The Global Burden of Air Pollution on Mortality: The Need to Include Exposure to Household Biomass Fuel–Derived Particulates

First paragraph: Anenberg et al. (2010) demonstrated that global mortality associated with outdoor ozone and particulate matter (PM) exposure has been underestimated and that anthropogenic atmospheric PM rather than ozone is the main contributor to death. Although we acknowledge that their investigation was concerned with outdoor air pollution alone, we feel that attention should be drawn to the burden of disease from household air pollution

Long-term exposure to air-pollution and COVID-19 mortality in England: a hierarchical spatial analysis

Recent studies suggested a link between long-term exposure to air-pollution and COVID-19 mortality. However, due to their ecological design based on large spatial units, they neglect the strong localised air-pollution patterns, and potentially lead to inadequate confounding adjustment. We investigated the effect of long-term exposure to NO2 and PM2.5 on COVID-19 mortality in England using high geographical resolution. In this nationwide cross-sectional study in England, we included 38,573 COVID-19 deaths up to June 30, 2020 at the Lower Layer Super Output Area level (n = 32,844 small areas). We retrieved averaged NO2 and PM2.5 concentration during 2014–2018 from the Pollution Climate Mapping. We used Bayesian hierarchical models to quantify the effect of air-pollution while adjusting for a series of confounding and spatial autocorrelation. We find a 0.5% (95% credible interval: −0.2%, 1.2%) and 1.4% (95% CrI: −2.1%, 5.1%) increase in COVID-19 mortality risk for every 1 μg/m3 increase in NO2 and PM2.5 respectively, after adjusting for confounding and spatial autocorrelation. This corresponds to a posterior probability of a positive effect equal to 0.93 and 0.78 respectively. The spatial relative risk at LSOA level revealed strong patterns, similar for the different pollutants. This potentially captures the spread of the disease during the first wave of the epidemic. Our study provides some evidence of an effect of long-term NO2 exposure on COVID-19 mortality, while the effect of PM2.5 remains more uncertain

Original Article

The development of cognitive and socioemotional skills early in life influences later health and well-being. Existing estimates of unmet developmental potential in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) are based on either measures of physical growth or proxy measures such as poverty. In this paper we aim to directly estimate the number of children in LMICs who would be reported by their caregivers to show low cognitive and/or socioemotional development.The present paper uses Early Childhood Development Index (ECDI) data collected between 2005 and 2015 from 99,222 3- and 4-y-old children living in 35 LMICs as part of the Multiple Indicator Cluster Survey (MICS) and Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS) programs. First, we estimate the prevalence of low cognitive and/or socioemotional ECDI scores within our MICS/DHS sample. Next, we test a series of ordinary least squares regression models predicting low ECDI scores across our MICS/DHS sample countries based on country-level data from the Human Development Index (HDI) and the Nutrition Impact Model Study. We use cross-validation to select the model with the best predictive validity. We then apply this model to all LMICs to generate country-level estimates of the prevalence of low ECDI scores globally, as well as confidence intervals around these estimates. In the pooled MICS and DHS sample, 14.6% of children had low ECDI scores in the cognitive domain, 26.2% had low socioemotional scores, and 36.8% performed poorly in either or both domains. Country-level prevalence of low cognitive and/or socioemotional scores on the ECDI was best represented by a model using the HDI as a predictor. Applying this model to all LMICs, we estimate that 80.8 million children ages 3 and 4 y (95% CI 48.1 million, 113.6 million) in LMICs experienced low cognitive and/or socioemotional development in 2010, with the largest number of affected children in sub-Saharan Africa (29.4.1 million; 43.8% of children ages 3 and 4 y), followed by South Asia (27.7 million; 37.7%) and the East Asia and Pacific region (15.1 million; 25.9%). Positive associations were found between low development scores and stunting, poverty, male sex, rural residence, and lack of cognitive stimulation. Additional research using more detailed developmental assessments across a larger number of LMICs is needed to address the limitations of the present study.The number of children globally failing to reach their developmental potential remains large. Additional research is needed to identify the specific causes of poor developmental outcomes in diverse settings, as well as potential context-specific interventions that might promote children's early cognitive and socioemotional well-being

Early Childhood Development and Schooling Attainment: Longitudinal Evidence from British, Finnish and Philippine Birth Cohorts

Background While recent literature has highlighted the importance of early childhood development for later life outcomes, comparatively little is known regarding the relative importance of early physical and cognitive development in predicting educational attainment cross-culturally. Methods We used prospective data from three birth cohorts: the Northern Finland Birth Cohort of 1986 (NFBC1986), the 1970 British Cohort Study (BCS1970), and the Cebu Longitudinal Health and Nutrition Survey of 1983 (CLHNS) to assess the association of height-for-age z-score (HAZ) and cognitive development measured prior to age 8 with schooling attainment. Multivariate linear regression models were used to estimate baseline and adjusted associations. Results Both physical and cognitive development were highly predictive of adult educational attainment conditional on parental characteristics. The largest positive associations between physical development and schooling were found in the CLHNS (β = 0.53, 95%-CI: [0.32, 0.74]) with substantially smaller associations in the BCS1970 (β = 0.10, 95% CI [0.04, 0.16]) and the NFBC1986 (β = 0.06, 95% CI [-0.05, 0.16]). Strong associations between cognitive development and educational attainment were found for all three cohorts (NFBC1986: β = 0.22, 95%-CI: [0.12, 0.31], BCS1970: β = 0.58, 95%-CI: [0.52, 0.64], CLHNS: β = 1.08, 95%-CI: [0.88, 1.27]). Models jointly estimating educational associations of physical and cognitive development demonstrated weaker associations for physical development and minimal changes for cognitive development. Conclusion The results indicate that although physical and cognitive early development are both important predictors of educational attainment, cognitive development appears to play a particularly important role. The large degree of heterogeneity in the observed effect sizes suggest that the importance of early life physical growth and cognitive development is highly dependent on socioeconomic and institutional contexts

Multidimensional characterization of global food supply from 1961 to 2013

Food systems are increasingly globalized and interdependent, and diets around the world are changing. To characterize national food supplies and how they have changed can inform food policies that ensure national food security, support access to healthy diets and enhance environmental sustainability. Here we analysed data for 171 countries on the availability of 18 food groups from the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization to identify and track multidimensional food supply patterns from 1961 to 2013. Four predominant food-group combinations were identified that explained almost 90% of the cross-country variance in food supply: animal source and sugar, vegetable, starchy root and fruit, and seafood and oilcrops. South Korea, China and Taiwan experienced the largest changes in food supply over the past five decades, with animal source foods and sugar, vegetables and seafood and oilcrops all becoming more abundant components of the food supply. In contrast, in many Western countries the supply of animal source foods and sugar declined. Meanwhile, there was remarkably little change in the food supply in countries in the sub-Saharan Africa region. These changes led to a partial global convergence in the national supply of animal source foods and sugar, and a divergence in those of vegetables and of seafood and oilcrops. Our analysis generated a novel characterization of food supply that highlights the interdependence of multiple food types in national food systems. A better understanding of how these patterns have evolved and will continue to change is needed to support the delivery of healthy and sustainable food system policies

1. The fraction of cancer attributable to lifestyle and environmental factors in the UK in 2010: Introduction

The overall objective of the study is to estimate the percentage of cancers (excluding non-melanoma skin cancer) in the UK in 2010 that were the result of exposure to 14 major lifestyle, dietary and environmental risk factors: tobacco, alcohol, four elements of diet (consumption of meat, fruit and vegetables, fibre and salt), overweight, lack of physical exercise, occupation, infections, radiation (ionising and solar), use of hormones and reproductive history (breast feeding). The number of new cases attributable to suboptimal exposure levels in the past, relative to a theoretical optimum exposure distribution, is evaluated. For most of the exposures, the attributable fraction was calculated based on the distribution of exposure prevalence (around 2000), the difference from the theoretical optimum (by age group and sex) and the relative risk per unit difference. For tobacco smoking, the method developed by Peto et al (1992) was used, which relies on the ratio between observed incidence of lung cancer in smokers and that in non-smokers, to calibrate the risk. This article outlines the structure of the supplement – a section for each of the 14 exposures, followed by a Summary chapter, which considers the relative contributions of each factor to the total number of cancers diagnosed in the UK in 2010 that were, in theory, avoidable

Chemical Characterization and Source Apportionment of Household Fine Particulate Matter in Rural, Peri-urban, and Urban West Africa

Household air pollution in sub-Saharan Africa and other developing regions is an important cause of disease burden. Little is known about the chemical composition and sources of household air pollution in sub-Saharan Africa, and how they differ between rural and urban homes. We analyzed the chemical composition and sources of fine particles (PM2.5) in household cooking areas of multiple neighborhoods in Accra, Ghana, and in peri-urban (Banjul) and rural (Basse) areas in The Gambia. In Accra, biomass burning accounted for 39–62% of total PM2.5 mass in the cooking area in different neighborhoods; the absolute contributions were 10–45 μg/m3. Road dust and vehicle emissions comprised 12–33% of PM2.5 mass. Solid waste burning was also a significant contributor to household PM2.5 in a low-income neighborhood but not for those living in better-off areas. In Banjul and Basse, biomass burning was the single dominant source of cooking-area PM2.5, accounting for 74–87% of its total mass; the relative and absolute contributions of biomass smoke to PM2.5 mass were larger in households that used firewood than in those using charcoal, reaching as high as 463 μg/m3 in Basse homes that used firewood for cooking. Our findings demonstrate the need for policies that enhance access to cleaner fuels in both rural and urban areas, and for controlling traffic emissions in cities in sub-Saharan Africa

Diabetes prevalence and diagnosis in US states: analysis of health surveys

This is an Open Access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution Licens

National, regional, and global trends in body-mass index since 1980: systematic analysis of health examination surveys and epidemiological studies with 960 country-years and 9·1 million participants.

Excess bodyweight is a major public health concern. However, few worldwide comparative analyses of long-term trends of body-mass index (BMI) have been done, and none have used recent national health examination surveys. We estimated worldwide trends in population mean BMI. We estimated trends and their uncertainties of mean BMI for adults 20 years and older in 199 countries and territories. We obtained data from published and unpublished health examination surveys and epidemiological studies (960 country-years and 9·1 million participants). For each sex, we used a Bayesian hierarchical model to estimate mean BMI by age, country, and year, accounting for whether a study was nationally representative. Between 1980 and 2008, mean BMI worldwide increased by 0·4 kg/m(2) per decade (95% uncertainty interval 0·2-0·6, posterior probability of being a true increase >0·999) for men and 0·5 kg/m(2) per decade (0·3-0·7, posterior probability >0·999) for women. National BMI change for women ranged from non-significant decreases in 19 countries to increases of more than 2·0 kg/m(2) per decade (posterior probabilities >0·99) in nine countries in Oceania. Male BMI increased in all but eight countries, by more than 2 kg/m(2) per decade in Nauru and Cook Islands (posterior probabilities >0·999). Male and female BMIs in 2008 were highest in some Oceania countries, reaching 33·9 kg/m(2) (32·8-35·0) for men and 35·0 kg/m(2) (33·6-36·3) for women in Nauru. Female BMI was lowest in Bangladesh (20·5 kg/m(2), 19·8-21·3) and male BMI in Democratic Republic of the Congo 19·9 kg/m(2) (18·2-21·5), with BMI less than 21·5 kg/m(2) for both sexes in a few countries in sub-Saharan Africa, and east, south, and southeast Asia. The USA had the highest BMI of high-income countries. In 2008, an estimated 1·46 billion adults (1·41-1·51 billion) worldwide had BMI of 25 kg/m(2) or greater, of these 205 million men (193-217 million) and 297 million women (280-315 million) were obese. Globally, mean BMI has increased since 1980. The trends since 1980, and mean population BMI in 2008, varied substantially between nations. Interventions and policies that can curb or reverse the increase, and mitigate the health effects of high BMI by targeting its metabolic mediators, are needed in most countries. Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation and WHO

Self-reported use of tobacco products in nine rural INDEPTH Health and Demographic Surveillance Systems in Asia

BACKGROUND: Tobacco use is the most preventable cause of premature death and disability. Even though tobacco use is common in many Asian countries, reliable and comparable data on the burden imposed by tobacco use in this region are sparse, and surveillance systems to track trends are in their infancy. OBJECTIVE: To assess and compare the prevalence of tobacco use and its associated factors in nine selected rural sites in five Asian countries. METHODS: Tobacco use among 9,208 men and 9,221 women aged 25-64 years in nine Health and Demographic Surveillance System (HDSS) sites in five Asian countries of the INDEPTH Network were examined in 2005 as part of a broader survey of the major chronic non-communicable disease risk factors. All sites used a standardised protocol based on the WHO STEPS approach to risk factor surveillance; expanded questions of local relevance, including chewing tobacco, were also included. Multivariable logistic regression was used to assess demographic factors associated with tobacco use. RESULTS: Tobacco use, whether smoked or chewed, was common across all sites with some notable variations. More than 50% of men smoked daily; this applied to almost all age groups. Few women smoked daily in any of the sites. However, women were more likely to chew tobacco than men in all sites except Vadu in India. Tobacco use in men began in late adolescence in most of the sites and the number of cigarettes smoked daily ranged from three to 15. Use of both forms of tobacco, smoked and chewed, was associated with age, gender and education. Men were more likely to smoke compared to women, smoking increased with age in the four sites in Bangladesh but not in other sites and with low level of education in all the sites. CONCLUSION: The prevalence of tobacco use, regardless of the type of tobacco, was high among men in all of these rural populations with tobacco use started during adolescence in all HDSS sites. Innovative communication strategies for behaviour change targeting adolescents in schools and adult men and women at work or at home, may create a mass awareness about adverse health consequences of tobacco smoking or chewing tobacco. Such efforts, to be effective, however, need to be supported by strong legislation and leadership. Only four of the five countries involved in this multi-site study have ratified the Framework Convention on Tobacco Control, and even where it has been ratified, implementation is uneven.Supplement: 1</p