Rockfall Hazard Analysis at Small Scale: A Numerical Study for the Estimation of Representative Slope Parameters

The identification of rockfall-affected areas depends on a large number of stochastic variables influencing both triggering and propagation phases. Therefore, rockfall hazard assessment presents huge uncertainties linked to the various scales of analysis. At the small scale (e.g. valley scale), a quick evaluation of rockfall hazard zones is generally required in order to highlight the most critical situations where more detailed analyses should be carried out. The Cone Method (Jaboyedoff and Labiouse 2011), recently implemented in the QPROTO plugin for QGIS, allows to reach this goal with simplified geometrical considerations. In a 3D analysis, the energy line angle and the lateral spreading angle α define a cone of propagation whose apex is located in the rockfall source point. The most significant issue in using the plugin is the evaluation of these angles, which must be defined by the users to consider all the rockfall dissipative processes included in the energy line method (Evans and Hungr 1993). In this paper a study concerning the influence of slope properties (forest coverage and slope inclination) and block characteristics (shape and volume) is proposed, in order to provide to the users of the plugin a preliminary dataset of calibrated angles

Structural mapping in statistical word problems: A relational reasoning approach to Bayesian inference

Presenting natural frequencies facilitates Bayesian inferences relative to using percentages. Nevertheless, many people, including highly educated and skilled reasoners, still fail to provide Bayesian responses to these computationally simple problems. We show that the complexity of relational reasoning (e.g., the structural mapping between the presented and requested relations) can help explain the remaining difficulties. With a non-Bayesian inference that required identical arithmetic but afforded a more direct structural mapping, performance was universally high. Furthermore, reducing the relational demands of the task through questions that directed reasoners to use the presented statistics, as compared with questions that prompted the representation of a second, similar sample, also significantly improved reasoning. Distinct error patterns were also observed between these presented- and similar-sample scenarios, which suggested differences in relational-reasoning strategies. On the other hand, while higher numeracy was associated with better Bayesian reasoning, higher-numerate reasoners were not immune to the relational complexity of the task. Together, these findings validate the relational-reasoning view of Bayesian problem solving and highlight the importance of considering not only the presented task structure, but also the complexity of the structural alignment between the presented and requested relations

Diel turbidity cycles in a headwater stream: evidence of nocturnal bioturbation?

Purpose: A small number of recent studies have linked daily cycles in stream turbidity to nocturnal bioturbation by aquatic fauna, principally crayfish, and demonstrated this process can significantly impact upon water quality under baseflow conditions. Adding to this limited body of research, we use high-resolution water quality monitoring data to investigate evidence of diel turbidity cycles in a lowland, headwater stream with a known signal crayfish (Pacifastacus leniusculus) population and explore a range of potential causal mechanisms. Materials and methods: Automatic bankside monitoring stations measured turbidity and other water quality parameters at 30-min resolution at three locations on the River Blackwater, Norfolk, UK during 2013. Specifically, we focused on two 20-day periods of baseflow conditions during January and April 2013 which displayed turbidity trends typical of winter and spring seasons, respectively. The turbidity time-series, which were smoothed with 6.5 hour Savitzky-Golay filters to highlight diel trends, were correlated against temperature, stage, dissolved oxygen and pH to assess the importance of abiotic influences on turbidity. Turbidity was also calibrated against suspended particulate matter (SPM) over a wide range of values via linear regression. Results and discussion: Pronounced diel turbidity cycles were found at two of the three sites under baseflow conditions during April. Spring night-time turbidity values consistently peaked between 21:00 and 04:00 with values increasing by ~10 nephelometric turbidity units (NTU) compared with the lowest recorded daytime values which occurred between 10:00 and 14:00. This translated into statistically significant increases in median midnight SPM concentration of up to 76% compared with midday, with night-time (18:00 – 05:30) SPM loads also up to 30% higher than that recorded during the daytime (06:00 – 17:30). Relating turbidity to other water quality parameters exhibiting diel cycles revealed there to be neither any correlation that might indicate a causal link, nor any obvious mechanistic connections to explain the temporal turbidity trends. Diel turbidity cycles were less prominent at all sites during the winter. Conclusions: Considering the seasonality and timing of elevated turbidity, visual observations of crayfish activity, and an absence of mechanistic connections with other water quality parameters, the results presented here are consistent with the hypothesis that nocturnal bioturbation is responsible for generating diel turbidity cycles under baseflow conditions in headwater streams. However, further research in a variety of fluvial environments is required to better assess the spatial extent, importance and causal mechanisms of this phenomenon

Quantum Control at the Boundary

We present a scheme for controlling the state of a quantum system by modifying the boundary conditions. This constitutes an infinite-dimensional control problem. We provide conditions for the existence of solutions of the dynamics and prove that this system is approximately controllable

Neighbourhood, Route and Workplace-Related Environmental Characteristics Predict Adults' Mode of Travel to Work

Commuting provides opportunities for regular physical activity which can reduce the risk of chronic disease. Commuters' mode of travel may be shaped by their environment, but understanding of which specific environmental characteristics are most important and might form targets for intervention is limited. This study investigated associations between mode choice and a range of objectively assessed environmental characteristics.Participants in the Commuting and Health in Cambridge study reported where they lived and worked, their usual mode of travel to work and a variety of socio-demographic characteristics. Using geographic information system (GIS) software, 30 exposure variables were produced capturing characteristics of areas around participants' homes and workplaces and their shortest modelled routes to work. Associations between usual mode of travel to work and personal and environmental characteristics were investigated using multinomial logistic regression.Of the 1124 respondents, 50% reported cycling or walking as their usual mode of travel to work. In adjusted analyses, home-work distance was strongly associated with mode choice, particularly for walking. Lower odds of walking or cycling rather than driving were associated with a less frequent bus service (highest versus lowest tertile: walking OR 0.61 [95% CI 0.20–1.85]; cycling OR 0.43 [95% CI 0.23–0.83]), low street connectivity (OR 0.22, [0.07–0.67]; OR 0.48 [0.26–0.90]) and free car parking at work (OR 0.24 [0.10–0.59]; OR 0.55 [0.32–0.95]). Participants were less likely to cycle if they had access to fewer destinations (leisure facilities, shops and schools) close to work (OR 0.36 [0.21–0.62]) and a railway station further from home (OR 0.53 [0.30–0.93]). Covariates strongly predicted travel mode (pseudo r-squared 0.74).Potentially modifiable environmental characteristics, including workplace car parking, street connectivity and access to public transport, are associated with travel mode choice, and could be addressed as part of transport policy and infrastructural interventions to promote active commuting

Agreement between an online dietary assessment tool (myfood24) and an interviewer-administered 24-h dietary recall in British adolescents aged 11–18 years

myfood24 Is an online 24-h dietary assessment tool developed for use among British adolescents and adults. Limited information is available regarding the validity of using new technology in assessing nutritional intake among adolescents. Thus, a relative validation of myfood24 against a face-to-face interviewer-administered 24-h multiple-pass recall (MPR) was conducted among seventy-five British adolescents aged 11–18 years. Participants were asked to complete myfood24 and an interviewer-administered MPR on the same day for 2 non-consecutive days at school. Total energy intake (EI) and nutrients recorded by the two methods were compared using intraclass correlation coefficients (ICC), Bland–Altman plots (using between and within-individual information) and weighted κ to assess the agreement. Energy, macronutrients and other reported nutrients from myfood24 demonstrated strong agreement with the interview MPR data, and ICC ranged from 0·46 for Na to 0·88 for EI. There was no significant bias between the two methods for EI, macronutrients and most reported nutrients. The mean difference between myfood24 and the interviewer-administered MPR for EI was −230 kJ (−55 kcal) (95 % CI −490, 30 kJ (−117, 7 kcal); P=0·4) with limits of agreement ranging between 39 % (3336 kJ (−797 kcal)) lower and 34 % (2874 kJ (687 kcal)) higher than the interviewer-administered MPR. There was good agreement in terms of classifying adolescents into tertiles of EI (κ w =0·64). The agreement between day 1 and day 2 was as good for myfood24 as for the interviewer-administered MPR, reflecting the reliability of myfood24. myfood24 Has the potential to collect dietary data of comparable quality with that of an interviewer-administered MPR

Exact Results and Holography of Wilson Loops in N=2 Superconformal (Quiver) Gauge Theories

Using localization, matrix model and saddle-point techniques, we determine exact behavior of circular Wilson loop in N=2 superconformal (quiver) gauge theories. Focusing at planar and large `t Hooft couling limits, we compare its asymptotic behavior with well-known exponential growth of Wilson loop in N=4 super Yang-Mills theory. For theory with gauge group SU(N) coupled to 2N fundamental hypermultiplets, we find that Wilson loop exhibits non-exponential growth -- at most, it can grow a power of `t Hooft coupling. For theory with gauge group SU(N) x SU(N) and bifundamental hypermultiplets, there are two Wilson loops associated with two gauge groups. We find Wilson loop in untwisted sector grows exponentially large as in N=4 super Yang-Mills theory. We then find Wilson loop in twisted sector exhibits non-analytic behavior with respect to difference of two `t Hooft coupling constants. By letting one gauge coupling constant hierarchically larger/smaller than the other, we show that Wilson loops in the second type theory interpolate to Wilson loop in the first type theory. We infer implications of these findings from holographic dual description in terms of minimal surface of dual string worldsheet. We suggest intuitive interpretation that in both type theories holographic dual background must involve string scale geometry even at planar and large `t Hooft coupling limit and that new results found in the gauge theory side are attributable to worldsheet instantons and infinite resummation therein. Our interpretation also indicate that holographic dual of these gauge theories is provided by certain non-critical string theories.Comment: 52 pages, 7 figures v2. more figures embedded v3. minor stylistic changes, v4. published versio

Income effects, cost damping and the value of time: theoretical properties embedded within practical travel choice models

Mackie et al. (Values of travel time savings in the UK. Report to Department for Transport. Institute for Transport Studies, University of Leeds & John Bates Services, Leeds and Abingdon, 2003) proposed an identity relating the value of time (VoT) for commute and leisure travel to income and travel cost, reporting the prevalence of ‘cost damping’ (i.e. the phenomenon where VoT increases as travel cost increases). This identity (or a variant thereof) has been adopted within official methods for estimating VoT in the UK, Switzerland and The Netherlands. The present paper shows that Mackie et al.’s identity: (i) implies linear preferences, not strictly convex preferences as reported by Mackie et al.; (ii) complies with homogeneity and symmetry by construction; (iii) complies with adding-up if and only if VoT is unit elastic with respect to income; (iv) complies with negativity if VoT is unit elastic or greater with respect to income; (v) violates both adding-up and negativity in the case of the 2003 UK national VoT study. We propose alternative identities which comply with adding-up and homogeneity by construction, and offer comparable fit to Mackie et al.’s identity on the UK VoT dataset. We also find that the imposition of adding-up and negativity on Mackie et al.’s identity, through appropriate constraint on model estimation, leads to an increase of around 20% in valuations from the 2003 UK dataset

Generation and characterisation of Friedreich ataxia YG8R mouse fibroblast and neural stem cell models

This article has been made available through the Brunel Open Access Publishing Fund.Background: Friedreich ataxia (FRDA) is an autosomal recessive neurodegenerative disease caused by GAA repeat expansion in the first intron of the FXN gene, which encodes frataxin, an essential mitochondrial protein. To further characterise the molecular abnormalities associated with FRDA pathogenesis and to hasten drug screening, the development and use of animal and cellular models is considered essential. Studies of lower organisms have already contributed to understanding FRDA disease pathology, but mammalian cells are more related to FRDA patient cells in physiological terms. Methodology/Principal Findings: We have generated fibroblast cells and neural stem cells (NSCs) from control Y47R mice (9 GAA repeats) and GAA repeat expansion YG8R mice (190+120 GAA repeats). We then differentiated the NSCs in to neurons, oligodendrocytes and astrocytes as confirmed by immunocytochemical analysis of cell specific markers. The three YG8R mouse cell types (fibroblasts, NSCs and differentiated NSCs) exhibit GAA repeat stability, together with reduced expression of frataxin and reduced aconitase activity compared to control Y47R cells. Furthermore, YG8R cells also show increased sensitivity to oxidative stress and downregulation of Pgc-1α and antioxidant gene expression levels, especially Sod2. We also analysed various DNA mismatch repair (MMR) gene expression levels and found that YG8R cells displayed significant reduction in expression of several MMR genes, which may contribute to the GAA repeat stability. Conclusions/Significance: We describe the first fibroblast and NSC models from YG8R FRDA mice and we confirm that the NSCs can be differentiated into neurons and glia. These novel FRDA mouse cell models, which exhibit a FRDA-like cellular and molecular phenotype, will be valuable resources to further study FRDA molecular pathogenesis. They will also provide very useful tools for preclinical testing of frataxin-increasing compounds for FRDA drug therapy, for gene therapy, and as a source of cells for cell therapy testing in FRDA mice. © 2014 Sandi et al

Validation of the Oxford WebQ online 24-hour dietary questionnaire using biomarkers

Oxford WebQ is an online dietary questionnaire covering 24 hours, appropriate for repeated administration in large-scale prospective studies including UK Biobank and the Million Women Study. We compared performance of the Oxford WebQ and a traditional interviewer-administered multi-pass 24-hour recall against biomarkers for protein, potassium and total sugar intake, and total energy expenditure estimated by accelerometry. 160 participants were recruited between 2014 and 2016 in London, UK, and measured at 3 non-consecutive time-points. The measurement error model simultaneously compared all 3 methods. Attenuation factors for protein, potassium, sugars and total energy intake estimated by the mean of 2 Oxford WebQs were 0.37, 0.42, 0.45, and 0.31 respectively, with performance improving incrementally for the mean of more measures. Correlation between the mean of 2 Oxford WebQs and estimated true intakes, reflecting attenuation when intake is categorised or ranked, was 0.47, 0.39, 0.40, and 0.38 respectively, also improving with repeated administration. These were similar to the more administratively burdensome interviewer-based recall. Using objective biomarkers as the standard, Oxford WebQ performs well across key nutrients in comparison with more administratively burdensome interviewer-based 24-hour recalls. Attenuation improves when the average is taken over repeated administration, reducing measurement error bias in assessment of diet-disease associations