flächendeckende Verwendung setzte politische, soziale, juristische und religiöse Veränderungsprozesse in Gang bzw. beförderte sie.Die Beiträge des Sammelbandes möchten diese neuen Kommunikationsformen und -methoden ebenso wie die Veränderungsprozesse für das 16. Jahrhundert ausleuchten. Dies geschieht, indem Wandlungs- und Transformationsprozesse durch die Nutzung bekannter sowie die Schaffung neuer Medienformate, der Umgang mit Meinungsvielfalt und der damit einhergehenden Pluralität an Deutungen des Zeitgeschehens sowie die Entstehung einer neuen Streitkultur und neue Ordnungsversuche analysiert werden

Vulnerability and its discontents: the past, present, and future of climate change vulnerability research

The concept of vulnerability is well established in the climate change literature, underpinning significant research effort. The ability of vulnerability research to capture the complexities of climate-society dynamics has been increasingly questioned, however. In this paper, we identify, characterize, and evaluate concerns over the use of vulnerability approaches in the climate change field based on a review of peer-reviewed articles published since 1990 (n = 587). Seven concerns are identified: neglect of social drivers, promotion of a static understanding of human-environment interactions, vagueness about the concept of vulnerability, neglect of cross-scale interactions, passive and negative framing, limited influence on decision-making, and limited collaboration across disciplines. Examining each concern against trends in the literature, we find some of these concerns weakly justified, but others pose valid challenges to vulnerability research. Efforts to revitalize vulnerability research are needed, with priority areas including developing the next generation of empirical studies, catalyzing collaboration across disciplines to leverage and build on the strengths of divergent intellectual traditions involved in vulnerability research, and linking research to the practical realities of decision-making

Recht - Erziehung - Staat

Als Einstieg in das Heftthema untersuchen die Autoren den staatlichen Einfluß auf die Entwicklung des deutschen Bildungssystems, insbesondere im 18. und 19. Jahrhundert. (DIPF/Un