Long term forecasting of natural gas production

Natural gas is an important energy source for power generation, a chemical feedstock and residential usage. It is important to analyse the future production of conventional and unconventional natural gas. Analysis of the literature determined conventional URR estimates of 10,700-18,300. EJ, and the unconventional gas URR estimates were determined to be 4250-11,000. EJ. Six scenarios were assumed, with three static where demand and supply do not interact and three dynamic where it does. The projections indicate that world natural gas production will peak between 2025 and 2066 at 140-217. EJ/y (133-206. tcf/y). Natural gas resources are more abundant than some of the literature indicates. © 2011 Elsevier Ltd

Peak oil: Testing hubbert's curve via theoretical modeling

A theoretical model of conventional oil production has been developed. The model does not assume Hubbert's bell curve, an asymmetric bell curve, or a reserve-to-production ratio method is correct, and does not use oil production data as an input. The theoretical model is in close agreement with actual production data until the 1979 oil crisis, with an R 2 value of greater than 0.98. Whilst the theoretical model indicates that an ideal production curve is slightly asymmetric, which differs from Hubbert's curve, the ideal model compares well with the Hubbert model, with R 2 values in excess of 0.95. Amending the theoretical model to take into account the 1979 oil crisis, and assuming the ultimately recoverable resources are in the range of 2-3 trillion barrels, the amended model predicts conventional oil production to peak between 2010 and 2025. The amended model, for the case when the ultimately recoverable resources is 2.2 trillion barrels, indicates that oil production peaks in 2013. © 2008 International Association for Mathematical Geology

Beyond theory:an examination of lean new product introduction practices in the UK

Interest is growing around the application of lean techniques to new product introduction (NPI). Although a relatively emergent topic compared with the application of ‘lean’ within the factory, since 2000 there has been an exponential rise in the literature on this subject. However, much of this work focuses on describing and extolling the virtues of the ‘Toyota approach’ to design. Therefore, by way of a stock take for the UK, the present authors' research has set out to understand how well lean product design practices have been adopted by leading manufacturers. This has been achieved by carrying out in-depth case studies with three carefully selected manufacturers of complex engineered products. This paper describes these studies, the detailed results and subsequent findings, and concludes that both the awareness and adoption of practices is generally embryonic and far removed from the theory advocated in the literature

The expression of pre- and postcopulatory sexually selected traits reflects levels of dietary stress in guppies

Environmental and ecological conditions can shape the evolution of life history traits in many animals. Among such factors, food or nutrition availability can play an important evolutionary role in moderating an animal\u27s life history traits, particularly sexually selected traits. Here, we test whether diet quantity and/or composition in the form of omega-3 long chain polyunsaturated fatty acids (here termed \u27n3LC\u27) influence the expression of pre- and postcopulatory traits in the guppy (Poecilia reticulata), a livebearing poeciliid fish. We assigned males haphazardly to one of two experimental diets supplemented with n3LC, and each of these diet treatments was further divided into two diet \u27quantity\u27 treatments. Our experimental design therefore explored the main and interacting effects of two factors (n3LC content and diet quantity) on the expression of precopulatory (sexual behaviour and sexual ornamentation, including the size, number and spectral properties of colour spots) and postcopulatory (the velocity, viability, number and length of sperm) sexually selected traits. Our study revealed that diet quantity had significant effects on most of the pre- and postcopulatory traits, while n3LC manipulation had a significant effect on sperm traits and in particular on sperm viability. Our analyses also revealed interacting effects of diet quantity and n3LC levels on courtship displays, and the area of orange and iridescent colour spots in the males\u27 colour patterns. We also confirmed that our dietary manipulations of n3LC resulted in the differential uptake of n3LC in body and testes tissues in the different n3LC groups. This study reveals the effects of diet quantity and n3LC on behavioural, ornamental and ejaculate traits in P. reticulata and underscores the likely role that diet plays in maintaining the high variability in these condition-dependent sexual traits

Fluctuations and irreversibility: An experimental demonstration of a second-law-like theorem using a colloidal particle held in an optical trap

The puzzle of how time-reversible microscopic equations of mechanics lead to the time-irreversible macroscopic equations of thermodynamics has been a paradox since the days of Boltzmann. Boltzmann simply sidestepped this enigma by stating “as soon as one looks at bodies of such small dimension that they contain only very few molecules, the validity of this theorem [the second law of thermodynamics and its description of irreversibility] must cease.” Today we can state that the transient fluctuation theorem (TFT) of Evans and Searles is a generalized, second-law-like theorem that bridges the microscopic and macroscopic domains and links the time-reversible and irreversible descriptions. We apply this theorem to a colloidal particle in an optical trap. For the first time, we demonstrate the TFT in an experiment and show quantitative agreement with Langevin dynamics

Cellular transfer and AFM imaging of cancer cells using Bioimprint

A technique for permanently capturing a replica impression of biological cells has been developed to facilitate analysis using nanometer resolution imaging tools, namely the atomic force microscope (AFM). The method, termed Bioimprint™, creates a permanent cell 'footprint' in a non-biohazardous Poly (dimethylsiloxane) (PDMS) polymer composite. The transfer of nanometer scale biological information is presented as an alternative imaging technique at a resolution beyond that of optical microscopy. By transferring cell topology into a rigid medium more suited for AFM imaging, many of the limitations associated with scanning of biological specimens can be overcome. Potential for this technique is demonstrated by analyzing Bioimprint™ replicas created from human endometrial cancer cells. The high resolution transfer of this process is further detailed by imaging membrane morphological structures consistent with exocytosis. The integration of soft lithography to replicate biological materials presents an enhanced method for the study of biological systems at the nanoscale

TLR-mediated activation of Waldenström macroglobulinemia B cells reveals an uncoupling from plasma cell differentiation

Waldenstr¨om macroglobulinemia (WM) is a rare malignancy in which clonal B cells infiltrate the bone marrow and give rise to a smaller compartment of neoplastic plasma cells that secrete monoclonal immunoglobulin M paraprotein. Recent studies into underlying mutations in WM have enabled a much greater insight into the pathogenesis of this lymphoma. However, there is considerably less characterization of the way in which WM B cells differentiate and how they respond to immune stimuli. In this study, we assess WM B-cell differentiation using an established in vitro model system. Using T-cell–dependent conditions, we obtained CD1381 plasma cells from WM samples with a frequency similar to experiments performed with B cells from normal donors. Unexpectedly, a proportion of the WM B cells failed to upregulate CD38, a surface marker that is normally associated with plasmablast transition and maintained as the cells proceed with differentiation. In normal B cells, concomitant Toll-like receptor 7 (TLR7) activation and B-cell receptor cross-linking drives proliferation, followed by differentiation at similar efficiency to CD40-mediated stimulation. In contrast, we found that, upon stimulation with TLR7 agonist R848, WM B cells failed to execute the appropriate changes in transcriptional regulators, identifying an uncoupling of TLR signaling from the plasma cell differentiation program. Provision of CD40L was sufficient to overcome this defect. Thus, the limited clonotypic WM plasma cell differentiation observed in vivo may result from a strict requirement for integrated activation

Duality relations for the ASEP conditioned on a low current

We consider the asymmetric simple exclusion process (ASEP) on a finite lattice with periodic boundary conditions, conditioned to carry an atypically low current. For an infinite discrete set of currents, parametrized by the driving strength $s_K$, $K \geq 1$, we prove duality relations which arise from the quantum algebra $U_q[\mathfrak{gl}(2)]$ symmetry of the generator of the process with reflecting boundary conditions. Using these duality relations we prove on microscopic level a travelling-wave property of the conditioned process for a family of shock-antishock measures for $N>K$ particles: If the initial measure is a member of this family with $K$ microscopic shocks at positions $(x_1,\dots,x_K)$, then the measure at any time $t>0$ of the process with driving strength $s_K$ is a convex combination of such measures with shocks at positions $(y_1,\dots,y_K)$. which can be expressed in terms of $K$-particle transition probabilities of the conditioned ASEP with driving strength $s_N$.Comment: 26 page

A rarefaction-tracking method for hyperbolic conservation laws

We present a numerical method for scalar conservation laws in one space dimension. The solution is approximated by local similarity solutions. While many commonly used approaches are based on shocks, the presented method uses rarefaction and compression waves. The solution is represented by particles that carry function values and move according to the method of characteristics. Between two neighboring particles, an interpolation is defined by an analytical similarity solution of the conservation law. An interaction of particles represents a collision of characteristics. The resulting shock is resolved by merging particles so that the total area under the function is conserved. The method is variation diminishing, nevertheless, it has no numerical dissipation away from shocks. Although shocks are not explicitly tracked, they can be located accurately. We present numerical examples, and outline specific applications and extensions of the approach.Comment: 21 pages, 7 figures. Similarity 2008 conference proceeding